Chicago White Sox

I’d definitely put my money on that outcome vs. the alternative…I just hope it’s because Roch, Colson, & Murakami have forced the issue.

If Murakami performs, I hope the Sox plan to resign him. IMO, we should be in “win now” mode by next season unless a lot of things go wrong. And given that we have zero long term payroll commitments, resigning a 1B shouldn’t be a problem for us (hopefully). I think the more likely outcome is Vargas is eventually traded. But even talking about this hypothetical is a good problem to have.

Vargas needs to have a big year if he wants to hold that spot long-term. I fully expect another leap, but not sure if it will be enough to hold off the eventual impact of Roch.

There is no doubting the Sox should have taken a positional player in hindsight and I’d argue they should have probably done so at the time of the draft. The Sox taking Konner Griffin wasn’t a slam dunk decision at the time though. No doubt he had his fans and some posters here were championing for him, but Smith over him specifically wasn’t necessarily a crazy proposition draft night. Regardless, I think it’s fair to say Smith can turn out to be a really good pitcher while also acknowledging Getz sort of bungled the pick by over-ruling his Scouting Director.

If I’m being honest, both of these projections feel low to me. The Sox pitching staff put up 11.5 fWAR last year. You are basically assuming we get like 5 fWAR total from the rotation and like 3 from the bullpen, which seems super pessimistic when Shane Smith should provide 2+ and Taylor 1+ respectively. I just don’t buy the other four SP’s combining for 3 or less wins and I don’t buy the other seven relievers combining for 2 or less wins. The Opening Day rotation is bad on paper, but there are a fuckton of arms coming and I think Burke is going to blow his projections out of the water with his slider fixed. The bullpen on paper is way better than last year’s and that one combined for 4 wins. I get bullpens are volatile, but can’t accept it getting worse than last year with the additions we have made and further usage of Taylor. My median projection for the broader staff would be closer to 12 wins and I think any reasonable floor is certainly above 8. Your positional projection feels more reasonable to me, but I’m definitely a bit higher than you. Steamer also his this group around 13 wins, but I think they are too low on certain players (Colson, Teel, Baldwin, Sosa, Antonacci) and too high on Chase. I expect the former group to outproduce their projections by 4 or 5 wins in aggregate and Chase to come in a win light. As such, I expect something closer to 17 to 18 wins from this group, which would have been about league average last year.

So you think this team is going to put up about 15 fWAR next year?

It comes down to roster fit. Sosa’s path to playing time is limited because of his defensive shortcomings. Right now, I’m assuming the bulk of his at-bats will be at DH and against LH pitching. That’s just not a huge role. Obviously injury could change that, but even then Antonacci isn’t too far off and will eventually push for a role. Plus the Sox already have Baldwin who is a better option at 3B or 2B. None of this means you should trade him, but it’s hard to see his value going up as a short side platoon DH.

I don’t disagree that the Sox have been elevating his status beyond the typical NRI and obviously have higher hopes for him than me. But I also think people have come to this conclusion that the Sox have soured on Baldwin for reasons unknown.

I’m sure the Sox are hoping Kelenic somehow achieves his former top 5 prospect potential, but not sure why anyone would expect any sort of outcome like that at this time. He was legit awful last year. Meanwhile, Baldwin put a 119 wRC+ in the second half of 2025 (his first season), which is better than Kelenic’s best season by nine points. I’m just blown away by these Kelenic & Baldwin takes.

Then Getz should resign for asset mismanagement. Really hope that isn’t the plan.

According to who?

He was mostly a regular after July 1st and used primarily within the OF during that time. He sat against some lefties but that’s not really that unusual for a first year player. Seems like you are trying to shape the facts to fit a narrative that isn’t really true.

Then what is his purpose on this roster? And who makes more sense DHing over him?

Then he should be traded. Thinking him being used as a backup catcher for a season will somehow increase his value is crazy. If Quero doesn’t get 400+ PA’s somewhere then I’ll be pushing for Getz to lose his job.

Based on what? What have the Sox said or signaled that suggests a lack of faith in Baldwin? I keep hearing this narrative and have yet to find anything substantial backing it.

I still don’t buy Kelenic being in our starting nine 9 come OD and not yet convinced he will even make the major league roster coming out of camp. Definitely possible on the latter, but it’s going to be an uphill battle to steal significant playing time from Quero & Baldwin.

Venable told the media Braden won’t be leaving camp with the team. But if he performs in the minors, I think he could be up by mid season.

I’m growing optimistic about this team’s chances of competing this year. While the OF has uncertainty to it, I like the broader group of positional players Getz has put together and feel like potential reinforcements in Montgomery and Antonacci will help in fill in any gaps. Murakami and Colson being middle of the lineup anchors is essential to that though, so any shortfalls there and my hope goes out the window. The rotation is without question the big wild card. This is a poor group on paper, perhaps the worst in baseball. However, Smith is a legit SP and I truly believe in Burke’s talent and fully expect a rebound. From there, you got to hope that one of Kay or Martin can surprise a bit and maintain a spot. If so, I can see some combo of McDougal, Sandlin, Schultz, Smith, & Thorpe upgrading the last two spots by midseason. As I just posted, I expect Tanner to come fairly quick and likely knock out Fedde. The other kids could be ready by June or July. No guarantees these kids come up and produce immediately, but this a very talented group of pitching prospects and could see Shane Smith type production or better out of the gate

Neither guy has to be a flip candidate. By 2027 this team will be serious about trying to compete. In the unlikely event Kelenic is good, he can be a corner OF for us in two competitive seasons. And with essentially no long term payroll on the books, Murakami shouldn’t be an impossible resign unless he goes full Babe Ruth.

On the pitching side, here is how I see things shaking pending no more injuries or trades: Rotation: Smith (R) Kay (L) Martin (R) Burke (R) Fedde (R) Bullpen: CL: Dominguez (R) SU: Leasure (R) SU: Taylor (R) MR: Newcomb (L) MR: Vasil (R) MR: Gilbert (R) MR: Hicks (R) LR: Paez (R) Pitching staff feels mostly locked in at this point. While the last two rotation spots may technically be open, I’d be shocked if anyone took over Burke & Fedde to start the season. That being said, I really think McDougal could be up by May. He is not eligible for PPI, so there is zero reason to force him onto the OD roster. However, after 4 to 8 weeks in Charlotte I think he could get the call if all goes well. As such, that just leaves the final two bullpen spots as legitimate battles, which I expect to go to one RH and one LH. The second LH reliever role is wide open at the moment and I only went with Gilbert due to option status. I think there is a high possibility of Murphy winning this role. Beyond those two, both Eisert and Borucki are possibilities, but feel like they will start at Charlotte baring big camps. As for the RH side, Paez is the hands down favorite for the last spot. I don’t think he’s a guarantee, but I think the Sox believe he‘s a long term major league starter and will try their best to keep on the roster this season. His Rule 5 counterpart is certainly another guy who will be pushing for a spot, but Alberto is going to need a massive camp to jump Paez. Gonzalez has one option left but is probably Paez’s biggest immediate threat, while Berroa is probably his biggest long term threat once healthy. I wouldn’t be shocked if a NRI guy also pushed for a spot, but my guess is the Sox would carry Paez into the season before promoting one of them.

Here is what I’m expecting on the positional side assuming no further injuries or trades. Positional Group: IF: Murakami (L), Meidroth (R), Montgomery (L), Vargas (R), Sosa (R) OF: Hayes (R), Benintendi (L), Baldwin (S), Acuna (S), Pereira (R) CA: Teel (L), Quero (S), Lee (R) Main Lineup vs. RHP: Meidroth, 2B (R) Teel, CA (L) Montgomery, SS (L) Murakami, 1B (L) Vargas, 3B (R) Benintendi, LF (L) Hayes, RF (R) Quero, DH (S) Baldwin, CF (S) Main Lineup vs. LHP: Meidroth, 2B (R) Vargas, 3B (R) Hayes, LF (R) Montgomery, SS (L) Sosa, DH (R) Quero, CA (S) Murakami, 1B (L) Pereira, RF (R) Acuna, CF (S) As you can see above, there is fairly good balance against both RHP & LHP. I don’t see much of a role for Lee, but I can see an argument for holding him for a month and hoping a team suffers a catcher injury and Lee suddenly becomes tradable for something. After that, maybe Kelenic is ready for a spot or even Antonacci?

Kelenic can start the season in AAA. Unless he absolutely destroys the baseball this spring, that should be the no doubt plan. He was fucking dreadful last year and we should make him prove himself over a longer period before committing to him at the major league level.

I don’t really get what this means. Sending down one of your better hitters against RHP who can play six positions would be a fairly big deal. Are we not trying to win and also develop our best young major league ready players?

Why does learning how to play OF defense need to take place in the minors vs. the majors though? And who on the bubble is worth protecting over rostering a kid that just put up a 119 wRC+ over the 2H of the season (and 129 vs. RHP)? Against RHP, Baldwin should be on the lineup every single day.

While Baldwin’s bat still needs development, this final stage needs to be at the major league level. And while his outfield defense still needs a lot of work, I don’t see any benefit for that happening in the minors vs. the majors. As such, I just don’t see a reason to send him to AAA to simply protect one of Lee or Mead. If you desperately want to protect both of them, you could send Quero down to start the season and actually give Lee some runway in hopes of boosting his trade value. I’m not really in favor of that either, but there is more inherent logic to it in my opinion as it gives Teel & Quero everyday reps behind the plate for a short bit while we see how the DH / OF mix plays out. Ultimately though, I just don’t see the purpose of Mead on this roster unless there is an injury or a Sosa trade. And I don’t really love the idea of a third catcher and don’t see him being a long-term fit for this roster.