Dominikk85

La Roche came off a 127 wrc+ season with a 277 average and 26 homers. He was old but there was reason to believe he could have been like an average first baseman for another year. Nobody could have foreseen that he tanked that much. It was some risk but for the money it was an ok gamble at the time.

I agree. Fangraphs has him a 50 as a 1b because they think there is elite plate discipline and above average power. If he can hit 30 homers and walk 13% in the majors he can be an average first baseman with a 245 average.

Yes Garcia would be a swing change candidate, good exit velo but a little low launch angle. Problem is that a swing change is a risk. JDM was about to be out baseball after Houston released him but Avi already is a decent albeit not great hitter. 2017 was a fluke but I guess his healthy true talent is something like 280 with 15-20 homers which secures him a well paid job. There would be some risk to try a swing change and maybe end up in a mess like heyward or Pederson who change swing like every off season.

You simply can't judge the rebuild until 2021 or so. I agree it didn't start super well like the cubs rebuild with moncada and giolito struggling and kopech and Robert getting hurt quite a bit but there are still a lot of chips down in the farm and the guys up have time to fix their flaws. What matters is the end result and I don't think we can judge that before 2021. Sure giolito and moncada already showed some red flags in the minors but otherwise it also was a lot of bad luck involved with prospect injuries.

1b was terrible in the AL this year.

That is an understatement, over the last 3 years cruz has a higher ops+ than machado and Harper, he was a top hitter. However at his age decline or injury can come quickly.

Harper already turned down 300, I think he will probably get 400 in the end, or alternatively 300 with 3 opt outs starting after 2 years like heyward got. I think machado also will get 300, no team is going to commit 700m to both.

I think BA is good with the top100 but I think they are not putting much effort behind that and just put out names late. I trust fangraphs much more because they actually grade the 40s and 45s. I think BA does the top100 well with effort and then pulls the 10-20 org guys a bit out of their ***.

Corbin was really good last year and probably is the best available starter. It wasn't luck either his peripherals were spectacular: 2.47 FIP (3rd in mlb) 30.8% k (7th in mlb) 24.8% k-bb (5th in mlb) There is obvious regression risk but he was an absolute ace last year and actually had more WAR last year than both machado and Harper. I'm not saying this will continue but there is a chance you get an absolute ace. And I don't think the sox will pay the 350 millions needed for either of Harper and machado but Corbin at 5/90 or so would be interesting.

Of course he won't break camp because then all the hate he faced for not calling him up in September would be for nothing. The can live with a shitstorm, Epstein got hate by cubs fans too but a week after he was up that was all forgotten.

I do think the sox will make an offer but I can't see them actually winning the bid. They probably hope the market is slow but if the yankees, phillies, dodgers make serious offers they won't beat them.

There is a chance the 19 sox are like this years braves: -eloy debuts like acuna -robert does a Soto (high A to majors) -moncada, giolito, lopez take a big step forward -anderson continues to improve a bit Now this isn't a likely outcome but there is a chance, at least better than the teams who just started tanking.

A 670 ops is actually pretty terrible (mlb average is about 730). The obp is decent but slugging is part of hitting especially at first base. If banuelos becomes a decent lefty reliever the trade would be a win. Of course most likely is that both amount to nothing. The Dodgers will probably improve his swing a little because they have great coaching but the upside is still limited. I would put banuelos in relief immediately and if he does decently you can flip him for a slightly better prospect than yurchak is.

Yeah with sheets I would be afraid that we read "worked with Justin Turners private coach in the offseason" and all of a sudden he hits 35% grounders and hits 30 bombs if he gets traded but if raw power isn't great a swing change will only do so much.

I agree. Yurchak has a good k-bb rate but zero power plus he is a ground ball machine. Now the dodgers coaches unlike the sox coaches can fix the latter but even with a swing change the raw power is below average. A first baseman who might hit 15 bombs with decent obp is not sought after in mlb.

I think the sale trade was pretty good. Not only they got the number 1 prospect in baseball but also a tor upside pitcher. Now currently the pitcher is hurt and moncada still tries to find his stride (would have hoped him starting like the braves guys) but at the time it was a great trade and it can still become one.

With madrigal there are different options. He had a wrist injury and I do think with a healthy wrist he can hit 8-10 homers next year when he maybe adds 10-15 pounds to his frame. But he also has a non optimal bat path, that is very compact and quick but cuts through the zone and causes ground balls. There are two options now. Leave him as he is and get a good average, 10 homer guy or do what the Astros did with Bergman who also was a polished college hitter but had similar bat path issues and the Astros corrected that and turned him into a star. Now don't get me wrong, Bergman has more raw power than madrigal so a swing change won't make him that much of a star but it could have a significant effect and make him a 20 homer guy. The downside is that the latter will take another season or 1 and a half and there is also a chance a swing change messes him up like what the cubs tried with heyward (wanted to make him lift the ball more and all fell apart). Since I'm also a hitting coach (albeit in amateur ball) I would probably go for the change but then again the Astros have top notch minor league coaches and the so maybe not. Difficult decision.

He said he also wants to train pitching this winter. Do you buy into that? I would assume he will mostly be a mop up reliever. With the bat I like the walk increase but he still wiffs a ton. Probably more of a platoon/bench bat.

Yeah a lot of Good starters are high draft picks. It is hard to find starters late because so many things need to come together to be a starter (body, pitch mix, delivery, stamina, command). Even many top sp prospects end up in the pen because their 3rd pitch doesn't progress or command is not enough. Because of this tinstaap only works one direction: any SP prospect can fail but rarely a non SP prospect becomes one. So it does exist but you still need ways to acquire starters.

A lot of talk about prospects but I think equally important is how the young guys progress. Who do you see taking a step forward? And who do think is maxed out? Most important candidates are of course moncada, giolito and lopez. All 3 have shown glimpses of hope but also very deep and long slumps. I'm more optimistic about moncada and lopez than about giolito.

I like analytics but I don't like the bullpenning trend. Too many pitching changes per game. Could adress that with rules.

I think they could mean that he has less tasks to do at 3b than 2b. 2b has to think a little more on the field

What I like about Vaughn and rutschmann is that they are so polished. They might not get much better than they are now but it also means less chance for sox player dev to mess up. I don't trust them with hs hitters.

Everything being equal being a little above 6 is probably ideal but the hit tool is still key. If you can hit you can hit whether you are altuve or judge. Baseball isn't football, athleticism helps but some bad athletes just can hit and vice versa. Tony gwynn wasn't the greatest athlete but he could square up a ball.

Drafting high floor relievers late in the first round was a trend 3-4 years ago. Teams went away from it though because many of those relievers tended to not hit their projected floor. The idea was nice because a high level reliever is worth 1.5 to 2 war and a late round position player projects about for the same but the problem is not many relievers become that good. Generally the outcome of a late round first rounder isn't all that good. Some become good but many just end up as bench pieces and there isn't an easy solution around that.