The Ultimate Champion

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 1, 2012 -> 03:00 PM) The point being if you were crying the Sox should have traded Beckham 2 years ago, you will probably be wondering why the Sox would give anything up to get Moustakas in 2 years. I'm not a Gavin Floyd fan, but looking at what's out there, if Hahn wants to trade him, he'll probably get more than he's worth. But I doubt it will be Moustakas. And my point in return was that Beckham hasn't made the type of offensive strides we all hoped for 4 years in, which is obviously cause for concern. OTOH there is still a lot of hope left in Moose, and Beckham's failings have no bearing on him. Gordon has earned his first year arb salary but has to earn his 2nd and 3rd year salaries, and there is reason to doubt his ability to do that at this point. Moose is still pre-arb and his overall production at 3B already puts him at a strong on-field value over his cost. The downside is more like, in 2 years we'll have another player will just be earning his salary (meaning we've saved $$$ in the meantime, especially if Youk is the alternative) while the upside is that in 2 years we have a star. The floor is pretty high and the ceiling is tremendous when you factor in years of team control + cost, which is what makes Moose worth a ton and not just another Beckham. Besides, Beckham could still turn it around. If Moose is really out there we'd be very dumb not to ask about him, but the Royals would be idiots to trade all that current and likely value PLUS all that potential for 1 year of an up-and-down underachieving #3 starter who is being paid at an annual value right around, or just below, what he has actually been worth the last 2 seasons.\ Floyd makes a lot of sense for KC from the standpoint of trading for him and then extending him, but I think it's a bad match anyway. That's why I think he's in Baltimore, as Baltimore has been rumored to be interested in their local boy for a long time now, and he's a perfect under the radar, smaller market, trade and extend type of candidate for that club. I don't know what STL is going to need but that's another organization that might be interested in something like that. Maybe Cincy too. I doubt he goes to KC though and we're certainly not getting any return like Moose.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 1, 2012 -> 12:36 PM) I don't know how you guys think we can move Dunn. He's good, but there's no surplus value in the contract. Who doesn't have a better option than to take that contract? Also, if you go FA, you're going for either Hamilton or Swisher, and both are going to be a lot more expensive than you think they should be. If you want a big lefty bat on the free agent market you're generally going to have to give up a draft pick plus guarantee that player 3+ years. Dunn has 2 years, $30M left which makes him a bit less risky. Also he should not cost nearly as much in terms of talent as a draft pick would be worth. Plus, salary is negotiable as the Sox could eat some. Additionally, through free agency, you have to convince a player to play for you and then potentially you have to deal with NTCs and such. In this case, a team could (for example) send out $2-4M in marginal pieces - say 1-2 of a reliever/utility player/backup C - while giving up a prospect that's decent but more like 5th round value, and acquire Dunn for 2 years without any trade clauses for about $25-27M over a 2 year span. Teams have payroll room to spend even if they are non-contenders, and since teams can no longer spend massive amounts on prospects without any system of checks and balances in place, a player like Dunn on a deal like this makes a lot of sense. Basically he gives you some power + OBP for nothing but his contract costs, and he's immediately a trade chip around the deadline if he's doing well. It's still a risk to assume the contract of a player who can be so hit-or-miss, but for a team like Seattle or something, the risk is what? They're going to suck anyway. IMO Dunn to a non-contender mainly for salary relief and part(s). Alex to whoever for salary relief and a couple parts/prospects who are actually worth something. Alexei to whoever will take his deal for whatever we can get. All together that is $83.5M in payroll obligations, and if we can clear that while only eating a little cash (or in a perfect world, eating nothing) and at the same time pick up a couple pretty good prospects plus a couple useful parts, then I think we'll be in an excellent position for the future.

Beckham has appeared in 535 games and has made 2067 plate appearances. Moustakas has appeared in 238 games and has made 979 plate appearances. If these guys look the same in a mirror then I imagine it would be possible for an apple to see its own reflection as an orange. Yeah, maybe Beckham over the 2010-11 offseason is a great comp, but then again, Beckham over that same offseason is still worth a s*** ton more than Gavin Floyd, Hector Santiago, etc. etc. Not happening.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 1, 2012 -> 10:28 AM) It would likely take some younger, near-ready pitching to get it done. Guys like Santiago and/or Rienzo would have to be involved, I would think. Moose is the type of player who is cheap, under control, already an MLB player, and has the ability to become a star on both sides of the diamond. When we had a player like that (Beckham) many of us, including myself, didn't want to take the chance at losing such a piece even if coming back were 2 years of Adrian Gonzalez at a hilarious salary. There's no way any organization in it's right mind would trade that kind of player without getting at least a similar type of prospect in return, but probably an already established young/in his prime MLB star. We don't have the prospect(s) and if we did trade Sale I doubt it would be to KC, although they are one of the few teams that could put together the type of package to make a GM trade someone like that. IMO Gavin will be a member of the Baltimore Orioles before the Winter Meetings are over.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 1, 2012 -> 10:41 AM) If you trade for Haren and pick up his option, he is due $15.5 million in 2013, then he becomes a free agent. IF he turns it around, then he suddenly is on the market and will command a huge contract. I'd trade for him if I thought I could rip up the deal and get him for 2-3 years with a lower base plus incentives. I'm assuming though that his option will be declined & he will be on the block as a FA.

QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 04:23 PM) It is more uncertain that we could find replacements for those big $ players' production (Dunn, Rios, Alexei) than the uncertainty about whether they'll be as good next year. Especially in the case of Dunn, it is not a stretch to say that he could do better next year. Same with Alexei, though last year turned out not to be a huge departure from his past like it felt it was at first. And no, I don't want Dan Haren and his aching back. We have enough aging injury risks for one staff. With the uncertainty surrounding a bullpen on any yearly basis, I'm not eager to gut it for very marginal cost cutting either. You can hope Jones can match Crain, or you can have both and have very good odds that at least one of them will hold things down late in games. Same with Veal, Thornton on the left side. I strongly, strongly disagree with this. Alex Rios: took the whole 2009 season off mentally, took the 2nd half of 2010 off mentally, took all of 2011 off mentally... how many times do you have to stick your hand in the fire before you realize you're going to get burned. Alex is probably the most talented guy on the team, and I wanted him on the Sox forever before we got him, but if you can unload his salary and pick up something, especially in a strong market for corner OF, you do it. No question. I would have more faith in the 2013 production of several FA OF than I'd have in Alex. Adam Dunn: potentially even more of a headcase than Alex which he showed in 2011. Yes he rebounded, yes he was injured, but we got exactly what we were hoping for with Dunn, which was enough production to hopefully make him movable. If someone will take his salary you do it, again without question. Look at Alexei's contract without the black and white blinders on. Now's the time to move him if you can. Doing it next year might be close to impossible without eating a good amount of the money remaining. The Sox have talent and could contend, but the 2012 season was a step in the right direction as far as adding youth and specifically multi-year controllable players. This team needs a 3-5 year window, not a bunch of 1 year here, 2 years there, etc. stuff we've been getting. The attendance says that, the team age shows that, etc. If the Sox think about 2013 more than 2014-19 this offseason then they haven't learned a thing and deserve all the s*** they'll step in as a result. All I want the Sox to do re: moving salaries is to try to move 3 potentially bad contracts while they still may be able to (Dunn, Alex, and Alexei) while cashing in on far-from-irreplaceable 1 year remaining veterans by moving them for parts/prospects, and then reallocate the funds toward the next 3-5 year window. That's just smart baseball management, nothing more, and as far as I can see, this 2013 team doesn't look good enough to justify ignoring the future for another 1 year run. We were "all in" in 2011-12, we sucked, and now we need a new window. Edit: Also re: Haren, he's exactly the type you target if it's possible. The Sox medical staff is excellent, and if they think they can keep him healthy, it's an awesome buy low opportunity. You'd have a rotation filled out for the next 2-3 years which would allow you target talented SP prospects in A+ or below, and then look for a good pitching prospect to *force* his way into the mix, rather than just handing a job to someone like Castro because you think he may have a pulse.

QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 12:29 PM) I have no idea how you plan on us having a good team without most of those guys. Thornton clearly the most expendable, but each one after him gets very difficult to replace Thornton replaced by Veal Veal replaced by Septimo/Rodriguez/Leesman/trade/FA/minor league FA/ST invite Crain at $4.5M replaced by Jones Jones replaced by a stopgap 1-year cheaper signing that costs nothing in terms of talent; Crain traded for a prospect or other piece The bullpen I wouldn't worry about. Alex & Dunn are no guarantees to be good again, which is why you trade them. You could easily keep both players and have them fail to replace their own 2012 production. Alexei is going to get expensive very quickly, so trading him now would avoid possibly being stuck with a bad immovable contract. Alexei has become more of an Uribe type, i.e. his defense is huge and when he's hot he can carry the team for a while at the bottom of the order, but logic says he'll be losing a step as he gets older, and an average defensive SS who endures major hot and cold spells isn't worth his salary. The question re: Alexei is whether or not Alexei will be worth his contract on the next really good Sox team, and if I had to bet, I'd say no. Just business. I think you could replace all 6 and still contend, definitely. The Royals and Tigers are the only scary teams in the division, but the Royals are buffoons who will mismanage their best players right into trades/free agency, while the Tigers have their own heavy lifting to do and are no guarantee to be some juggernaut. If you cut about $30-35M in those salaries, bring in prospects & projects in those trades, and then sign a couple free agents, you could easily come up with a better team. Perfect example: how about signing Haren to a multi-year deal with Floyd & Thornton's money, and since you have SP locked up for several years now, you can use Santiago + Molina etc. in a deal for an MLB-ready pre-arb SS or 3B to replace what you got offensively & defensively at those positions. With Dunn's money & Alex's money you sign, or take on via trade, a big bat that you can slot in theoretically in either OF corner, 1B or DH. Or, you use Dunn's cash to bring back AJ, have AJ & Tyler & Pauilie split duties at C/1B/DH. You then pick up a couple prospects to deepen the farm for Alex, sign Torii Hunter as a stopgap, and maybe go after a piece like a Cody Ross or Ryan Sweeney as insurance. What about Victorino? Pence? There are lots of options, and Pence, Hunter, and Victorino are noted KW targets. We can get 1 IMO. There are tons of possibilities. We have major, major flexibility this offseason but we need to make smart decisions.

We need a core piece. Whether it's a prospect we'll have to pray on, an underachiever we'll have to hope on, or a veteran we'll have to pay and rely on, we need a 3-5 year piece either in his prime or not yet in his prime.

Alex Rios: $12.5M - also 2013:$12.5M, 2014:$12.5M, 2015:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout) Adam Dunn: $15M - also 2013:$15M, 2014:$15M Jesse Crain: $4.5M Matt Thornton; $5.5M Alexei Ramirez: $7M - also 2014:$9.5M, 2015:$10M, 2016:$10M club option ($1M buyout) Gavin Floyd: $9.5M I would be very surprised (and very disappointed as well) if 3 or more of these 6 salaries are still scheduled to be paid in full by the Sox come January. IMO 3 need to be gone, I would hope for at least 4, and in a perfect world we have dropped 5 of the 6 with prospects coming back and with money spent on either a longterm really good FA and/or shorter term reclamation type deals. I think we can definitely contend next year regardless of what we do over the offseason since we're going to have pitching and we'll probably have defense too, but IMO it would be a big mistake to not continue ahead in the same direction we've gone in since the dreaded "all in" debacle.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 08:59 AM) Oh absolutely he gave the Sox a deal. Yep. This is all Peavy putting his money where his mouth is. I officially want to apologize for all the nasty things I said about him after he rejected the first deal to come here. I thought he was afraid of pitching in a hitters park, but as it turns out, he's actually one of the few truly loyal players in baseball and actually did want to stay in SD for reasons other than park/stats/paydays/etc. Thank you, Jakemeister.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 02:39 AM) Credit to Fathom as he called Carpenter's value well before he burst onto the national scene in the playoffs. He would be a great fit. 3B and high OBP player from the left side. I'd move Gavin to STL for him. I still think Floyd would be a quality #3 SP in the N.L. Floyd can be a quality #3 in the AL next year. Problem is, he's getting paid at about his exact value, under control for only one year, and he's not a shoe-in for a qualifying offer after 2013. All together, Floyd has good value, but the return will piss Sox fans off IMO. If we land a nice set-up man with a big arm plus a good looking high ceiling position player in A+ ball I think we'll have gotten good value. Remember that his $9.5M goes a long way at the end of FA, and the opening his departure will create could also go a long way toward finding another long-term rotation piece (probably acquired in another deal).

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 05:03 AM) This didn't take LONG, even tho I realize BR sucks. I saw that crap up several days ago because CSN links to them. I figured others saw it as well but didn't mention it for obvious reasons. Not happening.

Yeah it's not happening. And if the idiot Royals had any sense he wouldn't be available at all. In fact I doubt he even is available, this is probably just bulls***. Also Floyd for Moose is well beyond sexy and just plain stupid. I love Q also but that's a done deal, they can take Hector too. But yeah, not happening.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 27, 2012 -> 12:16 PM) Who won a World Series as a manager. Goodness, you'd think Guillen was Gene Lamont reading this board. Gene Lamont presided over the most talented Sox team I've ever seen in my life (the juggernaut 1994 club). It's not hard to imagine Gene picking up a ring with that team had it not been for the strike. Ozzie in the past, like Robin now, was good at getting the players to play for him. He was never a smart manager, although he was good with the pitching staff when he worked well with Coop. His ego grew to the point where it negated any strength he had and now he's gone. He was good for 2-3 years, that's it, just like many other players/managers/coaches who happen to drift through the league.

What do you call a stewardess in search of a promotion? Give up? A pilot hole. Just thought of that o0ne about 5 mins ago. Go Sox.

Beckham has done enough this year to earn his salary as a first year arbitration player. He'll have to do more in 2013 to earn his salary as a second year arbitration player, and if he does that too, then we'll have to try to extend him because obviously the talent is there and the defense is sick.

So basically, there was no excuse whatsoever for this team to tank the 2011-12 offseason and run out a bunch of crap when they were ready to build around a core. Tanking the 2012-13 offseason by failing to spend free agent money, making the big trade of unproven prospects for proven pieces, etc. would seem to pretty much guarantee another decade of garbage baseball. I for one, while insulted by their incompetence and the way they have treated their fanbase over the years, hope they continue to act like losers over the offseason this year, because if they don't, and if they actually do what any other organization would do, they are very close. They're probably 2 key trades + 2 key FA signings away.... imagine adding 1-2 of Edwin Jackson/Peavy/Sanchez for only money and acquiring a couple pitchers (one top-end young guy, another cheaper high-ceiling project) for the rotation. They're only a couple moves away and yet watch how they don't make them. Here's a snippet from MLBTR via Royals Garbage Manager Dayton Moore: The Royals' waiver claim pickup of Chris Volstad could be a sign of how the team plans to take a low-cost approach to upgrading its pitching staff, writes Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Royals GM Dayton Moore said free agents "won’t be a long-term answer for us” because the club hopes to have homegrown pitching prospects in the rotation by 2014. “We’ve got to look internally,” Moore said. “We’ve got to look through trades. We’ve got to look, certainly, through free agency…we might be able to pick off a player or two, but we’re not going to build our team through free agency. It won’t work.” Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/kansas_city_...oU19xtZcfLZr.99 Yeah, you don't have to build a team through free agency you dumb f***. You need like a couple players out of a 25-man roster. Once again "hope" is thrown around. Meanwhile he's watching Gregor Blanco play in the WS and thinking "now THAT is the former Atlanta Brave I need to get to the top!"

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Oct 20, 2012 -> 10:12 AM) This thread should be with the why ticket sales suck threads. I think the fans have tired of getting another race out of an old horse. What makes this worse is it's another unethical player. That Manny R thing went over well. It's basic due diligence IMO. It looks like the NY media is going to try to force ARod out of town via s***storm. Basically, the same thing that happened with Contreras when we got him except far worse due to expectations, money owed, etc. It simply makes sense for the Sox to throw their hats in the ring if ARod would waive his NTC to come here. No one *has* to trade for ARod. No one *has* to assume a stupid contract. In a *sane* (i.e. not Dodgers) world, we'll see several teams swirling around like sharks in the water waiting to see how far the Yankees can bend over & how deep they want to take it, and if they are prepared to do something drastic, it would be at best poor form to not go after him. Just on the surface, we can offer Dunn's 2 years (opening up the DH spot for ARod/Paulie), and the Yankees have wanted Thornton for a while. Kenny has been after Betances also. We may already have an obvious framework of Dunn + Thornton + prospect(s) for ARod + Betances + tons of cash. I'd rather have ARod over the next 2 years as a DH anyway. And as far as unethical players, at this point, I'm not sure that's even an issue as long as he's good in the clubhouse. Our starting C next year may very well be a former unethical player, and depending on his AFL and ST, we may see another unethical player in middle relief next year, plus who knows how many other unethical players we'll have on the roster that we don't know about and never will know about. It's part of the game, ARod's already in the Hall, and the records he'll continue to set are just going to be numbers, not keystones of statistical baseball history.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Oct 20, 2012 -> 08:29 AM) Whoever grabs ARod might actually get a steal for the first couple years. A pissed off, rededicated ARod might be a force. Staying healthy is another story. Yes, but there's no reason for another team to wager on an already old player's production 5 years into the future. Right now those last 3 years of ARod probably aren't worth $6M combined. There shouldn't be any team out there willing to commit that much money to a shot in the dark. The Yanks should have to eat pretty much everything from 2015 on, including the bonuses, and then either a good chunk of 2013-14 and/or assume a large amount in return contracts. I assume, due to luxury tax concerns, the final deal will look something like the Andruw Jones GTFO payment the Dodgers made where they deferred cash for about a zillion years.

QUOTE (chisoxt @ Oct 19, 2012 -> 10:52 PM) Uhh...when Kenny stops being the GM and when we cycle through the Konerko, Dunn, Danks, Peavy and Rios contracts so that we can put more $ in player development.... Right. Because player development costs in excess of $40M annually. Yeah.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 18, 2012 -> 04:26 PM) 20 bucks is still a lot, but 23 was offensive. You had to not only pop out a 20 but three ones? What a joke. When you give them the $20 and then they ask for 3 extra singles, that's when you say "I only have fifty cents."

QUOTE (klaus kinski @ Oct 18, 2012 -> 02:22 PM) I don't want Robin burdened with a "celebrity" like him If Robin can get Dunn & Rios to screw their heads on straight then he can probably turn water into wine, walk on water, etc. Pretty much anything except manage a bullpen. I doubt ARod would be a problem. If you believe the NY media, he's more or less been Jeter's puppy dog since Day 1.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 18, 2012 -> 01:20 PM) It's all good (news). Even dropping parking from 23 to 20 is smart. You flip them a 20 dollar bill; what's with the extra 3 bucks? Now the Sox should publicize all this A LOT. Forget marketing slogans; just talk about prices; even compare them to Cubs prices if they have to, but get the word out. Maybe even a mass mailing to anybody who has ever bought a ticket that they have on file. It should be all over their webpage as well all offseason.

Okay, well if the NY media is going to force Hank Steinbrenner into having Brian Cashman doing something stupid, then sure, I'd take ARod. Let's see how dumb you guys can get.

I don't think we'd have enough to get Morrow anyway. AA is (like KW, Billy Beane, etc.) the type of aggressive GM who will trade anyone for the right price, but the price for someone like Morrow would be through the roof, and rightfully so. IMO though if you're going after a righty ace you target someone like that because you're not signing Felix, Greinke, etc. to deals in excess of $20M per season over several years. Not only does it go against the typical Sox mold, but the upside is limited since you're paying a guy to be an ace every year when in fact he may only live up to his pay in 1/3 or 1/4 of his contract. OTOH, someone like Morrow has only been great in 1 of his several seasons in the league, so in theory if you trade the farm for someone like that you can potentially extend him at a more reasonable rate by dangling enough cash in front of him to get him to forget about free agency. One guy I'd love to get with Coop is Ricky Romero, but we have too many lefties as it is, and one is already owed a lot of money over several seasons, while another is going to become insanely expensive very soon, so adding another $$$ lefty probably isn't a good idea. I just think Coop would "fix" him.