shysocks

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 11:28 AM) I'm team Scherzer. Don't mind them overpaying on one guy when you have Sale and Q locked up cheap, Rodon eventually at minimum for a few years as well as the core position players up that are cheap now. In theory this makes sense, but the best free agent pitcher of any offseason gets the kind of titanic overpay that makes you say "That team will regret this" even as it's happening.

QUOTE (beautox @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 09:57 AM) I don't get the shields love across the board and how he fits into this teams short and long term goals. He is going to be 33 at the start of '15 and is going to command at least a 4 year deal if not something closer to 5-6 + at least 1 option and buy out and will cost us our second round pick and the money assigned to that pool. Why not go after Maeda who is younger, won't cost as much and fits the sox window across the board. I wouldn't say there's Shields love across the board. Plenty of people here have gone on record as wanting to stay away from him. You're right, he'd be declining as the team got more competitive.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 09:47 AM) That that pitching staff is ugly behind Quintana. Crazy how quickly something can go from a strength to a weakness. That's why I've advocated making the rotation the highest priority. There's room in there for any type of signing, no worries guys! I understand the John Danks financials but you could replace Noesi and I wouldn't shed any tears. QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 09:48 AM) I prefer the Oliver projections so I don't have to fool around with thinking about playing time. In my mind, I want to think about "what will this player do compared to that one if they both play full time?" They do have Steamer600 easily accessible from there, which puts all hitters at 600 plate appearances and starting pitchers and relievers at 200/65 innings. That would make Semien our second highest WAR guy.

inb4 "What are Cleveland's Steamer projections?"

The Steamer Projections for 2015 showed up on Fangraphs a couple days ago. I'm linking to Sox hitters and pitchers. There's also a little more detail available on each player's page, ie K/BB rates and stuff. These aren't to be taken too seriously, especially because the offseason hasn't even begun and teams will look much different than they do now. But it's fun to look at and might ignite some discussion. A few things that jump out to me: -Abreu at .283/.354/.530/.885 with 35 HR, which would be a modest step back from this season. Somewhat disappointing until you realize that these projections rarely predict outstanding performances and he's pegged for the 9th highest OPS and wOBA in baseball (Miguel Cabrera is 1st). -It likes Semien quite a bit, giving him 1.5 WAR in only 92 games with a 10.1 BB% and 18.6 K% that stacks up against the numbers he's put up in the minors. That type of year from him would be extremely satisfying. -Avisail slated for a .316 OBP. If I had to guess, I would put it higher, more like .330. -Eaton projected to roughly repeat this season. -Again, these are out way early, but if Andy Wilkins gets 400 PA's, the Sox offseason will not have gone well... -Four different guys will have one plate appearance, including Paul Konerko, and hit between .208 and .246. Look forward to that. -Sale is projected for the third-highest WAR among all pitchers. A projected 3.00 ERA would be a bummer in reality, but it is the fourth-lowest for starting pitchers (Kershaw, Felix, Jose Fernandez). -No pitcher is projected for more than 202 innings. This is by design. Sale and Quintana both sit at 192, but that's the only thing the system likes about Q. A 3.93 ERA for him, which is higher than any he has ever put up in the majors, seems questionable. I think HR regression is mostly responsible. -This pitching staff would combine for 8.2 WAR, which would have been 28th in the majors this season. -Felipe Paulino will pitch one inning, give up one earned run, and somehow parlay that into a 5.25 ERA. Look forward to that.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 9, 2014 -> 08:33 AM) The Royals led baseball is stolen bases. The other 3 teams standing were the bottom 3 in that department. Love this stat.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Oct 8, 2014 -> 08:05 PM) Instead of making this thread again, I'm bumping it so we can stop clogging other threads. Jose Quintana was the ninth best pitcher in baseball. Stop saying we should trade him. Repeated and bolded because STOP IT PEOPLE.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 8, 2014 -> 08:53 AM) Except for arguably having the two best franchises in baseball over the last 5 years or so... ...that everybody is sick of...

This ALCS is approximately 800% more entertaining than the NLCS.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 7, 2014 -> 09:32 AM) I also do not understand why people annually (or bi-annually, or every single day, or whatever) bring up trading Jose Quintana. It just does not make sense. I think it comes from some kind of "SELL HIGH" mentality. Except if a team always sold high on everybody, it would suck forever. We might as well trade Sale, like you said. And Abreu, while we're at it.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Oct 6, 2014 -> 08:41 AM) The boston herald is reporting the same. They say Boston is going after Sale and Stanton this offseason. Unless you're reading something different than what I am, I would not characterize that as "reporting." It's a column that advocates for the Red Sox to go after Sale, and also every other player in MLB. Not sure where these Red Sox people are getting the idea that Sale is remotely available.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 01:45 AM) I still think the Sabes people and all "modern" baseball tacticians would say that would NEVER work. This literally sounds like an example of a straw man argument they'd teach in a college debate class.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2014 -> 11:52 AM) Confidence has very little to do with it. Victor Martinez being less than super human or even not there next year, Miguel Cabrera being a year older, and perhaps most importantly Scherzer being gone are their worries for next year. On top of that, Nathan and Hunter are free agents and are quite old. Since nobody corrected this: Nathan is under contract for $10M next year. Doesn't really change the point of what you said, maybe even amplifies it.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 5, 2014 -> 10:13 AM) Is Williams an idiot or did he do what he should have done yanking Zimmerman after the walk and 100 pitches? I thought it was a mistake at the time. He hadn't allowed a baserunner since the third inning and it's not like he was up at 120 pitches or anything. He was cruising and his leash should have been a little longer.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 3, 2014 -> 02:31 PM) Oh, for a three run bomb right here! Come on Hardy! Does a three-run double count? Tigers trail 7-6. lololololol

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 3, 2014 -> 02:26 PM) 2 perfect innings for Sanchez. Joba in for the 8th Joba out 1 HBP, 2 hits, and one run later.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 04:55 PM) 2014 - 4.30 team ERA, 13th out of 15 2013 - 3.98 team ERA, 9th out of 15 2012 - 4.08 team ERA, 8th out of 14 2011 - 4.10 team ERA, 8th out of 14 2010 - 4.09 team ERA, 8th out of 14 2009 - 4.14 team ERA, 2nd out of 14 2008 - 4.06 team ERA, 6th out of 14 2007 - 4.77 team ERA, 12th out of 14 2006 - 4.61 team ERA, 10th out of 14 2005 - 3.61 team ERA, 1st out of 14 2004 - 4.91 team ERA, 11th out of 14 2003 - 4.17 team ERA, 4th out of 14 I didn't note 2002 as Nardi was the coach for half a year there and Cooper was cleaning up a mess. On that list, I see 2 teams that had great pitching, 2 teams that had above average pitching, 4 teams that were pretty mediocre, and 2 teams that were bad, and 2 teams that were very bad. That's a fairly stable bell curve Cooper has working right now. You know very well that ERA isn't the right stat for this, as Balta hashed out, but I'll use it anyway. Aggregate, since 2003 ERA: 4.24 (5th in AL) FIP: 4.20 (t-5) xFIP: 4.17 (2) SIERA: 4.10 (4) WAR: 240.0 (2) RA9WAR: 230.1 (2) K-BB%: 10.1% (4) For the offense R: 8895 (8) AVG: .260 (11) OBP: .325 (12) SLG: .423 (6) OPS: .748 (8) wOBA: .326 (8) wRC+: 96 (12) WAR: 170.3 (12) I don't think I'm cherry picking stats that help my case, and I think this speaks for itself. Reiterating: Players ultimately decide the games, and for 12 years our pitching has decided to be very good. Cooper gets some credit for that.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 10:10 PM) So...How do the Sox win 73? Bullpen cost 20 games? Bad luck.? Umps fault? If we just hadn't traded elite Addison Reed we'd have made the playoffs? LOL. Sure the Sox could contend. Major upgrades at DH, LF, Bullpen and at 2 starter upgrades are needed (and perhaps 3b), but if they can take care of all or most of that, they could contend. But yes, the Sox have defensive issues (can anyone seriously contend otherwise?) and power issues (middle of the pack statistically right now WHILE playing in a major home run hitters park). Could this be cured in 6 months? Sure Is it close? No. The main culprits: a bad bullpen, a rotation full of holes, and an outfield that was banged up and unproductive. The good news: As I try to explain on a weekly basis, a bad bullpen can be one of the quickest things to turn around, due simply to randomness if nothing else. Sign one good starting pitcher who stays healthy instead of giving 34 starts to the Carroll/Rienzo/Paulino hydra. Get an outfielder who isn't Dayan Viciedo. Use the rotating DH plan. It isn't that difficult to imagine the Sox competing next year because a lot of the guys who cost us games will be gone.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 3, 2014 -> 07:19 AM) Did you guys just start reading my posts yesterday? I've been on the Royals-hate bandwagon for years now. I'm not gonna stop just because they suddenly give the media a funny feeling down below. Moustakas is just an ugly Gordon Beckham, just got lucky to get the barrel of the bat on one last night. But they have great outfield defense. Their outfield had a .991 fielding % this year, which was 3rd in the AL. The TBS broadcast told me so!

Whatever it is - scouting, drafting, training, pure luck - Sox pitching has been near the top of the league in the last 12 years, while the hitting just has not. I'd say Cooper has a good amount to do with that. That's a 12-year sample.

I agree with the premise that coaches don't mean as much as fans like to think. However, if you wanted to try and come up with a list of hitters that have maximized their talent for the Sox in the last 12 years that equals the length of the same list of pitchers - that would be an impossible exercise. While it is ultimately up to the players to get the job done on the field, Cooper gets the benefit of the doubt from fans for the simple fact that that list is staggering.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 11:56 AM) I have no idea what thread to put this in but I need some help from you guys. Does anyone know a photographer in the Chicago area? Someone who does Weddings, Senior pictures, engagement pictures, that sort of thing. They don't need to be some professional but someone that has experience and has proven work. Any suggestions will be greatly appreciated. Timothy Whaley & Associates did my wedding and they were great. Specifically, our photographer was a guy named Bill Jaeger and he was really good, did everything we asked of him, and knew where the line was between good art and the corny, staged-looking photos that you often see photographers forcing wedding parties to do. This was a few years ago, so Bill might not be there anymore but I'm sure the company has plenty of capable people. Might be slightly on the expensive side.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 09:28 AM) I think some people on this board are really over-valuing draft picks. 1st rounders are obviously important, but losing 2nd & 3rd round picks should never sway you from adding an impact player, at least if you think you're team is close to being competitive. And I get you also lose their bonus allotment, but when you're trying to add outside talent and the trade-off is losing a pick/bonus or trading away partially developed prospects, I'm going to sacrifice the unknown commodity first every single time. Well said, but I think the bold is the sticking point. Some people would argue that trying to propel a 73-win team out of mediocrity isn't worth giving up the picks. I happen to disagree and think the Sox can be competitive with the right offseason, but it's a valid viewpoint.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 2, 2014 -> 07:44 AM) OK, here's the situation: Each league gets a 25-man roster, selected only from non-playoff teams, for a 7-game series. Build your rosters and then decide who wins. I will do an AL roster. Someone else can do an NL roster and then the rest can suggest improvements. SP: Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel RP-L: Jake McGee, Charlie Furbush, Aaron Loup RP-R: David Robertson, Delin Betances, Brad Boxgerger, Carlos Carrasco C: Yan Gomes, Kurt Suzuki 1B/DH: Jose Abreu, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion 2B: Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve SS: Alexei Ramirez, Jose Reyes 3B: Adrian Beltre OF: Danny Santana, Jose Bautista, Michael Brantley, Adam Eaton Can we decide home field advantage in the World Series this way? That way the "Random Guy on the Astros Affected the Most Important Games of the Season!" complaints can be amplified. I'd probably take Quintana over Keuchel, because homer, and because his lower IP/start isn't a problem in a short series. Can I sneak in Carlos Santana as a Catcher instead of Suzuki? He started 10 games there this year so he can probably take a couple in a series and I'd rather have his power. I would take Zobrist for his versatility and probably replace Jose Reyes. With Eaton, Santana, Brantley, and Altuve, this roster has enough speed and Zobrist is so valuable off the bench. Otherwise I like it.