Chicago White Sox

Fully agree on Hendriks, but other than that I feel there hasn’t been a ton of smoke on most of our largest signings from the national writers in the past. You and a few others have done a great job of sharing things, but I can’t think of a ton of moves that guys like Nightengale, Rosenthal, or Passan leaked early into discussions.

Regarding Scherzer, I just don’t see how the Mets can afford him. Obviously we don’t know what the luxury tax will look like, but Spotrac shows them with a luxury tax payrol of $231M after yesterday’s addition. The third tier under the current CBA is $250M, so even if they sign a normal starting pitcher or two they will exceed. Scherzer would cause them to blow it out of the water and I’m not sure if any team has hit that third threshold (but could be wrong there).

Encarnacion was leaked, but that was also a unique situation in which he wasn’t able to sign a contract immediately for geographical / personal reasons. I feel like Wheeler didn’t leak until it was coming down to the wire. Did Yaz actually leak? Maybe like 30 minutes before I got PM on it, but that one came out of nowhere. I don’t remember a ton of stuff on Keuchel, but could be wrong there. Hendriks was the one where there was a ton of rumors, but right or wrong I attribute that to being a La Russa oriented move.

Look at this board with certain players. Some posters absolutely despise Grandal despite being the exact player we signed up for. From what I can garner, it’s a mix of him coming off a horrible year and generally being a streaky player. And while I’d prefer a guy who is more consistent month to month, I’m going to focus primarily on the full season results and Conforto has been about as good as anyone against RHP since 2017.

Which is what I’m assuming and not a good indicator of what will happen if we sign an NL player.

How often are the Sox’s actual targets leaked out though? There was absolutely nothing from the true insiders on Graveman and I’m pretty sure that’s been the case the last few years for almost every major signing. The Sox like to operate in the shadows and I truly believe if you see someone like Nightengale mention a name (like with Ray & Semien) it’s misdirection.

I think if Conforto was coming off a normal year he would get a lot more. Unfortunately for him that’s not the case and GMs now have to bake some risk into their valuations. If you look at Steamer, they have Conforto projected for 2.5 years next year. I personally think he blows that projection out of the water, but I’m also not the GM and accountable if a major signing goes wrong. Additionally, front offices are more data driven than ever. And while I’ve pointed out the flaws of modern day projection models in that they ignore context, the reality is that 0.8 fWAR season will weighted into go forward forecasts to some extent even if they’re obviously aware of the hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Marte is the one coming off an excellent year (5.5 fWAR), is the best CF on the market (which will certainly garner a premium), and doesn’t have a draft pick attached to him. Steamer has him at 3.1 wins next year, which already factors in massive regression (rather than massive improvement for Michael). Even with a standard aging curve, both guys would provide similar value over the next four years. As such, I’d expect similar deals for both guys, with the factors outlined above for Marte giving a slight edge to Conforto’s youth and upside. Obviously I trust if you’re hearing something that suggests otherwise.

I think if Conforto can get more than the QO on a four year basis, so basically 4/$76M, he would jump all over that. And with Marte setting the market, I don’t know how Boras can expect more than that in all honesty. I think there’s a real chance he signs before the Dec 1st deadline now. I also wouldn’t be surprised if a Kimbrel trade is on hold until the Sox can finalize something for RF. Taking on Segura before you add a left-handed bat, puts Hahn in a tough spot. If Conforto is one of our primary targets, I could see him signing and a Kimbrel trade happening in quick succession over the next couple of days.

One year isn’t worth losing the pick and international slot IMO.

As always, take it FWIW:

Honestly, Marte and Canha signing should hopefully push Conforto’s market forward. I also think Marte’s price sets a ceiling as he’s widely considered the superior free agent.

Graveman just got three years, zero chance Jansen doesn’t unless he resigns with the Dodgers under team friendly terms.

Gotcha…makes sense.

Exactly as MLBTR predicted. Definitely seems Segura could be heading our way.

Yeah, definitely could see that. What you thinking in return? Segura+, a package of just prospects, or something else altogether?

So who thinks the Sox make another move before the 1st? If so, what do you think it will be? I’m guessing Conforto signs with us for 4/$76M or so.

Thats suggest we should see peak activity probably around Monday if time is needed for physicals and other administrative actions.

I’d rather acquire Segura for Kimbrel than spend massive dollars on Baez.

100% agree.

Do you mind elaborating? I guess I still don’t get the issue at hand, so hard for me to know who’s at blame.

Lol…I never called us “brilliant” for pursuing Burnes or Wheeler, rather that it just reflected massive improvement from our pro scouting staff that had reached rock bottom with the Shields trade. And fans of other organizations do hype our young core & roster despite how ugly you like to paint things at times.

Oh please god yes

I still think Gausman might be our SP target. And if a 5/$110M deal is all it takes, then by all means get it done.

Conforto has been a better hitter than Schwarber over the course of his career, so I guess I don’t follow that comment unless you are basing everything on the 2021 season in which Conforto dealt with a hamstring issue. I still don’t understand this “adjusting” to a new league stuff either, but will wait for your response to my previous post on that.