If you had to start a playoff series tomorrow with Danks, Quintana, Sale and Verlander (assuming all are equally rested), what order are you putting them in?
No, based on your assumptions your math is correct.
60% chance he goes 1 means there is a 40% chance he does not.
50% chance he goes 2 if available means that there is a 20% chance he goes 2 and a 20% chance he slips beyond 2
50% chance he goes 3 if available means that there is a 10% chance he goes 3 and a 10% chance he slips beyond 3.
I'm not judging your assumptions one way or the other, just saying that based on your assumptions the math works out.
Another waste of time: You fill out an online job application that asks for a salary requirement. You fill in the salary requirement, get called for an interview, have the interview, and then get told that the starting salary for the position is 30% less than the amount you listed on the application. I actually asked the guy if he was too ignorant to notice my answer to too stupid to realize that he couldn't get me down 30% from that number.
OK fine, they should have drafted better, nobody disagrees with that, but that doesn't change the reality that in July 2013, dumping Rios for Garcia was the best move because it allowed the Sox to get Abreu.
I would put Abreu above Alexei, but I agree with your premise. The MLB average OPS for SS is .685. Alexei is sitting on .830 right now. If anything, I'm offering Alexei an extension through 2018 with 2019 option to line him up with Sale, Abreu and Quintana.