Timmy U

Cowser’s problems have been hitting spin, I believe, not velocity. And that does concern me. As we’ve witnessed with Vaughn, if you cannot hit spin, you’ll see plenty of it.

I have watched 40+ AB’s from Gonzalez since he signed. I would be shocked if he hits. At all. The swing is really really unorthodox. Now, I get it, he was concentrating on hitting the ball to left after being a dead pull hitter in college and he cannot hit like that. Almost everything to the opposite field was a blooper/weak pop up. He has great strike zone awareness, so maybe he goes back to being a dead pull hitter and contributes that way. Defensively, he’s a lot like Montgomery: smooth, makes the right play, not awesome range, and sometimes his internal clock is too slow. If he hits, it’s playable. I am just not confident he’s gonna hit.

I agree that the O's have the #1 farm system, no doubt. But it shows what a crapshoot all of this is that 3 of their top 5 prospects -- Basallo, Kjerstad, and Mayo -- all have significant 1b risk. Finding middle of the diamond players like Holliday, or for that matter Luis Robert, is pretty dang hard.

I gotta say, this board sells Quero short on intangibles. He works well with pitchers and extremely savvy. The questions with him are measureables. He's not a big guy and the tools don't really pop other than possibly the hit tool. But he really knows how to play the game.

Neither the Hill or the Maldonado signing makes a whit of difference, really. But it's really depressing to watch a crappy team stock up on crappy 30-something players so you can't even root for player improvement. Best case scenario is watching a bunch of journeyman do better than expected so you can flip them in the deadline. I'm getting the sense that 2024 isn't even Year Zero of a rebuild. 2025 will be that after they can get out from under Moncada and Eloy's contracts. Realistically, this team may not be competitive until 2027 or 2028.

We should. Although I think for this year a blindfold will be more useful.

If hitting .070 in 70 ab's or hitting .180 over a 2-year period makes you viable, it is hard to say who does or does not clear the very low bar to be a starting catcher in the majors these days. Seby Zavala had very good defensive metrics and ran into one now and again, the Sox released him. Hackenberg is never gonna be an impact bat, but the arm is a howitzer. Is he viable? Turner throws well, is a leader and hits lefty. Could he be a late bloomer? I think when Stassi and Maldonado are what you're aiming for, it's gets hard to rule anyone out as a possibility.

Rankings are meaningless until the Sox fix their development system and get at least one core competency. Historically, they have been bad at drafting, hitters never improve in their system, and their pitching development has been questionable at best. Montgomery and Schultz gave me hope for their drafts, but picking Gonzalez collapsed that for me. For my money, they are one of the three worst orgs along with KC and Colorado until proven otherwise.

If a volume deal was going to get this done, it would have been done at the deadline. Sox need at least one impact player in a Cease deal. The O’s don’t want to be a counterparty in a deal like that. I simply think these two teams are not a match

I think when you're headed into a bunch of losing seasons, you gotta go for upside. AJSS is a fast riser with ++ stuff. If it goes South, he's a reliever. If he hits, he's a top 3 starter. Ortiz has a high utility risk. Even if he hits, he's a second division regular. Yawn. Plus, by the time the Sox are any good, he'll be like 29. The two are simply not comparable to me.

Interesting. It really depends on how you evaluate Caissie. No one hit the ball harder than he did last year, but that is a big swing. If you believe in the bat, go for it, but he has a gigantic bust potential. I've watched him play some and I'm really on the fence.

Who are the O's offering who's better than AJSS? It ain't Ortiz. So far, the two best players being talked about as being in packages being offered are AJSS from ATL and Chase Petty from the Reds. The Sox can only say yes to packages that are on offer. Just because the O's have players they won't give up who are better than those guys doesn't mean the guys they are willing to give up are particularly enticing.

I think we simply disagree on the player. Grissom has already hit in the majors and he's a good enough athlete to play either IF or OF. I don't like him as much as Cowser, but Cowser isn't available. I do not see a world in which Atlanta gives you BOTH Waldrep and AJSS. Obviously, getting both would be awesome. But I like AJSS a lot. If the Sox were that into Waldrep, they should have drafted him instead of Gonzalez.

I think the Sox see Quero as their catcher of the future. He's got a lot of work to do both offensively and defensively but he flashes in both areas. Plus, he really knows how to play the game. His intangibles are through the roof. Maybe he hits seventh in a decent line up and peaks as Omar Narvaez during his good years, but you can win with a player like that.

Also, AAA EV's have to be put into context. You know who had pretty damn good EV's in AA/AAA? Lenyn Sosa. Does not mean it projects to the majors. Hell, Adam Haseley destroyed AAA, and he's not that much older than Ortiz. Popeye Rodriguez plays GG defense at 2b and has mondo EV's, but no one's clamoring for him. Truth is, the Sox need OF help and this front office desires pitchers. Without Cowser or Kjerstad, I just don't think the O's are a match. Nothing wrong with that. Vaughn Grissom and Smith-Shawver + is a better package than anything we've heard being offered by the O's. As far as keeping Cease, the Sox are gonna lose a lot with him or without him, but if you keep him him, maybe with cold weather and improved D, the Sox can be in spitting distance of .500 until June. That'll sell tickets and maybe prevent a complete collapse of the fan base. That's worth a hell of a lot more than the $8 million he's scheduled to make.

There's a huge difference in how they're perceived as team/clubhouse presences. Soroka is A+. If the Sox are all about building a culture Manoah may not be a guy they want to bring in.

Great. You guys should keep him then.

Thanks for the insight. I am not in on Ortiz period. He's like Arroyo from the Reds with a lower ceiling. Good glove, maybe 50 hit, 45 power. A guy like that doesn't have to miss his projection by much to be a utility guy. And he's not young. Obviously, the O's aren't giving up Holliday, but if the headliner is Ortiz, the Sox will have a bunch of better options. Hell, Atlanta's rumored package is way better than that and the two teams have made a couple of deals already. I predict the O's will prospect-hug and go dumpster diving to add to the rotation. I feel like if a deal was going to happen between these two teams, it would have happened already.

Nor should they be. Maybe he's going to be their 3rd catcher as well as a back up infielder?

I see 20th on mlb pipeline's midseason. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

Wait. They've already got several unknown lefty relievers. In fact, the whole bullpen is basically unknowns. Seems redundant.

Yet another player the Sox could have drafted instead of Gonzalez that they would love to have in trade. Shanking the best draft in the last 10 years is going to haunt them for a while.

I believe the charges have always been in the D.R. The justice system there is very erratic with the whiff of corruption. Remember when Oneil Cruz looked like he'd never play again? The Franco situation seems bad right now, but it's very hard to predict exactly how it's gonna end.

Final Jeopardy answer: In 2023, he managed to be worse offensively and defensively than Yasmani Grandal, while being over 2 years older. (Who is Martin Maldonado?)

I'd say "stick a fork in him" but all my forks are currently in Benintendi, DeJong, and Stassi.