Chicago White Sox

Also, I don’t buy for a second that Marcus Stroman is stopping the Yankees from adding Dylan Cease. While the national media does typically overrate their prospects, there is still a lot to like there and they offer us much more ceiling than the Orioles. TBH, every time I dive deep into their top 10 or so guys, the more I like them more than the second tier stuff the O’s have to offer.

I’m really worried for you guys. If Elias keeps hugging and doesn’t add a quality SP, I think there is real risk of the O’s being the odd man out of the AL playoff race if they experience any sort of bad luck (injury, regression, etc). Hopefully he comes to his senses and adds a high end starter, but it doesn’t seem like he is a very reasonable person. Admittedly he’s very good at identifying & developing young talent, but he seems to lack the killer instinct that GMs who are serious about winning championships typically have.

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Get’s current asking price has to be higher than most here are thinking. I’m still optimistic conversations get more serious in the coming weeks.

Is this a Padres catch all thread now?

BA released their pre-season list today. Only two White Sox made the list in Montgomery (#15) & Schultz (#40). Nastrini & Ramos were included on the “Next 15” list, which is nice to see although I had hoped Ramos made the cut. Quero has slipped from roughly 70th on their 2023 mid-season list to somewhere beyond the top 115. He did receive some votes but not enough to make the cut. Eder and Jacob Gonzalez also received top 100 votes. Looks like Haber may have taken a position over at BA.

Terms unknown at this time, but good to see other AL East teams outside of BAL & NYY continuing to add.

I would 100% do that trade. If it’s Wagner as the 4th piece, it comes down to what your scouts think of the three main prospects and whether the upside of waiting is more than downside of underperformance or injury. I just don’t see the Orioles giving up Westburg plus three other guys cracking top 10 lists of the best system in baseball.

I think Horvath has significantly more value than Wagner. Some outlets have Horvath as top 10 prospect in this system.

I told the Hangout about a month ago that I personally would treat Ortiz as a guy in the 90 to 100 range and was absolutely ridiculed by their posters. It turns I wasn’t that far off as it appears he’s in the 101 to 115 range here and not included in some other lists.

This is not how trades work unfortunately. The reality is that prospects reflect a range of potential outcomes. If the probability of Westburg becoming a star were substantially higher, then his value also goes up a ton and he eventually becomes unattainable or you’re not getting a lot else in a package. What you are suggesting here seems like two 65 FV pitching prospects which would be worth considerably more than two years of Cease coming his latest season. And I’m not even suggesting we make this trade, just saying that there is an argument to be made it would represent a fair return. That’s even more true if our scouts believe Beaver & McDermott are ascending prospects who will be worth considerably more 12 months from now. Personally, I’d like to see more ceiling and would prefer concentrating value into two players rather than three to make that happen. But if that requires waiting until the deadline, I’m not yet sure that’s a risk I’d want to take.

Let’s just say Cease is worth $60M in projected surplus value. What do we think someone like Westburg is worth? Let’s just keep this simple and say it’s a 10% chance he’s a 4 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 2.5 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 1 win player, and a 30% chance he’s a complete bust. You’re looking at a mean projection of 1.45 wins per year. At a cost of $6M per win (discounted for several reasons), you’re looking at ~$34M in expected surplus value. Let’s just assume for ease that Beavers & McDermott are worth ~$15M each given they have much higher bust rates and lower ceilings than Westburg. You’re looking at over $60M in expected surplus value from that package. It’s not a sexy return by any means and lacks star potential (short of that best case outcome for Westburg), but if your scouts believe in these guys and feel the bust rates are low, there is plenty of value to be extracted from this type of package. But for a club that has limited opportunities to acquire impact talent due to being a major market team who is afraid to sign stars in free agency, you have to think long & hard about the risk vs. reward of holding Cease until the deadline. It obviously worked with Quintana, but Hahn had already spun off Sale & Eaton for five top 100 prospects plus multiple very high end guys. If Getz fucks this up, it will likely set the franchise back multiple years. I just wish we knew the offers and didn’t have to sift through BS leaks, because I’m still not buying guys like Jones & Hampton alone are untouchable for Dylan Cease, especially in this SP market. And under no circumstance is two quality prospects a ridiculous ask for Cease unless we’re talking about 60+ FV guys. If I had to guess, Getz is still maintaining an aggressive ask and waiting for Snell & Montgomery to sign before dropping it further. And all this “untouchable” talk, at least with the Yankees, is likely Boras driven leaks to make New York look like a threat to sign his clients. All that being said, I remain optimistic that a trade happens before OD with the O’s being the most likely suitor.

I seriously doubt the Sox will go with a bunch of lower level prospects. The headliner will likely be someone who can help by 2025 and I’n guessing they will value proximity to the majors more than other clubs do. For better or worse, the O’s have that in spades. But your point holds true obviously.

Ortiz doesn’t appear to be in BP’s 2022 list. He was on BA’s mid-season list though in the 50’s or 60’s I believe.

I probably would too…just more ceiling with the Yankee’s package. However, if our scouts feel that Beavers can be a league average RF and McDermott a mid-rotation starter then that’s a potentially great return even without a potential impact player in the mix. And for the record, I think Westburg has a very high probability of being to 2 to 2.5 win player for the next six years. How much he can go above that projection is the question and that really comes down to how much of his plus raw power can be tapped into. If he ends up being a 25 HR hitter, then you’re potentially looking at a 4 win player with his broader skillset.

Baltimore isn’t going to give up six prospects for Cease. I also think they are going to be very cautious on giving up a ton of outfielders & pitching. As such, I don’t think you’re getting Beavers & Bradfield. I also don’t think you’re getting both McDermott & Povich. Personally, if Westburg is the main piece they’re offering, then Beavers needs to be included in the deal. I think another top 10ish prospect plus one semi interesting lottery ticket is fair. I’d want McDermott or Horvath as the third piece. The lottery ticket can’t be a total nothing either…ideally a recent LatAm signing sitting in their 20’s. It’s not a stellar package by any means, but I 100% wouldn’t accept anything less than that.

No, he’s around 60. Montgomery is 11 and Quero is like 90. No Ramos.

This is a pretty extreme take IMO.

Why would we want to dump his salary when he makes $3M? And our staff is filled with a bunch of garbage and question marks that lack the ceiling Kopech possesses. Unless he’s a complete clubhouse cancer, they will want to give Bannister a shot to unlock his potential. The stuff is still really good even if it’s regressed some.

We have ourselves a deal

That article is nearly a year old and the defensive concerns are no longer legit. His hit tool is also probably closer to average now. Westburg is a really good prospect, I just don’t see a massive ceiling with him unless he can in fact belt 25 HRs a year and not a ton 2B did that last year.

I would ignore Fangraphs’ evaluation on him.

And after going through BA’s tracker…we’re the only club at the moment.

Wow…zero DR signings so far

The article literally says “Getz’s patience may end up netting him the return he is looking for”.