Help me understand the doubles though. I'm going purely off of my own eyes here, but it seems like he's getting a s***load more XBH, not just home runs.

The picture is sort of incomplete right now, but launch angles and line drive rates don't seem to have changed drastically. He hit 18 doubles last year and has 14 already this year, so that isn't an illusion. He's actually swinging more (especially at pitches in the strike zone) and making more contact. As far as I can tell, he isn't doing anything radically different. He's making more contact and better contact, and he's also pulling the ball more, leading to more HR power, AND he's also riding a massive BABIP wave. I believe more in the power than the BA, but again, the picture is still incomplete.

Edited June 14, 20178 yr by daggins

I would wait a year and a half before extending him. If they can't extend him by next July and he's still hitting this way, trade him.

The picture is sort of incomplete right now, but launch angles and line drive rates don't seem to have changed drastically. He hit 18 doubles last year and has 14 already this year, so that isn't an illusion. He's actually swinging more (especially at pitches in the strike zone) and making more contact. As far as I can tell, he isn't doing anything radically different. He's making more contact and better contact, and he's also pulling the ball more, leading to more HR power, AND he's also riding a massive BABIP wave. I believe more in the power than the BA, but again, the picture is still incomplete.

The BABIP thing is so hard to wrap your mind around as a fan that watches his PAs, just because he seems to have so many PAs where he is just crushing the ball. I have noticed the increase in pulled balls, but he also seems to be hitting the ball up the middle extremely hard as well. I noticed in Tampa (I believe it was) they actually had shifted to put the 2b directly behind second base basically. Perhaps defensive shifts will bring down the BABIP?

 

Either way, when all the numbers shake out, and the regression ultimately happens or doesn't, at least in terms of the contact he is currently making, if this is the quality of contact he will make from here on out - he will be a valuable hitter. Now, that doesn't mean the pitchers won't make further adjustments that will cause the quality of that contact to decrease, but...

I would wait a year and a half before extending him. If they can't extend him by next July and he's still hitting this way, trade him.

This makes sense.

The BABIP thing is so hard to wrap your mind around as a fan that watches his PAs, just because he seems to have so many PAs where he is just crushing the ball. I have noticed the increase in pulled balls, but he also seems to be hitting the ball up the middle extremely hard as well. I noticed in Tampa (I believe it was) they actually had shifted to put the 2b directly behind second base basically. Perhaps defensive shifts will bring down the BABIP?

 

Either way, when all the numbers shake out, and the regression ultimately happens or doesn't, at least in terms of the contact he is currently making, if this is the quality of contact he will make from here on out - he will be a valuable hitter. Now, that doesn't mean the pitchers won't make further adjustments that will cause the quality of that contact to decrease, but...

Yes, he's hitting the ball hard way too often for it to be considered lucky IMO.

You can hit the ball hard and still have un sustainable BABIP. Avi is not going to have a BABIP of over .400 on October 1st. He might have one over .370 though. ZIPS sees .347 the rest of the way, which tells you that ZIPS has "baked in" his batted ball improvements.

 

Personally I'm more curious if he can finish with an ISO over .200, which would be a big mark for him. He needs to keep hitting his XBH.

You can hit the ball hard and still have un sustainable BABIP. Avi is not going to have a BABIP of over .400 on October 1st. He might have one over .370 though. ZIPS sees .347 the rest of the way, which tells you that ZIPS has "baked in" his batted ball improvements.

 

Personally I'm more curious if he can finish with an ISO over .200, which would be a big mark for him. He needs to keep hitting his XBH.

Yeah, I get it.

 

But all you can ask the guy is to keep barrelling it up. The rest will happen as it will.

It's June 15th and Avi is leading the league in hitting at .339

 

Bizarre.

 

Easily the most unlikely thing that has happened to the White Sox this year, and that is including Tommy Kahnle.

Avi 27/59 against left handers . Leading the league with a mind boggling .458 average. Also .661 slg. and 1.136 OPS . Also batting .306 against righties.

Easily the most unlikely thing that has happened to the White Sox this year, and that is including Tommy Kahnle.

 

It's almost as unlikely as Leury Garcia being the second best player on the team by fWAR.

It's almost as unlikely as Leury Garcia being the second best player on the team by fWAR.

I saw a list of leaders in defensive runs saved and Leury is #19 in MLB. That's pretty stout. Is it legit?

I saw a list of leaders in defensive runs saved and Leury is #19 in MLB. That's pretty stout. Is it legit?

 

That sounds like it is flawed, it seems like Leury throws to the wrong base a lot. I like him but his athleticism covers a lot of mental mistakes he makes

That sounds like it is flawed, it seems like Leury throws to the wrong base a lot. I like him but his athleticism covers a lot of mental mistakes he makes

 

And he likes to blow through the cutoff man too.

And hold onto the ball a beat or two longer to dare runners to advance so he can shovw off his arm and pile up assists.

And hold onto the ball a beat or two longer to dare runners to advance so he can show off his arm and pile up assists.

That sounds like it is flawed, it seems like Leury throws to the wrong base a lot. I like him but his athleticism covers a lot of mental mistakes he makes

He's leading all OF in assists though. Is he throwing to the wrong base enough to offset that?

It's almost as unlikely as Leury Garcia being the second best player on the team by fWAR.

 

Davidson leading Abreu, Garcia and Frazier in homers by 3?

Yeah, I don't know. If you were to give me all three options I very well may have voted Leury Garcia with an .800 OPS in Mid June with essentially a starters load as least likely.

Or Sanchez providing exactly what Saladino was (hoped) to produce...

He's leading all OF in assists though. Is he throwing to the wrong base enough to offset that?

 

Fangraphs has him at + 5.7 runs in CF, so he's doing something right. The Sox have gotten 6 fWAR out of Avi, Yolmer and Leury -- that's wild.

Yeah, I don't know. If you were to give me all three options I very well may have voted Leury Garcia with an .800 OPS in Mid June with essentially a starters load as least likely.

 

I smell a poll.