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QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 05:37 PM) On what do you base your assumption? He seemed to be getting a little stronger, regaining some of the lost velocity, as well as learning to pitch with the diminished velocity. Why would he now get worse? How? 1st half: 3.99 ERA/4.59 FIP 2nd half: 5.96 ERA/5.04 FIP

QUOTE (kwill @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:38 PM) Here what I don't get about this rumor. Are the Mariners seriously considering putting Nelson Cruz and Dayan Viciedo in the outfield together. It just seems like a potential disaster for them. I believe they've stated publicly that they see Cruz as full-time DH. Could be wrong

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:32 PM) So if you drop the "stretching his arm out to go 6 innings/terrible with the Rangers and Ms" portion, basically Noesi was just about as good as a guy the Tigers had to trade for? I mean how much is that portion? I see that could be a factor, but what is there to suggest that all his good was true talent and all his bad was "stretching out?" In general, it sounds like the most generous possible explanations/justifications for Noesi's poor performance paint him as "not significantly worse" than Simon last year, right?

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:43 PM) I'll make this argument: Noesi is a starter. He is not a reliever. Look at the evidence. His only other decent year was when he started most of the games. Despite a bullpen in tatters what do the Sox do immediately upon claiming this middle reliever? they put him in the rotation and keep him there. I agree. But in that role he was a lot worse than Simon.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) Straight from Dave d the tigers are out on scherzer. Gotta love when your rivals have days like this. Bless you boys is an angry mean place right now. Simon is trash come on I'd rather have Hector he is 8 years younger with a similar 2014! Simon: 3.34 ERA/4.33 FIP/196.1 IP Noesi: 4.75 ERA/4.83 FIP/172.1 IP I'm not saying Simon is awesome, but I don't see any argument at all the he didn't have a substantially better 2014 than Noesi. And it's hard to make any sort of positive argument for Noesi outside of 2014.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 02:33 PM) And you know that how? Dee Gordon made major strides forward last year and while he struggled the year previously when coming up through the Dodgers system he was widely regarded as a top 100 prospect. He was a much different player a year ago and when you combine his speed and value on the paths, he brings a very unique skill-set. Like I said, I would trade Dee Gordon for Howie Kendrick when you consider contracts, etc. Kendrick is a better player but Gordon is on a superior contract. I'm just telling you what's likely based on precedent. He may be awesome despite everything we know about his type of player, certainly, but that's the less likely outcome. Here's a good breakdown from Jeff Sullivan: As is my usual MO, I just have a hard time expecting any specific guy to defy all of baseball history, no matter how big or small a paradigm we're talking about. It does happen, of course, but not very often.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:03 PM) So if I look at the Dodgers...they have lost Dee Brown, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Dan Haren (who was actually pretty darn solid last year). They have added Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Brandon McCarthy, and Grandal. That is relatively lateral, especially from my perspective that Hanley & Kemp are the best players on that entire list, both of whom are out. Have they cut payroll? I don't know. They sent $42M in cash in the two trades ($32M for Kemp + $10M in the Brown/Haren trade) They spent 48M on Bmac (12M this year using a straight average) Jimmy Rollins = +11M Howie Kendrick = +9.35M Grandal = + Hanley Ramirez = -16M Matt Kemp = -21M / -107M Total But Dee Gordon isn't gonna do what he did last year. They essentially had to "replace" that production. And the loss in value for Kemp has to be compared to his replacement, because all those guys can't play at the same time. So they're really not losing all of Kemp's value, they're losing the difference between Kemp's value and Crawford's value, and you can make an argument that the productivity of all the OFs will increase as the logjam lessens.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:20 PM) Other than throwing all of Jerry's money at a Scherzer type of guy, I wouldn't want to give a guaranteed contract to anyone. You have Sale-Shark-Q-Danks to start with, all of whom are basically cemented there. Banks, so long as he's here, has to be in the rotation. Then you have Noesi, who was solid all year and is a great value proposition if he can improve even just modestly from last year. Wouldn't want to release him or anything like that. Ideally, we at least give him a trial run of starts to see if he's for real. Then you have Rodon waiting in the wings for a spot too. We're not super deep, but adding a guaranteed contract player in there could make it where we have guys pitching only because we can't get rid of them (Danks, potential FA) I think you're right if we assume that Danks cannot be moved. I guess I'm still hoping he can

QUOTE (South Sider @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:08 PM) TOO LONG; DIDNT READ Trade Viciedo and Danks Slot Rodon into rotation or find a cheap #5 starter Sign Melky Go to war with Gillaspie and Flowers, provided a player you can't pass up on becomes available (which in all likelihood, won't) I think your evaluation is pretty spot on.

Good for the bullpen, I still think we need a starter. Rienzo doesn't count though.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:51 AM) That's what I meant. My bad. It seems substantially better than Danks and Noesi to me.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:39 AM) Kemp at 77M has a chance to be a legit value and the Padres needed to make a splash. I really don't quite grasp what the Dodgers are doing. I think they are no better today than they were at the end of last year, possibly slightly worse. And on top of that, while getting rid of Kemp's contract, they also have put themselves in a position where they have a couple guys that will be walking a year / getting big contract (Rollins / Kendrick). Yes, Dodgers have guys in place but I think the Angels did best in that 3 team trade. Getting a young cost controlled power arm that is near to big league ready is a major coup for a club like the Angels. Yes, Kendrick was good but with the Angels payroll that move was fantastic, imo. I will say I think Grandal is a pretty darn good player. I also am not a big buyer of the "pitch" frame concept. I think there are significant flaws in the early statistics behind it but I do agree it is an important concept but IIRC, there is a lot of variability depending on the pitch frame / defensive catching metrics that you look at. Idk, I'd say the Dodgers are look roughly as good as last year, despite losing Hanley, and they've done it without trading ANY significant prospects and also cutting significant payroll. What they've lost in offense they've gained back in defense. RE: framing. I think the issue is that Baseball Prospectus has WAY overvalued the level of contribution that framing has, but I don't think there's much, if any, criticism in how they collect and analyze the data. In other words, BP overrates the impact, but they give us a good list of who is best and who is worst.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) Wow. Nice move for Padres. $32M cash and I think they got maximum value for Grandal. I don't like what the Dodgers were doing. I think the exact opposite. Kemp belongs somewhere that he can DH. Grandal actually graded out as one of the best framers in the league last year, Wieland is good but hasn't been able to stay healthy. Given the logjam the Dodgers had in the OF and the pressure they are assumed to be under to reduce payroll, clearing $7m and improving your C situation AND adding quality pitching depth AND some other prospect seems like a coup. The Padres spent $77m to maybe not get much better, especially if Kemp's defense doesn't improve.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 Cespedes has release clause at end of contract so can't be made qualifying offer after '15 season as fr agt, Porcello can receive QO So, Detroit doesn't have the opportunity to get a draft pick if Cespedes signs elsewhere after 2015. Which is why a couple prospects are coming over with him.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 10:39 AM) I keep hearing a Gerrado Parra signing suggestions on here. Parra is in his 3rd year of arbitration and is still owned by the Brewers. Sure, we could trade for him, but Parra is NOT a free agent. What am I missing? As for Ichiro, as others have said, if he is coming in to be the 4th outfielder and pinch hitter/runner, great. If it is to be the everyday LF, I think we can do much better. It is not the worst idea ever, but I think Rick has bigger plans for LF. Oh, I thought Parra was non-tendered.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 11:21 PM) Dude hit .284 last year Which is like saying that DV hit 21 homers last year. It's the only way you can possibly make an argument that either player contributed anything on offense. And it is incomplete and misleading. He put up an 88 wRC+ and was a -5 defender by UZR for the first time in a while. Ichiro is a legend, but at this stage in his career, I'd MUCH rather we try to sign Gerrardo Parra for similar money.

Sounds like a good deal for both sides. Cespedes replaces Rajai Davis, Porcello replaces Workman or Ranaudo. Both players with one year of control.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 09:09 AM) What were you saying about Freidman?? Yeah, I don't get the Kendrick move. I mean, Kendrick is good, but I thought the whole point of this was to open a slot for Guerrero/Arreubarrena with a sprinkling of Darwin Barney and newly acquired Enrique Hernandez.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 09:52 PM) Ortiz's first 5 years yielded a 1.3 OWAR, Dayan's is 2.3. Ortiz did take off in year 6 though. Ortiz's breakout is pretty consistently attributed to moving out of Minnesota, where they were forcing him into an "opposite field approach." Boston just let him slug, and slug he has since done. I don't think there's any reason to believe that Viciedo is in a similar situation.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 12:12 AM) Per Ken Rosenthal, the Dodgers are flipping Andrew Heaney to the Angels. Lol. ...For Howie Hendrick. Wait... what? Why the

The best way to look at this deal, IMO, is that we can have "nice things" because of all the awesome contracts we have on our core pieces. Money is only ever an issue if it stops you from doing something else, and this doesn't even really cover what Sale SHOULD be paid. So this is Hahn's foresight giving him the bonus resources to shore up a big need in a really big way.

The Marlins just got ROBBED. This is just a reminder not to complete a trade with Andrew Friedman. He is ruthless.

It feels weird to think, but I'd want Ackley just to take Viciedo's place in LF. Neither of them are going to hit, but at least Ackley can catch. I also don't see why dumping Viciedo for Ackley precludes us from acquiring a better solution inf LF. It's not like Viciedo is an asset we could put toward a different type of trade. If we swapped those two, we'd immediately improve our defense, and, at worst, find a pretty effective and versatile utility guy for the bench. It's a net gain across the board, if not substantially. You don't have to project improvement to gain in this case.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 03:28 PM) DeShilelds Jr sounds really intriguing. I could 100% see him as a guy the White Sox target. I BELIEVE I've read he's like a 20 makeup guy that scouts think will never reach his ceiling. Possibly why he's unprotected.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Dec 10, 2014 -> 03:27 PM) In those 6.1 innings Noesi gave up an insane amount of runs. His ERA was lime 40 if I remember correctly. He gave up 10 earned runs in 6.1 innings, which I think works out to 14.75. Also, why does he get a free pass on those innings? I'm all about accepting that he changed, but what changed?