shysocks

What? Did this guy do any research?

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Jan 21, 2015 -> 03:09 PM) The power is actually one of the few things in the this-works-right-now category. The things we need dramatically improved are..nearly....all the rest of it. In his limited time last year, yes, he looked like a guy who could have 50 XBH's. I think we'd be satisfied with that and it would work, as you say, but it's far from proven. Said another way: ZiPS has his ISO backsliding a little. I don't think that'll happen.

QUOTE (Stev-o @ Jan 21, 2015 -> 02:57 PM) Am I the only one who's not completely sold on Avi? Please reassure me. You're not alone. I do think he'll start to flash more power this year but he needs to hit the ball in the air sometimes to do that. I'm not convinced that his defense will ever be better than awful or that he can be a patient hitter. A lot is riding on him. The easiest way for this team to go from the middle-of-the-pack type that they're projected as to a real contender is him making a leap.

inb4 I'd rather have him than Viciedo.

Here's each guy's wRC+ last year, then Steamer-projected wRC+ this year (no ZiPS for the Cubs yet). Obviously this is super simplistic and doesn't account for unequal plate appearances or anything else, really. Pretty close either way. Eaton......115 102 Melky......125 115 Abreu......165 143 LaRoche...127 116 Avisail.......98 100 Gillaspie...108 95 Sum.........738 671 Fowler......124 107 Coghlan....123 94 Rizzo........153 138 Castro......115 101 Soler........146 117 Montero......90 100 Sum.........751 657

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 20, 2015 -> 12:54 PM) Can I use hot sauce? I'll take the under, but give me 89.5 to make it nice and round at "below 90." Fine, 89.5. You can season and prepare the hat however you'd like. It might as well taste good.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 20, 2015 -> 10:19 AM) 95 wouldn't SHOCK me, in that it's possible, but I think it would be him having another "good" season. His career 83 seems more likely, though Steamer's projected 76 seems a bit harsh as it projects a below career and below league average BABIP. Also, I don't think it's that useful to break him (or anyone) down by month -- it's normal for players to be streaky by month, what they end up with at the end of the season is what is most helpful for evaluation/prediction. He's most likely going to lose 50 or 60 points on his average on ball in play next year, and probably 5% or so on his HR/FB rate, and I think that is going to contribute to a sub-90 Only cited June because wite pointed to his HR/FB in September. I understand all the arguments based on his peripherals, I think I just dissected his season and came to a different conclusion than you. ZiPS somehow has him at a higher OPS than last year and it knows all about his batted ball profile. Let's bet on it. Put the wRC+ over/under at 88.5. Loser has to eat a hat.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 18, 2015 -> 11:16 PM) Finally watching this episode for CFs, and I didn't know Eaton's WAR was 5.2 last year. That's insane. QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 18, 2015 -> 11:45 PM) Didn't he have a 2.7 fWAR? Or am I missing something Both right. Eaton had one of the widest bWAR-fWAR gaps in baseball last year because the defensive systems disagreed about him. UZR said he was below average, DRS said he was really good.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jan 17, 2015 -> 02:08 PM) It should at very least be a good frame of reference. Would you argue that the value of the two seasons I referenced were drastically different? Pierzynski 2005 wRC+ 88 Flowers 20014 wRC+ 93 They both grade out positively as defenders and game callers. If you want to give a slight edge to AJ, that's fine. The point I was making remains: if Tyler Flowers is "a hole" on this team, well, you can win a World Series with a hole (see 2005). AJ proves that you can win with "a hole" as well as A-hole. QUOTE (lvjeremylv @ Jan 17, 2015 -> 01:10 AM) Ha, I was trying to be diplomatic.

So I managed to get in a few hours of Evolve before the "beta" closed. There were definitely some matchmaking issues that soured my attitude and as a result I was a little bit underwhelmed, but it was still a lot of fun. It seemed well balanced - if you lost as the hunters it was because there was a weak link in the team or somebody wandered off, and if you lost as the monster it's because you weren't elusive enough. Only saw one of the monster types my whole time. Trapper is the coolest hunter class; the second trapper you unlock has these sound spikes you can scatter around the map that detect the monster, and keeping tabs on the monster is the most important thing. I have four friends who I regularly game with and the five of us were never able to get on at the same time for 4v1's, but I think that would have pushed it to another level. The s***-talking potentail is so strong.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:05 PM) If we assume everybody who has a hot month "made a change," we're going to be wrong practically every time. The better question to ask is: "do we have any reason to believe he DID make a change?" Because history shows us that month-over-month performance is frequently all over the place for all players. The normal effect is that he'd be inconsistent. Also, I disagree that 12 vs 15 homers is insignificant. the wOBA constant for a homer was 2.135 runs last year, so those three extra homers were worth 6.405 runs, or roughly two thirds of a win. Without those homers, he had a 1.2 fWAR season, which is suddenly NOT within earshot of a league average season. Still well worth $2m, but not starting-catcher-on-a-contender material. Those flies could also become doubles, which adds about a half run back on (1.283 double constant * .126 league fly ball BABIP * 3 = .485; I'm assuming the type of flies that affect HR/FB rate would turn into doubles far more often than singles). I cited GB/FB rate by half as evidence that perhaps he changed his approach. Unless a 95 wRC+ from him next year would shock you, I don't think we even disagree by much here. Lemme put it this way - I'll live with 1 WAR because Flowers is about 20th on my list of things that will make or break the Sox. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 03:23 PM) Tyler Flowers, September: 43 PAs, .268/.302/.683/.985, 11 H (4 1B, 2 2B, 5 HR), 1 HBP, 1 BB, 18 K, 1.43 GB/FB, 71.4% HR/FB Bolded for emphasis. I'm not expecting him to repeat a .401 OPS June either.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 02:34 PM) Way more than he is worth. 1.6 mil would be about the top for him. Curious how you came up with that number.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 02:36 PM) LD% is crazy volatile though, which is a big part of the reason that BABIP is volatile. His career HR/FB is 3% lower, which I think is definitely significant especially when you consider that the 21.1% had to have brought that up quite a bit. Also, it's easier to believe in HR/FB jumps if a guy has made a change to try to swing for the fences, but Flowers' actually had a higher-than-normal GB% too, which means the change in rate is extra strange. His career HR/FB if you strip out 2014 is 16.3%, which would have given him 12 homers instead of 15 last year. Somewhat significant but not very. ZiPS has him hitting 13 next year in about 100 fewer PA's. ZiPS also has him at a nearly identical wOBA as 2014 - .310 compared to .308. His season was really strange. The BABIP is driven up by all the 48-hoppers through the infield early on. Then he hit that horrible slump, and then he put on a power show in the second half. Look at his ISO by half - .086, .273. Or GB/FB by half - 2.27, 1.03. A lot of that fluctuation is SSS, but how do you know he didn't make a change? Put it all together and I don't think a 90-95 wRC+ is unreasonable to expect. I'd be surprised if it's lower.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 11:49 AM) I believe so. I struggled catching up to 80 MPH heat in high school and had virtually no chance against bad breaking balls. That was 10 years ago. Since then, I've slowed down and put on 60 pounds due to eating/drinking, so I've slowed up quite a bit too. Maybe I'd do better than 3 for 600, but it wouldn't be pretty. How are you getting 600 plate appearances with those numbers?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 12:45 PM) Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo 1h1 hour ago #SFGiants have reached a one-year deal with Norichika Aoki: http://sbnation.com/e/7321772 Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2h2 hours ago Confirming: Aoki to #SFGiants, one year, $4.7M, including buyout on club option. First reported: @JohnSheaHey and @JonHeymanCBS. Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 2h2 hours ago Phoenix, AZ aoki gets $4.7M guarantee. $4M salary for 2015, plus 700K buyout on 2016 option. can make 12.5M max Holy hell what a steal.

QUOTE (Armchair Hahn @ Jan 16, 2015 -> 11:53 AM) Johan Santana was in his prime during all of Buehrle's prime years....had a far better peak, but fell off faster...any opinions on if he's a HOFer? He isn't.

Huge news, guys. This belongs in the important topics. QUOTE (@bnicholsonsmith @ Jan 15, 2015 -> 04:13 PM) Source: #WhiteSox, Javy Guerra avoid arb. $937,500 in 2015

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 15, 2015 -> 12:33 PM) Stewart is a douchebag. He's trying to take shots at someone and it's very obvious. You're probably just not a true baseball fan.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 15, 2015 -> 12:52 PM) Regardless of how much longer he pitches, I feel comfortable predicting that he won't get as many votes as he deserves and I will get mad. Like, to clarify, he should get at least many votes as ****ing Nomar Garciaparra or I will be personally insulted.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 15, 2015 -> 12:35 PM) Tom Glavine also won the Cy Young award twice, twice finished 2nd, and twice finished 3rd. That's 6 seasons where he was considered by the voters to be one of the 3 best pitchers in the league. Buehrle's highest finish was 5th in 2005. That's a significant difference. Personally though, I think Buehrle does merit some consideration for the Hall of Fame. He's currently 83rd all time in fWAR for pitchers at 51.8. A 2.5 fWAR season puts him at 72nd all time, ahead of guys like Carl Hubbell, Tommy Bridges, and Javier Vazquez (yes), while a 3 fWAR season moves him ahead of Billy Pierce and Luis Tiant for 70th all time. Using ERA as our basis for WAR (bWAR or RA9-WAR), he's currently 86th at 59.2, 0.1 behind CC Sabathia. A 3 bWAR season puts him at 62.2, tied with Frank Tanana and just behind Andy Pettitte. He's not going to win a major pitching award at this point, but he'll get 200 wins and it's certainly possible that, if he pitched another 3-4 years, he could conceivably end up around the 60 fWAR area and the 65 bWAR area, and I think, to some extent, that diminishes his ability to hold runners on base and prevent runners from stealing as well as his fielding prowess. Not sure if I think he is a Hall of Famer or not, but his career isn't over. I think he'll remain on the ballot for a few years but will ultimately fall short. Perhaps I'm wrong. RA9-WAR is the way to go when you're talking HoF cases. If a guy's FIP doesn't equal his ERA after 3000 innings then the guy is doing something outside FIP's boundaries. Buehrle's run of 200-inning seasons is something that is unique today and will probably not happen again, but the lack of a dominant peak will hurt him. Regardless of how much longer he pitches, I feel comfortable predicting that he won't get as many votes as he deserves and I will get mad.

Evolve beta opens today. Holy **** I'm excited for this game.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Jan 14, 2015 -> 10:53 PM) The only move I'd want that would add to payroll at all is a multiyear extension for Eaton. He does what he does and he does it very well, buy out his arb years and a couple years of FA. The other move I'd like, which wouldn't add much payroll at all, is a Dayan Viciedo + for Jackie Bradley Jr. A bench of: C- Kotteras/Brantly/Nieto/whatever INF- Tyler Saladino UTIL- Emilio Bonifacio 4OF- Jackie Bradley Jr Really seems perfect to me, but with RH Dayan Viciedo soaking up a spot on the bench it keeps Saladino from the big league club (you need 1 LH bat off the bench that isn't a C). The options for defensive substitutions and pinch running with that bench are almost bottomless. Keep in mind that LaRoche will be on the bench any time we face a lefty, so that gives a lot more power to the bench than meets the eye. I think an Eaton extension would be premature. We still have him for four more years regardless; let him prove his skills - and more importantly his health - for one more year.

QUOTE (knightni @ Jan 15, 2015 -> 06:45 AM) He dove caught the ball that ended the blackout game too. Yeah, I was wrong. Sorry. That's actually the best thing he ever did.

The best thing Brian Anderson did as a Sox was be near a microphone for Pods' walkoff.

Belisario was unlucky. He did not pitch like a guy with a 5.56 ERA. OPS+ of 109, ERA- of 141. His blowups were so visible and he's probably a headache so a non-tender made sense. Viciedo was also unlucky. 2014 Viciedo with average ball-in-play luck looks a lot like 2013 Viciedo, who is still a bad player. And he still has the look of a guy who just isn't learning to get better.