shysocks

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 20, 2014 -> 12:03 AM) Thanks for the conceptual understanding - now can you give me idea who it's use apples numerically in the practical example of Dukes 2014 season splits ( 1.76 vs 2.72 ).... Or whatever the numbers where. It's designed to work on an ERA scale, so Duke's ERA "should have been" 1.76 and 2.72 by half if the context of all his appearances was neutral. xFIP adds an additional layer by regressing a guy's home run-to-fly ball ratio to league average - I don't necessarily agree with that approach because some would consider limiting homers a skill. Looking into Duke's splits some more: 1st half: .210/.248/.283/.531 2nd half: .244/.326/.329/.655 A .655 OPS is fine and certainly doesn't match up with a 4.79 ERA. Control problems are the primary reason for the increase, as he walked 10 in the second half against only 7 in the first. Otherwise, a .244 average against a ground ball pitcher is fine and a .329 slugging is great. 30% of his earned runs on the season came in three bad outings in a row in early August. After that he did well: 14 innings, 6 earned runs, 15 hits (14 singles, 1 triple), 0 HR, 14 K, 3 BB, 69% GB. So it goes when you split small reliever samples up even further. I'm not inclined to worry about it but some are, and that's fine.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 04:06 PM) I am holding you to that one because there is a bit of logic behind that deal. There is - it's almost a perfect storm. 1) Toronto is crowded at catcher and the odd man out has an easily movable contract. 2) The Sox are a team that would benefit from having two catchers splitting time. 3) Toronto is losing an incumbent outfielder. But it's still predicated on somebody thinking Viciedo is not terrible, which I cannot imagine. It's like if I tried to speak Hungarian - my brain just can't make sense of it.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 03:45 PM) Same here. The nice thing about a move like that is it would only add 1M more to the payroll. This is based on Toronto having interest in Tank which, for some reason because he is terrible, I kinda doubt but who knows? I clarified the reason. If Toronto makes that trade, I promise I will eat my hat.

Nobody should want him to be a reliever. If "beer vendor" was an option, I would hope it would get more votes than reliever.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 10:31 AM) There are superior options other then danks but do you want the sox to sink a ton of money into the rotation then. Scherzer is a superior option. So your saying if we can replace danks we should get scherzer. Also for the sox to have league average in the rotation then the sox need to have 3 new starters to go with sale and quintana. How about we get Lester, scherzer and shields so that we don't have to worry about guys like danks or the other options the sox have that aren't danks types with bad eras Pretty sure that's not what he was saying. From wite earlier in the thread: "I don't want them going with [Danks] out of veteran deferance or contractual status. I want them going with him because he's one of the 5 best starting pitchers, even if that's below league average."

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 09:50 AM) In general, 5th starters do have ERAs that are below league average. What is the league average ERA for a 5th starter? That would be very tough to find, because obviously teams don't designate guys with a number, and you'd have injury replacements and guys who made like 11 starts muddling everything too. I looked up the ERA of the bottom 20% of qualified starters and got 4.53 so it's probably in that ballpark on the higher side. EDIT: Bottom 20% refers to bottom 20% in ERA, by the way.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 09:11 AM) My 2 cents on danks. The difference with duke vs danks is that duke is a failed starter and danks is not. You guys are complaining about paying 10 million AAV for miller but would be fine with danks and 14 plus million in the pen. If danks is on the team is most value to the team is starting pitcher. Again he made 32 starts tied with quintana on the team and had 193 innings second most behind quintana. A 5th starter to make 32 starts, 193 innings and sub 5 era isn't nothing to sneeze at. Yes he's being paid way more then a 5th starter. The major difference is that Danks is a sunk cost while we'd be throwing new money at Miller. I do think Danks is better suited for the rotation right now, by the way. There is value in a guy who makes 32 starts as long as they're above replacement level, which is where Danks is. He was about a 1 WAR guy and that's where I'm guessing he'll be next year and the year after too. That makes his contract bad but not an abomination, and I'll quote DA again: QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 08:31 AM) If it were me, I'd dump the contract if I could, but it wouldn't be a top priority, and I wouldn't dump it in lieu of receiving talent.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 19, 2014 -> 08:31 AM) My point is , while Danks is now overpaid, and won't be sought by other teams, he does provide something to the White Sox. He isn't totally useless. I know quality starts are laughable for some here, but he had almost as many as Max Scherzer, and he pitched nearly 200 innings. He has always been, even pre-surgery, a guy who when he was hit around, he was really hit around. There are a few more games of that right now, but if it is conceivable that Zach Duke can turn his career around and be "fixed" at 31, Danks can learn to pitch with stuff that is shorter than what he had. If it were me, I'd dump the contract if I could, but it wouldn't be a top priority, and I wouldn't dump it in lieu of receiving talent. Awesome post, and the bolded aligns completely with my thoughts. If Danks is packaged in any Alexei deal (and I don't think he will be, and I very much doubt there will even be any Alexei deal) it would be a mistake.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 01:13 PM) It's a story we have heard before. Guy has a big year, and has found it. Maybe it has happened before, but he DOUBLED his career k-rate at age 31. Has anyone A. Ever done that, and B. Sustained it for a few years? His 2014 was the outlier of all outliers. I have no idea if A and B have ever happened, but the fact that such a drastic change occurred for a pitcher should clue you in that an actual change was made in his mechanics, pitch mix, or both. There is a difference between a statistical outlier and a guy becoming a different player. The Sox obviously targeted this guy, noted something different, and believe it's the latter. Whether he can continue to be effective and adjust when the league's scouting catches up, we'll see. But if we take his career K rate of 5 and last year's of 11 and split the difference at 8, I will guess he is above 8 going forward.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 01:17 PM) <!--quoteo(post=3078775:date=Nov 18, 2014 -> 01:10 PM:name=Dick Allen)-->QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 01:10 PM) <!--quotec-->I'll bet anyone Surkamp is better than Duke in 2015.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 01:10 PM) If you ever learned how to read my posts it would be incredible. But this is along the lines of Keppinger, and Belisario and Downs and Paulino, except a little larger. It isn't a player who has had a lot of success. He has been around forever, and he will be paid based on 2014. I'll bet anyone Surkhamp is better than Duke in 2015. I'll take that bet a hundred times.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 09:24 AM) So, not necessarily winter, but can you all remember a more crazy group of events to affect a commute in a single morning? Plane hits house in midway, Fire at a school shuts down all northbound trains (red/brown/purple), bus fire shuts down LSD south, and the travel times were at 1.5 hrs getting through almost every highway. These are the days where I praise the cosmos that my commute is a walk.

Can somebody photoshop him into either the General Lee, or the Bush's Baked Beans commercial where the dog is always trying to reveal the secret recipe? Seriously, I'm so glad there's a guy named Duke on the Sox.

OPS allowed 2014: .569 v L, .586 v R If 2014 Duke is the true Duke, as the Sox are obviously betting, then he's no LOOGY.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:38 PM) I'd rather have Duke at 3/15 than Miller at 4/40+. Amen to that but the third year makes me cringe just a bit. Run out 'n git yer Duke jerseys!

Clips seem like a team that we'll be hearing poisonous locker room stories about in the near future. Lots of bad vibes.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:15 PM) Would it be reasonable to say a relief pitcher will pitch 60-70 innings of a possible 1,450 total team-pitched innings? That makes 10M a year seem crazy for MR. 4% of total innings for 10% of payroll? I agree with you, but the counterarguments would be: 1) A reliever pitches higher leverage situations, when every out or baserunner potentially has a much higher impact on the game's outcome. 2) A reliever's innings are generally more effective than a starter's, for any number of reasons.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 12:11 PM) A brief on Duke: Your browser does not support iframes. This was October of 2012 with the Nationals. Notice the 3/4 arm angle and how long the batter can see the ball. He gets the guy out, but with so much time to see the ball, you are going to make much better contact with the ball. Pitchers can still be successful, but they won't get strikeouts with the stuff Duke has. Your browser does not support iframes. This was in September for the Reds of 2013. Notice that he's dropped down and does a much better job of keeping the ball behind him. His breaking ball also has a much better sweeping motion to it. This seems to be a change he made while rehabbing or pitching in the minors of 2013. His splits after coming back up in 2013: .205/.244/.308, though the K% wasn't there yet. Your browser does not support iframes. This was in May of 2014. He's still coming from the side, but he's even sped up getting the ball to the plate. It comes in at 91 but with the inability to see it, it looks a lot faster than that. --- I could see this backfiring, but I'm really OK with this move. I gather from the titles of those videos that he gets out of a lot of jams...

Also, never underestimate what a good baseball name is worth. Who would you rather have on the mound - Scott Downs or ZACH DUKE?

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 11:58 AM) I'm confused by the way he wrote this. So did Zach Duke "allow" 20% of inherited runners to score, and the white sox 32%? Or did Duke "hold" 80% of runners and White Sox only 32%? Confusing switching of terminology there. Yeah it was. Without looking it up, assuming he meant what it would read if the "(80 percent)" was omitted: Duke allowed 20 percent to score, Sox allowed 32 percent to score. The Sox bullpen holding only 32% of inherited runners seems like it would be an apocalyptic number. Doubt this is a three-year contract as some have guessed. I'm guessing 2/$9. Fine with the signing and even if his K-rate isn't real he has the ground ball chops that we've trended towards. Better this than Miller.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 18, 2014 -> 07:03 AM) Cubs fans are so much more loyal numerous than White Sox fans it isn't even funny.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 17, 2014 -> 08:29 PM) Yahoo Sports ‏@YahooSports 2h2 hours ago Jose Canseco is selling his detached finger and the gun that shot if off --> http://yhoo.it/1xJNiWd We're all unwittingly involved in a prank that Jose Canseco is playing on all of us. Every last one of us.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 17, 2014 -> 07:23 PM) In an odd way, if the Sox are interested in Cabrera the suspension is actually helpful. If the guy hadn't been busted, he'd be looking at something like a nine figure deal, much like Panda. The amount of teams that are going to hold that against him should serve to keep his price down. PED cheats: the new Market Inefficiency. I have no problem rooting for a known user because I can guarantee that we're already rooting for unknown users. But Melky is about as proven a hitter as there is - I largely blame injury for his rough 2013. He is obviously a fit for the Sox and could be the elusive guy to hit second. I wouldn't shy away from a 4-year deal.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 14, 2014 -> 08:36 AM) Hamstrings and ankles were injuries that were popping up the season he first blew out the knee in the playoffs. He might just be one of these guys that cannot stay healthy. I understand the whole pacing himself for the playoffs, but if the rest of this season goes like this first portion or the strike shortened season he played, good luck thinking he will be able to give you 35 minutes each playoff game. The ankle was just stepping on a foot. This seems very minor, no medical staff checking him out. The team all smiles after the game. They were freaking out when he really hurt himself, but a pattern has developed. It is almost as if you expect him to tweak something every game, and he almost always does. They are injuries that can happen to everyone, but now they seem to always happen to him. I just hope I can get to the point sometime this season I can just enjoy his play, and not be focused on or expecting his physical demise again. This is every Bulls fan's dilemma. It's so unfortunate.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Nov 13, 2014 -> 03:44 PM) I don't think those are really comparable. Those seem more like glitches that you actively had to seek out. There are parts in newer games where you literally can't play a major portion of the game. I think a better comparison would be the schlock released on the NES which I believe directly lead to the "seal of quality" and pressure on 1st parties to actually handle quality control. This is true but that's because there's no over seeing body of the pc games market. Microsoft and Sony are supposed to provide for some quality control to allow publishing on their system but they have obviously have completely abandoned that even in their own freaking 1st party games. It's sad. That is true and a good point, I was just pointing out that games are rarely squeaky clean. I agree with everything else you said as well.