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QUOTE (gatnom @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 11:30 AM) Obviously, this is an extremely small nit to pick, but I find it interesting that BaseRuns is giving Erik Johnson 103 IP as a starter, Michael Ynoa 25 IP as a reliever, and completely not projecting any contribution from Rodon (probably due to lack of stats to project). Also worth noting, we're giving Matt Davidson 150 PA at 3B, though he's projected for more WAR than the 350 PA we're projected to give Leury Garcia. Yeah, I mean those are the "grains of salt" we have to take these projections with. I think it's more useful to look at these projected standings in a relative sense than to get caught up in the actual numbers. What this tells us, essentially, is that there are still a lot of teams that look better than us. If one year of Samardzija is going to make sense, we need to make a couple more upgrades yet.

QUOTE (LDF @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 10:15 AM) i must be reading it wrong, i thought i saw 85 wins. the difference between 1 and the sox in a net of 3 wins difference. I think you were looking at the wrong column -- it shows 85 losses, 77-85.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 10:08 AM) You guys get my point at least though...another LH hitting outfielder basically also requires us to go out and find 2 other decent enough right-handed hitters to take some of those at-bats away from them, otherwise we're looking at a lineup easily destroyed by lefties both as starters and as relievers. Definitely -- that's the value of a well-constructed bench, which is probably something that's been overlooked as a major weakness for this club that past few years.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 09:53 AM) The great thing about the MLB playoffs.....all you have to do is make it. And with our front 3 starters we have as good of shot as anyone in a 7 game series. We for sure need to add minimum 1 more at least above average bat, but I don't think there is any team in the AL that is head and shoulders better than us currently. Not to mention that steamer projections team WAR is a pretty ridiculous measure to use. I get his overall point, but its still a pretty big reach for the basis of an article. Must not have much to write about. Well, he's not using projected WAR to try to calculate a record, but instead as a measure of projected total "true talent" that each teams currently have. I think it makes much more sense there. If you asked Cameron to predict records, he would point to projected BaseRuns records (which is a much, much better version of Pythagorean record), which very quietly got put up on their site last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings This model currently has the Sox projected for 77 wins.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 09:52 AM) Think about it against a LH starting pitcher though. Here's ~OPS against lefties throughout that lineup from last year: .720 .744 .620 Insanely good new left fielder - pretty weak .992 - only 50 PAs though .565 .732 .618 for sanchez against lefties in AAA. You've got Abreu and potentially garcia who are legit threats against lefties, but they're bracketed by guys with ~600 OPS's against lefties. You've got at least 3 guys with sub-.620 OPS numbers against lefties in there, potentially more if you get a LH hitting left fielder. Hypothetically let's use Ethier as an example - you stick him in there in that new left fielder slot and you have 4 guys in the lineup with OPS below .620 against lefties, 3 guys around .730, and 2 potential monsters. That lineup would be destroyed by left handed pitching and we don't have any strong righties on the bench to take those roles. Well, I think it would be reasonably easy to find corner platoon partners for "new LF" and Gillaspie. The corner OF could spell LaRoche too if he's in a slump and "new LF" is hitting okay or is at least valuable defensively.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 09:22 AM) He says it unartfully but I think he has a point. If we bring in a LH hitting OF whose platoon splits are normal, we're setting ourselves up to be extremely vulnerable to LH pitching all year. LaRoche is terrible against lefties, Gillaspie is terrible against them, our main backup OF right now is a lefty, we don't seemingly have a reliable righty on the bench other than Sanchez, if Sanchez is on the bench that means Johnson, a lefty, is starting at 2b, and Eaton's a little worse (but not terrible) against lefties. Maybe you can live with a few of those guys in a lineup against ordinary lefties, Eaton's fine, maybe Johnson will be ok, but if you run out a lineup with Gillaspie, LaRoche, and a LH hitting right fielder against an average lefty pitcher, this lineup will look like swiss cheese. They won't pitch to Abreu and that'll be about the only real worry they'd have. Most lefties are bad against lefties. The lefty platoon splits are significantly wider than righty platoon splits. I'm with Cali -- I don't understand why it matters if the OF is all left-handed, all that matters is that the lineup overall is balanced. Also, it's much easier to find platoon partners in the outfield corners than anywhere else. I guess this is what the lineup would look like today: L Eaton R Ramirez R Abreu L LaRoche R Garcia L Gillaspie R Viciedo R Flowers S Sanchez But I'd rather it look like: L Eaton R Ramirez L LaRoche R Abreu L New LF R Garcia L Gillaspie R Flowers S Sanchez That, my friends, is a nightmare for bullpen matchups. Alternatively, Melky would allow you to maintain the same balance while allowing you to feel like you're "protecting" Abreu: L Eaton S Cabrera R Abreu L LaRoche R Garcia L Gillaspie R Ramirez S Sanchez R Flowers

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 12:13 AM) How exactly? I think you're focusing on the result rather than the process. He didn't really do anything better this year. He made a bit more contact, and doubled his HR output (from 1 to 2!), but the walk rate halved, to a pretty awful 4.8%, which is a major negative for a player whose value is tied to his ability reach base and utilise his speed. The big difference is that his average increased 50 points thanks to a rather high BABIP (.346). While you would expect a player with Gordon's skill-set (e.g. his bunt hit ability) to be able to register higher than average BABIP marks, this was still significantly above his career BABIP (.326). The problem with someone like Gordon is that, due to the fact that he doesn't walk, hit for power or make elite level contact, so much of his offensive value is tied to his BABIP. If he has a good year with balls in play, such as in 2014, then you can buy him as a league average hitter and a valuable player, but in the years when he will have bad or even neutral luck on balls in play, he's going to go back to being the awful Dee Gordon of 2012 and 2013. He's below average in the field too. The Dodgers sold high and got a nice return. Precisely

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 05:37 PM) On what do you base your assumption? He seemed to be getting a little stronger, regaining some of the lost velocity, as well as learning to pitch with the diminished velocity. Why would he now get worse? How? 1st half: 3.99 ERA/4.59 FIP 2nd half: 5.96 ERA/5.04 FIP

QUOTE (kwill @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:38 PM) Here what I don't get about this rumor. Are the Mariners seriously considering putting Nelson Cruz and Dayan Viciedo in the outfield together. It just seems like a potential disaster for them. I believe they've stated publicly that they see Cruz as full-time DH. Could be wrong

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:32 PM) So if you drop the "stretching his arm out to go 6 innings/terrible with the Rangers and Ms" portion, basically Noesi was just about as good as a guy the Tigers had to trade for? I mean how much is that portion? I see that could be a factor, but what is there to suggest that all his good was true talent and all his bad was "stretching out?" In general, it sounds like the most generous possible explanations/justifications for Noesi's poor performance paint him as "not significantly worse" than Simon last year, right?

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:43 PM) I'll make this argument: Noesi is a starter. He is not a reliever. Look at the evidence. His only other decent year was when he started most of the games. Despite a bullpen in tatters what do the Sox do immediately upon claiming this middle reliever? they put him in the rotation and keep him there. I agree. But in that role he was a lot worse than Simon.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) Straight from Dave d the tigers are out on scherzer. Gotta love when your rivals have days like this. Bless you boys is an angry mean place right now. Simon is trash come on I'd rather have Hector he is 8 years younger with a similar 2014! Simon: 3.34 ERA/4.33 FIP/196.1 IP Noesi: 4.75 ERA/4.83 FIP/172.1 IP I'm not saying Simon is awesome, but I don't see any argument at all the he didn't have a substantially better 2014 than Noesi. And it's hard to make any sort of positive argument for Noesi outside of 2014.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 02:33 PM) And you know that how? Dee Gordon made major strides forward last year and while he struggled the year previously when coming up through the Dodgers system he was widely regarded as a top 100 prospect. He was a much different player a year ago and when you combine his speed and value on the paths, he brings a very unique skill-set. Like I said, I would trade Dee Gordon for Howie Kendrick when you consider contracts, etc. Kendrick is a better player but Gordon is on a superior contract. I'm just telling you what's likely based on precedent. He may be awesome despite everything we know about his type of player, certainly, but that's the less likely outcome. Here's a good breakdown from Jeff Sullivan: As is my usual MO, I just have a hard time expecting any specific guy to defy all of baseball history, no matter how big or small a paradigm we're talking about. It does happen, of course, but not very often.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:03 PM) So if I look at the Dodgers...they have lost Dee Brown, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Dan Haren (who was actually pretty darn solid last year). They have added Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Brandon McCarthy, and Grandal. That is relatively lateral, especially from my perspective that Hanley & Kemp are the best players on that entire list, both of whom are out. Have they cut payroll? I don't know. They sent $42M in cash in the two trades ($32M for Kemp + $10M in the Brown/Haren trade) They spent 48M on Bmac (12M this year using a straight average) Jimmy Rollins = +11M Howie Kendrick = +9.35M Grandal = + Hanley Ramirez = -16M Matt Kemp = -21M / -107M Total But Dee Gordon isn't gonna do what he did last year. They essentially had to "replace" that production. And the loss in value for Kemp has to be compared to his replacement, because all those guys can't play at the same time. So they're really not losing all of Kemp's value, they're losing the difference between Kemp's value and Crawford's value, and you can make an argument that the productivity of all the OFs will increase as the logjam lessens.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:20 PM) Other than throwing all of Jerry's money at a Scherzer type of guy, I wouldn't want to give a guaranteed contract to anyone. You have Sale-Shark-Q-Danks to start with, all of whom are basically cemented there. Banks, so long as he's here, has to be in the rotation. Then you have Noesi, who was solid all year and is a great value proposition if he can improve even just modestly from last year. Wouldn't want to release him or anything like that. Ideally, we at least give him a trial run of starts to see if he's for real. Then you have Rodon waiting in the wings for a spot too. We're not super deep, but adding a guaranteed contract player in there could make it where we have guys pitching only because we can't get rid of them (Danks, potential FA) I think you're right if we assume that Danks cannot be moved. I guess I'm still hoping he can

QUOTE (South Sider @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:08 PM) TOO LONG; DIDNT READ Trade Viciedo and Danks Slot Rodon into rotation or find a cheap #5 starter Sign Melky Go to war with Gillaspie and Flowers, provided a player you can't pass up on becomes available (which in all likelihood, won't) I think your evaluation is pretty spot on.

Good for the bullpen, I still think we need a starter. Rienzo doesn't count though.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:51 AM) That's what I meant. My bad. It seems substantially better than Danks and Noesi to me.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:39 AM) Kemp at 77M has a chance to be a legit value and the Padres needed to make a splash. I really don't quite grasp what the Dodgers are doing. I think they are no better today than they were at the end of last year, possibly slightly worse. And on top of that, while getting rid of Kemp's contract, they also have put themselves in a position where they have a couple guys that will be walking a year / getting big contract (Rollins / Kendrick). Yes, Dodgers have guys in place but I think the Angels did best in that 3 team trade. Getting a young cost controlled power arm that is near to big league ready is a major coup for a club like the Angels. Yes, Kendrick was good but with the Angels payroll that move was fantastic, imo. I will say I think Grandal is a pretty darn good player. I also am not a big buyer of the "pitch" frame concept. I think there are significant flaws in the early statistics behind it but I do agree it is an important concept but IIRC, there is a lot of variability depending on the pitch frame / defensive catching metrics that you look at. Idk, I'd say the Dodgers are look roughly as good as last year, despite losing Hanley, and they've done it without trading ANY significant prospects and also cutting significant payroll. What they've lost in offense they've gained back in defense. RE: framing. I think the issue is that Baseball Prospectus has WAY overvalued the level of contribution that framing has, but I don't think there's much, if any, criticism in how they collect and analyze the data. In other words, BP overrates the impact, but they give us a good list of who is best and who is worst.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) Wow. Nice move for Padres. $32M cash and I think they got maximum value for Grandal. I don't like what the Dodgers were doing. I think the exact opposite. Kemp belongs somewhere that he can DH. Grandal actually graded out as one of the best framers in the league last year, Wieland is good but hasn't been able to stay healthy. Given the logjam the Dodgers had in the OF and the pressure they are assumed to be under to reduce payroll, clearing $7m and improving your C situation AND adding quality pitching depth AND some other prospect seems like a coup. The Padres spent $77m to maybe not get much better, especially if Kemp's defense doesn't improve.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 Cespedes has release clause at end of contract so can't be made qualifying offer after '15 season as fr agt, Porcello can receive QO So, Detroit doesn't have the opportunity to get a draft pick if Cespedes signs elsewhere after 2015. Which is why a couple prospects are coming over with him.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 10:39 AM) I keep hearing a Gerrado Parra signing suggestions on here. Parra is in his 3rd year of arbitration and is still owned by the Brewers. Sure, we could trade for him, but Parra is NOT a free agent. What am I missing? As for Ichiro, as others have said, if he is coming in to be the 4th outfielder and pinch hitter/runner, great. If it is to be the everyday LF, I think we can do much better. It is not the worst idea ever, but I think Rick has bigger plans for LF. Oh, I thought Parra was non-tendered.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 11:21 PM) Dude hit .284 last year Which is like saying that DV hit 21 homers last year. It's the only way you can possibly make an argument that either player contributed anything on offense. And it is incomplete and misleading. He put up an 88 wRC+ and was a -5 defender by UZR for the first time in a while. Ichiro is a legend, but at this stage in his career, I'd MUCH rather we try to sign Gerrardo Parra for similar money.

Sounds like a good deal for both sides. Cespedes replaces Rajai Davis, Porcello replaces Workman or Ranaudo. Both players with one year of control.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 09:09 AM) What were you saying about Freidman?? Yeah, I don't get the Kendrick move. I mean, Kendrick is good, but I thought the whole point of this was to open a slot for Guerrero/Arreubarrena with a sprinkling of Darwin Barney and newly acquired Enrique Hernandez.