Chicago White Sox

What’s prompting this statement? If we should learn anything from last year’s class, only the tier one guys get tier one contracts in today’s environment. There were only three contracts above $100M last season and those were the only three above four years in length. Yes, it was a shitty class in many ways, but despite that supply constraint teams did NOT overpay for B tier free agents.

So nothing over $100M then? That’s confirms my point, Friedman has run out huge payrolls, but has never signed anyone to a massive contract before. I think the Angels are a far bigger threat to land Cole than the Dodgers.

Just out of curiosity, but what big contracts has Andrew Friedman signed off on as GM of the Dodgers?

Sure, teams will pay the luxury tax, but they won’t do it for too many years in a row and to my knowledge no team has ever gone above the second penalty threshold. And as much as the Yankees can afford to pay the tax, it makes owners effectively pay more for free agents and historically they don’t like doing that. The luxury tax (at least the second threshold) has basically served as a defacto salary cap.

There is zero chance any NL team signs him unless they know the DH is coming to both leagues soon.

I definitely could see something like that with both us and the Rangers.

Yup, definitely agree. I could actually see a JDM signing paired with a Joc trade (assuming the price is reasonable). It really seems like something Hahn/KW would do.

I have never seen a free agent market in my lifetime where “teams were not in the market to pay for starting pitching”. Teams are always in need of starting pitching and the TOR free agents are always in high demand. The difference is teams are much smarter nowadays and more often than not will not go over their internal valuation for a guy. I’m probably the biggest fan of Wheeler on this board, but no way anyone goes over five years with him and that caps his value in the $100M to $125M range.

Being able to fit a massive contract into your budget for 2020 is much different than fitting it in for the next five to seven years. How do those teams all look a few years from now? My guess is the Yankees & Dodgers be quickly be approaching the luxury tax.

So much for you being optimistic! Looks like you lasted a robust 8 hours!

I think you’re taking a major leap with this assumption. His 2019 season was still amongst the best in baseball from a quality of contact perspective and in line with 2015 & 2016 seasons. Guys do have career years and more likely than not that’s simply what happened in 2017 & 2018. I’d wager large sums of money he puts up a wRC+ of 130+ over each of the next three seasons.

But why is he getting more than Corbin did a year ago when there were literally no other high end pitching options available?

Great post Caulfield and spot on with your assessment of Wheeler’s market.

Absolutely no chances Wheeler is getting 6/$175M. Patrick Corbin got 6/$140M in a highly back-loaded deal and is left-handed and flashed more dominance. I think Wheeler ultimately gets around 5/$100M.

The thing is the Sox are flush with cash and there aren’t a ton of quality free agents to spend it on. As I just said, I’d prefer Grandal but it just seems like us and JDM are destined to be together.

He would definitely be a tremendous clubhouse presence on top of being an elite bat.

That would be awesome. While I prefer Grandal, JDM would be nice consolation prize. Obviously signing him adds some complexity to the 1B/DH situation, but it’s definitely better than coming away empty handed in terms of impact bats this offseason.

Qualifying offers are Boras’ kryptonite, he just refuses to accept how they hurt his players’ value on the open market. That being said, he’s got to be confident as fuck that something better is out there to pass on 3/$63M in guaranteed money.

Yup.

Exactly. Cease becomes expendable for a cost-controlled RF if need be.

On free agents most definitely. I can’t recall a guy he had opt-out where it blew up in his face, but admittedly I could be missing someone.

No way Encarnacion is getting 1/$19M when Nelson Cruz signed a 2/$26M deal last offseason and the DH market is even more team friendly.

I think almost most teams have some talks with agents that borderline on tampering. And honestly, if JDM opts-out it’s because Boras knows he can get him more than 3/$63M.

If the Sox wanted to immediately be World Series threats you’d sign both and look to acquire some cheaper help at RF & DH. Obviously that wild never happen and would be an incredibly risky plan, but my god the potential of toe rotation would be insane.

I’m fairly confident he opts-out and that Boras has had some under the table talks with us and/or the Rangers on theoretical parameters. My guess is us or Texas sign him to a 4/$85M deal fairly early in the offseason.