thxfrthmmrs

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Sep 2, 2014 -> 03:54 PM) No that's whats free agency is for. Im trading Quintana, with the thought that Rodon will take his spot in the rotation some point during the season. I would sign Brandon McCarthy to a contract and he would be my new number 2 going forward in 2015, and I would sign Brett Anderon to a short term contract (2 years max) that is also heavy on incentives, and if he stays healthy and pitches well I would flip him at the deadline. ROTATION: Sale, McCarthy, Danks, Noesi, Anderson. 1. That's maybe how you would run a team in MLB 2K but not in real life baseball. 2. Let's even say if you got Anderson on a a good deal and he's proven he can stay healthy, you would want to stash him for better value the year following (teams won't pay high prices for a fragile pitcher who's proven he can stay healthy for half a year), or keep him simply because he's good and you are playing to win. 3. It doesn't make sense to start Rodon in the bullpen next year. You'd rather start him in the minors to stretch him out, and let him work on his offspeed stuff, something he doesn't get to do as a reliever. Not to mention it goes against the notion of saving his service time.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 26, 2014 -> 07:00 AM) You still don't quite have it. If he starts with the team next year, he will not be Super 2. To qualify for Super 2 status a player must have more than 2 years, but less than 3 years service time and rank in the top 22% of all 2 years players regarding service time. If he is with the team next year opening day, he would not have enough service time after his 2nd year to qualify for Super 2 as he would just have 2 years and 1 month. Here are the ways his time with the White Sox could be laid out. If he starts with the team next year regardless of whether he comes up in September: 2015: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2016: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2017: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2018: Arbitration 1 2019: Arbitration 2 2020: Arbitration 3 2021: Free Agent If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish): 2015: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2016: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2017: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2) 2019: Arbitration 2 2020: Arbitration 3 2021: Arbitration 4 2022: Free Agent If he comes up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (August-ish): 2015: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2016: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2017: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2018: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2019: Arbitration 1 2020: Arbitration 2 2021: Arbitration 3 2022: Free Agent If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up BEFORE his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish): 2015: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2016: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2017: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2018: Arbitration 1 (Super 2) 2019: Arbitration 2 2020: Arbitration 3 2021: Arbitration 4 2022: Free Agent If he doesn't come up in September and doesn't start with the team next year but gets called up AFTER his Super 2 cutoff (July-ish): 2015: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2016: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2017: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2018: Team Control (near minimum salary) 2019: Arbitration 1 2020: Arbitration 2 2021: Arbitration 3 2022: Free Agent While it may seem like a good idea to hold off on calling him up until after opening day next year because you push his FA date out until 2022, a good portion of that extra year will be spent in the minors and you will end up paying him a hell of lot if he qualifies for Super 2 because of the 4 years of arbitration. If he doesn't qualify for Super 2, you're waiting until the season is more than half over so he spent the majority of the time in that "extra" year pitching in the minors. I think the best thing to do is just call him up in September to let him get his feet wet, start him next year with the big league team to go through the growing pains and then in 2016 we should be ready to compete and Rodon will have a year plus experience and should be ready to really help the team. So if I am reading this correctly, in the scenario of whether we call up Rodon or not in September, it doesn't really change his service time as long as we don't start him next year? This seems to be against the rationale that the team is not calling up Rodon and so his service clock won't start this year. (Also note that I along with most people think that he will get called up in June, which would be before the Super 2 cut off and we won't get that extra year of team control)

We know he has a big fastball and he can strike guys out. I am just happy that he didn't have the jitters of pitching in AA for the first time and walked a bunch of guys. Pretty promising start.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 08:33 PM) One irony? The O's have 3 quality OF's and a couple days ago someone here suggested signing one of their OF/DH types, Delmon Young, this offseason was a good idea. Wow, still going with this? ADA will not being taking AB's from Delmon Young. Young will still be their primary DH. The Orioles needed a 4th outfielder, their 4th OF was Steve Pearce, but now he's playing 1B with Chris Davis shifted to 3B after Machado going down. Young is still the starting DH for a first place team for the record, and he's holding his own.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 02:01 PM) Most use FanGraphs. I used BaseballReference, went to Tyler Flowers' batting page, moused over "splits", hit "2014", and it gave me his monthly stats. I had to add his hits and divide them by ABs, though. Or you can just go to his BR gamelog, click on a game as the start date, then click on a second game as his end date

Perhaps the Sox are looking at the bigger picture here, knocking Scherzer around and knock his contract next year into their price range? /green

If Sale gets his s*** together he still has a shot at the Cy Young. Felix has been pretty bad the last 3 starts.

QUOTE (BaconOnAStick @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 01:02 AM) Baserunning, sure. I'll give you that. But this PREMIUM DEFENSIVE POSITION REPLACEMENT LEVEL crap has to stop. Any player who can hit like Abreu holds tremendous value, I'd go so far as to say unequaled value. Abreu is the only player, regardless of position slugging above .600. Not only that, he's the only one even close. He's the only player in baseball that has even a remote chance of an OPS over 1.000. He leads MLB in wOBA and WRC+ too, lack of baserunning and all. It doesn't matter what position Abreu plays, he is cramming much more offense than anyone else in baseball into one spot in the lineup. There are plenty of teams that are not getting Abreu like production out of their 4 and 5 hitters combined (totally unverified claim). Don't give me the "well you see Trout plays center and the average center fielder can't hit near as well as the average first...", Abreu so far out classes what anyone in baseball does with the bat arguments over positional semantics are worthless. I think there a bit too much homerism in this post. The difference between Abreu and Trout's wOBA and wRC+ is miniscue compared to the difference between their WAR, despite the fact that Trout actually has a -7 UZR this year, and also the gap between their individual team success is also significant. The media will also sway toward Trout because he's overdue for the award, while Abreu hasn't really been getting any hype as the best player in baseball. I expect Trout to win by a landslide, unless Abreu somehow wins the Triple Crown

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 09:34 AM) This is how I would describe a "run producer" as well. I still prefer the term "good hitter." Also, against RHP - which is all I've ever advocated using him against - his wRC+ is 123. You prefer higher, but that'd be right around 51st in the majors. It'd be nice to have someone better hitting cleanup, or to add another big bat, but if he's hitting 5th or 6th for you against righties, you can still have a pretty good lineup. Unless he's brought back at a insanely good deal next year, something around $5 mil. Paying a number 6 hitter who can neither play defense nor hit lefties any more than that would be a bad deal. Also, we do not have a lot position player who are "good hitters" that you can put at the cleanup spot. Deploying a DH who's only an "average hitter" would put more pressure on Hahn to add a catcher or LF who's also a great hitter, which would be more expensive.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 09:36 AM) Unless you're willing to bat Gillaspie 3rd, you have to convince Robin it's ok to have back to back lefties. Good luck. I think we will see Semien getting a lot of looks at #2 in September. If he gets on base at the rate he did in Tripe A, he will be an ideal fit. I'd like to see Eaton Semien Abreu Gillaspie Garcia Dunn Ramirez Flowers Sanchez

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 08:33 AM) I've been arguing this whole time and I still don't understand what exactly a "run producer" is. I mean, in 2004, Barry Bonds hit .362/.609/.812/1.422 with 45 homers but he only drove in 101 runs. He also scored 84 runs when he wasn't trotting slowly around the bases. But did he produce those runs or did someone else? So what is a run producer? I hate using the phrase because it can mean anything. I like using "good hitter" much more. Sounds like you want to measure run production based on wRC+ instead of RBI's Dunn wRC+: 114 - Good for 49 out of 152 total qualified player in the league. Puts him on even ground with Denard Span and Coco Crisp Gillaspie wRC+: 122 Sandoval WRC+: 116 And 2002 Bonds wRC+: 244 In summary, Dunn's run creation in 2014 is above league average compared to all qualified hitters, but it's considerably low for a middle of the order bat.

Adolfo's ISO is up to about .160 now, that's impressive for a 17 year old first year player who's playing against competition 2-3 years older than him. His power is legit, if he cuts his K% down to a respectable rate next year, you will start seeing him in many Top 100 list.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 05:27 PM) Probably wrong here, but judging by Adams twitter, he seems to be goin through a bit of a rough patch. Questioning who his real friends are, saying he hopes it all works out one day, asking himself why all the time, and retweeting some sad stuff. Now I fancy myself the Dr. Phil of NWI, and from what I've gathered, he either broke up with his girl or he was chasing after a girl he liked, got friend zoned and is taking it hard. Probably wrong on that being the reason, but who knows maybe the kid is emotionally fragile when it comes to the ladies and his minds not right right now... Are you sure you're following the person? I will not live to believe that a professional pitcher can be exempt from starts just because he was friend zoned by a girl? I mean wth is the girl thinking about?

YES! I love that he's getting a shot, though I think he can still use some seasoning in AFL before he's ready, and the timing isn't the most ideal since he was hit around pretty bad his last start and now has to face a Detroit team that's on a mission

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 10:25 PM) The Sox have both Sale and Q. Rodon has a ceiling of being another Chris Sale. The Cubs have nothing in pitching that approaches that. The Sox are definitely better at pitching, I am not doubting that. The core of Sale, Q and Rodon, with soon to be arriving Danish, Montas, Adams, and even Martinez and Guerrero, our pitching potential is ways ahead. But I think folks are off base when they say Cubs have no pitching depth on their side. Arrieta, Wada, Hendricks, CJ Edwards, Pierce Johnson, Rondon at closer, and the potential of Jacob Turner is nothing to slouch at.

I think some of you are sleeping on Arrieta, Wada, and Hendricks. I think 2 of those 3 could turn out to be quality starters, and all should be very controllable for the foreseeable future. God forbids if they are able to turn Jacob Turner around. Cubs also have a closer who has a chance to be electric in Hector Rondon, who throw 98 mph and has been dominant for the past two months. At the end of the day, I think in terms of potential, it's definitely the Cubs. But potential is a dangerous word in sports. The Sox's "core" is more proven at this point

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 03:34 PM) I don't think that does it alone. 2 bullpen arms, one of whom is a closing candidate, would IMO have pushed us up to an adequate bullpen this year but it wouldn't have been above average. That'd be maybe 4 decent relievers in the pen, the 2 FA signees, Putnam, and Petricka. Better than this year but still missing a lot of parts. I lost track of how many games we blew because of bullpen issues, and our backend starting pitching has been spotty at best. I'd focus our needs around pitching this offseason if I were Hahn. One of the primary reasons for the bullpen's downfall is guys were asked to do more than they are capable of. If we stabilize the pen with a couple of high leverage inning guys, I think that puts us in a good spot, and put the other guys in a better position to succeed. Plus, bullpen is one of those areas that can be significantly improved from year to year. If we go for a pen of: Closer: Romo/Petricka Andrew Miller Romo/Petricka Putnam Lindstrom Guerra/Webb Snodgress This should at least be a league average bullpen. (Anything without Beli, Cleto, Veal, Thompson, and guest appearances from Leury and Dunn for that matter) And replacing Carrol with Shield is a significant upgrade, no justification needed. Marcus Semien. Kid is ready, and he's a high IQ player who can at least provide league average defense in outfield. Rotate Wilkins, Young, and Gillapsie. I think it's time to move away from the full time DH philosophy. Rotating DH should gives us better defensive flexibility and matchup options. The combination of Dunn and Konerko has yield a negative offensive value for us this year (despite Dunn's moment of brilliance), I can't see this option being any worse than this year. Offense from catching has gone down league wide. I'd give a full year for Tyler with his magical glasses. Defensively, he's been good. It's too early to label those two as injury prones. Their injuries this year were flukes. If you run this organization, you have to build this team with faith that these two can stay healthy. Otherwise, you'd look to replace them. Fair point. But I'd like to note that part of Gillaspie's success is a result of him cutting down his K%, which is more align with his career number in the minors than last year's %. He might not hit .320 again, but .280-10-60 still within reach. Gordon's set the bar so low offensively, there is no reason to think Sanchez/Micah can't at least replicate or top that. I'd like to hear your plan for this off season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 02:58 PM) Basically just right there it looks like you're talking about 5+ different free agent signings led by a top of the rotation starter. Do you see why this is getting really rough? And just the guys you listed right there don't include the DH you want and that leaves Viciedo/De Aza as a weakness in the corner OF. If you want to go from a below .500 team to a playoff contender, you got to make moves. Has it ever not been the case? What's the alternative? Wait on your prospects like the Pirates and Royals did? If there's ever a time to make moves, it's this off season. We have ~$55-60 mil committed (including pre-arb, and arb guys in Flowers, Jones, and Noesi) next year. We won't have to risk losing a pick in signing guys, and division is as wide open as ever. With the money coming off the books, it's almost guaranteed we will spend money somewhere, I don't think the guys I am proposing is considered asking for the moon, considering it's 1 starter, 2 bullpen arms, part time DH, and 2 bench players who could be sourced from the farm.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 02:09 PM) Worth noting a couple instant problems. Delmon Young has only 200 plate appearances this season, and Adam Dunn is already an above average DH offensively. The reason Young is worth more in WAR than Dunn is that Dunn is a slightly worse fielder. He's also been worse than Dunn the last 2 seasons. Decent chance if you gave him 400+ PA's as your DH that you're talking about a negative value player there as well. Sergio Romo + Andrew Miller this year = 1.4 WAR, not 3. That just proves that you can't look at WAR by itself, because on paper, Young is a +1 WAR player and Dunn is at 0 WAR. The Red Sox, for instance, has a higher team WAR than the Yankees, but they are 11 games worse. Regardless of WAR, I like the prospects of Delmon Young at DH because he historically does very well vs lefties, and you can have him for cheap. Platoon him with Wilkins or whoever, we should have solid offense and also defensive flexibility compared to just Dunn and Konerko, at a fraction of the cost. Romo is having a bad season, but is historically a 1+ WAR player, I think this is the time to get him for cheap. Generally if you spend $5 mil+ for a reliever, you'd expect quality one. I am also underestimating the improvement the collective group of Eaton, Garcia, Sanchez, and Semien is going to make, but you get the point. If we can get a #2 or 3 starter, a couple of quality bullpen arms, solidify our bench, and the young guys take a step forward next year, there's no reason this team can't compete next year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 12:57 PM) The only way it makes sense to me to go after a guy like Shields, especially given his age, is if John Danks is cleared out of the rotation or there is some other trade that clears a spot. I continue to say that spending $15 million+ on the upgrade from Noesi to Shields is a drop in the bucket move with as many other issues as this team has. It picks up ~2 WAR. This team is >> 2 WAR from being competitive for a playoff spot. I think WAR is a nice tool to evaluate an individual player, but I don't think it directly correlates to actual wins. But if you want to measure next year's potential team by WAR, we can Replacing Carrol with Shields = +3 WAR Replacing blackholes in bullpen with let's say Andrew Miller and Sergio Romo = +3 WAR Replacing Dunn (0 WAR) with league average DH, let's say Delmon Young = +1 WAR Replacing Leury Garcia, Paul Konerko (- 2 WAR) with let's say Bonifacio or Saladio and Wilkins = +2 WAR (assuming they will be 0 WAR players) Having a full year of Sanchez, Eaton, Avi, Semien, over Beckham, De Aza, and Viciedo, I am projecting + 1.5 WAR This currently a 18.5 WAR team according to Fangraphs, + 11.5 WAR increase, will put us ahead of teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, and Mariners.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 12:42 PM) If Rodon is deserving of a spot in the rotation, Rodon will have a spot in the rotation. C'mon man. There is no team in baseball with too much starting pitching. And no team in baseball keeps Carlos Rodon in the minors if he is ready because of guys like Hector Noesi or other mediocrity like him. Just name one season with one team where a spot wouldn't be open for Rodon if he was ready. The Sox have Sale, Q, and then a bunch of guys who can't hold Rodon's jock. Any team that banks on having 5 starters all year long is probably in for a long season. I think the 2005 White Sox tied a record with 6. This. If we want to compete, then let Rodon earn a spot, instead of not signing another quality starter and roll both Carrol and Noesi out there and hope Rodon will be ready at some point.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 12:35 PM) That's fine. But you can't rely on those things to happen in order to clear Rodon a rotation spot unless you're willing to keep him in the minors the whole year if they don't happen. If Noesi has a solid start and shows he's learning how to be a better starter, do you keep Rodon in AAA the full year? If Sale doesn't get hurt, do you keep Rodon in AAA the whole year? If the goal is for Rodon to enter the rotation you can't have him in a place where you're counting on one of those things to happen. Those issues are an argument that we should have a backup plan other than Rodon if the goal is for him to be in the big leagues early next season. My original premise is I believe Hahn should pull the trigger this off season and turn this team into a playoff contender, and I believe it doesn't require a complete overhaul. Though I believe a solid number 2 starter, i.e. Jame Shields, is a must (I still believe Q is more of a 3 than 2). If our goal is to be competitive, we can't center our roster moves around when or how exactly to bring up Rodon. If we believe he's ready to start next year, then maybe we do not need to sign a starter. However, if he needs some fine tuning in the minors, then yes, this team absolutely needs to bring in a guy like Shields. We will bring up Rodon when he's ready and when there is a need for him on the team. And as I said, I think it's highly likely we will be able to insert him into the rotation one way or another. And if he isn't ready to start next year and we do not have a open spot for him mid season, I am completely fine with leaving him down in the minors until September and bring him up to fortify our bullpen for a playoff run. If we want to compete next year, we can't save a roster spot for Rodon and wait till he's ready to take it.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 26, 2014 -> 04:35 PM) Not if we want a rotation spot for Carlos Rodon early next year. If Rodon is in the minors for all of 2015 fine, but if Noesi was just doing what he was doing right now for the Sox next year, replacing him with a rookie would be something of a "white flag" move, a step backwards mid-season. It's not a stretch to imagine Noesi struggling next year. I wouldn't also bank on the other 4 starters staying healthy the entire year, especially Sale.

QUOTE (Sox Fan In Husker Land @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 07:40 AM) Since July 4th at AAA Charlotte, Semien has the following line in 50 games: .317 AVG .431 OBP .562 SLG .245 ISO .387 BABIP 225 PA 183 AB 58 H 35 BB 33 K 41 R 14 2B 2 3B 9 HR 33 RBI 6 SB 0 CS 4 HBP 3 SF I am pretty sure his BABIP is .340, not .387 I dont think this is a fluke stretch by any means. With guys like him and Micah, it take a while for them to adjust to the league, and once they adjust, they will stay consistent and rarely go on extended slumps.

QUOTE (knightni @ Aug 26, 2014 -> 03:25 PM) I'm not sure if he's a good enough catcher or a powerful enough DH. His ISO is around .240 both last year and this year. Consider Abreu's current ISO is at .290 and Dunn is at .200, he's got plenty of pop. He's going into Arb next year and isn't eligible for FA until 2019, so I think he's gotta cost us at least Montas or Danish +