The Ultimate Champion

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 04:55 PM) Vlad is the rare exception. Think about all the free-swinging types. Only one of them ended up being as good as Vlad. Vlad also didn't have four other free swingers surrounding him in the order so pitchers had to throw him strikes. Viciedo will never reach his full potential batting between AJ and Alexei. It all runs together. If Dayan lays off some of the terrible pitches he goes after & also relaxes a bit in the box, he'll stay in his ABs longer, which will lead to more walks, more hits, more power. That increase in BA, OBP, SLG will move him up in the order into more of an RBI position, which will make him even more dangerous and harder to pitch to. Right now Dayan is getting himself out more than the opposition is. The scouting report is getting him out, not necessarily great pitches. Viciedo looks like he feels the pressure & that's not going to work for him. With his bat speed and power the other way he shouldn't have to jump out guessing fastball trying to hit it 700 ft. He needs to learn he can take a pitch, not necessarily to draw a walk, but to prevent the opposition from getting ahead of him without having to throw the ball in the zone. I cited Vlad because Vlad is proof you don't need great discipline to be an elite hitter. Vlad would regularly go after the face-high fastball 2-0, start the AB off by swinging at a slider in the dirt in the LH batters box to go 0-1, etc. even when he was going good. Remember how badly the Angels fans wanted him gone after the Sox pitching staff completely worked him over in the 2005 ALCS? All plate disciple is is a combination of composure, smarts, knowledge of the game, strikezone, and situation, an understanding of the way the opposition pitches you, plus the eye. Viciedo has that eye and he shows it with his bat, but he just gets over aggressive. Because of that aggressive nature he's never going to be patient enough to walk a ton, but all the other stuff that he needs to be a more disciplined hitter can come with time and experience if he has the mental capacity for it. As a fan none of us know enough about him to just assume those other things won't come. The OBP, BB, etc. are just results & you can't necessarily condemn a talented young hitter for lack of ideal results because you have to give him time to develop into that kind of player. To me he seems like a good clubhouse type who adjusts well; the OF adjustment defensively and the increase in BB totals plus his continual advancement through the system into the Major Leagues (and producing there) seems to indicate a player with the capacity to continue to learn and make adjustments. In terms of his hitting tools there is no reason to doubt his potential. The bottom line is he's a productive young player who is young and has the potential to be worth a ton. Giving up on him is good why? We need cheap, young, cost-effective, team-controllable talent whether we want to contend or rebuild or do a bit of both. And if you trade Viciedo for a better player *right now* then you are talking about a player who will likely be a lot more expensive, under control for fewer years, and also probably older, probably in his prime or close to it, rather than several years out (at least as an offensive force). The only justifiable deal for Viciedo is if you trade him for another young, cheap, team-controllable player who also has serious potential. But if you are going to try to make that type of deal, and if you are making it simply because the ideal results aren't there right now, then the only deal you're going to find is another extremely talented player who is also producing under his potential, and again, you do that why? You only make that deal if you know something about his character/mental state/attitude, which none of us would know anything about. If I had Starlin Castro I'd trade him. Viciedo hasn't shown himself to be anything like that.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 02:30 PM) It wouldn't be a stupid, reactionary move. Yes I get that Viciedo is young, but there's no guarantee that he learns plate discipline and he's not going to be an elite player without it. Like I said earlier, you can make a good, sound, argument for keeping any one of the five, but keeping all five of them or even four is suicide. Some guys have to go. First I would question what you consider "plate discipline" to be because this actually goes quite a bit beyond the numbers under the "BB" and "OBP" columns on the back of a baseball card. Secondly, as one example, Vladimir Guerrero was an elite hitter who swung at absolutely everything & whose OBP was weighted heavily by his batting average. Vlad never walked because he had this great "plate discipline," he walked because he was dangerous & pitchers pitched him that way. Viciedo in his brief career has an OBP 43 points above his BA (Vlad's career was 61) but as dangerous as Viciedo is, if he just learns to lay off the *terrible* pitches he will find himself in hitters counts much more often leading to both a higher walk total and a higher batting average to raise the OBP. As a LF with a gun for an arm with big power to the opposite field who is under team control for a long time, I have to ask you who do you think we could deal Viciedo for and get similar all-around value dollar for dollar spent? Because the players other teams would trade for him are probably very good players who are already getting paid like very good players and that right there isn't going to help unless you decide to shorten your contention window to 2013-14, and right now, it seems likely we'll be looking at an offseason that would in theory lead to a contention window of 2014+. As for the bolded part, not if you plan on contending. If you want to continue to go young, then yes, some players have to go. That's just how it works.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 08:46 AM) Burnsauce? More like bansauce You have to do a lot to get banned here. There was once a poster I new here who would make a post believing he'd get banned, and then after it he wouldn't get banned, and the he'd go "WTF how come I can still post here?!" and then he'd go back to posting. Of course I've never done anything like that myself & all my posts are on point and terrific but the point remains the same: it's hard to get hit with the ban hammer here.

I don't want to keep Viciedo because of his emotional value. I want to keep Viciedo because I'm against stupid, reactionary moves by the GM of my favorite baseball team. Viciedo has been one of the key guys giving away ABs. That's because he's young. Alexei OTOH? I will actually agree with you there, but not with your line of reasoning. Alexei is getting more expensive and his value has been more due to his defense. A cheap, defense-first SS at the league minimum could be had for one of our pitchers, and if you can get a good pitching prospect for Alexei then you've very likely come out ahead as far as payroll room gained. Lose a pitcher, gain a pitching prospect + payroll space while downgrading a bit offensively while (theoretically) making a short defensive downgrade now but a defensive upgrade 2 years from now and beyond. The key comes down to our scouts & front office personnel identifying the right players.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 12:41 PM) All season long, there's never been a single answer provided for who could or should play LF or SS more competently than Viciedo (and cheaper, with more upside offensively) or Ramirez, were they to actually be traded. If you can make such a "keen" and astute observation that they both need to go, then how can you not at least have any suggestion for what would be a better, more effective line-up, given the salary constraints we're still going to be operating under...knowing payroll will not expand with the disappointing ending to the season and essentially unchanged season ticket base? Anyone can go to ESPN or baseball-reference or fangraphs and pull up OBP numbers, or OPS, or WAR, righty/lefty splits or whatever. That's the easy part. The hard part is fitting them into a winning, cohesive formula. Cot's baseball contracts is also your friend. The story's no longer that our future looks as bleak as the Astros. It's that we still have a tremendous amount of question marks going forward, but a much better farm system than a year ago, particularly in regards to OF prospects and at least a few decent starting pitching prospects, not to mention a plethora of good relief arms. I luuuv caulfield. We're in a great spot right now. And I'd like to point to your comment re: stathead, fantasy baseball-style team construction and how useless it is most of the time, because that's something we may need to watch with Hahn. I'm hoping the Santos-for-Molina deal which Kenny didn't seem too clued in on is not a sign of things to come with Hahn, or if it is, that Molina has a better arm than what I've seen (albeit in brief). I love Kenny's tools first, stats second approach and I hope that doesn't change.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 12:57 PM) As I noted in my OBP thread, Ramirez and Viciedo are two of five guys who are collectively dragging the offense down with poor OBP. I stopped short of saying exactly which two need to go because I don't know what trades and FA signings are realistic. I think in a perfect world AJ stays because his offense is so hard to get from the catcher position and Alexei stays because his defense is so damn good. Beckahm is the biggest offensive liability but then he's also the least expensive and plays a position that seems very think league-wide right now. If you can't make reasonable upgrades at two of the five positions, then might as well get what you can for all five and start from scratch. Selling on Gordon right now would be a major mistake IMO. His value isn't going to be great & he's close to turning the corner according to Manto. And if you can view things from a baseball-wide, all-around perspective, his defense saves us runs his bat doesn't create, and the power makes up for some of those singles that other 2nd basemen get that he doesn't. He could be our new Joe Crede as far as the time required to bloom. It isn't even worth discussing moving Viciedo. Alexei, maybe, if the offer is right. And is this **really** the time to b**** about poor OBP dragging the lineup down? We've had all kinds of men on base and in scoring position lately. What we need are players who aren't going to give ABs away in crunch time.

Marty34's posts read a lot better when you soak a rag in paint thinner and stuff it in your mouth. It's a lil bit nauseating at first but if you poke yourself in the bum while you're doing it then the good and bad kinda equalize and you end up feeling.... just average really. But at least it doesn't suck anymore.

After going 1-7 since their last winning streak I'm not sure their faint little hearts are capable of a rally. Right now I'm just looking for them to hold on to their feeding tubes & prey the angels/Adam Corolla goes away. That said, I'm in. Lets get it together and win some games you pathetic, undesirable bastards. Edit: Where the flip is my avatar?! If I don't see my avatar I'm gonna grab me some Smirnoff Vodka.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Sep 27, 2012 -> 11:17 AM) Then what happened to Jermaine Dye. JD ended his career because he didn't want to take a part time role as a DH. He had the same type of half season that Thome had here, AJ had here, Paulie has had here, etc. where the whole board cried "Done"! due to age. All of those players rebounded with nice full seasons afterwards and there is no reason to believe that after that great first half that year JD wouldn't have done the same elsewhere.

This race reminds me of the Monthy Python skit where they held a race full of competitors with no general sense of direction.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Sep 26, 2012 -> 03:30 PM) So a general question.. do you prefer a guy who's got a line of .210 41hr and 94 rbi or .270 25hr and 70 rbi is it more valuable to have a guy who hits 15 more hr's and drives in 24 more runs or a guy who gets an extra 30-40 hits per year? Depends on team balance. If you have a couple of the former then you're going to need one of the later, and vice versa. At least in the AL & especially in this ballpark.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 22, 2012 -> 10:18 AM) All that said, the Tigers are going to be much more formidable next season....there's no doubt about that. No doubt about it? This is baseball. The Tigers *could* have been better this year, having replaced VMart with Prince, adding Anibal Sanchez midseason, etc. but steps back from Avila, Boesch, Raburn, etc. have them where? They have more talent this year than they did last, but last year they stepped up & played like men when it mattered & they won their division outright. This year every time they get near the front of the line they stumble and have to stop to change their underwear. Next years team, for all we know, could be a 78-game winner. There is never any reason for a GM or an organization to form it's plans even slightly based on what another division rival may or may not do in the future. That's a loser's mentality. All we have to do as an organization is figure out which way is best for now & the future, and economics & this year's attendance is certainly going to play a role in that, and then whatever course is decided, we need to add the most talent possible in the most cost efficient manner possible both in terms of payroll and prospects traded.

We're in a great spot right now, better than it has been in a long while for us. We have 2 very clear potential courses of action. We have lots of youth, lots of 1-year remaining players, lots of free agents with money coming off the books, and a few veterans we will be able to either deal off or try to win around. The rest of the season and the playoffs will help decide what direction we'll go in. KW/Hahn aren't going to be handcuffed this year; if they wanted to move Dunn and/or Rios they could, and Gavin's value is going to be pretty clear (a couple decent specs, nothing more) so the decision on him should come quickly. OTOH, if they want to bring in a couple veterans, bring AJ back, etc. they can. Flowers is nice trade bait if he's not going to be your 2013 starter. We also have been going in the right direction on the farm & this last draft was a breath of fresh air, same with all the signings in international free agency this year. The farm is producing talent, and even though it's hard under any circumstances to sign and develop impact players, we're at least adding potential impact prospects who will accrue the value needed to bring back good, proven MLB players in their prime. There's no need for doom and gloom. Besides, I'm sure Hahn wants to put his stamp on this team, and running it into the ground with 90+ losses each year probably isn't on the agenda. I doubt JR wants to see it either. We should either look to contend next year (nothing wrong with that) or potentially sacrifice 2013 for an extended playoff window in 2014 and beyond (nothing wrong with that either).

Greg makes sense though. Maybe instead of "reasonable person" you say "outside observer." You would expect such a person to assume that with 2 good teams playing each other (Sox at Angels) in a 3-game series, the home team would win 2 of 3, while with one good team at home playing a bad team (Tigers hosting the Twins) the good team would take 2 of 3 or sweep. And I hope none of that happens.

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 11:14 AM) Never heard that one before. If it hangs that far down (ala AJ) it becomes a possibility.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 04:45 PM) Do you guys agree our games have had horrible flow to them since our starters have failed to get through five innings? Robin refuses to let guys pitch a full inning of relief it seems to me and we're going lefty/righty and it is miserable baseball. I hope this is an aberration and he returns to letting relievers pitch full innings next season. I despise this kind of baseball. It's OK in the eighth leading up to the closer in the ninth but I hate this kinda ball. Set up men are supposed to set up for the f***ing closer. Do you guys agree???? I think it's Reed causing a good amount of this, and frankly, I like what Robin has been doing lately as far as trying to make his saves as easy as possible. If Reed were good for a full inning then I think you could count on the others more for full innings. Also, Thornton IMO still needs to be protected. He has been crisp lately, with his breaking ball actually looking like a breaking ball & popping the glove with the fastball, and I think you need to do whatever you think you need to do to have the good Thornton playoff ready.

QUOTE (Cali @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 03:00 PM) So if we're all in agreement that the records against KC and Detroit show this team has certain mental handicaps and after all that they are STILL in first and STILL control their destiny, if they make the playoffs wouldn't the 11-4 record against the Yankees and Texas being a mental advantage? I'd take that trade any day of the week. Or does certain records against certain teams only work if its a negative? I think that helps a TON in Game 1. What worries me is Game 2, if Game 1 doesn't go they way they'd like it to. I also think it's great if you're in the 2nd inning down 1-2 runs, but it's a bad thing if you're in a tie game in the 7th with runners on 2nd & 3rd with 1 out, and you're at the plate but the momentum is on the other side. AJ said earlier in an interview that there are no more moral victories, all that matters now are wins and losses. I disagree. There are definitely moral victories & the Sox own play indicates that. I mean, there must be moral victories if there are morally devastating losses, right? The one big positive going forward is that we are done with KC, Detroit, and Baltimore. A very strong finish that includes good baseball through and through with minimal mental mistakes by both our players and coaching staff could get us on the right kind of roll we need to be on to have success in the postseason.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 02:28 PM) Ultimate - I don't know at what point in this season you thought the sox were some sort of world beaters, but I never really drank that kool aid. They've been streaky all year - not as great as their 16-4 runs but obviously not as bad as their 3-11 runs either. I never thought this team had what it took to compete with New York and Texas, in particular, even though we've handled them head to head all year. However, I do feel a division title would be a nice thing and playoff revenue would be even better, would set up next year as an improvement to the attendance and further sell the sox as the legitimate baseball team in this city, which I feel is somewhat crucial. I feel as though the past 8 years or so the Sox have made great strides compared to the cubs in generating interest in young fans/kids, as the cubs just keep treading water when they're good and bumbling toward disaster when they're bad. I agree that a division title is a big plus for this organization ATM no matter what the circumstances are. Here's what gets me: earlier this season (and well through July) this team, at least to me, had the feel of something special. I'll liken it to a magic potion by a wizard, in that you (as KW) put on a sparkly hat adorned with little stars, grab some toads feet and dragons blood and lizard tongue and so on and you just starting mixing this crap together. KW is like an alchemist with really no idea WTF he's mixing (grab a vet here, a rookie there, a minor league A-baller here, a potential washed-up veteran there, etc.) but he just mixes this stuff together in his big cauldron, year after year, without rhyme or reason, allthewhile hoping for gold. This year I thought he had maybe found that gold, that magic mix that fails horribly 95% of the time but, every blue moon, creates something special. I have that feeling about Baltimore & Washington this year, and it's a feeling I had about the Sox. I **expect** a division title this year simply because the Tigers aren't good enough to get there, but what I **want** as a fan is another feel good season capped by a legitimate run in the playoffs. What made that '05 team so special, and what made us so special earlier on, was that we'd end those bad feelings & get on a good roll. We can't do that anymore. We almost did, ending the Tigers part of the season with a nice win in a playoff type atmosphere, and then back it up with a win in KC, but instead of winning that series and putting all that bad behind us, we go and give another game away. That's the sign of a nothing special playoff team. I think we can be better than that & that's what is driving me crazy. I don't want to just take a division title the Tigers gave us, I want us to win it on our own, and then carry some momentum into the postseason. End rant.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:31 PM) prior to August 56-47 = .543 winning percentage August 1st on 25-21 = .543 winning percentage .543 winning percentage = 88 win season. Exactly what drop off is there from whatever you expected I also like the way you conveniently disregard some sort of dropoff/statistical correction to variance after a 6 game winning streak If your point is that this team isn't fading because they're still on track for the playoffs then I disagree. They beat a team that they've destroyed all year, a bad team that has rolled over for us time and again. When facing good teams in tight situations we haven't been able to get it done in weeks. Sale & Quintana need the rest, and with rosters expanded now would be a great time to set the playoff roster. The Tigers have pretty much done everything they can to give us a comfortable lead and we can't take it. We've been playing like crap under pressure. Play under pressure vs. quality opposition is much more indicative of team quality than just record, and at this point I really don't care about winning the division, I expect it, I want a team that is going to do something in the playoffs. These guys are faders until they prove they're not. Finish very strong & I'll feel good about this team, but right now these guys have no gumption, no sac, no nuts, no nothing.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:17 PM) Um, that's delusional. The Sox nearly choked the division away. We were on pace to win a lot more than 99. I remember the atmosphere on this board quite well. Yeah like it's normal for teams to have 110 win seasons. Sox had one bad month where they went 12-16 in August. They played 7 over ball from September on. Cleveland played 38-16 ball through August & September. The Sox had one 7-game losing streak in August that hurt their record. They didn't choke, they cooled off, and Cleveland turned it up.

16-12 in August 9-9 in September That's 4 over .500 since July, which IMO says more bad about the Tigers than good about us Since our last 6 game win streak Aug 20-26 we lost 3 of 4 to Baltimore, went 2-5 against the Tigers and 2-4 against the Royals. The only thing we've done right is go 5-1 vs. the Twins over that span. But yeah, great team here. I guess I'm just a pessimist.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:04 PM) You mean under the pressure, for example, to win the last game of the year against Detroit? You mean the '05 team that let a 15 game divisional lead dwindle down to a point that game 159 was still meaningful? I think people forget that the '05 team was exactly 1 game over .500 in August and September combined. This White Sox team is 3 games over .500 since August 1st. Cleveland played out of their minds, the Sox never faded. We won 99 games that year. This year we'll be lucky to win 88.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 12:53 PM) I don't think the Sox should have gone 11-5 vs. Texas & the Yankees, so we should probably give a few of those games back, right? The Sox are great at playing on a high. All good teams are supposed to be that way & even a lot of bad teams are like that. The problem is we have trouble coming back from the lows, and when the pressure is on it it's even worse. You always hear Hawk talk about how important it is for baseball players to have a short memory & not to take their gloves to the plate or bats to the field; we seem to take the events of a past series with us, and when we get in a tough spot, we can't relax and so we try to do too much. Perfect example was last night. We won 5 in a row and then drop a game to KC. Last night we had the chance to take the series & start a new streak while picking back up that game the Tigers took. KC only scored 4 runs all game & they gave us 3. That's only 2 runs we need to score on our own to win, and we can't do it. Now, instead of heading into Anaheim to play a tough, extremely talented team on the road on a high, we have to right the ship there. That's the sign of a fading team, it's just that Detroit is also fading, and if you're an honest outside observer, neither team should be good enough to force either the Yankees or Baltimore to play a WC game.

The inability to beat KC & Detroit (and Baltimore also) pretty much removes that "resiliency" tag that has been on the team most of the year. And yes, it's true that everyone is 0-0 when postseason play starts, but given the way we can enter a series we're supposed to win already mentally defeated, does anyone really believe these guys can come back from an 0-1 deficit in the ALDS, or even win a second game after taking the first? This club is much more 2008 back-into-the-playoffs Sox than 2005 great baseball team Sox, and the Sox play under pressure shows it.

Every time I watch this crap this year I hear Stormin Norman shouting his 48 minutes of intensity line and it's just like some of those sleepy ass Bulls teams with the Sox., Did anyone notice how on the Rios throw out play McEwing wasn't even paying attention to what was happening? Bad decision by Alex, but for f***s sake where's the help? What is a coach there for? I also could have sworn Guthrie balked on that K to Rios bending his knee twice starting and stopping but nobody said anything about that either.