Dominikk85

Seems like fan graphs auto ranks players at easier positions if they don't think they will stick, did the same with Collins.

Some stats: Top15 war 16-18 1. Trout, hs 26.1R 2.betts , 5R 3. Altuve int low bonus 4. Ramirez int 50k 5.lindor hs 8. 1R 6. Yelich hs 23. 1R 7. Rendon 6. 1R COLLEGE 8. Bryant 2nd 1R college 9. Arenado 10th 2R HS 10.freeman 14th 2R hS 11. Goldschmidt 15, 8R college 12. Votto 3rd, 2R HS 13. Machado 3rd 1R,Hs 14. Turner 9th, 7R college 15. Blackmon 26th, 2R college Some trends: -Hs stars tend to be first rounders generally pick 1-25 -college bats are top10 picks with the exception of corner bats who were often found in round 2 or even later. Generally very few college bats are playing premium positions -international stars have a variety of backgrounds

I can understand why Teams don't draft hs arms in the top15 anymore, can't bust away those picks. However I think the market has overcorrected in that legitimate top10-15 talents get dropped to the 35-60 range. My strategy would depend on the position of the second pick. If it is 25-35 take the highest upside available hs bat. But if your second pick is 35-50 It might make sense to get a super talented hs arm rather than "the rest" of the HS bats and many teams vulture on them in the comp round.

I wouldn't even be against first round hs pitchers but obviously not top5-10"overall. Hs pitchers bust often but they also a legitimate shot to get an ace past the first round while even the raw super talented hs bats go in mid to late first with the rare mature hs hitter with fully gown power (like harper who hit moonshots at at 15 yo go higher). At the college level you can find aces but after the first 1-2 college pitchers the talent dries up. Hitting is not as extreme but after pick 8 or so upside gets limited. Imo late first to third round can be a good time to pitch risky hs pitchers.

I would agree with that. Some pitchers did have a rocky start to their career and figured it out but so far giolito was dreadful and if he hadn't been a consensus top5 prospect in baseball he might have been in indy ball right now. The big issue is the stuff has rarely been there. I wouldn't care if he had given up tons of walks and homers with a 7 ERA but struck out 25% however his K rate for his career is 16% which is way below league average and of course his walk rate isn't low either. So far there is really nothing positive about his profile: -16% k -10% bb (6% k-bb!) -not an extreme groundball guy either at 45% (a tad above average) -not good at preventing hard contact either As look at ray said he needs to find a consistent set of mechanics and stop thinking and tinkering. I do think though that it is vital that he sits at 95 though, when he is at 91 he is not efficient because it isn't plus command either. Most disappointing is imo that his curve is bad too, it was advertised as plus to double plus.

I think law is quite anal about the prospects he likes and often a bit biased. He doesn't like underpowered guys but if they are toolsy but too raw (like hitters with shady K/BB numbers or pitchers with stuff who cant locate) he doesn't like them either.

Miller had a promising start and of course this is way better than not performing but I wouldn't get too excited about a top5 round advanced college bat doing well in A ball. For college players the real test at AA because they are physically and mechanically ahead of many A ball prospects who are often HS or very young international prospects. A 22 yo college player should be ahead of a 19 yo international or HS guy. Also Miller is a 3b which now is a power position in mlb. At 2b there are still hit over power guys who hit 12 homers with decent obp but at 3b they expect you to hit 25+ in these days. Miller doesn't seem to be a power hitter either and at age 22 there isn't much room to grow the power. If he was able to play MIF that would be different but a 3b who can hit 12 homers isn't good to use as utility/bench guy because he can only play 3rd, 1st and maybe LF, all positions were the bat doesn't play well. If he can play MIF with 12 homers and decent obp that would be a nice bench bat though but for a 3b to play with 40-45 power it basically needs to be 70 hit which is probably a stretch for him.

Yeah he is a decent prospect. Not a great fielder at short but great k to bb ratio and not zero pop either. Can probably hit 15 homers with decent obp in his prime, might move to second or third later

The good thing is that the reds mostly traded for players at the right side of 30. If the whole thing fails they can sell those pieces for prospects again which makes it a pretty low risk move. Preller did the same with the Padres, traded a lot of prospects away but when it didn't work quickly re sold and still had a monster system.

I think it is more that mlb.com wants every team to have some top100 prospects on the list so fringy top 100 guys will be pushed up in thin farm systems like the cubs while the fringy top100 guys of the systems who already have 6-7 guys on the list will get pushed out. It is simply better for traffic if every team has 2-3 guys on the list while sox or padres fans won't care whether they have 8 or 9 guys.

The marlins shouldn't do the deal without one of greene or senzel. India is a nice prospect but if the package is india and a couple 45s it would be disappointing similar to the yelich deal.

Yeah I'm excited too, college games are a lot of fun. Also I have been working with a college player on his swing remotely so I'm excited to see how he does.

Weil Gonzalez broke already out last year. Hope burger can come back but sceptical after two achilles injuries. Same goes for some injured pitchers, generally hoping for better health which was the biggest bad issue of the sox farm last year- just tons of injuries.

Which prospects could have a breakout next year? I think nick madrigal with a healthy wrist and a few pounds more could hit 8-10 homers next season. Another guy would be Steele walker, he has a decent swing and was conaidered a polished college bat. He too had injury struggles with an oblique strain which might have robbed him batspeed.

I think Gonzalez wasn't rated higher is that he is a bit old for his level last year. Age does get considered in prospect rankings. He does have some talent as a 3rd round pick but a non first round college bat needs to show it in AA and AAA before he gets bumped to top100 if he performs. If he had last season as a 20 yo HS bat in high A ball he would be top100 now. If he repeats last years stats in AA or AAA he will be top100 but of course that will be harder at that level, as college players sometimes hit a wall there because their body is finished developing earlier.

I think it wasn't really an approach but him being late on pro pitching maybe due to the injury he had. Interestingly he didn't have a that low pull rate but barely hit any balls to the middle of the field even while his oppo rate was super high. Guys with a true oppo approach will have high up the middle rates too. I think if he is healthy next year and maybe adds 10 pounds this offseason his batspeed should be better and his batted ball profile too.

I'm a bit more concerned about sheets. He hit a few too many grounders but at 45% gb and also 40% pull it wasn't that extreme. It wasn't just a FB quantity thing, his HR/FB was a terrible 5%. Maybe it is his swing that undercuts fly balls too much so they get too much backspin but so far the raw power output looks bad and more needs to be done to unlock his power if it is even there. Maybe the new sabermetric hitting coaches can unlock some with him.

The plate discipline is definitely a positive that makes his hit tool play up half a grade or so. But 40 hit with 50 power is still iffy though, basically that projects for about a 90 ops+, maybe 95 due to the walks. Still is young and can improve but there is quite a bit of risk.

Interesting that the yankees flipped long who is a 50 for stowers who is a 40 albeit with upside. Issue is that long is rule 5 eligible so he has to be protected and both the Yankees and reds have no room for that. So the reds really needed so sell him if they didn't want to lose him unless they carry him on the roster. Seattle has enough room to carry him.

Brian Kenny likes to be controversial. Eloy is a consensus top5 overall prospect in mlb so no way 5 other RFs can be ahead of him. Edit: wait, does he mean top 10 in mlb? That is a bit optimistic for now but maybe eloy can really make a splash like soto last year.

I think he could become an average regular. Decent power, mediocre hit tool and good speed and defense.

Many baseball players are religious and open about it. It is true that this is a bit unusual that sabermetric guys do it as they usually lean left and agnostic. I'm guessing he might have gotten recruited by lisle as they are both part of the "hitting twitter community". Let's see how they are doing, going this direction is definitely the trend now in baseball and really player development can't get any worse in pro baseball. Those guys had good success in the amateurs and now they get the chance to prove they can do it in pro ball.

Yes. 14 was a very weak draft and rodon was even considered 1-1 by some. Also look how the other top 5 turned out. Only schwarber is an mlb regular, kolek, aiken and jackson seem to be total busts.

I think they might take vaughn. Abrams and witt have a higher ceiling but the sox went with "safe" polished college bats in the last years. There is an argument for more diversity in their profile but i think now they will stick with their approach especially since most of their good prospects will be ready by 2020 and now a HS player wouldn't really fit that timeline. I don't think vaughn will become a superstar but he probably can hit 280 with decent obp and 25-30 homers in his prime and he has a very high chance to reach that. That is probably a top 5 first baseman in the AL and pretty similar to what Abreu did.

The cubs are in a tough spot because their recent free agent signings went so bad. Cubs did a great job rebuilding and their initial free agent signings also went great (lester, zobrist). But then they handed out 2 huge contrasts that flopped so far (heyward,darvish) and chatwood isn't cheap either. Now the arb raises kick in and the core gets expensive too. Because of that they just don't have a lot of room to make additions now. Can't really blame ricketts for this and while they might not be a super team anymore they are still got and projected to win their division next year. It won't get easier though, the team is only getting more expensive and the pitching is aging with little help on the way in the farm (whether as SP prospects or trade chips). They had a great run though whith averaging like 95 wins for the last 4 seasons and they likely won't be bad the next 2-3 years either.