Dominikk85

Fangraphs has Collins as the 1 first base prospect, they basically decided themselves he is not a catcher.

The Strike Zone Advantage doesn't really exist for short hitters. They get helped in the bottom but hurt up https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-jose-altuve-strike-zone/ Generally most great hitters tend to be medium size like 6 to 6"3. Above 6"3 it helps power but I think it hurts contact. The really huge power guys are tall but they also whiff a lot (judge, stanton)

But the 60 is raw power not game power. Most have higher game power than raw power. Examples (fangraphs) Vlad jr 80 raw, 70 power Eloy 80 raw, 70 game Tatis 70 raw, 60 game In most cases 60 raw means 55 or lower game power but Vaughns bat is so good that he could be a rare case were game power and raw match. Don't get me wrong, 60 raw isn't bad it is just not impressive compared to other 1b prospects. For example fangraphs has 70 on Zack Collins raw, so do they have on Peter alonso and josh Naylor. Basically all top 50 rated 1b prospects have 70 or higher raw. Don't get me wrong I love the hit tool but he definitely is an unusual top 1b prospect who tend to be taller and with more raw power. Now if he does become a 290 hitter with 25-30 homers that would basically be Jose abreu and I would be fine with that at 3 but I could also see why one would like more upside.

60 means 23-27 Homers on average. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/ Most 1b drafted in the top10 will have 70+ power. But of course Vaughn projects also for like a 70 bat which is not that common.

Asked McDaniel from fg about vaughns future and current raw power. Says both is a 60 which is not spectacular for a 1b but he has a good chance to get to 60 game power which is good.

No. There was never a college first baseman switching to third in pro ball. In fact most college 3b can't play third in the majors. Most college 1B did play other positions in HS. He is a solid glove 1B which is fine.

I would prefer rutschmann too but if you don't get him vaughn has a very high floor. He likely isn't going to be a 5+ war player but he is very likely at least an average everyday 1b with a good chance for more. Abreu with a better glove is basically a 4.5 win player (using the average abreu season) so that is a very decent ceiling.

He is a first baseman and he is also short (5"11) and right handed but he can really hit. Not huge raw power but enough to hit 25-30 bombs. I think he would be a slight stretch at 3 but his ceiling basically is jose abreu with a better glove which is intriguing.

I think kiley mc daniel said he thinks white sox are about middle of the pack now. Not on par with Houston, rays or dodgers but not super old school either. They certainly do believe in analytics now.

Yes. They bumb down pitching prospects half a grade now due to risk but there are still plenty on the top100 and if there is a super prospect like strasburg he still will get a 70fv.

Do you think carter Stewart could fall to the sox second pick? I wouldn't go Stewart at 3 because of the arm risk but if you can spin a deal with the third pick maybe you can maybe get Stewart on an overslot deal. In the second round he definitely would be worth the risk but not sure he falls that far. If he falls past 15 the chance is good he falls into the overslot second pick range.

Yes, college is much more generous about defense. Almost no college players play up a position in pro ball and in fact many college 3b move to first. He is a first baseman. I would watch him very closely this year against the good starters. To draft him 3rd overall you at least have to project the bat as a 70 which is a big thing. But if he continues to hit 400 with 20 bombs and not much worse against top starters I would be open to take him. I would be careful though if he batted 500 against weak starters and 290 against the good ones.

I definitely can see him succeeding but he is a college first baseman and even for a college 1b drafted that high his profile is not really standard, you would a tall projectable athlete like hosmer there. Now I'm not saying he can't succeed but that is a lot of betting on his polish when facing better pitching with wood. Watch him closely and especially how he does against weekend starters of good teams and not just overall stat line.

I'm not sure I love a 5"11 first baseman at 3rd overall. Not totally against it but the typical elite first baseman is 6"2 plus. Now he did perform in both power and average and his swing doesn't look bad But I'm not sure it is elite batspeed and at 5"11, 210 he is really physically maxed out. Also right handed hitting first baseman which some don't like. I agree he could be an elite hitter and then I don't care he is a 5"11 first but if the power backs up a little with wood which sounds reasonable given his maxed out frame and his good but not huge raw power 3rd might be a slight reach. Watch his final season closely, if he hits even better than last year I might take a shot but if he backs up only a little I might prefer a higher upside player. Question is if he really is a 70/70 hitter or more of a 60 hit/60 power which is still great but not at 3 for his position.

It is partially true, however starting pitchers on average are the highest draft picks out of all players. In short: any pitcher can fail but it is rare that a non prospect becomes a good starter, late round pitching successes are usually relievers. Pitcher attrition is real and hitting prospects are safer but the market knows that which is why prices of starting pitching has exploded while prices of corner bats have dropped. Yeah it sucks to have your SP prospect hurt but it sucks more to have a 250M free agent ace hurt. The idea to concentrate on developing hitters is nice but only if you can pay 80M per year on your rotation.

Tons of injuries too.

Longenhagen has doubts wether Witt will hit ( no pun inteded). He said plus fielder with good power but has shown contact trouble against better fastballs missing some fastballs over the plate and might ultimately be a 240 hitter. If that is true I would like the Orioles who have hired a relative of witt to overdraft him. I'm not against HS hitters but I don't like getting a HS guy with question marks about the hit tool. I'm not ruling him out but HS competition is very weak and how he does against the average 76 mph HS starter doesn't tell much, watch very closely how he does against 90+ in the big showcases. IF he hits 450 in HS but shifts a ton in showcases I would stay away.

I think the obp will be similar to Eckstein but madrigal will have more power. Eckstein averaged like 6 homers a year. Madrigal has shown little power but most scouts still think he will grow into 10-15 homer power. Eckstein was a 350/350 hitter and I think madrigal will be more like 350/420 (opb/slg)

The question is whether he really got better or is just seeing more September call up dickshots. Moncada was always pretty decent at making contact near the middle of the plate, he simply couldn't touch anything that was near any of the zone edges. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=3 Here it looks like it indeed got a little better. Still big hole down but more coverage on the inside from the left side. Zone looks a little bigger. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=2018-09-01&se=2018-09-22&type=3&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all&data=

Schwarber is a 35+ homer guy though. 30% Ks can work if you have a good walk rate (which moncada has) and plus power (which he has hinted at but not shown consistently). If moncada could become a 35+ homer hitter with 12% walks and a 250 BA he is essentially adam dunn (not the washed up one that played for the sox) which would be fine.

I prefer davidson slightly because he has improved his plate discipline. Both whiff a lot and have power but MD takes walks. Palka is more like 2017 MD before the plate discipline spike. Now palka has shown a little more power but unless he has a similar approach adjustment like MD I don't buy in.

I think fangraphs changed their rating a little overall in that they now give all pitchers a slight risk tax for being a pitcher and they now follow a bit more the cubs model of "building through hitting" simply because hitters flame out less often due to injuries. They just have 4 pitchers in the top20 now, it is basically now every pitcher gets half a grade discount to their FV just for being a pitcher. Statistically this is probably the right thing to do because so many pitchers get hurt.

It is a good sign but you have to consider it is shitty September pitching. Still better but we need to see if he can sustain this

As a hitting coach in amateur ball here is what I would do (of course the real hitting coaches should know better than me but I will give my opinion anyway): Work on one of the weaknesses during the winter. You cant correct everything at once and even some great hitters have one bad edge so I would work hard on pitches either up or down all winter. The middle he can handle anyway and if he than also can handle one of the other boundaries this leaves less room for the pitchers to attack him. Ideally he should master at least two of the 4 edges (down-in, down-away, up-in, up-away). So for example he could work all winter on inside pitches and low pitches, middle he can handle anyway. If he can master this he would be much more dangerous. What makes it more complicated is that he is a switch hitter, that is two swings to maintain. I'm not a fan of bad switch hitters. If you are good like lindor that is great but if you have severe holes to stuff that becomes much harder when switch hitting. Maybe it even could be a consideration to give up on his righty swing at some point but for now that is probably not an option.

No he doesn't swing at them because he is a smart guy and knows he can't hit them. His heat map when he swings is also down the pipe. This is actually a good thing because heat and swing map should match somewhat but it becomes a problem once pitchers realize what you are looking for. He simply needs to cover more of the zone. Especially low in the zone his contact rate is super low while in the middle it is ok