Dominikk85

Vaughn was only hitting for a 97 wrc+ in August (so far only 1 ab in September so it doesn't really count yet). His strikeout to walk rate was still better than in Chicago (14/8 vs around 20/5 or so) but power has really cratered to a .125 iso in August which is not only way lower than what he did in July (365 iso) but also lower than what he did in Chicago. Maybe it actually was more of a hot streak rather than a real change.

It still might be just a short hot streak that comes down but it seems the brewers made some changes to him. https://x.com/enosarris/status/1951364504555757941?t=1Fud_4OpHeWM0U7Gq3c-bA&s=19

It is still a small sample that could regress but in 30 PAs he is hitting 391/500/739 with 20% walks and 10% Ks. Of course that could regress very quickly but in that sample his chase rate is down to 22% from 36% with the sox (statcast version) and his pull rate is up to 43% from 38%. I wonder if the brewers hitting crew is unlocking something the white Sox staff couldn't. The real test of course will be the following weeks with hoskins and bauers both being out vaughn will need to play every day meaning he will be exposed to tough righties which could pull him down. Still a trade probably was a good thing, it was not going to happen with the sox and even if he does succeed that doesn't make the trade wrong.

I like the pitcher pick here using the information there was out during draft time. Yes, hitters are "safer" generally but this was a quite weak year for college hitters. Everyone but bazzana had some question marks -condon: whiff -wetherholt: injury -cags: chase Considering how the sox did succeed with similar pitchers in the past and how they even struggled to make "safe" college hitters work (see vaughn and madrigal) I can see why the sox didn't want to take a rather raw huge power guy who has some chase issues. How confident can you be that the sox develope such a hitter properly?

His production has been quite bad but the underlying numbers don't look bad. He is running a career low chase rate. I don't expect this to hold up completely but it is a good sign nonetheless. His barrel rate is a 12.4% which is above his career average as is his hard hit rate. His xwoba is .326 vs a .271 actual wOBA. He is of course striking out a lot but that always was and will be part of his package, the biggest issue is that he has run a .230 babip which shouldn't be the case with his hard hit rate. The question is whether a team is willing to pay at least like 80 cents on the dollar based on his advanced metrics.

I think it is a combination out of several factors: -his plate discipline isn't as good as it looked in college. He had huge walk rates in college but if you are that dangerous you will get walked a lot unless you swing at absolute everything ala javy baez -he does have solid raw power but not huge all fields pop. To hit homers he needs to pull the ball at good angles. He doesn't pull the ball enough in the air and he isn't really willing to learn here and embrace modern data. Eno sarris once asked him about pulling more fly balls and vaughn basically told him he doesn't care about that nerd stuff. -sox rushed him and didn't provide good player dev and vaughn also isn't willing to seek outside help like driveline However this year there actually seems to be some kind of good change. His pull rate is well up to 48% and his pulled fb or ld percentage is up from 14 to 20% this season compared to last. A xwoba and barrel rate is also way up. K rate is also up to be fair but in the long run it should be worth the trade off. The results have been terrible (7 wrc+) but it also was like a 100 babip. If he can maintain a 14% barrel rate it should easily be a career best. A good org would encourage him to keep doing what he does and that results will eventually come if he keeps doing it but it is the sox and I would fear that coaches tell him "your production is bad, try to hit line drives at the second basemans knees and stop that pull sh*t":)

I like some of the underlying data early on. Chase rate: 2024: 33.8% (27th) 2025: 31.2% (15th) Pull% 2024: 38.1% (29) 2025: 42.4% (10) This is a sign of slight improvement in the approach, the free swing opposite field approach of the last 5-6 years really isn't the way to go unless you have several elite hit tool guys which they have not. Still of course the overall product on the field isn't good yet, especially since some of the lowest chase rate guys aren't really players with future impact or trade value (Mason, thaiss, tauchman) but it is a good sign they are trying stuff.

Canaria was a good prospect but he just strikes out a ton and has done so for most of his minor league career. He does have some pop and hits at high launch angles but really not doesn't hit hard enough to justify a 30+% k rate.

It is buying out some years though and there is quite some injury risk. It could easily turn into a big bargain if crochet holds up but 170 m is serious money, that is not likely that Scott kingery extension back then where he got 20 m and you say who cares if he busts. It basically is an insurance for crochet

I think given what he started with he had a decent start. Yeah the team is bad but at least he created a top 5 farm system again. Of course that was aided by some good contracts to trade that he inherited from the previous regime and a top 5 farm system is no guarantee as evidenced by the last rebuild when they also had a top 3-5 farm system but so far it at least is a start. Obviously now he has to show that development and health of the upcoming players is better than last time. We will see in 1-2 Years.

Eno sarris said in a podcast that he showed vaughn a graph that his production was closely correlated to his pull rate, ie. He was doing better in phases where he pulled the ball more. He said vaughn wasn't interested in that and didn't seem to be very into analytics at all.

Yes. Even if a breakout is unlikely it still makes sense to try because if he sucks again all you have lost is 6 mill that you wouldn't have invested in the roster elsewhere anyway.

First basemen are a bit overpaid in arbitration because arb is more about traditional numbers like HR and RBI and less about stuff like OBP or even WAR and doesn't consider positional adjustment a lot (if any). Vaughn was bad the last years but he still hit around 20 bombs with 70-80 RBI. Of course that came with low OBP and no defensive and positional value and thus close to replacement level but for arb 20 bombs and RBIs in the 70s don't Look so terrible. That makes first basemen kinda Tricky. They are paid rather high in arbitration but rather low in free agency unless they are really good (like several seasons at 130-140 wRC+ or better). But that "mid" first baseman who maybe has a 105-115 wrc+ and a little over 1 war is really not a sought after asset, that tends to be a guy you use in pre arb and arb1 when he is cheap and try to offload in arb 2 and 3 because those guys get good arb money due to HR and RBI numbers. If vaughn wasn't a third overall pick he probably would have been non tendered, especially by a contender that needs to save money to stay under the luxury tax but the sox have almost no payroll and no incentive to invest on the big league team so they can just as well pay him and hope that he has a breakout and can be flipped for something at the deadline. I don't think he will be great but I could see him hit 265/320/450 with 25 homers and 80 RBI and then you maybe get something (not a top prospect but maybe an interesting minor league reliever or a lower level lotto ticket) for him.

Including 2025 he has made a guaranteed 47 mil, he can afford to bet on himself.

I started this thread before the deadline. It didn't happen at the deadline and I don't think it is quite the best system but the system does rank pretty high now. Top 100 prospects on fangraphs 16 c. montgomery 23 Schultz 37 Hagen Smith 40 quero 42 teel 61 Bryan ramos 66 Jairo inciarte Braden montgomery is not ranked top100 but he is close. That is a pretty good state and a lot of those guys are already pretty close to the majors. That is no guarantee there will be success but it is a good starting point. Also Robert hasn't been traded yet. His value is at a low now but maybe someone is willing to pay 80 cents on the dollar or you keep him till the deadline and hope for a bounce back so he can add another 1-2 top100 guys