gahhh....I have some family down there that's feeling a bit uneasy. I'd hope people would be smart enough to bail early if you're going to bail instead of waiting. Hard to say what this one will be like compared to Harvey.

 

That being said...with all the attention given to Harvey (and rightfully so)...and this upcoming Irma...half of Montana has gone up in flames without much notoriety. Horrible what's happening up in that beautiful part of the country.

 

NOAA's 5-day radar forecast, ends just as Irma would start to make landfall in FL.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905078934194278405

Those paths all (well except for the one outlier) put Miami and south Florida into the most dangerous quadrant of a hurricane.

FEMA is down to it's last billion, having spent half of its annual budget just since Thursday.

can we retitle this thread "Weekly storm of the century"?

Jose coming in right behind Irma

 

Jose coming in right behind Irma

 

 

Any idea yet if Jose is supposed to make landfall and where?

Might hit some of the Caribbean islands, but it's projected to push up and east into the Atlantic.

 

 

Irma's projections keep shifting back and forth over Florida. It might push east too and just drench Florida rather than completely wrecking it.

 

Edited September 6, 20178 yr by StrangeSox

Hoping for a miracle here. PR can't take devastation, and at least that the worst of the winds dissipate quickly as it hits land.

FEMA is down to it's last billion, having spent half of its annual budget just since Thursday.

 

Guess who wants to cut 900M off that budget?

The island of Barbuda, which is part of Antigua, hadn't had any contact since the storm hit overnight. The PM of Antigua flew over this afternoon and just recently gave a press conference via radio. Estimated damages are that 90% of the buildings are gone. Estimated fatalities are over 1000. The island's population is only 1600.

Edited September 6, 20178 yr by StrangeSox

NHC Update:

#Katia also upgraded, marking back-to-back-to-back-to-back hurricanes in the Atlantic. First time 3 simultaneous H's since 2010.

 

LINK

The island of Barbuda, which is part of Antigua, hadn't had any contact since the storm hit overnight. The PM of Antigua flew over this afternoon and just recently gave a press conference via radio. Estimated damages are that 90% of the buildings are gone. Estimated fatalities are over 1000. The island's population is only 1600.

 

wow

Hoping for a miracle here. PR can't take devastation, and at least that the worst of the winds dissipate quickly as it hits land.

 

Really good news: The eye of Irma is already moving north of Puerto Rico -- meaning the worst of the winds should remain safely offshore. https://t.co/KyHfs4Czth

— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 6, 2017

 

wow

 

Well, so they revised that initial comment down from 1,000 to 1 fatality. Still estimating near-total destruction, though.

The island of Barbuda, which is part of Antigua, hadn't had any contact since the storm hit overnight. The PM of Antigua flew over this afternoon and just recently gave a press conference via radio. Estimated damages are that 90% of the buildings are gone. Estimated fatalities are over 1000. The island's population is only 1600.

 

Their Prime Minister said 0 in the last hour.

 

https://twitter.com/the_real_shull/status/905424749270007808

Their Prime Minister said 0 in the last hour.

 

https://twitter.com/the_real_shull/status/905424749270007808

 

This post states 1.

 

https://www.facebook.com/DiscoverMNI/posts/1246357958841356

LINK

 

Global warming isn't real at all, totally fake.

Any idea yet if Jose is supposed to make landfall and where?

As of right now, Jose is supposed to take a path north of where Irma is currently headed and peak at intensity of at least Category 3 somewhere near Bermuda, making it also a major hurricane. However, after that the potential paths are all over the place - it could continue towards the coast, swing farther south, or turn away from the US, all are within range.

 

Basically that needs several days of development before we're anywhere close to knowing about landfall.

If you have not seen the photos the Hurricane Hunters are sharing from inside the Eye you absolutely have to they're amazing.

 

Irma has continued strengthening all day as recorded by dropping central pressures.

First photos of Barbuda. Don't think that single fatality is going to hold

 

 

https://twitter.com/WeatherSarov/status/905...src=twsrc%5Etfw

So, the summary today:

 

-Irma has sustained 185+ mph winds for >24 hours. First ever Atlantic storm to do that.

-Puerto Rico appears to be able to avoid a direct eyewall impact, but because they have been forced into dramatic maintenance cutbacks by their debt relief agreement with the U.S. Government their systems were already in bad shape and there is talk that it could take months just to get the electricity back on from this sideswipe.

-Be cautious about sharing photos of devastated areas, we saw a whole bunch of that with Harvey and many of them were frauds, tornado shots, photoshopped, etc.

-There is now almost certainly going to be a US landfall of Irma as a major (3+) hurricane.

-If Irma steers slightly west it makes landfall in Miami and weakens as it moves up the peninsula.

-If Irma steers slighly east Miami breathes a sigh of relief and gets the same bypass that Puerto Rico got. Irma drenches Florida but most of the winds miss, and the storm makes landfall as a Major Hurricane somewhere near Georgia or South Carolina.

-The worst case scenario is right in the middle of the cone and close to what the European Model is putting out right now. That scenario is a landfall of the eye at Miami, hitting a major urban area as a category 5 storm. That would then be followed by the storm heading north hugging the coast, and like Harvey it could maintain strength by keeping part of the storm's core over unusually warm Atlantic waters as it goes. This basically produces a Category 3+ storm landfall up the entire eastern coast of Florida and Georgia until full landfall is made. 20 miles east or west avoids this scenario, but if it happens then Irma is easily the most expensive natural disaster in US history - including ones that happened in the last week.

I'm heartbroken about this. I've spent a lot of time in the BVIs and the USVIs, and Virgin Gorda is one of my favorite places on earth. There's been no communication from the island for over 12 hours now. I'm pretty sure I'll hardly recognize it when connection is finally made.

 

This, Houston, the entire Pacific Northwest (specifically the Columbia River Gorge)..... It's just unreal.

Good Lord

 

Good Lord

 

That would be devastating.

 

I had always figured when I retired I would spend my summers and most of the fall in Chicago, and buy a condo in south FL for the winter. Now, maybe I'll rent or go to AZ in the winter. Even though I wouldn't be there for hurricane season, I don't want to own anything in any hurricane alley.