Chicago White Sox

Cubs’ trade deadline additions potentially going against our emergency scrubs on Tuesday & Wednesday.

Fully agree…I just think they might wait until Sunday to call up Thorpe to both let him get fully stretched in a lower pressure situation and do one final evaluation on some of the arms on the fringe of the roster.

I believe it’s 30 days, so should be today or tomorrow. But they just have to move him off the 60 day IL for now. He has three options remaining so can wait the 26 man decision out a bit longer.

Here are my guesses at the pitching plan for the rest of the week: Mon: Castillo vs. Cubs Tue: Schweitzer/Fedde vs. Cubs Wed: Urquidy vs. Cubs Thu: Kay vs. Braves Fri: Burke vs. Mets Sat: Castillo vs. Mets Sun: Thorpe vs. Mets Weakest man bumped for Thorpe. Sandlin or Shane because options on Sep 1st when rosters expand. Schultz not part of the major league for remainder of year.

The issue with Thorpe is he’s maxed out at 75 pitches so far. I’m guessing they are targeting around 85 or so for his next start and then 100 thereafter. That’s still probably more than what some of the relievers are going to give you, but I could also see them wanting him to achieve that pitch count target no matter the outcome of the game (which isn’t feasible if with the Sox).

Two other considerations that could factor in where. First, rosters will expand in roughly two weeks. However, you can only add two additional players and only one can be a pitcher. Calling up Thorpe, Shane, or Noah will require a pitcher to be sent down and there aren’t many options there. You are really looking at Schweitzer and Hagen if you need to temporarily free up a spot. Second, guys can only be optioned 5 times in a season now. This is important to highlight since Schweitzer has already been sent down 4 times I believe. If that’s correct, if we send him down again, he’s stuck at AAA the rest season. For a team operating on pitching fumes, it would be tough to have a guy on the 40 man who can’t contribute down the stretch. At the same time, Hagen has looked pretty good and is much more likely to be a postseason weapon than Schweitzer. If so, you got to keep giving Hagen major leagues reps ahead of October.

Alright, woke up this morning to see who is scheduled to start the next three games against the Cubs. Right now, it’s Castillo going tonight and then two TBDs listed for Tuesday & Wednesday. Who do we think those TBDs will end up being? Here are the main options: Urquidy - He last pitched this past Friday giving up 3 ER in 3.2 IP. If he pitches on Wednesday, he’d be on four days rest. Right now, I’m not sure they can send him down without exposing him to waivers, so my guess is he’s locked in for getting at least one more start. Fedde - He last pitched this past Thursday in relief of Martin giving up 4 ER in 3 IP. He could be an option for Tuesday or Wednesday going on 4 days rest or 5 days rest respectively. It’s also very possible he’s just a piggyback option for someone else or part of a broader bullpen day strategy. Bullpen - Speaking of which, this is also a very realistic possibility. Schweitzer & Richards haven’t pitched since last Thursday and each could give you two or three IP. If Fedde doesn’t piggyback, he could also give you a couple. It would be a low frills plan, but I could them making if they don’t mind the optics of it happening during a big series for the fans. Thorpe - He last pitched this past Wednesday making his first start of the season in AAA going 5 IP with just 1 ER, 6 K, & 0 BB. As such, he’s option for either day and Venable recently brought him up, so I think he’s a central part of the rest of season roadmap. I’m just skeptical they do it for this series. Feels like one more start in Charlotte and then being called up for Sunday’s game is more likely. He will also require a roster move, both to the 40 man and 26 man roster, in order to be added. Shane Smith - He last pitched last Thursday in AAA going 6 IP with 1 ER, 5 K, & 1 BB. It was his best start in a while, but hard to ignore the rest of his struggles after just one good start. And like with Thorpe, is this the environment you want to bring him into when returning to the majors? That being said, he would be on four & five days rest if they wanted to with him, so he’s certainly an option. Schultz - He last pitched the past this past Friday going 4 IP with just 1 ER but also with no K’s or BB’s. He’d be on four days rest for the Wednesday game, so certainly an option, but seems like an unlikely one to me. He’s got a lot of stuff to work through and I think a low stress AAA environment is ideal for him. He’s also getting close to an innings limit, so calling him up and forcing another 26 man roster move for someone who may not be able to stick through September seems unlikely to me.

The bullpen is mostly set for next year. Taylor, Hicks, & Brazoban from the right side and then Hudson, Hagen (I think he spends 2027 in major league bullpen), & Murphy from the left side. Ideally you bring back Newcomb (I’d do a two year deal with him) or replace him with a guy who can handle high leverage. The long man can be one of the guys who loses out for the final SP spots.

Why we would we buy low on Chisholm? For CF?

I don’t think the Sox trade any of these guys just yet. The positional crunch is another year out and I think you can let some of these guys build up their value. The payroll should have plenty of space for another two years before a bunch of guys start hitting arbitration. For this offseason, we should be focused on adding in free agency, especially if the new CBA comes with a payroll floor.

I don’t think Carlson really factors into things at all at the moment. He may force his way into the mix eventually, but there is still too much development needed with the bat to have him be part of your mid term plan. Same applies to Fauske, Prosek, & Thome. All super fun & interesting prospects, but for 2027 to 2029 (what we should be focused on this offseason) they are nothing more than ammo to improve the major league roster if needed. To me, it’s really just Bonemer (since he’s getting very close to be ready) and Roch (because he should move fast given his skill set & 1.01 status) that you need to plan around. And as I outlined in my original post, you probably don’t need to make a decision on who the odd man out is for another year since we can simply replace Benintendi with Caleb when the time comes. I do think someone eventually goes for a SP like you said. I think you’re right that SEA & PIT are the two most likely trade partners. Just doubtful that we see that move this offseason. I think we’ll use their payroll flexibility to sign a big SP and pair them with Burke, Castilo, and some combo of Martin, Kay, Schultz, McDougal, Thorpe, & Shane Smith to start the 2027 season. If one of the young guys doesn’t step up in the first half of next year, then you start looking to the trade market at the deadline and following offseason to add a controllable SP.

The payroll should have plenty of room to grow next year. We have like $70M committed for five guys (Castillo, Murakami, Benitendi, Hicks, & Kay) plus three arb guys in Vargas, Doyle, & Brazoban. Everyone else is pre-arb for at least one more season. Not a ton of needs either. Adding a high-end SP is a must. A leverage reliever would be nice, especially if Newcomb departs. Other than that, you’re mostly looking at bench pieces and maybe a swing man…which are low cost things. This offseason is the time to spend big on a SP. And if they can’t turn Schultz or one of the other young arms into a quality starter, they will likely have to trade for one at some point too. That’s where the positional depth comes into play.

I’d be shocked if they looked to upgrade from Peters this offseason. I think they specifically went out and got Doyle as a hedge. Long term it’s possible they go for a bigger bat out there, but I don’t see it happening right away. I think most resources, both payroll and prospects, will go towards pitching first. As for the bench, you’re probably right, but I love Brooks Baldwin and don’t think he should be ignored when thinking about the future of our positional core. I think he can be a 10th man of sorts and him developing into such a player would make it easier to trade one of the main infielders for a SP.

Another interesting situation is who will be on the bench. Right now we have all RH hitters given the lineup has multiple guys in need of platoon partners. Doyle for sure looks like he’ll be Peters’ partner for the next three years assuming he can get his performance up. He’s also an elite defender and very fast (90th percentile sprint speed per Statcast and was even higher when healthy), so he offers some late game value as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. After that, it’s really hard to say. Quero in theory should be the obvious long term platoon partner for Teel at catcher. However, it doesn’t seem like the organization loves what he’s brings behind the dish. I sort of expect Quero to be the third string catcher to start next season behind Bart. And if he doesn’t show massive improvement next year, I definitely could see them pursuing a better defensive backstop to pair with Teel. Acuna is another young, controllable bench option, but one that is currently negative fWAR on the season. Yes, he’s been hitting a bit better as of late with an improved line drive rate and more power, but the bulk of the improvement is fueled by a normalizing BABIP (.419 since Jun 1st). He does provide late game value with elite speed and some versatility, but the ability to play CF is no longer very important and even the pinch running is a little less critical with Doyle in place. I candidly don’t think he’s shown enough to hold down a spot long term. Looking at the current infield construction, we’d actually be better suited to have a LH reserve infielder. While both are more than startable against RHP, Vargas (154 wRC+ vs. LHP | 120 vs. RHP) and Meidroth (169 wRC+ vs. LHP | 100 vs. RHP) are far superior against LHP. Neither guy gets a lot of breaks, but when they do it would be ideal for it to be against a RHP. To me, that makes Brooks Baldwin a perfect bench option for us. He had a 129 wRC+ against RHP in the second half of last year and I believe would be a 2 to 3 win player if given everyday playing time. That won’t happen with us short of injury, but I prefer him as a bench piece over Acuna hands down. That would leave one bench spot left and honestly it’s hard to say what do with it. In the very short term you need a platoon partner for Benintendi, but I could see Bonemer being called up pretty early next year and pushing Andrew out. Your best bet is still probably RH corner outfielder with some pop. I think the hope is long term Antonacci & Braden don’t require platoon partners, but it couldn’t hurt to have a guy who lets you sit one of them against tough lefties. There is no one in the system who really fits this role (sorry Junior Perez fans), so bringing back Grichuk or signing someone like him in free agency makes a ton of sense. It’s a massive bummer they dumped Pereira at the deadline as he was perfect for this role if healthy and hitting lefties well (126 wRC+)

We have three more years of control with Vargas. Even if you can’t extend him, you hold onto him as long as the team remains competitive. If Prosek is the real deal with the bat, he could be ready to replace Vargas at 3B (if that’s where he’s still at) come 2030.

They could do something like this, but I also think they may feel compelled to trade for some pitching. There is very little minor league pitching outside of the guys already on the 40 man roster and the arms we took in the draft. And I think at some point they will want to add a TOR starting pitcher. Hopefully they do that in free agency, but you never know with Jerry still running the team.

Best two pitchers

I think extending both should be a priority. To me, they are hands down the two most important players for the offense. That being said, I do think you have to have a plan in place to convince them to resign. Some guys really hate being full time DHs, so it’s very possible one or both of them would want assurances of that not happening. Vargas also may not want to move off 3B for that matter. Good problem to have, but one that will require intervention at the same point.

As is apparent to most posters here, the Sox are going to have a logjam coming on the position side of things once Bonemer & Roch are ready. As shown below, the bulk of our positional core is controllable for three to six more years. The only two exceptions are Murakami & Benintendi, who will be free agents after the 2027 season. Conceptually, those two could go and make room for Caleb & Cholowksy eventually, but I think the Sox will push hard to resign Mune. Andrew will certainly be gone after next year though. The question becomes who is the odd man (or men) out and how do you fit all the pieces together. I think most would agree that Cholowksy will be the eventual SS for us. Right now, it’s probably safest to assume that won’t be until 2028. Regardless, that will likely push Colson over to 3B where he would likely provide elite defense. What happens to Vargas in that situation? Does he move to 1B? Murakami isn’t terrible defensively at 1B, so not sure how he’d feel about DHing. But an infield defense of Colson at 3B, Roch at SS, Chase at 2B, & Miguel at 1B would likely be amongst the best in baseball. Bonemer poses even more questions. He’s currently splitting time between SS & 3B, but clearly won’t stick at the former and hasn’t really distinguished himself at the latter and is behind a lot of guys there to boot. The spot most people talk about for Caleb is LF, but what do you do with Antonacci? Defensive metrics don’t like him in the OF so far, but I feel like he’s looked ok for a guy who has never played there before and think he could get better with more reps. Regardless, Sam is far too important as the leadoff hitter to not find a spot for. It’s just hard to find an obvious one though, especially with Chase looking like the best all-around 2B in the AL at the moment. Honestly, I’m not sure what the solution is going to be. I think Bonemer will be up early to mid 2027 and will ultimately knock Benintendi out of the lineup. My guess is they use a rotating DH to make all the pieces work in the short run, with Bonemer getting time at both 3B and LF. But come 2028, someone will have to be moved if we end up extending Murakami. And that someone definitely feels like it’s going to be an infielder. Gun to my head, but I kind of think the Sox will end up trading Colson for a high-end, controllable SP. Once you make the decision to move him off of SS, he immediately becomes more valuable for another team than the White Sox. Doesn’t mean that he can’t be extremely valuable at 3B or that we have to move him, but given certain flaws in his offensive game, I could see the Sox looking to cash in if they feel his offensive ceiling will be capped. Not sure this is what I would do personally, but a hard decision will have to be made and I could see Colson being the odd man out so to speak. What do you guys all think? Would love to hear everyone’s opinions on this as it’s going to be a fascinating couple of off-seasons for us. Base Lineup: 1B: M. Murakami | L | 26.5 | 1 Yr | 4.4 fWAR | 150 wRC+ | 37% OAA 2B: C. Meidroth | R | 25.1 | 5 Yr | 4.1 fWAR | 120 wRC+ | 92% OAA SS: C. Montgomery | L | 24.5 | 5 Yr | 2.8 fWAR | 99 wRC+ | 95% OAA 3B: M. Vargas | R | 26.7 | 3 Yr | 4.1 fWAR | 130 wRC+ | 6% OAA LF: S. Antonacci | L | 23.5 | 6 Yr | 2.7 fWAR | 124 wRC+ | 8% OAA CF: T. Peters | L | 26.5 | 5 Yr | 3.2 fWAR | 113 wRC+ | 97% OAA RF: B. Montgomery | S | 23.3 | 6 Yr | 2.4 fWAR | 101 wRC+ | 78% OAA DH: A. Benintendi | L| 32.1 | 1 Yr | 0.1 fWAR | 103 wRC+ | N/A CA: K. Teel | L | 24.5 | 5 Yr | 2.7 fWAR* | 125 wRC+ | -3 FRV Bench Pieces: IF: L. Acuna | R | 24.4 | 5 Yr OF: B. Doyle | R | 28.3 | 3 Yr BC: J. Bart | R | 29.7 | 1 Yr Other Key Pieces: SS: R. Cholowsky | R | 21.4 | 6 Yr IF: C. Bonemer | R | 20.9 | 6 Yr CA: E. Quero | S | 23.4 | 5 Yr UT: B. Baldwin | S | 26.0 | 4 Yr IF: W. Bergolla | L | 21.8 | 6 Yr

We play mostly below .500 teams after the Cubs series

Who starts for us tomorrow?

Massive win

Atta boy Huddy

No walks!!!!

@DoUEvenShift - where is the meme?!