shysocks

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 05:59 PM) I stumbled across an article yesterday that speculated Seattle does have room in the payroll for VMart. I have no idea if that's true or not but it could make sense. I'm guessing VMart lands in KC. I would guess the Royals aren't willing to spend that kind of money, whether he fits their roster or not.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 04:11 PM) Did the Rangers give a QO to Rios? No, and they'd have been stupid to do so.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 03:52 PM) Some interesting players receiving QO's. 36 year old Michael Cuddyer and Francisco Liriano both received QO's today. Heres the list so far Melky Cabrera LF Michael Cuddyer 1B / RF Francisco Liriano Russell Martin C Victor Martinez 1B / DH Ervin Santana Max Scherzer James Shields I think David Robertson got one as well. Ervin Santana is interesting, I imagine he'll reject it but he might have a hard time on the market now.

His value is mostly tied to good fantasy team names.

This has been argued to death already so I'll keep it short: Don't pay old guys coming off a career year. It's a bad idea. Just don't do it.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 01:27 PM) Tigers extend qualifying offers to Scherzer and Martinez. Makes Martinez less likely now. Andy Dirks was also claimed by the Blue Jays. Tigers also out righted Don Kelly and Evan Reed I don't think this makes VMart any less likely, as there was always a 100% chance he would get a QO.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 08:31 AM) The Royals didn't have hardly anyone with playoff experience either. BUT THEY LOST GAME 7 BY ONE RUN IF THEY HAD EL DUQUE THEY PROBABLY WOULD HAVE WON.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 08:32 AM) I'd be okay if he is this year's Felipe Paulino. That said, the fact that his $4m option was declined may be telling RE: his health I could see him having a Rich Harden-like renaissance at some point, but I wouldn't bet on it.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 02:22 PM) Yes but aside from closer, our bullpen has been rotten for a long long time. Think of all the lousy relievers the Sox have had since winning the WS cept for closer. And now there is no viable closer either. One, you should rework your definition of rotten. From 2005 to 2014 the Sox bullpen ranked 2, 10, 12, 8, 8, 5, 9, 8, 11, and 14 in ERA in the AL. Typically middle of the pack, and that in a stat that puts a team playing in US Cellular Field at a disadvantage. Two, it's beside the point anyway, because from 2005-2007, the three years prior to their turnaround, the Rays bullpen ranked 13th, 12th, and 14th in the AL. The year before that they were 3rd. The year before that they were 8th. The year before that they were 13th. Bullpens are volatile. I know you aren't a stats guy but hear me out on this, it doesn't use any sabermetrics, just a little statistical jargon. From 1998 to 2012 I looked at each AL team's bullpen ERA. I picked those years because the Brewers switched in '98 and the AL had 14 teams the whole time, so it made things easier on me. I compared each bullpen's ERA to its ERA in the previous year and got the R-squared value, which basically tells us how predictable something is. If every team's bullpen finished with the same ERA every year (Yankees 4.25, A's 3.33, Sox 4.00, etc.), that number would be 1.0. Instead, it was .136. That means you can predict about 14% of a bullpen's performance by looking at the previous year; the rest is due to other factors. It means it is extremely difficult to predict how a team's bullpen will do based just on the previous season. I did the same test for starting ERA and got .319. With runs scored, it's .312. There are always teams that surprise in any avenue, like the Sox offense going from dead last to middling from 2013 to 2014, or the starters' ERA going from first to middling from 2005 to 2006. But with bullpens it really happens constantly.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 03:45 PM) timdierkes ‏@timdierkes 1m1 minute ago Felipe Paulino has been told his $4MM club option will not be picked up by the White Sox.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 02:03 PM) I think the gap is huge because they can play defense and have great pitching all around. The White Sox bullpen is just plain putrid; the Sox defense is very poor and the Sox team speed can't match KC's. Frankly they are going to own us head to head again next year. If I have to keep reminding people that the 2008 Rays took their worst-of-all-time bullpen and turned it into a positive in one offseason, I'll keep doing it. So: the 2008 Rays took their worst-of-all-time bullpen and turned it into a positive in one offseason. Bullpens can be quick to shape up. As for team speed, the three LCS teams besides the Royals were 28th, 29th, and 30th in stolen bases, and six of the ten playoff teams were below average at baserunning. The playoffs included both the best baserunning team in the majors (Washington) and the worst (Cardinals). It's nice but not essential. The defensive gap is a real concern and KC will have a very strong defense again next year, especially if they let Aoki go and Dyson sees more time.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 01:37 PM) That's gotta be a reflection of all the action they're getting because of the hire, not an actual belief that their likelihood of winning increased that much. QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 01:42 PM) It's most likely a combination of both. I'd say it's pretty heavily weighted towards the former. Think about how many Cub fans probably went and put money on them yesterday, or are about to. They're not sharks looking for the best value, they're just fans in a happy delirium. The book doesn't want to give all those people 50 to 1 because they're gonna bet anyway.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 01:33 PM) Bovada changed their odds this morning from 50:1 to 33:1 That's gotta be a reflection of all the action they're getting because of the hire, not an actual belief that their likelihood of winning increased that much.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 12:46 PM) The Joe Maddon walks on water is over the top and TV and radio in Chicago are all over it. McFail, Dusty,Lou, Rudy Jaramillo, Theo and now Maddon. The same crap after each hire. So far, nothing, and until they actually sign better players and their prospects actually prove they can play in the major leagues, it still will be nothing. Joe Maddon averaged 97 or 98 losses his first 2 years with Tampa. Listening to "experts" its hard to believe he couldn't take 25 random Soxtalk posters and not win 90 games. The players are what really matters. Jose Abreu was a far bigger signing than Joe Maddon, and even though it got a lot of play, especially for a White Sox move, it will be nothing compared to what is going to happen when this becomes official. Silly I say. Well said, all of it. But most importantly, I volunteer. I'm a lefty.

It was probably a little of both. On one hand, they were not afraid of Moustakas on deck and who knows whether Yost even would have pinch hit. On the other hand, letting the series winning run on base wouldn't have been a terrific idea.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 10:14 AM) ...most scouts would take Duffy going forward over Quintana... Uninterested in the rest of this argument, but I'm pretty sure that is false.

JR Smith was -22 last night. I think I'll have to be committed if the Bulls ever employ him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 09:08 AM) They have had a solid bullpen for a few years. Some of the names have changed, but if they ever get to the point Frankie Francisco has to be given a shot, they will be in a lot of trouble. Bullpen has definitely been a strength of theirs for a while, but that trio was as good as they could possibly ever be this year, and if they're any worse the Royals miss the playoffs. They'll need some other guys to step up in the pen because those three are all they had. I'll be surprised if they win more games than they did this year.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 09:17 AM) I suppose I have. Don't really care though. As soon as the Sox won a World Series that s*** ended for me. I like the Cubs plan. I like the prospects. I hope that they get good and push the White Sox to remain good as well. It's f***ing Chicago. Both teams should be consistently good. I guess I'd just rather have Joe Maddon in town than somewhere else. Same with me, for a short while. But then you had the three straight playoff appearances, and now the 2017-2025 world champs. It's probably half character flaw in me and half the way they express themselves, but Cub fan excitement is poisonous to my good mood.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Oct 29, 2014 -> 02:45 PM) I got the Giants. I think Bumgarner will throw more innings and be a bigger factor than we expect. I went out on a limb and predicted that Bumgarner would pitch well, so I deserve some sort of prize.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 30, 2014 -> 07:25 AM) The built in hatred for a team in the NL that happens to be across town cracks me up sometimes. Have you had to deal with Cub fans your whole life? I'm genuinely asking, not being a smartass. Because that's where my hatred is borne from; they're the worst.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 29, 2014 -> 04:53 PM) The arrow is definitely pointing up, but they will never ever live up to the hype even if they somehow managed to win it all once or twice. All it takes is one for their fans to set the all time insufferability record.

QUOTE (fathom @ Oct 29, 2014 -> 07:17 PM) I can't believe I have to watch Hinrich again this year. Also, what a terrible charge call on Rose. Joey Crawford is the ref and don't you ever forget it.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 29, 2014 -> 02:35 PM) So... Royals or Giants? I got the Giants. I think Bumgarner will throw more innings and be a bigger factor than we expect.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 29, 2014 -> 10:16 AM) The more and more research I've done into Dominic Brown, the more I want the Sox to avoid him at all costs. Like I don't even want them to trade Viciedo for him. I almost said that but cut it out. Viciedo has youth, Brown has the one good season, so to me it's about a toss-up. If the Sox trade Viciedo, I'll probably just be too upset that they tendered him an offer at all and will hate whoever comes back. Move. On.