Chicago White Sox

$90M is super low is my point. I feel very confident that last year was the worst case scenario in terms of payroll given the recent losses and lack of a TV deal to enter the season. And last year we were at about $80M. I think the plan was always to go up some this year without taking on huge long-term dollars. I feel good about the $90M figure being a reasonable, but still conservative figure that protects Jerry’s bottom line in a rebuild year.

Why do you think he’s going to turn into a pumpkin?

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff. Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency. A $90M payroll is literally nothing. We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild). And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars. Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll. I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt. No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

I could see them wanting to move on from Robert if they believe he’s unable to stay healthy, but I don’t think they need to shed his salary to fit Murakami into the budget.

Why?

Schultz as a 50 FV prospect is something. Fully disagree on that. And Paez as our #8 prospect over numerous guys is also something.

You think a dude who posted a 4.25 FIP over hist last 18 starts as a rookie has a ceiling of a “#4 starter”. Like what are we even doing here.

When did he average 3.2 IP per start? Like where are these made up numbers coming from?

Ranked 81 out of 87 for what? Full year FIP? No one is arguing his full year figures were good last year…they were clearly compromised by his first 10 starts when he had a K rate of 6.19 per 9 innings. Based on his minor track record and his first cup of coffee in the majors to end 2024, I don’t find those results to be meaningful at all in terms of projecting future performance. I think he’s much closer to the guy who posted a 4.25 FIP over his next 18 starts and that player does not in fact “stink” vs. other major leaguers. And again, you are attributing all his improvement in swinging strike rate to one start when again that is not true. He was at 9.8% prior to July 12th and had an 11.8% over his final 10 starts. Back out one the one start and he was still at 10.8% over the other nine, which is still meaningful improvement. And why is sequencing just “noise” and not something that can be improved through strategic planning?

He struck out 9 or more batters per 9 innings in nine of 10 starts. He struck out over 11 batters per nine in half of them. This is not one game radically changing the outcome here. Take that game out altogether and he drops from 1st overall to 9th in this period, so still very much elite. You continue to use facts disingenuously and hope people are too lazy to fact check you. I still want to know what caused his K rate to nearly double from his first 10 starts to his 10 starts. If it can’t be improvement or development, then what was it? And how often do random dudes luck into a 12+ K rate per 9 over any random 10 start sample? Show me all the outliers because I didn’t see a single one in the data set I referenced, but sounds like you feel this is commonplace and should be able to easily identify dozens of instances like this.

Again, we are talking about ceiling here…not median outcome. I’d maintain his mostly likely outcome is a solid #4 starter. That being said, he pitched like a #3 starter over his final 18 starts. He posted an elite K rate over his final 10. If he could improve his control while maintaining that K rate, then we’re talking about a legit TOR starter. Do I think that will happen? No I don’t, but the fact he was able to strikeout guys at such a rate implies a higher ceiling than people are letting on.

Yes, which is why his FIP during that stretch was that of a #3 caliber SP and not that of an ace. That being said, I have never argued he performed like a TOR starter or will ever become one. My arguments have been consistent no matter how many times people try to “gotcha” me or move the goalposts: He doesn’t “stink” He pitched better as the season progressed He has a much higher ceiling than people are letting on as evident by his elite K rate in final 10 starts Which of those three points do you disagree with?

He added a cutter and ramped up the use of his sinker at the expense of his 4 seamer.

So he’ll be competing for a rotation spot or was brought on to be the #5 starter?

Wow, love this move. He’s been pretty mediocre for the past few years, but made significant changes to his repertoire last season and the results show. This really strengthens the left-side of the bullpen for us. Still think we should add a legit high leverage guy to the mix.

From July 12th to the end of the season, here were the leaders in K/9 with 40+ IPs pitched. Again, this reflects Burke’s final 10 starts as a rookie: Sean Burke = 12.33 Shohei Ohtani = 12.29 Jacob Misiorowski = 12.05 Dylan Cease = 11.97 Blake Snell = 11.69 Freddy Peralta = 11.68 Brandon Woodruff = 11.51 Paul Skenes = 11.48 Logan Gilbert = 11.23 Sean Manaea = 11.13 To say a rookie who was able to post the highest K/9 in baseball over the final third of the season “doesn’t have much of a ceiling” is absolutely wild to me. The other nine pitchers in this group are some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game…the only guy who even possibility stands out as an outlier is Manaea who completely abandoned his sinker last year and ramped up the usage of his sweeper. @Look at Ray Ray Run - What is your theory on the above figures? How did he go from a terrible K rate to start the season to best in baseball by its end? Obviously it can’t because he got better or developed as the season progressed, that is not possible for rookies or young players, so is it just random performance variance and/or the benefit of getting to face the Guardians one extra time?

Which is why I said this: “and his minor league numbers show a dude with impeccable command”

The point on Thorpe is we don’t know what he is. To say he “stinks” completely ignores his minor league track record & prospect pedigree and over-indexes on his first eight major league starts. He’s obviously got a unique profile with less margin of error when it comes to command, but I’m giving him a much bigger runway than that first cup of coffee with is before making such declarations. He may end up busting, but I liked what I saw from his change up when he was with the Sox and his minor league numbers show a dude with impeccable command and an ability to generate weak contact. I remain cautiously optimistic for now.

Come on man. He literally faced Cleveland, Kansas City, & the Angels in his first 10 starts as well plus the Marlins who were actually a bottom 10 offense per wRC+ (unlike Baltimore as you cited). The difference in team quality between those two samples is minimal. Regardless, you are now suggesting that his K rate doubling in his last 10 starts vs. his first 10 starts is because he faced the Guardians one extra time. You know as well as me that’s absolutely ridiculous and you would normally call out any other poster for suggesting it. Again, the original argument here was whether Burke stinks or not. You said you watched his early starts and that he did not get better as the season progressed. That is an objectively false statement whether you believe his last 18 starts to be signs of improvement or just performance variance. And then instead of posting advanced metrics during those two (or three) different time periods to suggest the underlying peripherals were all the same to help the performance variance angle (which I’m confident wouldn’t be the case), you cite a bunch of full season metrics and pretend that young players can’t / don’t get better with experience. Which again, is another absurd hypothesis and just simply lazy analysis. No competent GM would evaluate a young player (rookie, minor leaguer, etc.) solely on full year results and most certainly would look for signs of improvement & development. Ultimately, I do believe he’s a much better SP than the guy you saw in his first 10 starts and closer to the guy who put up a 4.25 FIP over his last 18 starters. If I filter on SPs who pitched 100+ innings last year, that FIP would rank 70th of 119 SPs. Go down to 80+ innings pitched and he would be 78th out of 138 SPs. Either way, that production is approximately mid #3 starter level. Whether he can maintain that into next year or regresses some remains to be seen, but I don’t think a rookie SP who performed at that level for his final 18 starts “stinks” in any rationale way.

lol…you hate breaking up seasons of rookies? Yes, let’s pretend that development is linear and only full season metrics matter for first year players. The best part is you said that you watched his first handful and that he didn’t get better, which is objectively not true.

What in the f***? Thorpe was a consensus top 70 prospect prior to TJS. And Burke struck out over 12 per 9 in final 10 appearances last year. Apparently he was fooling plenty of people during that stretch.

Median outcome may be #4 starters, but I think both Thorpe & Burke have higher ceilings than that. I can’t really comment on Kay, but regardless, my main point is it’s ridiculous to say these guys all “stink”.

Rest of year wasn’t any better for Burke vs. his first few starts? First 10: 6.19 K/9 | 5.06 BB/9 | 1.69 HR/9 | 6.14 FIP Middle 8: 8.59 K/9 | 2.86 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 4.32 FIP Last 10: 12.33 K/9 | 4.68 BB/9 | 1.49 K/9 | 4.17 FIP He flashed much better control during his middle eights starts along with a better K rate and then really ramped the K rate down the stretch. While the consistency wasn’t there, he flashed significant improvement as the year progressed. I really have no idea what you are talking about in regard to him. I have no idea what Kay is or will be, but he’s a mystery box that Bannister had a lot to do with and hopefully that means he won’t stink at minimum. Anyone saying otherwise without having scouted him in Japan is legit full of s%*#. The Thorpe hate is just straight bizarre to me. People on this site have basically declared he sucks because of lacking 4 seamer velocity and a couple of bad starts during his initial cup of coffee when he was clearly injured. Regardless, this is a kid with a 70 grade change up and 70 grade command who generated extremely weak contact in the minors. If his velocity jumps up a tick post TJS, this is a kid I believe can become a quality #3 starter.

Interesting. So a former consensus top 70 prospect stinks because of why? Did you actually watch Kay pitch in the NPB? And I guess Burke performing fairly well down the stretch is meaningless for reasons unknown.

Historically awful in what context?