Chicago White Sox

Building off my previous post, here is my 5/1 roster projection: Lineup: B. Baldwin, RF (S) K. Teel, CA (L) M. Vargas, 3B (R) C. Montgomery, SS (L) M. Murakami, 1B (L) Hayes, LF (R) E. Quero, DH (S) S. Antonacci, 2B (L) Acuna, CF (R) Bench: IF: C. Meidroth (R) IF: L. Sosa (R) OF: E. Pereira (R) OF: A. Benintendi (L) Rotation: S. Smith (R) S. Burke (R) T. McDougal (R) A. Kay (L) D. Martin (R) or E. Fedde (R) Bullpen: CL: S. Dominguez (R) SU: Taylor (R) SU: Leasure (R) MR: S. Newcomb (L) MR: M. Vasil (R) MR: C. Murphy (L) MR: J. Hicks (R) LR: J. Paez (R) IMO, that’s a team that could surprise this year, especially if one of Hagen Smith or Schultz can grab the #5 in the rotation by June or so.

He throws that hard? I had no idea

Regardless of how this OD roster shakes out, I think we should be prepared for Antonacci & McDougal to be in the major league mix as early as 4/16 to 5/1. The addition of McDougal in particular shouldn’t be overlooked as he immediately could change the complexion of the rotation. A young trio of Shane Smith, Burke, & McDougal would be quite exciting and possibly very good. I think the ability for this team to compete if far more possible than some are letting on.

Fully agree with all of this. Chase needs to live up to his AAA hype and fast or could be relegated to reserve infielder status once Antonacci is ready. That being said, Chase was dealing with several injuries last year and it certainly impacted his performance as the season progressed. I expect improvement in terms of both impacting the ball and getting on base next year. His BB rate has significant room for growth and that getting closer to 12% is what will make or break him.

I don’t know in what world Crochet was bringing back Roman Anthony.

It’s not really that crazy when you consider his injury history and the fact that he had one year of SP experience

At what position was he one of the worst at? SS? Chase only had 3 errors at 2B. Meanwhile Sosa had 10 at 2B. Defensively there is no comparison here.

Thanks. Isn’t Borucki on a minor league deal? Feels like if all else is equal, you start the season with Gilbert as your second lefty with Borucki & Eisert waiting in Charlotte. What about Murphy? Given Getz went out and acquired for an actual prospect, feels like they must have plans for him although maybe they want him to start to start in Charlotte and build up some innings.

What are your thoughts on how this bullpen shakes out? I haven’t been able to watch a ton of games, so would love to who has looked good or bad. I assume the battles are mostly down to the 2nd lefty spot and likely one Rule 5 guy spot.

This is a very silly statement.

You continue to make this same argument that ignores everything but power when it comes to the 2B spot. Both Chase & Antonacci are going to get on base at a significantly higher clip and will provide positive defensive value. The overall value equation is likely higher with both of them, especially against RHP where Sosa is simply league average. I don’t your willing to acknowledge how bad Sosa was defensively last head, with 2B being a real challenge for him.

Murray has options and should start the season in AAA. But he’s another guy who can offer some of the RH power off the bench that does Sosa does, but with much more defensive versatility and value.

The thing is Kelenic is on a minor league deal and can simply go to AAA. Forcing him onto the OD roster is not actually protecting him. IMO, I want him down in AAA for a month or two and see how he hits. Call him up when you believe his chances of success are higher and when he’ll have access to regular at-bats. As for the makeup the bench, if you assume CF is Acuna, LF is Benintendi, and DH is Quero (I think him and Andrew split the DH role), that leaves four spots without requiring us carrying a third catcher. Additionally, there are four players without options in Sosa, Mead, Pereira, & Lee plus you have Hill on a two way contract. All the bubble guys are RH hitters and it seems incredibly unlikely we rock a fully RH bench and don’t have at least one more guy to rotate in who bats LF. And while Hill can play a hell of a CF, he gives you no platoon advantage at the spot when paired with Acuna. The same applies for Pereira but without the plus glove there. Given how good of a hitter Baldwin is and his ability to play CF, I just can’t see an argument for not keeping him on this roster from an optimization standpoint. From a protection standpoint, I don’t see a need to protect Hill at all as I think he’d clear waivers and is more of an insurance policy anyways if the young kids don’t work out and/or get hurt. If you keep Sosa (which we will), I don’t see how Mead even gets access to playing time. He’s simply too redundant so putting him on the OD roster won’t help his value. The same applies to Lee but at least there another team’s backup catcher could get injured in May and make him tradable. I do think we should keep Periera given our question marks in the OF, but you can do that while also rostering both Sosa & Baldwin and one of Mead or Lee. I just don’t see the roster crunch that requires Baldwin starting in AAA and that’s before any injuries happen and make this entire debate pointless.

I definitely believe the CF part. I am far more skeptical of the top of the order part. I think he’s clearly in the 8 or 9 hole until he demonstrates some ability to hit MLB pitching and get on base at a reasonable level. Until then, I fully expect Chase & Teel to be our #1 & #2 hitters.

Why though? Who would keep over him?

Has anyone but Levine said the above, especially the top of the order part?

The Sox aren’t uprooting Meidroth yet. The Sox absolutely love the kid and his power (while firmly below average) was compromised last season due to a variety of health issues. That being said, I do think that if Chase isn’t a 100+ wRC+ guy by June, then Antonacci has a real chance of taking the 2B job and pushing Chase to a reserve infielder role. I still love both players and think they are the type of role players a good org like the Dodgers have in the 8 to 11 range of their positional group.

I’d definitely put my money on that outcome vs. the alternative…I just hope it’s because Roch, Colson, & Murakami have forced the issue.

If Murakami performs, I hope the Sox plan to resign him. IMO, we should be in “win now” mode by next season unless a lot of things go wrong. And given that we have zero long term payroll commitments, resigning a 1B shouldn’t be a problem for us (hopefully). I think the more likely outcome is Vargas is eventually traded. But even talking about this hypothetical is a good problem to have.

Vargas needs to have a big year if he wants to hold that spot long-term. I fully expect another leap, but not sure if it will be enough to hold off the eventual impact of Roch.

There is no doubting the Sox should have taken a positional player in hindsight and I’d argue they should have probably done so at the time of the draft. The Sox taking Konner Griffin wasn’t a slam dunk decision at the time though. No doubt he had his fans and some posters here were championing for him, but Smith over him specifically wasn’t necessarily a crazy proposition draft night. Regardless, I think it’s fair to say Smith can turn out to be a really good pitcher while also acknowledging Getz sort of bungled the pick by over-ruling his Scouting Director.

If I’m being honest, both of these projections feel low to me. The Sox pitching staff put up 11.5 fWAR last year. You are basically assuming we get like 5 fWAR total from the rotation and like 3 from the bullpen, which seems super pessimistic when Shane Smith should provide 2+ and Taylor 1+ respectively. I just don’t buy the other four SP’s combining for 3 or less wins and I don’t buy the other seven relievers combining for 2 or less wins. The Opening Day rotation is bad on paper, but there are a fuckton of arms coming and I think Burke is going to blow his projections out of the water with his slider fixed. The bullpen on paper is way better than last year’s and that one combined for 4 wins. I get bullpens are volatile, but can’t accept it getting worse than last year with the additions we have made and further usage of Taylor. My median projection for the broader staff would be closer to 12 wins and I think any reasonable floor is certainly above 8. Your positional projection feels more reasonable to me, but I’m definitely a bit higher than you. Steamer also his this group around 13 wins, but I think they are too low on certain players (Colson, Teel, Baldwin, Sosa, Antonacci) and too high on Chase. I expect the former group to outproduce their projections by 4 or 5 wins in aggregate and Chase to come in a win light. As such, I expect something closer to 17 to 18 wins from this group, which would have been about league average last year.

So you think this team is going to put up about 15 fWAR next year?

It comes down to roster fit. Sosa’s path to playing time is limited because of his defensive shortcomings. Right now, I’m assuming the bulk of his at-bats will be at DH and against LH pitching. That’s just not a huge role. Obviously injury could change that, but even then Antonacci isn’t too far off and will eventually push for a role. Plus the Sox already have Baldwin who is a better option at 3B or 2B. None of this means you should trade him, but it’s hard to see his value going up as a short side platoon DH.

I don’t disagree that the Sox have been elevating his status beyond the typical NRI and obviously have higher hopes for him than me. But I also think people have come to this conclusion that the Sox have soured on Baldwin for reasons unknown.