Jose Abreu

I know this sort of stuff usually doesn’t matter, but I do think it’s important to note that McHugh publicly criticized the White Sox FO a mere 10 months ago:

Call me crazy but I think a large part of the reason they went with a stopgap in RF is because they plan on being aggressive with next year’s class. Maybe it’s just Joc, but Betts checks all the boxes of someone the Sox could actually sign. He only cares about money (won’t be pulling a Wheeler), is not a Boras guy, would align well with Sox charities, marketable, etc. If they approach it the way they attacked Grandal and Wheeler, they may have a shot.

Thanks for reading. I think the only current Sox with that kind of defensive potential are Moncada, Madrigal, and Robert. If Anderson really steps it up defensively, he has the ability to be that good, but I think it's more likely that he improves to a slightly above-average defensive SS, which would be more than acceptable

And while it's obvious that the guy doesn't know who Robert and Madrigal are, I still think there's a good chance that our 2020 team is actually good defensively. I wrote about this yesterday but in a nutshell, we have terrific defenders at the most important positions (with Anderson being the lone exception) and that should outweigh the bad defense at 1B and LF, even if Anderson doesn't improve at SS.

Funny, I was reading another Twins board yesterday where this was said about us: Seems like half of them are genuinely scared of us and the other half thinks we're gonna suck

Do you think Minnesota still trades for Price/Boyd/Ray? I can't imagine them wanting their end of year rotation to be Berrios/Odorizzi/Hill/Bailey/? (Graterol?), especially with Hill's durability issues and their lack of SP depth Edit- forgot Pineda but point remains

That’s fair, and maybe Judge is a better example than Moncada. Because if he outperforms his projected BABIP every single year, that says more to me about those who made the algorithm and their ability to adjust than Judge himself. At some point, Judge’s performance is no longer an anomaly and should be relatively expected, and I’m hoping Moncada also reaches that level in the next couple of years

And I know that link says it’s just expected batting average, but it has been tweaked to only use outcomes of balls in play, so it represents xBABIP for our purposes. The numbers there are not equal to the players’ xBAs.

By high BABIP, I just meant above the league average of ~.300. 2019 was certainly an extreme for Moncada and I don’t meant to suggest that he’ll routinely turn in .400 BABIPs. I just think it’s meaningful that his xBABIP was .383. It was truly a Judge-like season (as you can see Judge was #1) in that regard so it wouldn’t shock me if he replicates it.

Perhaps, but 1460 PAs is nothing to scoff at

His xBABIP was in the .380s. Projection systems struggle with guys like him and Aaron Judge who always have high BABIPs

I really don’t get this. Why are there people who want to keep Covey on the 40? Why is he even on it in the first place? Even as bullpen depth, I don’t think he’s capable of being anything but horrible

Not only is Moncada batting 6th and not 5th here, but the handedness goes RRRRRSLSR. The three non-RH need to be split up more evenly

Medeiros was actually pretty good out of the pen as the season went on and is relatively close to MLB ready (as a reliever). I think Zavala, Covey, or Engel (assuming we sign another OF) are the clearest candidates

So do I, but the problem is his ABs are generally really short. I think someone posted here the other day that he saw an average of 3.3 pitches per plate appearance last year

I understand not wanting Grandal to bat first but is speed really that important from a leadoff hitter these days? And I do agree on this. The quality of Tim's ABs improved a lot as the season went on and I think he's a better option than Leury (easily) or Madrigal (for now at least) in that role

.380 OBP last year. Even if one thinks it’s a fluke, it was still .350 the year before and based on his quotes, it seems like he has realized the importance of walks and I don’t think that will change. We need to maximize his PAs. I’d love to have who I think will be our highest OBP player (though Moncada may challenge him) batting right in front of Moncada, Eloy, EE, Abreu, etc

It should be Grandal, but it won’t be. So I’ll go with TA or Robert. Only one I’d really hate is Leury, as it makes no sense to give the clear-cut worst hitter in the lineup the most PAs

I don't get where this bullpen fear is coming from. It was about league average last year and we didn't lose anyone. Sure, I'd like them to sign another arm or two, but I wouldn't call it a black hole.

If you're planning a starting lineup (even a weak side platoon) that requires moving guys around so that you can get ABs for Adam Engel, you're probably doing something wrong

If it’s not JDM, but Boston still makes sense, would we trade for Betts now that we have this high-powered offense in place?

I don't know why they haven't been announced but with guys like Dylan Covey and Seby Zavala on the 40 man, figuring out who to remove shouldn't be that tough

There's a fairly good chance that Madrigal is dead last among our starting 9 in OBP next year, and I'm not even one of the Madrigal haters. I don't see any way he gets on base more often than Moncada, Grandal, EE, etc.

On that subject:

It's a good thing nobody judged the move in isolation.