Chicago White Sox

Dancing around the data? You couldn't even respond to my post that included Statcast metrics that suggests he's a better hitter in 2018 & 2017 than he was in 2016 & 2015. How do you explain that exactly, especially the 2018 results? I'm looking into your points above and will respond later tonight.

You still haven’t addressed the points / questions in my recent post. Still think you’re misinterpreting that statistic and drawing incorrect conclusions.

Smith battled but you’re 100% spot on with this.

Off the right center fence.

And like that Jason jinxed it.

Alright Moncada, let’s knock Timmy in here bud!

100% agree. I’d much rather see the velocity return at this point than the command.

I'm still skeptical of your theory and how you're using that pitch value metric. I was hoping to find exit velocity by pitch type, but unfortunately Brooks Baseball doesn't have that info available for recent years. However, I fully disagree with your idea that he's trending down as a hitter. So far in 2018, he has the highest exit velocity & hard hit % since Statcast data became available (so only excluding his rookie season) along with the 2nd highest barrel % in this time period. More importantly, this year he's putting up his highest xwOBA during this time period, which is far more similar to his 2017 production than his 2016 & 2015 output. So if he's somehow losing bat speed (which I still haven't seen proof of), he must be making huge strides in his ability to recognize & do damage against offspeed pitches & breaking balls because the Statcast data suggests he's an improving hitter. Again, I think you're misusing the pitch value statistic based on Fangraph's disclaimers below. From what I can tell, the statistic measures absolute production against a certain pitch and NOT ability against a pitch. If Jose were to get more heaters out of the zone and not swing at them, his pitch value for the four seamer would naturally go down. That does NOT mean his bat speed has decreased or that he's replacement level against fastballs. And given how much damage he did against fastballs his first two years, it's only natural to assume pitchers would stop challenging Jose with fastballs in the zone and use offspead or breaking balls against him when they're in a pinch.

Again, how do you know pitchers are simply no longer challenging Jose with fastballs and throwing more heaters out of the zone? When he came to the states, he was rumored to have “slider” bat speed and quickly put that theory to bed. I’m still skeptical you are using these numbers appropriately. Also, I’m not sure where you came up with the idea he’s seeing more and more fastballs, as that’s simply not true, at least in terms of 4 seamers which your stats are based on.

That would be huge for the system.

Our pitching depth is really amazing. There were a ton of guys that didn’t make the cut on my list that easily could have made those last five slots or so. The big names missing in the upper minors would be Puckett, Clarkin, & Guerrero. Henzman could have easily made a case for a spot & Battenfield’s results at least make him someone to watch. Plus we just drafted a ton of interesting college arms and I expect a few of them to shoot up the rankings next year. None of these guys have TOR upside, but we should hopefully have a pipeline of back-end options for the foreseeable future.

I think most of the movement will be on the pitching side. Here’s who I’m thinking will be traded and who would be their replacement: Shields => Stephens Soria => Vieira Avilan => Bummer Cedeno => Hamilton There’s obviously a non-zero chance Abreu gets dealt, but I just don’t see a lot of interest in other guys unless someone is willing to overpay for multi-positional guy like Yolmer or Leury. And with the Garcia’s already back and Nicky on his way, I think most of the positional guys will the same AAAA types who have already been up & down this season. I’m hoping they don’t call up Jimenez and start the clock unless it’s in early July, otherwise wait until next year.

Avila only has one year of control left, Cedeno actually has two years left and has been pretty damn good so far. I could see him being the better trade chip if we can continue to pitch well into late July.

No doubt, it just seems like they want as much depth as possible prior to the bullpen fire sale in late July. And Minaya is a guy they can send up & down as needed.

Two of those guys aren’t on the 40 man.

Vieira has been pretty good as of late, wouldn’t be surprised if he replaced Minaya in the near future.

Frank’s 1994 might be the best non-steroid fueled offensive season of all-time.

First multi-hit day in 13 games for Abreu apparently. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Can you explain how the statistic is calculated and why there may not be embedded biases in terms of how pitchers are attacking him?

Same here, but half a season is better than nothing. Was really worried they’d keep him in rookie ball all year.

Tier 1 (FV 60+) 01) Jimenez, OF 02) Kopech, RHP 03) Robert, CF Tier 2 (FV 55) 04) Madrigal, 2B/SS 05) Cease, RHP 06) Hansen, RHP 07) Dunning, RHP 08) Collins, C Tier 3 (50 FV) 09) Basabe, CF 10) Adolfo, OF 11) Rutherford, OF 12) Burdi, RHP 13) Burger, 3B Tier 4 (FV 45) 14) Gonzalez, OF 15) Zavala, C 16) Stephens, RHP 17) Walker, OF 18) Hamilton, RHP 19) Curbelo, SS/3B 20) Sheets, 1B 21) Johnson, RHP Tier 5 (40 FV) 22) Adams, RHP 23) Cordell, OF 24) Sosa, SS 25) Vieira, RHP 26) Lambert, RHP 27) McClure, RHP 28) Flores, LHP 29) Rivera, SS 30) Pilkington, LHP

Makes sense to me. All those guys need innings. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Puckett there too for the same reason.

They could use the AFL to make up for lost time.

I agree with all of this. Not good timing and a recency bias could affect his value with such a top heavy league. He really needs to get out of this slump. I still think he has far more value than most people here think if teams believe they’re getting a 135 wRC+ type hitter.

When you ignore that players are human beings that will have struggles then you must be a robot. I get you’re a numbers guy, but you have to consider all qualitative information as well or you will come to bad conclusions. I mean, would you even be having this same argument a month ago when his key numbers were all perfectly in-line with his 2017 stats? Never overreact to a player coming too big of a high or low and that’s exactly what you are doing right now.