What do you think? Fangraphs actually projects them for only 61 wins. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?...ition=Standings

 

You would expect moncada to improve but most prospects won't make the majors until September (eloy, kopech) or 2018.

 

I think they have a real shot at 100 losses. They lost their 4th, 5th,6th, 9th war players (quintana, frazier, kahnle, swarzak) and there is a shot they trade more.

 

I would actually prefer them selling abreu and avi to build the best farm in history, get a first overall pick, delay eloy and kopech until may 2019 in the minors to put everything into the 2020-2026 window to win a ws or two.

 

No reason to try to get incrementally better, build a super team for that first half of the 2020s time frame.

They'll be a little better than last year: 72-75 wins. Avi will have a good year and they'll sell him in July. Hopefully Soria too.

 

No need to grovel for a top 5 pick. 5-12 is fine.

Unless Abreu and Garcia are traded I expect them to be a few games better this year, somewhere in the low 70s would be my guess. If those 2 are moved, they could very well contend for the #1 pick again.

 

Kopech and Eloy will not let you delay them. Anybody else getting called up I could consider them being rushed. Those 2 are going to leave a trail of shattered minor leaguers in their wake until they reach the bigs. They are better. I don't like guys being called up too early, and aside from "The extra year of control" they'll get by starting in the minors to open the year, I don't like guys being kept down if they earn their callup.

They'll be a little better than last year: 72-75 wins. Avi will have a good year and they'll sell him in July. Hopefully Soria too.

 

No need to grovel for a top 5 pick. 5-12 is fine.

 

So fangrpaphs projections are too low by 10+ games?

 

So fangrpaphs projections are too low by 10+ games?

For a team this young I don't think that's unreasonable at all.

They play 38 games vs. KC and Detroit. They aren't losing 100 unless a lot of things go really wrong. And no one will be happy even if they got the top pick.

Edited January 5, 20188 yr by Dick Allen

So fangrpaphs projections are too low by 10+ games?

I think so, but really depends on what we get out of our pitching staff. A lot of unknowns there. Having said that, the fact we play the Tigers 19 will result in us being better than what Fangraphs is predicting.

For a team this young I don't think that's unreasonable at all.

 

But which of the young guys is actually good? Most of the good young players are in the minors? Avi and abreu are good but they won't be any better than last year. The only guys with upside are imo moncada and rendon everyone else is just a placeholder for the real prospects.

They play 38 games vs. KC and Detroit. They aren't losing 100 unless a lot of things go really wrong.

Yeah this. Was going to include KC in my post but waiting to see if they bring any of their guys back or make any other moves to replace them.

Pitching is really bad, though it got a little bit better with today's trade. But we still got a lot out of Quintana, Kahnle, Robertson, Swarzak, and Frazier before they were traded so I wouldn't want to bet on a better record this year.

But which of the young guys is actually good? Most of the good young players are in the minors? Avi and abreu are good but they won't be any better than last year. The only guys with upside are imo moncada and rendon everyone else is just a placeholder for the real prospects.

Giolito, Lopez, & Anderson most definitely have upside. Delmonico, Sanchez, & L. Garcia can all exceed their projections.

I actually think almost nobody of the current young guys has a future with the sox because the prospects coming up are so much better.

 

I don't see a reason to improve next year and, why not do maximum tanking and build that super team for 2020-2026 or so? Yeah they don't need a first overall pick but why not get it anyway?

 

Also regarding delaying eloy and kopech I think you could easily do that. Kopech is great but still too wild to start in the majors (4.5 bb per 9 last year) and eloy has only played 18 games at AA last year. If you let him play in AA for 2 months and then get him to AAA you could wait until next year without causing too much trouble.

 

I would take that extra year of control.

So fangrpaphs projections are too low by 10+ games?

I didn't look at fangraphs projections, but if they predicted 62-65 wins, then, yes, I think they are.

 

I realize the sox played half of 2017 with Q, Frazier, Kahnle, et al. But on the other hand, the win total was depressed by a ridiculously bad July, caused, imv, somewhat by the trauma from all the trades and trade rumors.

The Sox had some injuries - Leury, who was having an improved season, missed extended time, and caused the Sox to use a player who should have been in AAA (and hopefully will be in 2018). They may also get Nate back; and some of the less experienced buys in the pen improved.

It just doesn't look like a rotten 65 win team to me.

It looks like an interesting and hungry 74 win team!

Edited January 5, 20188 yr by GreenSox

I think we could be worse. We had a pretty good record in the first half with a lights out bullpen, Jose Quintana and nelly Cabrera and Todd Frazier. All gone and replaced by AAAA long shots or volatile young players.

 

I hope I’m wrong but it could be a rough year.

Definitely think better, but hopefully still s***ty enough for a top 10 pick

 

Best case scenario CWS competes for a WC in a rebuilding year

Honestly 1st overall pick is sort of luxury when it comes to the rebuilding process. It's much more important to get good returns on Abreu and Garcia. Also if Soria bounces back he could net a top 100 prospect.

 

Take a look at the trades already made. Would you rather take a lesser package for Q and draft 1st or have Eloy and draft 4th?

 

 

 

It looks like an interesting and hungry 74 win team!

 

Examples of oxymorons:

 

Deafening silence

Jumbo shrimp

Military intelligence

Interesting 74 win teams

 

Take a look at the trades already made. Would you rather take a lesser package for Q and draft 1st or have Eloy and draft 4th?

 

Why would these be mutually exclusive? Jimenez didn't even play in the majors last year so why couldn't they have made that trade and get the top pick?

 

I think we could be worse. We had a pretty good record in the first half with a lights out bullpen, Jose Quintana and nelly Cabrera and Todd Frazier. All gone and replaced by AAAA long shots or volatile young players.

 

I hope I’m wrong but it could be a rough year.

 

Playing 38 games against the Royals and Tigers will certainly keep us from reaching 100 losses I feel. 2018 is certainly not a contention season, but we could see minor improvements.

I would say about the same honestly. Bullpen is a mess (they're going to blow a lot of nice games pitched by our starters), some of the young guys will struggle.

Edited January 5, 20188 yr by soxfan2014

Yes generally a top5 overall prospect is better than a first overall pick.

 

Usually a first overall pick is ranked like 15-20 immediately and might climb with a good year. Top 5 pick is like top50 and top10 lower level top100.

 

Definitely prefer a better return but I still think they should tank all the way next year and start improving in 2019.

I think the Sox will be in the hunt for the first overall pick.

 

This year is all about development. Look at how many young guys that will be on the ML roster: Anderson, Moncada, Lopez, Fulmer, Giolito, Delmonic, and I'm sure forgetting someone.

 

Plus the pitching staff, while having all the potential in the world, is not as good as it was when the season opened last year. Same goes for the bullpen.

 

Next year is going to be very rough for the Sox and it will be the hardest year of this process but getting another top five pick will be huge for this process because hopefully it's their last for a while.

Edited January 5, 20188 yr by Joshua Strong

I expect Kopech up this year and maybe Eloy... although I could see him up next year along with Hansen + others. Unless they're trading Abreu and/or Avi early, and the young guys take a step back or disappoint entirely (or if they bring back Holland and pitch both he and Covey every 5th day) I don't think they'll be THAT bad.

I expect Kopech up this year and maybe Eloy... although I could see him up next year along with Hansen + others. Unless they're trading Abreu and/or Avi early, and the young guys take a step back or disappoint entirely (or if they bring back Holland and pitch both he and Covey every 5th day) I don't think they'll be THAT bad.

I will bet you that Eloy Jiminez will not let you keep him in the minors. His numbers will be too good.

I will bet you that Eloy Jiminez will not let you keep him in the minors. His numbers will be too good.

 

Not too good...

 

#thebesss