Chicago White Sox

I’m starting Taillon on my fantasy team today. I hope he gets fucking destroyed.

Add Iglesias & Marte and you could be looking at the following roster come October: Anderson, SS Robert, CF Moncada, 3B# Abreu, 1B Jimenez, LF Mercedes, DH Grandal, C# Marte, RF Madrigal, 2B IF: Mendick OF: Engel OF: Vaughn UT: Garcia# BC: Collins* Giolito Lynn Rodon* Kopech 9th: Hendriks 8th: Bummer* 8th: Iglesias 7th: Crochet* 7th: Heuer 6th: Fry* 6th: Foster LR: Keuchel* LR: Cease

I don’t think Miami will be three games back come July 31st and don’t think there’s any way they win that division and are unlikely to get a Wild Card spot with reduced playoff spots. IMO, last year was an anomaly. As for Haniger, I actually loved him as a possible replacement for Eloy, but I’d prioritize a guy who can also play CF. Marte gives us insurance in the event that Robert’s recovery hits a snag. Also, Mitch is under control through 2022, so he’s likely going to cost more than Marte.

So if I’m Rick Hahn, my two primary deadline targets are Iglesias for the bullpen & Marte for the OF. The question then becomes what would these guys cost? Starting with Iglesias, relievers are always in high demand at the deadline and usually require a premium. That being said, the Reds didn’t get a huge return when moving him this offseason and he’ll cost ~$3M in salary to take on, which might be a problem for some clubs in this economic environment. That being said, they won’t just give him to us. I think an arm like Lambert or Pilkington (if his velocity is indeed back) plus a more seasoned relief prospect like Tyler Johnson might get it done, although I may see if they’d take a shot on Marshall instead of the latter. I know some people may hate that (Jimmy & Tyler both have their fans), but Iglesias would solve a massive problem for us. As for Marte, I’m going to keep this one simple. I think cashing in on Jake Burger makes all the sense in the world given he’s basically blocked everywhere here (unless you think he can play 2B) and flashing legit major league ability. He will need to keep it up for another month, but I could see teams highly interested in him. While the Marlins do have Brian Anderson at 3B, he’s only under control for two more years and can play RF if need be. I definitely think they’d be interested in him as the primary piece for Marte. Throw in a relief prospect like Caleb Freeman and I think you are probably close given Marte will cost ~$4.2M to absorb and is a true rental. Theoretically, this means you’ve added two high impact pieces for a 2021 postseason run without giving up Stiever (our best AAA depth piece) or any of the key Kanny starters. I’m not sure I can come up with a better, more realistic outcome for us that doesn’t require gutting the system.

On the OF side of things, I was all for Gallo until I started looking at his splits. When I did, I realized he’s not nearly as good against RHP as I originally thought. Meanwhile, there is another OF that could be available in Starling Marte that could help with our problem against RHP while being versatile enough defensively to play both CF & RF. Here is how these two guys’ wRC+’s have compared against RHP over the last five years: Marte | Gallo 2021: 127 | 98 2020: 114 | 96 2019: 126 | 124 2018: 118 | 108 2017: 116 | 119 Given that Marte only has one year of control left, I think he will likely come way cheaper than Gallo would which is a huge plus. And while I’d love to add more power, I do think Gallo’s unique three outcome approach could make an already streaky offense even moreso. While I don’t think you can go wrong with either guy, I’m all-in on Starling if the price is right.

Alright, I know this is meant to be a bullpen thread, but adding a OF will also be important IMO and given how shitty the system is at the moment I think it’s fair to consider how adding a bat will impact our ability to add a reliever. My view on the bullpen side of things is to target a rental. As we saw this offseason, we can play at the top of the RP market. Therefore, I wouldn’t overpay at the deadline for control. And looking at teams that will likely be sellers, the group of potentially available RH setup men that will be free agents after the year is slim. One name that does stand out to me is Raisel Inglesias. He’s had a rough start to the year, but the velocity & pitch movement is consistent with prior years. It just appears that he’s given up a ton of hard contact this year (33.3% HR/FB rate) and I’d expect that to normalize over the rest of the season. What I love about Inglesias is he has plenty of closer experience along with big strikeout out stuff, which gives you another strong option for high leverage situations along with both Hendriks & Bummer. Plus he’s another Cuban, which gives Caulfield another Disney storyline to run with (although in all seriousness, it might make him a bit easier to re-up). Right now, Iglesias would be the reliever I’d be targeting if I were Rick Hahn.

Too early to write off Burdi, but he’s got to figure out how to command his stuff and fast. So far in AAA he has 8 Ks & 6 BBs through 5.1 innings. I still think he has elite stuff, with three potential plus pitches, but it’s all meaningless if he can’t learn to harness it.

Leury? Isn’t his arm really good?

What else would you expect from Tommy Longo?

What in the fuck are you talking about? He has a 155 wRC+ over his last 10 games and a 192 wRC+ over his last five.

Yay, another DP

That’s fair and I don’t disagree about the power issue, but we’ve actually been a little bit better than I expected.

Outside of Madrigal, Leury, & Vaughn, everyone else is above league average against RHP with the bulk well above.

Are we actually still evaluating offensive production based on BA in this day and age?

I agree with you to some extent. Hendriks & Bummer have both been their worse in high leverage situations, but we’re also talking about very small sample sizes.

I wouldn’t rule out an OF addition, but I think a big reliever trade is all but a certainty. The challenge we face is the farm is total garbage, so may be hard to pull off too many impact moves.

One way to address the bullpen while adding a LH outfielder would be to do the following: CWS Receive: Joey Gallo, OF* Ian Kennedy, RP TEX Receive: Jared Kelley, SP Jonathan Stiever, SP James Beard, OF Not sure if that’s enough depending on Gallo’s market, but we’d be giving up two of our top four prospects plus an interesting OF prospect. I’m sure some would hate it, but it would address our two biggest needs in one fair swoop.

All comes down to which Cease we get today

As anyone who follows this team closely can tell you, the bullpen has been a big problem this year allowing nine blown saves so far (tied for 4th in MLB). Here the stats for the key members of the bullpen: Hendriks: 2.50 ERA | 2.51 xFIP | 93 %tile xwOBA Bummer: 2.76 ERA | 2.87 xFIP | 88 %tile xwOBA Heuer: 5.68 ERA | 3.00 xFIP | 47 %tile xwOBA Crochet: 0.77 ERA | 4.33 xFIP | 77 %tile xwOBA Marshall: 6.89 ERA | 5.67 xFIP | 46 %tile xwOBA Foster: 6.39 ERA | 3.46 xFIP | 64 %tile xwOBA Ruiz: 2.71 ERA | 3.91 xFIP | 47 %tile xwOBA Kopech: 1.91 ERA | 2.85 xFIP | 96 %tile xwOBA I think the takeaways are pretty clear here. While Hendriks & Bummer have blown a combined six saves and haven’t quite lived up to expectations, there is little reason to doubt they won’t be highly valuable relievers going forward. Beyond that, Kopech has been an absolute beast in a multi-inning reliever role but is a risk to switch to the rotation at some point. Finally, Crochet has put up a great ERA by limiting the quality of contact against him (.307 xwBACON), but his BB rate remains concerning and he isn’t going to maintain a 0.0 HR/9 rate all season. I still believe Katz is having Crochet hold back his stuff a bit, so if the velocity returns come October he can still be a post-season weapon. The problem is basically all the other RH relievers and I’ll even include Ruiz in that bucket. His xFIP isn’t horrible, but he’s gotten very lucky based on the quality of contact against him, including a 51% hard hit in rate (4 %tile). No doubt he’s been the least of our problems out of this next group, but I doubt buy him being anything other than last man in the pen as he simply doesn’t strikeout enough batters. Statcast basically has Ruiz no different than Marshall & Heuer, just with vastly different results. Heuer has been a huge disappointment as I was expecting big things from him. He has been roughed up pretty badly on his sinker this year (.429 wOBA), especially against LH hitters (all three HRs allowed have come against lefties). That being said, there is reason for optimism with him IMO. His BB rate has greatly improved from 2020 all while slightly improving his overall K rate. Zone charts suggest he’s left too many sinkers center cut and that’s something that should be correctable with time. He’s running a ridiculous .456 BABIP that will normalize over time. His changeup has also developed into a nice weapon against lefties, with a 55% whiff rate on much higher usage than last year. I think his splits against lefties will normalize by the end of the season and he can be a valuable 7th inning guy. And now here is where the real problems come into play. Foster & Marshall were both keys to the bullpen last year and both guys have been utter disasters so far with 6.00+ ERAs. Statcast likes Foster better and I can see why. Excellent K & BB rates to go with very solid quality of contact against him. He’s been the victim of a flukey LOB rate (56%) and being left to die by his manager in Seattle. Since that infamous blowup, he’s pitched 10.1 innings with 13 K’s, 1 BB, 0.77 WHIP, 1.74 ERA, and a 3.41 xFIP (nearly identical to his full season figure). He’s not the 2.20 ERA guy we saw last year and he probably requires a quick hook when things aren’t going well, but I still think he can be a good 6th inning guy. That leaves Marshall and good god has this dude failed to carry the load. Last year he put up a 2.58 xFIP and a 98 %tile xwOBA. He was legit elite and he was expected to compete with Heuer as the primary RH setup man this year. So what’s changed since 2020? Well first & foremost his K & whiff rates are down significantly, dropping from the high 80 %tiles to the low single digits. His whiff rate on his curveball in particular has dropped from 58.5% last year to 4.5% this year. That is absolutely bonkers and it’s even more surprising given his spin rates and movement are very similar to last year. I don’t know if the issue is location (more curves have been in the zone), him tipping his pitches, or scouting reports simply being out on him now, but the curve is no longer the weapon it once was. Furthermore, without the curveball being a threat, guys are sitting on his changeup and that pitch has taken a beating as a result. Honestly, I don’t know what to make of the guy, but I can confidently say this version of Marshall isn’t going to work and we can’t rely on him being an 8th inning option going forward. So what does this all mean? Our #1 trade need on the pitching side has to be a high-end RH setup man. I think we’re fine from the left side, with Bummer owning the 8th, Crochet the 7th, and eventually Fry in the 6th. I think Heuer can handle the 7th on a championship team and I’m willing to stick with Foster in the 6th. There is a gaping hole in that 8th inning and that will need to be addressed, especially with the young arms in Charlotte off to rough starts. I’d give Marshall another month in low leverage situations to prove he can regain the form of his curveball, but if not, he’s probably a DFA candidate given his lack of options. Either way, we need a better setup man in place to move all the righties down a spot and so that Tony doesn’t feel compelled to use 6.00+ ERA guys in high leverage situations.

Some are saying Vaughn was safe on the triple play, but Tony didn’t challenge. I still can’t believe we have the most talented Sox team since 2006, but have Old Yeller calling the shots...what an absolute travesty.

I actually thought he’d pull Marshall after the first hit, but he basically left him in there to die.

So very true unfortunately.

Glad we saved Liam for that save situation!

The roster is so talented that it’s been able to overcome some of the worst managing I have ever seen in my lifetime. I was real young when Bevington was around, but Tony makes me dream of the return of Robin.

Nope, the LaRusstans claim it was a great game