Sox Fan In Husker Land

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jul 25, 2016 -> 11:11 AM) I hate hate hate that I see some talks on this board and other places that a fair deal for Q won't include Moncada or a major piece from the ML roster. The guy is a legitimate ace that's under control for 4 more years. It's almost like now some are itching to trade him for the he!! of it. A package of Benintendi, Kopech, and other prospects not named Moncada is a bad deal on paper for us. That is wayyy too light. I really hope Hahn doesn't budge here. Q is an elite pitcher. The only thing he doesn't have is W's next to his name. Hell, Sunday he went 6 2/3 0 runs 1 BB 3 H and he got an ND. If that doesn't sum up his career as a Sox pitcher, I don't know what does. Since his 1st full season as a starter his #s are elite among pitchers. 2013 - 3.5 fWAR 30th overall (15th in AL) 2014 - 5.1 fWAR 10th overall (8th in AL) 2015 - 4.8 fWAR 14th overall (6th in AL) 2016 - 3.2 fWAR 9th overall (on pace for 5.1 fWAR), (3rd in AL) Look at his trajectory among AL pitchers 15th, 8th, 6th, 3rd. He's 27, easy delivery, no signs of arm issues, and locked up cheap as hell for the next 4 years. MLB pitching leaders in fWAR from 2013 - today: Kershaw 28.9 fWAR. 4 years 141 left million contract. 28 years old. Scherzer 20.7 fWAR. 5 years 170 million left on contract. 32 years old. Price 19.8 fWAR 6 years 187 million left on contract. 30, will be 31 in August. Kluber 19.4 fWAR 5 years 59.1 million (could increase to 70.9) left on contract. 30 years old. Sale 19.1 fWAR 3 years 38 million left on contract. 27 years old. Quintana 16.5 fWAR 4 years 37.85 million left on contract. 27 years old. Both Sale and Q should bring back a huge bounty if one is traded. If there are no MLB proven young players thrown into the trade I do not see how they can take anything less than 3 top 50 prospects, and 2 more top 100 prospects for one of Sale or Q.

Some terrible, tragic, and heartbreaking news today, Nebraska Punter Sam Foltz and former Michigan St. Punter Mike Sadler have died in a car crash they were in last night after leaving a kicking camp in Wisconsin that they were helping out at.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 09:49 AM) People aren't going to be able to deal with a full rebuild. Just look at the facts. 2014 was a rebuilding season, how many people complained about Konerko taking the 25th spot and ruining "roster construction"? They weren't going to win, I thought people didn't care. And many who have said this season is over are complaining Jacob Turner is starting tonight. That's what you get in a rebuild. Guys like Jacob Turner starting, for years. So what happens if they do a full rebuild? Does it matter if they go from 5th worst in attendance to dead last? 2012 - 24th 2013 - 24th 2014 - 28th 2015 - 26th 2016 - 26th The Royals who have less resources than what the Sox have, had sucked balls for a long time, in 2010 they traded their young Cy Young winner in Zach Greinke who was under team control for 2 more seasons. That didn't sit well with their fans. They netted Cain and Escobar, and used Odorizzi as part of a package to get them Shields and Wade Davis. Couple that with their drafting of Hosmer, Moustakas, and Gordon and bam they had a team that went from awful to losing a WS and then winning one. In small market KC. KC also had some big misses on high draft choices as well during that span. Top 5 picks of Cristian Colon, Bubba Starling, and Kyle Zimmer have not done much if anything. If they had hit on their top picks in the 2010-12 drafts they would be in the playoffs again this year, even with all of their injuries. KC's attendance went like this: 2009 - 26th 2010 - 25th (Greinke traded in offseason) 2011 - 27th 2012 - 25th 2013 - 26th 2014 - 25th 2015 - 10th 2016 - 11th Their attendance stayed virtually the same, until all that young talent came through for them. Now they have 30K at every game for a .500 team.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 09:13 AM) This is loose conjecture and my own analysis. Take it for what you want. I really can't elaborate on more than I am saying. I don't think the Sox will trade Sale. I am not ruling it out, but I'd be pretty much shocked. I don't seem them moving Frazier/Melky/Lawrie but that's more of a guess. The guys that I expect them to have deep conversations about are Quintana/Robertson/Duke. Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox are the teams to watch. I think the Sox think if they can get a return from Quintana/Robertson that is largely comprised of close to MLB ready talent, then they will make the leap. Shields could be moved obviously but I don't have any reason to think anything specific. Essentially, if they move Q/Robertson/Duke they'll go into the offseason with holes at C/CF/DH and then they'll need a decent starter/reliever as well as some depth adds. They'll have the returns from those guys hopefully filling three of those holes and they'll have boatload of money off the books with LaRoche/Robertson/Q/Jackson/Latos/Rollins/Avila/Navarro leaving. Before arb raises, that's almost 50M off the books (rough mental math). In that scenario for 2017 we would have $55.317M tied up in salary before arb raises: Melky $15 Abreu $12.167 Sale $12 Shields $10 Eaton $4 Jones $1.9 Albers $.25

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jun 11, 2016 -> 12:26 PM) Frazier reminds me of Dunn -- lots of dingers, low average, lots of K's If Frazier at 3B puts up a 50 HR, 95 runs, 111 RBI season while hitting .212/.309/.487 .796 OPS. I'd take it and be happy as hell (that's what he's on pace for currently through 3/8 of the season). That is a vast improvement at 3B from 2011-2015, when we as a team put up these lines for a whole season at 3B: 2011: 10 HR, 56 runs, 47 RBI while hitting .237/.284/.340 .624 OPS. 2012: 15 HR, 77 runs, 61 RBI while hitting .201/.286/.314 .600 OPS. 2013: 15 HR, 60 runs, 63 RBI while hitting .236/.285/.350 .635 OPS. 2014: 11 HR, 63 runs, 71 RBI while hitting .250/.302/.377 .679 OPS. 2015: 13 HR, 59 runs, 50 RBI while hitting .226/.277/.345 .622 OPS. 2016: 19 HR, 38 runs, 43 RBI while hitting .218/.311/.487 .798 OPS through 61 games played.

MLB Network with a live look in to the Sox game, says in a bold statement that they think Jose Quintana is one of the Top 25 pitchers in the AL. Not Top 5 or Top 10, but Top 25 in the AL. From 2013 to today, Quintana is tied for 6th in fWAR in MLB among pitchers. 1. Kershaw 25.3 2. Scherzer 18.3 3. Price 17.8 4. Sale 17.5 5. Kluber 16.6 6. Hernandez 14.7 6. Lester 14.7 6. Quintana 14.7 If you just do 2014 to today he is 8th in fWAR among pitchers. 2015 to today he's 9th. Way to go out on a limb and say that Q is a Top 25 pitcher in the AL.

In 11 of the 22 games so far this year the Sox pitching staff has either shutout or allowed only 1 run to their opponents. 5 shut outs. 6 1-run games. Feels good.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 03:06 PM) I'd be comfortable offering him 4/80. He was a 6+ WAR player twice and was in 2014. I think with his defense and bat he profiles to stay pretty decent over the years 32-36, He has always been an OBP guy and he K's at a league average rate. He has carried great defense and is in good shape. I think a 4 year deal for him is a safe bet to produce 12-15 WAR over the life of the contract. I would love me some Alex Gordon on this team. In that scenario would who is the RF? Eaton, with Thompson in CF?

QUOTE (Real @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 05:53 AM) Bread is used to make sandwiches. Fire is hot. Billy likes to drink soda. Miss Lippy's car is green.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 8, 2015 -> 09:11 AM) Agreed. MSU still shouldn't have let a sub par offense drive down the field that quickly and easily anyway. Agree on the home field call. Memorial was rockin' last night. LOL at the subpar offense comment though. NU is 34th in Total Offense YPG despite all the injuries this year and a complete change in the offense we run. If being in the top 1/3 of Total Offense YPG is subpar then sign me up. We also put up the most points and yards on Michigan St. all year in that game with 499 yards and 39 points. Dantonio said they had a communication error which lead to a couple big plays on that last drive. I agree that no team should let another Offense go 91 yards in 38 seconds with no timeouts, that easily.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 8, 2015 -> 08:33 AM) Looking at your video, some officials should never call a college game again. Nebraska was due for a break, but watching it again makes it an even more ridiculous call. There is a ton on the line for MSU, and having it blow up with that.....I agree with whoever stated it earlier, there should not be limitations when looking at replay. Replay should be used to get the call right, and that wasn't right. on the other hand had MSU not used a TO when the were on defense seemingly because they just had them remaining, they might have been able to get a FG and continue Nebraska's nightmare of last second losses. It is a vague rule left open to interpretation. Is it how we wanted to win, no. But we will take the W.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 8, 2015 -> 07:43 AM) My favorite part of that post is the expert that was asked was the former ACC coordinator of officials. So you asked the guy who ran the absolute worst group of officials on the planet. Nice. The guy who tweeted it works for ESPN, not myself. He tweeted it after he talked to the ESPN rules expert. All of college football officials suck, not just the ACC. The official correctly threw his hat, signaling that Reilly went out of bounds. He came back in and caught it and scored a touchdown. After conferring with the other officials to get the call made they said that the Michigan St. DB had made contact with Reilly. By the rule he doesn't have to be shoved out, just contact made. Therefore by the rule he is able to catch the ball with no penalty after reestablishing himself in bounds. It maybe a very dumb rule open to a lot of interpretation, but it was technically the correct call. The DB did NOT shove him forcefully out of bounds, but there is contact. Eligibility Lost by Going Out of Bounds ARTICLE 4. No eligible offensive receiver who goes out of bounds and returns in bounds during a down shall touch a legal forward pass while in the field of play or end zones or while airborne until it has been touched by an opponent or official (A.R. 7-3-4-I, II and IV). [Exception: This does not apply to an originally eligible offensive player who immediately returns inbounds after going out of bounds due to contact by an opponent (A.R. 7-3-4-III)]. If he touches the pass before returning in bounds, it is an incomplete pass (Rule 7-3-7) and not a foul for illegal touching. Mike Pereira chimes in More from Pereira Pereira Pereira again But then again what does Pereira know. Notice how Pereira says contact. He may not think he was forced out, but he says there was contact. "Exception: This does not apply to an originally eligible offensive player who immediately returns inbounds after going out of bounds due to contact by an opponent"

QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Nov 7, 2015 -> 09:45 PM) What a bulls*** way for MSU to lose their undefeated season. They aren't that great but that is hores***. That official shouldn't have a job on Monday as that is just an inexcusable call to miss and it wasn't even a difficult judgment call. QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 7, 2015 -> 10:47 PM) Replay rules are just stupid. Replay should exist to get the call right. There shouldn't be restrictions on what they can change. Rough season this year but GBR!!!!!!!!

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2015 -> 06:09 PM) his walk rate in the big leagues this year was twice his walk rate at Charlotte. QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 5, 2015 -> 12:58 PM) Trayce ran a .340+ BABIP and slashed his MiLB K-rate by roughly 20%. These are things that must be seen over a much larger sample to be believed. He's still much more likely to be a mediocre to bad hitter in the MLB than a good one. That said, he'll be a plus defender who can do some damage on the basepaths, and he has shown an ability and a willingness to commit to a reasonable approach to plate discipline, so he's much better than Avisail Garcia in my book. In the seasons where Thompson had more than 135 PA (I used that because that is what he had with the Sox this year, and yes I realize that is a small sample size) he always had a walk rate above 8.8%, except this year at AAA. His walk rate with the Sox was very similar to his walk rate throughout his time in the minors, except this year at AAA. His walk rate may have fell off this year at AAA to an all time low for him, but his K rate had also dropped 4.7% below his previous best in the minors. His improved K rate had also stayed with him in his call up to the Sox. His K rate had been going down every year except 2014. Did he change something in his approach? Did the light bulb go on for him? His career ISO in the minors is .208. His BABIP was also about .300 for his full seasons in the minors. I think it is reasonable to expect him to put up a .235/.305/.405 line next year over a full season. Trayce Thompson stats in leagues he made at least 135 PA's A (19) G 58 BB% 8.9% K% 29.4% ISO .205 BABIP .296 wRC+ 106 A (20) G 136 BB% 10.1% K% 28.8% ISO .216 BABIP .309 wRC+ 114 A+ (21) G 116 BB% 8.8% K% 28.2% ISO .232 BABIP .316 wRC+ 120 AA (22) G 135 BB% 10.2% K% 23.6% ISO .154 BABIP .280 wRC+ 107 AA (23) G 133 BB% 10.9% K% 25.4% ISO .181 BABIP .301 wRC+ 108 AAA (24) G 104 BB% 5.5% K% 18.9% ISO .180 BABIP .295 wRC+ 114 MLB (24) G 44 BB% 9.6% K% 19.3% ISO .238. BABIP .341 wRC+ 144

How in the hell could Quintana be undervalued? In the last years these are the pitching leaders in fWAR: 1. Kershaw 22.7 2. Price 16.9 3. Scherzer 16.7 4. Sale 16.2 5. Kluber 15.4 6. Hernandez 14.4 7. Lester 13.7 8. Quintana 13.3 9. Greinke 13.3 10. Bumgarner 13.2 And then when his contract is this for the next possible 5 years he is not undervalued. 2016: $3.8M 2017: $6M 2018: $8.8M 2019 Team Option: $10.5M ($1M buyout) 2020 Team Option: $10.5M ($1M buyout) If Quintana is traded he better bring a hefty return.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Sep 26, 2015 -> 06:21 PM) How are they just going to get better hitters overnight without trading away the pitching? Well the only way to acquire better hitters overnight without trading away pitching would be to sign free agents. Go get Cespedes, Zobrist, Heyward or someone else.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 26, 2015 -> 09:56 AM) Cincy would never give up Frazier for your offer. We'd have to include much better players than Avi/Micah/Danish. I know that is why I said and another and try to avoid giving up 1 of Anderson, Fulmer, Montas, Adams, Michalczewski if possible. He's only got 1 year left so the Reds can't expect a kings ransom for him. I would throw in Montas or Adams for him if need be. Fulmer and Anderson off limits.

QO to Samardizja. He turns it down, we get a top 40 pick along with a top 10 pick Bring back Alexei for a year until Anderson is ready. Try to resign Soto and split with Flowers at Catcher because we have other major issues to address. Somehow acquire Todd Frazier for 3B, if the NL to AL curse of hitting pops in at least you have good D at 3rd and a deadline piece at a key position if we suck. Trade Micah Johnson, Avi Garcia, Tyler Danish, and another throw in if necessary for Frazier. Try to keep Anderson, Fulmer, Montas, Adams, Michalczewski out of any deals. Sign Jason Heyward to 8 year $180 million deal, with player option after 3 years. 1st 3 years worth 3 years $80 million. $ for Heyward is there if we can offer Samardzija the deal we did. We also lose Danks & LaRoche following the 2016 season. And Melky after the 2017 season. It is doable. I know it's a pipe dream, but it vastly improves 2 of our major holes in 3B and RF all without giving up too much. It also upgrades our defense in the OF drastically. It also keeps our young, cheap controlled rotation together. Adam LaRoche is just a wasted space as a 1B/DH against RHP and a pinch hitter in the latter part of games until the end of the year. Vs. RHP CF Eaton L DH Abreu R RF Heyward L 3B Frazier R LF Cabrera S 1B LaRoche L SS Ramirez R C Flowers/Soto R 2B Sanchez S Bench OF Thompson R UTIL Saladino R OF Shuck L C Flowers/Soto R Vs. LHP LF Eaton L 1B Abreu R RF Heyward L 3B Frazier R DH Cabrera S CF Thompson R SS Ramirez R C Flowers/Soto R 2B Sanchez S Bench 1B/DH LaRoche L UTIL Saladino R OF Shuck L C Flowers/Soto R Pitching Staff Starters Sale LHP Quintana LHP Rodon LHP Johnson RHP Danks LHP Bullpen Robertson R CL Jones R SU Petricka R Putnam R Webb R Duke L Jennings L You would have Tim Anderson, Carson Fulmer, and Frankie Montas waiting in the wings to provide a boost to the line up or rotation/bullpen if need be by mid season.

He won't win it, but his last 7 outings including tonight have been awesome. At a time when most rookies pitchers hit the wall he is performing his best. 48 2/3 IP. 9 ER. 33 H. 16 BB. 45 K. 1.66 ERA. 1.00 WHIP. 8.32 K/9.

At his current season rates with 9 starts left he would be on pace for 289.39 K's. He averages 6.84057 IP per start this season. He also averages 1.32204 K per IP. 9 starts x 6.84057 IP/Start x 1.32204 K/IP = 81.39156. He is at 208 K's currently.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Aug 17, 2015 -> 11:42 PM) He leaves guys on every night yet he has to play do not get it at all. But have you seen his pitch framing, I hear it's amazing.

QUOTE (harkness @ Aug 14, 2015 -> 09:50 PM) at the time of the trade deadline he wasn't really doing that great and I'm guessing we weren't getting offered enough. He was doing fine just prior to the trade deadline. In his 10 starts prior to the trade deadline he had gone at least 7 innings in every one. In his last 9 starts he had the following line: 68 IP, 54 H, 12 BB, 21 R, 2.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 48 K, 4:1 K:BB, 6.35 K/9. In 3 of his last 5 starts prior to the deadline he went at least 7 2/3 IP and gave up 4 or less Hits and 1 ER or less. He is a very streaky pitcher it seems. Last June prior to being traded to the A's his June looked like this: 1-3 5.45 ERA, 33 IP, 40 H, 20 ER. I will agree with you on the maybe we weren't offered enough, so we said no thanks. I do think some other GM will try to sign him this offseason and we should get a comp pick. If you were Samardzija would you take a 1 year deal at $15 and hope you have a great season or a 4 year deal at $52 total. I know I would take the 4 year deal. If that happens I have no issue that we kept him around if we didn't like the potential return for him as a rental. Is that comp pick worth more than what we gave up to the A's though?

So is that reviewable?

Why would you let him face the top of the order for a 4th time?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 14, 2015 -> 03:43 PM) Next time we get a DH, we might want to find a hitter actually accustomed to and comfortable sitting on the bench or simply junk it for the rotating/resting 4-5 guys idea... We have a DH for the foreseeable future, his name is Jose Abreu. He has a career .916 OPS as a DH, and .917 OPS as a 1B.