shysocks

PagesTalk

https://twitter.com/pkollar/status/687472024873140224

Unfair to compare this to an open market contract for Cespedes/et al. 5/$50 seems great, but don't forget he was still an arb guy before this deal, so it isn't as much of a discount as it seems once you factor that in. MLBTR put his arb projection at $5.9 for 2016. Assuming raises to $9 and $12 in 2017 and 2018 (total stabs in the dark, I admit), that would make this more like a $2/23 extension. Which is still nice.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 10:15 AM) D'oh. Haha, it's okay, we've all been there. Don't like the Hawk extension. We're gonna get whiplash.

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 12s12 seconds ago Also, Hawk Harrelson, who does all road games and three at home, receives a multi-year extension. #WhiteSox

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 09:29 AM) So I guess my beef is calling it luck. Get a team full of high-contact, high AVG hitters and it's no longer luck, as you've basically put a hedge in place to reduce the randomness of sequencing. This is one of the flaws with linear weights, as it completely ignores context when in reality it's incredibly important. You can expect this team to score more runs than other teams, but I'll argue they're no less dependent on sequencing. They can have 15 hits a game, but even though they're all good hitters, we still have no idea how they'll string those hits together. And how they do it will not be consistent from game to game and season to season. I don't think it's an effort to ignore context, as obviously context incredibly important. I think it's just an attempt to have a measurement free of it. Realized I didn't address the "calling it luck" part, which I can understand. I agree there is more to a big inning than just luck. The "luck" label is there to address the uncertainty of whether you can repeat it over and over.

QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 09:13 AM) Have not read this entire thread or the article itself, but is there any hidden meaning behind this statement? Sound like it could be a veiled indictment of Hawk's style. I can see how "side stories" would read like "always talking about Yaz," but I think he's just talking about Benetti's side stories - born with cerebral palsy, growing up a Sox fan, etc.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 06:34 PM) How do you measure cluster luck? Every possible result of a plate appearance has a number of runs it creates based on historical data. This table is dated I'm sure, but it shows that a homer adds an linear weighted average of 1.409 runs, a triple 1.063 runs, etc. Add up all a team's outcomes in a season and you can find how many runs it "should have" scored. If they scored more than that, they had good cluster luck. The same thing can be done on the pitching side. A team could put up a single, two walks, and a homer in an inning, but depending on the sequencing they could end up with between one and four runs. It could have only nine hits in a game, all doubles, and could get anywhere from zero to nine runs from them. Linear weights removes the context and just gives each outcome a number. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 06:34 PM) And wouldn't a team that strikes out infrequently be more likely to string hits together frequently? I would think a team that strikes out less should have a higher batting average, so yeah.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 13, 2016 -> 08:17 AM) This is an excellent move. I'm so glad they didn't just throw an ex player up there. Hearing a young, professional broadcaster will be a breath of fresh air. I grew up with Hawk just like everyone else but it's been time for a new voice and style. This exactly.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 04:15 PM) So he time Anderson performs the same in one full season are you going to give him another chance or ready to dump him. If Anderson is awful at everything after 1100 plate appearances, like Avi, then I'll be perfectly ready to dump him.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 03:17 PM) And it's not just that the tools aren't above average, they're mostly grading out as awful This exactly. I'm tired of the "only one full season" line. Fine, but he hasn't shown anything. We have no reason to believe he'll ever be a good baseball player, other than he was about an 80th-ranked prospect at one point. And those guys wash out. All. The. Time. He needs to show that he is good at something, because so far he hasn't shown anything. Nothing. Less than nothing. I hope if I were given 600 plate appearances last year and performed as you might expect I would, nobody here would be like, "Yeah, but he hasn't really been given much of a chance..." If Avi has a role next year it will be a very bad thing.

^ Closest thing to a tantrum in this thread.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 11:12 AM) I feel like 2/3 of the teams are between 75 and 82 wins. Maybe that's how it actually turns our or I'm wrong,. You're right, the projections tend to be very moderate. Example: even though you'll usually end up with a 100-win team, it's hard to project anybody doing it as the most likely outcome. They're a good way to gauge where teams are at, but there are enough wild misses every single year that they should not be taken too seriously.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 10:11 AM) Just curious, where did they have us last year? Don't remember exactly but I think most systems had us between 76 and 80 wins.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 12, 2016 -> 10:04 AM) Curious how much further one of the OF'ers would take them. My guess is to about 84-78.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jan 7, 2016 -> 05:37 PM) Well, yeah. Players who suck, or have no power, get a ton of strikes thrown their way. Gordon Beckham has seen 52.5% of his career pitches thrown in the strike zone. Over the past 5 seasons, only Marco Scutaro's 2013 season saw a player with a higher % in a qualified season. On the other side of that, as in, the least amount of strikes thrown a player in a season since 2011 include Josh Hamilton's 2012, Fielder's 2011, Stanton's 2013, Harper's 2015, and a few Pablo Sandoval seasons for some reason. Sandoval's a big time hacker so you might as well not throw him anything to hit.

Don't think price matters, I imagine this takes them off the list.

It does point to their gains being a 1-time thing though. We won't see a clearout of the voting body like that every year.

Chicago White Sox ‏@whitesox 1m1 minute ago #WhiteSox have claimed outfielder Daniel Fields off waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Added to 40 man. *obligatory, never not hilarious "World Series here we come!" comment after minor move*

Started pulling the ball a lot more, which, speaking of Avi, is exactly what he needs to do if he's ever gonna hit with any power. Martinez Pull% by year: 32.5 34.6 36.9 44.9 *Breakout 2014 41.1 For Avi: 34.8 37.7 *Highest ISO of any single-stop sample in career longer than 8 games 36.1

A 1-year deal for Upton would be a no-brainer.

Regardless, what a stupid way for this to leak.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 02:57 PM) Just tried it and I got the denied access page for Raines, Piazza and Griffey but not for Bagwell. Ooh, the plot thickens. Probably just weren't done creating the pages.

https://twitter.com/williamnyy23/status/684832975725395970 If you don't wanna click, basically the guy took screenshots of the pages on the HoF website. For Raines and Bagwell they did not exist, and the pages for Piazza and Griffey deny access to the user. Think this pretty well clues us in.

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jan 6, 2016 -> 09:40 AM) Sources: Gordon salary in 1st yr of four-yr, $72M deal is lower, giving #Royals chance to make other moves. Deal also includes deferrals. Signals KC's desire to go "all in" one more time, as this would only decrease the likelihood of signing those pending free agents.