shysocks

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 10:12 AM) What? How? How is Melky not a SUBTSTANTIAL offensive upgrade over Viciedo? How is Viciedo any better defensively? Think he meant Viciedo's not much of an upgrade over JorDanks/whoever.

If we combined this thread with the other Evan Longoria thread it would be 10 pages...

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 11:20 AM) This is all generated mathematically and, as I said, there's no bias, so while I think he will perform better than that, I can understand why he's projected for what he is. It's the same as my reasoning for Avisail Garcia above...it's projecting him to hit decently and to continue his porous fielding and to end up with a WAR of 0.3, but Steamer projects him for 1 WAR and I think he will put up something closer to 2. That's my gut belief based on what I know from his talent and the work he's putting it, but projection systems don't base projections based on how badly a guy wants to be good or how hard he is working, they base it on far more tangible information. There are an infinite number of factors that these projection systems aren't including that we as human beings can account for, but the information that these use is the statistics and it's incredible how much correlates year to year based on that information alone. Not suggesting bias, just suggesting wrongness. Horrible Year followed by Bad Year followed by Mediocre Year = Horrible Year is something that, unlike you, I cannot understand. Just not getting it. And I realize that's an over-simplification.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 10:12 AM) With regards to Noesi, my guess is that it's looking at his AAA and MLB career prior to arriving with the White Sox and putting a lot of stock in that. It's legitimately possible that Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but that would assume his talent has changed and comparing all of his numbers across the board, there doesn't appear to be any significant talent change. If there has been, we will see it this year and projection systems will reflect it more next year. With Danks, it sees an aging pitcher losing velocity with mediocre to poor strikeout numbers whose command worsened, implying that he's going to allow a lot of baserunners and he's going to be completely dependent upon his defense to get out of those situations and will allow more home runs moving forward. Again, unless there is a shift in talent somehow, it's safe to assume John Danks is going to be bad. Even taking all that into account, -1.6 WAR between them framed as the most likely possibility is ridiculous. By no means do I think Noesi is a 1 WAR pitcher, but it has him at a 139 FIP-, essentially equal to the 143 he put up in his -0.7 WAR 2012, but then getting more innings to hit -1.2. It's like the data since then didn't inform anything at all. Can you admit that seems off?

So the most likely outcome for Danks and Noesi is that they each have the worst year of their careers. Did they both turn 42 and I wasn't aware?

QUOTE (TomPickle @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 08:32 PM) ZiPS projections Not sure if these are legit or where you got them, but I find it extremely unlikely that Danks and Noesi combine for -1 WAR.

QUOTE (ron883 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 06:46 PM) Yes, I am a Bulls fan. I don't care if Rose cheated on a test either. Well that's a double standard. Rose cheated on a test so he could enter the NCAA system, get drafted first overall, and make more money than if he hadn't cheated. Melky Cabrera took a substance to improve his performance so he could make more money than if he hadn't taken it - and unlike Rose, he has been legitimately punished. I mean, the mental gymnastics to judge one of these situations okay and the other worthy of swearing off a team..

Emilio Bonifacio career splits: vs L: .291/.340/.380/.720 vs R: .250/.311/.326/.637 We really could use him.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 03:07 PM) Robertson: "I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think this team wasn’t capable of getting to the playoffs." Effortless triple negative there.

This is a cheapskate move. Might as well bring in Doug Nickle too. ... ...I'll leave.

WHY NOT GILLASPIE

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 41m41 minutes ago White Sox moved quickly. Jeff Samardzija jerseys are already available. PSA: Don't buy a jersey if the guy might not be on the team next year.

Goin' with 84-78.

Avisail becomes a legitimately good hitter. The top 3 in the rotation stay healthy. The bullpen is at least league average.

Buying a Pick 14 any day now.

So many double standards in here.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 03:26 PM) White Sox #2 hitters had a .279 OBP in 2014. Abreu still drove in 100. That's one reason this is so huge. We HAD to have a 2 hitter. Those worried about rooting for a cheater might as well quit watching sports. You've been supporing cheaters for years whether you want to admit it or not.

Love it, this is my favorite move of the offseason. This team didn't have a #2 hitter and now it got the best one available. And I would have been fine with Melky at 4/$60, having to go three years is an early Hannukah miracle.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 12:13 PM) Until the roster is finalized, it's hard to give a final prediction but this has the looks of a 82-85 win team. I think KC and Detroit both take a small step back this year. If everything goes right, Sox may be competing for a playoff spot but they need health and career years from a handful of guys This is exactly how I feel right now. To me the best hope seems to be Avisail making a leap but I don't know how likely that is.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) So you tell me...why should I focus more on FIP than ERA+? I'm curious what your thoughts are on which one is more valuable / why. Well I didn't cite FIP, I cited FIP-, which is park and league adjusted like ERA+. I'm not too interested in a philosophical FIP/ERA debate right now, but in general I think FIP has more predictive value while ERA is better for answering, "How good was this guy's season?" But for this argument I'd point to FIP because we're talking about who we'd rather have next season, and because only 5 qualified starters had a larger deficit of their ERA to their FIP last season than Simon. He also isn't a guy who has built up a track record of being able to consistently outdo his peripherals; the season before 2014 where he had a significant number of starts was 2011, and in that year his ERA was quite a bit higher than his FIP.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 03:36 PM) Doesn't ERA+ take those factors into account? It does. Simon's ERA has been substantially better than Noesi's without a doubt, but their FIPs are more comparable. I don't really think either is any good, for the record. If I had to pick one to start the wild card game, I'd shrug my shoulders and pray for rain.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 03:29 PM) Simon: 3.34 ERA/4.33 FIP/196.1 IP Noesi: 4.75 ERA/4.83 FIP/172.1 IP I'm not saying Simon is awesome, but I don't see any argument at all the he didn't have a substantially better 2014 than Noesi. And it's hard to make any sort of positive argument for Noesi outside of 2014. The argument is that Simon pitched in the NL and FIP doesn't account for that. FIP-: Simon 116, Noesi 123. Depends on your definition of "substantially" I guess.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:15 AM) I just looked at 2014 numbers. Same story in 2014. .291/.364/.390 v L .256/.326/.398 v R Seriously - somebody make sure Robin knows about this.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 11, 2014 -> 11:09 AM) Doesn't look like this guy has any platoon split differential. Look again, he absolutely does. Career: .284/.354/.403 against L .233/.322/.389 against R Hope somebody tells Robin - this one's tricky!

Jennings has significant reverse splits. Either way this is fine. The org was clearly done with Rienzo.