steveno89

QUOTE (JRL @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:46 PM) This is a notion I've been hearing a throughout all the Quintana trade talks and it needs to be put to rest. It's not that it doesn't have some degree of truth to them, but is just one among many considerations. The general sentiment I'm talking about goes something like: "Quintana needs to be traded before the season, because if Sox wait his value goes down because either/some combination of a) there will be too many good pitchers who are going to be free agents next year, so teams can just sign those guys or trade for one of them at the deadline; b) if Sox are not getting the offers they like now for 4 years of Quintana, how can they expect to get better value for 3.5 years of Quintana at the deadline or 3 after next season etc...?; c) If you hold, you risk Quintana getting hurt and losing all value". It is foolish to believe that any of these are more than a consideration, or that they are the overwhelming consideration in why Quintana needs to be traded now, as opposed to the deadline because: a) who are all these pitchers that will be available at the deadline? Remember, that presumably to want to trade a pitcher at the deadline, the team would have to be non-contending. With the 2nd wildcard, a majority of the teams have been buyers or at least not sellers at the deadline over the past few seasons. The best pitchers in the 2017-18 free agent class are Arietta (not getting traded, Cubs will certainly be in playoff contention), Yu Darvish (same as Arietta) Johnny Cueto (no way, Giants are far enough from playoff race to be sellers, and good chance Cueto doesn't exercise his opt-out if he's not sure that he'll get > 4 years, 84 mil as a free agent, so Giants unlikely to treat him as a "pending free agent"), Tanaka (same exact thing as I wrote about Cueto, can be said about Tanaka and Yanks), John Lackey (see Arietta), Danny Duffy (it's feasible Royals sell, but more likely than not they don't). Then you start going down a caliber to guys like Lance Lynn, Marco Estrada, Ian Kennedy and Chris Tillman (all on contenders). So who is this big trade market for pitchers that will be seen by team's as a viable alternative to a pitcher of Quintana's quality? Hellickson, Clay Buchholz, Alex Cobb, Wei Yen Chen, Cashner. Not exactly a scary list. Sure, team's may bank on signing an Arrietta, Darvish or one of the other guys I listed as unlikely to be traded at the deadline in the offseason, so maybe the value of Quintana being under control for 4 years goes down, but 3 years of those guys will cost more than double the $ Quintana does and they will not help those teams who are looking to trade precisely because they find themselves in a playoff race for that year, which is of tremendous value alone. Yes, the 2018-2019 free agent class is fantastic, but to trade one of those guys at the 2017 deadline, a team would have to believe they are out of contention for not only 2017, but also for 2018. That narrows the list of teams even further. The Dodgers are not trading Kershaw. b) There are lots of other factors that go in to what a player will receive in a trade as opposed to just calculating value based on a number of years left. There are a number of factors that can lead to a suitable package being available at a later date even though it is not today. Not counting Sale, the 2 pitchers of similar performance level, age/point in their career, and years remaining on their contract who were traded in recent memory were Greinke and Cole Hamels. It took their teams a long while after their rebuilds began to deal those guys too. Why did they wait? One thing is, that even if Quintana is worth what the Sox are asking, you have to find a team who, not only has the quality and depth of farm system to make that trade, but also who can afford to give it up. For example, the Pirates have a deep enough farm system to afford Quintana and not have their farm system decimated, but the Pirates need to have, not only a good farm system but an elite one if they want to contend. If they Red Sox or Nationals who traded for Sale/Eaton (no coincidence that it was 2 big spending teams that made those deals) aren't turning out quite as many prospects from their farm as they once thought they'd be in 3-4 years, they can compensate for that by going out and getting that talent through free agency. Pirates, not so much. I might know a Ferrari is worth 250k, but it will still gut my resources I need for other things to buy one. In a limited market with only 29 "buyers", that situation can be the case for an overwhelming number of teams, or even all of them. I obviously don't know what team's front offices are thinking (nobody outside the front offices does), but it could very realistically be that teams do feel that 4 years of Quintana for way under market $ is worth what Sox are asking in the abstract, or something close to it, but they can't afford to pay it, so their current offers are only for what they believe 3-3.5 years of Quintana are worth. If the Sox believe that to be the case, it makes sense to hold out on trading Quintana at least until the deadline. Situations change all the time. A team like the Dodgers, for example, who have the prospects and can afford to deal them for Quintana, but have commitments of significant $ to > 5 starting pitchers, all of whom are injury prone, suddenly has a need due to injury; A team who didn't think they could afford it, has some other prospects who are developing better than they expected in 2017 and now can all of a sudden give up the prospects who it previously didn't make sense for them to; In the heat of a playoff race due to fan-base pressure (in the Ferrari analogy, this would be like finding out that a really hot girl will totally sleep with you if you had a Ferrari), or gaining more confidence than they have currently, due to their place in the standings at the deadline, that they can make a playoff/World Serie than they had at the beginning of the season, a front office can feel that it is worth it to pay the Sox asking price even though they don't right now. Worst case scenario, if this is the case, the teams that were only willing to pay what they believed 3-3.5 years of Quintana to be worth for 4 years of Quintana will still be willing to pay the same for 3-3.5 years of Quintana. c) Yes, Quintana might get injured. As any player might. You can't look at it that way, especially with a pitcher who has been particularly durable like Quintana, or a rebuilding team can never gain leverage in trade negotiations. In addition, Quintana and all Sox players are much less likely to get injured than players on any other team, as the White Sox do a fantastic job of keeping their players healthy. In fact, for what seems like forever now, the Sox have consistently kept their players healthy at a far better than the next best teams in the majors. The degree to which the Sox are the best in baseball at this, and the length of time over which this has been the case, are such that it cannot possibly be a coincidence, but has to be a trend, and they are just actually better at it than everyone else. http://www.hardballtimes.com/2015-disabled...-a-little-more/http://www.hardballtimes.com/2015-disabled...-a-little-more/ Quality analysis I feel that the white sox have been underwhelmed by what has been offered so far, and do need to be open to keeping him until the trade deadline if necessary. Everyone would prefer to get a deal done this offseason of course.

QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 04:02 PM) Hahn has said may times since trading Sale that he wants the market to come to him. He isnt going to these other teams all thirsty to make his next trade. He will make the big trade when there is a team banging down his door with elite packages of prospect gold. Until then, we wait. Hahn is correct in his approach. Unless overwhelmed we should keep Quintana. The price is three top prospects, otherwise no deal

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 03:39 PM) Maybe Hahn comes down from his "three elite prospects" demand and compromises with the Yankees now as opposed to waiting until July. Proposed deals with the Pirates and Astros are already beyond compromised from the Sox standpoint. With the Yankees, there's still a chance you could get a headliner like Frazier. If you could get Frazier plus Rutherford, I honestly would be happy regardless of the caliber other prospect or two to round it off. We don't need to settle for less than at least three top prospects in exchange for Quintana. Make other clubs up their offers, we shouldn't be compromising much at all

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 03:38 PM) Because they don't have time for those three young SP's to develop with their current core, Greinke isn't long for Arizona and with Pollock back their offense is good enough to compete. Greinke,Q, Corbin, Ray, Miller stabilizes their rotation and gives them a chance to contend before they lose Greinke and Goldy. I'm asking why the white sox would trade Quintana for pitching that isn't as good as he is. Dbacks farm is not good either

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 02:45 PM) Dbacks have young pitching, while technically not prospects anymore, Shipley, Walker, and Bradley all are still really good young arms with upside. The Dbacks have the (now) best pitching prospect in baseball in Reyes and enough depth behind him to get a deal done. A deal of Reyes, Weaver, Perez and Kelly would rival anything we have seen speculated from the Pirates. Why would st Louis blow up it's farm when reyes is essentially mlb ready right now? The dbacks have an awful farm. Why trade starting pitching for starting pitching in the majors?

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 02:40 PM) I think there are a couple others out there. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Dbacks have a need and the prospects to get a deal done. How do the cardinals or dbacks have the prospects??

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 02:30 PM) If Hahn trades Q for anyone straight up, he deserves to be fired on the spot. Why would the Sox trade Q for a player that is worse? For all we know Alex Bregman turns into Gordon Beckham, Q has been a model of consistency and is team controlled long term. That would be an epic fail. Even if Bregman turns into Evan Longoria, replacing one high value player for another doesn't get this team in a position to compete. Totally agreed. No way we deal Quintana for just one player, even bregman. Far to risky in the event that player busts or gets injured. I want a package of at least three players

QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 12:30 PM) Those proposed Frazier deals are insanity. You would be lucky to get 1 top 100 prospect for him. You sure as hell aren't getting 2. The Newcomb and Allard deal is insane The Holmes and Chapman less so, as Holmes had a pretty rough 2016 and Chapman's hit tool is big time in question. I see mlb pitching eating him alive with his minor league strikeout numbers. Chapman and Gallo are similar in my mind. Both guys who have huge power, but can't hit well enough to make it play at the mlb level

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 12:19 PM) Am I the only one who hates Judge, thinks he's nearly guaranteed to bust, and thinks that the likelihood of him busting only increases if he joins the White Sox organization? Honestly, I'd prefer Andujar to him. I am not a Judge fan really. I'd prefer Rutherford as a third piece in a Yankees deal I don't see New York being willing to deal Torres + Frazier + Judge/Rutherford/Mateo/Kaprellian/Sheffield for Quintana though I see mlb pitches eating Judge's 6'7" 275 lb strike zone alive, resulting in loads of strikeouts

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 12:02 PM) I really love that Rockies, Pirates and Yankees one for Q. I would probably take either of those deals for Frazier. Probably no on the Abreu one. I like the Yankees, Pirates and Rockies (not in that order necessarily) Newcomb and Allard for Frazier would be a huge return that I don't see happening Holmes and Chapman is a decent package. Chapman has huge power, but contact concerns. Holmes had a down 2016.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 12:01 PM) Yeah it sucks that so many teams value their top prospects so much more now. Before it seemed like you would see so many blockbuster trades around the trade deadline and during winter meetings. It's largely due to how expensive free agency has gotten Cheap seasons of young major league talent is very valuable vs. shelling out in free agency Many will disagree, but I tend to side on the proven major league talent almost always being superior in value to prospects. Quintana is a proven a well above average mlb starting pitcher, and his 4 seasons of control warrant 3 elite prospects

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 11:55 AM) I actually really doubt this. Too much going on over too long of a period. It's going to be one of the Pirates, Braves, Astros or Yankees. Other than that, Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies are the outsiders. Can't really make an argument for the other 22 teams. http://dawindycity.com/2017/01/12/chicago-...x-three-trades/ What do you guys think about these proposals? Sox Asking price for Quintana is currently "3 Elite Prospects" = Yankees: Frazier (OF), Torres (SS), and Judge (OF) Pirates: Glasnow (RHP), Meadows (OF), and Diaz © Astros: Reed (1B), Martes (RHP), and Tucker (OF) Rockies: Rodgers (SS/2B), Jeff Hoffman (RHP), and Tapia (OF) Todd Frazier Athletics: Holmes (RHP) and Chapman (3B) Braves: Sean Newcomb (LHP) and Kolby Allard (LHP) I don't see either of these deals as being realistic for one season of Frazier Abreu to the Rockies Rockies: Riley Pint (RHP) and Tom Murphy © I don't love that deal for the White Sox. Thoughts?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 11:16 AM) There's no issues with Moncada having to switch positions, guys. I agree to not switch him and have him play different spots over the course of the season but there is no issue with him working in the off-season to play another position if they decide after a 2 full years or so, he can't handle it. If a team's best prospect was also a 2B or SS and they were being offered in a deal, I wouldn't say no just because we have a guy here who can already play that position. That is stupid. Sox have needs all over the place and should be looking to acquire the best prospects regardless of position in a potential Quintana trade Good players have a tendency of forcing their way into a lineup somehow While we all would like to see position player talent added, you never can have too much pitching either. Pitching can carry you to the world series with an average offense

QUOTE (Username @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 10:05 AM) Yeah I think it's a bit early to project absolutely zero power for Albies despite a healthy minor league track record. Dude made it to AAA as a 19 year old and held his own. Adam Eaton had 0 home runs as a freshman at Miami of Ohio (as a 19 year old) haha. Eh, scouting grades currently have him with a 30 future power grade, which is well below average. Not saying he can never develop more, but don't expect him to regularly top 5-10 home runs per season

QUOTE (pablo @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 10:01 AM) From an offensive standpoint, my first thought of his offensive ceiling comp is Jose Reyes. Great bat-to-ball skills, great speed, very good OBP. Reyes maxed out at 19 HR's in 2006 which is out of the question for Albies. But with the way the balls were flying last year, it's not out of the questions to suggest 10-12 hr pop from him (see Trea Turner last year). If he is 3/4 of prime Jose Reyes, I would be very happy with that. Reyes is an interesting upside comparison, although Reyes is 6' , 195 lbs vs. Albies 5'9", 160 lbs. Reyes is/was significantly stronger in terms of line drive/pop and I think will be a better offensive player. I think Albies could potentially be a better defensive player than Reyes though. The upside is certainly their with him, and Albies is a player Sox fans would absolutely love to have in our system. Not a massive issue, but Albies profiles best in the middle infield, so either Anderson or Moncada would likely have to change positions. Atlanta likely wants to keep him to pair up with Swanson up the middle

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 09:41 AM) Thats just not true. Acuna and Albies may have just as much upside, but they still have a lot of growth to even be everyday players. Meadows and Bell are ML ready talents that could start on opening day this season. You have to discount the ceiling of Acuna, Albies, and especially Maitan on their distance from the majors and the still significant chance that they could bust. You can certainly build a deal around those players, but you need to get quantity back to help mitigate the risk of taking lower level players. I get that Acuna has some helium, but he has a long way to go to prove he is legit. Meadows and Bell are knocking on the mlb door right now Albies is incredibly young to make it all the way to AAA, but he did struggle during his 56 games at that level this season putting up only a .659 OPS. I feel like he will adjust and improve, and he has a really good glove, but the complete lack of power does pose some concern. I really do believe in him as a prospect, and feel he is the type of player that can help a MLB club win. I'd put Albies ceiling as an Omar Vizquel type of player, which is extremely valuable. His floor is as a glove first utility player who can handle any infield position well, pinch run, but the bat never develops beyond slap hitting.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 09:32 AM) I followed Newcomb pretty closely up to the draft, he has great stuff, but little command or control. Long term he is probably a power lefty in the pen unless he gets his mechanics inline. If he puts it all together he is a #2 or 3, but that seems less likely the more time that goes on. Newcomb has a good arm, but walks have continued to plague him. I certainly would be willing to take a shot on him though. Worst case I see him being a useful bullpen arm

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 09:27 AM) You are so dead on. I welcome Braves talk. I get to research their farm system. These Q threads have made me more knowledgeable overall. The only positive from all this teasing is researching these players and being a better baseball fan for it. We have sifted through the Astros / Yankees / Red Sox / Nationals / Braves / Pirates / Mets / Rangers / Cubs / Dodgers / Blue Jays farms in discussing trades this offseason. Am I leaving any out haha?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 09:10 AM) Well Dan Black was never anywhere near the prospect Coats was, and Wilkins was a pure 1B which gave him a super-steep path, so your joke doesn't really hit home. But certainly Coats leaving isn't the end of the world, I agree there. I still believe Coats provides more value than Avi Garcia, but obviously the Sox feel otherwise. Tampa likes to go with role players and Coats fits that mold well, rotating through OF slots down there. If Coats turns into a mlb regular, shame on us. He seems like he could be a decent 4th outfielder, but I do not consider him to be a significant loss. I would have liked to see him back for depth purposes, but in choosing between Willy Garcia or Coats, I'd rather take a chance on the younger Garcia

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 06:25 AM) Is this more of a compliment for Moncada or a warning about Collins? Collins is not a guy who will bat .300 consistently, but he knows how to draw walks and his patience will allow him to post very good OBP #'s overall He also has above average power potential. If he can stick at catcher he could be really valuable

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 08:39 AM) Acuna is a lot of projection but quick bat and strong hands is intriguing. If we get Albies/Acuna then I would lean braves unless Pirates truly bring in Meadows or New York comes in with Torres. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospect...hp?reportid=397 Solid scouting report, but most of it is projection at this point. The game power has not materialized as of yet. So you're suggesting something along the lines of a: Albies + Newcomb + Acuna + Flyer deal?

QUOTE (beautox @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 06:32 AM) When all the smokes clears and if you were Rick Hahn and these were the packages presented to you what would you choose and why. Meadows/Glasnow/lotto ticket Meadows/Keller/Newman Meadows/Keller/Hayes/Hearn Of those three? Meadows/Keller/Newman is easily the best package I'd be down for a Meadows/Glasnow/Newman package

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 11, 2017 -> 06:49 PM) How many prospects in the game are worth a damn to you? 10? 20? Glasnow, Bell, & Newman are all legit top 50 prospects. If you're s***ting on all these guys, you are going to be incredibly dissapointed with our Quintana return. Take it easy there. Who's to say the sox are even interested in dealing with Pittsburgh beyond just having conversations? The sense is no deal is close to happening as of right now. Prospects are very worthwhile, but I think it's best to take a conservative approach that acknowledges a players ceiling, but is more realistic about what he will become. Top 100 prospects flame out all the time. Non top 100 prospects can become stars. Hahn and company have a rebuilding plan that may or may not include the aforementioned prospects. We can only speculate.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 11, 2017 -> 06:11 PM) I feel pretty good about all of the trades mentioned. Honestly perspective wise, we have been looking at the top prospects in the game for like 6 months now, to the point that any top 200 prospect looks like garbage. But then you think about how much you like players like Jordan Stephens or Alex Call, and those are "just guys" to us on other teams. But we are talking about likely 11 top 30 team prospects to our team for 3 guys, drafts, and fincancial flexibility. I'm pretty confident we're gonna end up well unless Quintana gets injured before we trade him. I get what you are saying, but I'm pretty sure most Sox fans are realistic about who is valuable in tiers. Guys like stephens and call exist in pretty much every organisations top thirty. They are back end of a trade filler or guys that can be dealt in smaller deals. There is a big value drop after meadows in the pirates system. Glasnow is not without big questions about his poor control. Bell is a terrible defensive player, even at first Newman has zero power, value tied to sticking at ss Keller pitched well against A ball competition. Forearm issues in the past.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 11, 2017 -> 04:56 PM) I don't think there is any chance the Pirates give up 3 out of their top 5 prospects for Q. They may get 2 of those and other pieces. People were shocked when we got both Giolito and Lopez for Eaton. Sox fans were convinced Washington would only deal one of them, not both