May 9, 20187 yr 3 hours ago, Balta1701 said: They were 26-24 on May 31 in 2016 and won 91 games. Oh yeah, I could definitely see them winning 91 games after a 26-24 start type start but 100+ Wins? Nah, not again if they are still hanging around .500 at the end of this month.
May 13, 20187 yr Author On 5/7/2018 at 9:55 PM, caulfield12 said: They have control of Abreu through 2019...of course, another factor here is Jose's "pride" and getting him off the field of play, which should improve 1B from a defensive standpoint significantly. Troy Tulowitzi, "the best player like ever," yet another argument for NOT putting all your eggs in one basket (see Belle, Albert) http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769629-the-best-player-like-ever-the-painful-story-of-troy-tulowitzki?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial I mean of course but this year should tell us how bad we are going to be till at least 2020. So his control isn't worth much to us beyond him just being a fan favorite and someone making CWS worth watching. 2020 we can either sign him as a free agent or go in another direction. Also it spares the guy of wasting his prime years on a non-contender I'm sure he loves it here in fact his comments make it clear he does but I'm also sure as like you said a prideful guy he'd also like to play meaningful baseball. As for whether he'd come back in 2020 I mean it's rare but it happens. Take a look at what the Yanks did with Chapman.
May 14, 20187 yr I'm not expecting anything until 2022 or 2023 at this point. I'm starting to resign myself to the fact that most of the core of the next Sox contending team is in AA, A, or not drafted yet. It is sad because Moncada is a stud and he's probably gone by the time they're contending again.
May 14, 20187 yr 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: I'm not expecting anything until 2022 or 2023 at this point. I'm starting to resign myself to the fact that most of the core of the next Sox contending team is in AA, A, or not drafted yet. It is sad because Moncada is a stud and he's probably gone by the time they're contending again. This post is so confusing
May 14, 20187 yr 8 minutes ago, soxfan49 said: This post is so confusing I think most of the Sox best prospects are 2-3 seasons away from the majors. Then you add in 2-3 seasons for MLB development and you're in 2022 already.
May 14, 20187 yr We're now talking on the board about our best players of the rebuild leaving via free agency for sure. Folks ... Chicago is not a small town, small market. The franchise is worth BIG BUCKS. If Moncada and Eloy and some of those pitchers lead us to greatness, they better damn well sign them. Or are we gonna hate on our stud prospects when they hit 29 and 30 like we hate on everybody else 29 and 30.
May 14, 20187 yr 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: I think most of the Sox best prospects are 2-3 seasons away from the majors. Then you add in 2-3 seasons for MLB development and you're in 2022 already. The Sox best hitting prospect is ready to play in the majors now, and their best pitching prospect is ideally going to be ready to pitch in the majors in a year at the latest. What are you talking about?
May 14, 20187 yr 7 minutes ago, soxfan49 said: The Sox best hitting prospect is ready to play in the majors now, and their best pitching prospect is ideally going to be ready to pitch in the majors in a year at the latest. What are you talking about? Are Kopech, Moncada, Jimenez, and( maybe) Lopez good enough to win games to win games by themselves??? Best case, you're looking at a stars/scrubs roster similar to 2015-16 until the group from A+ start to hit in the majors. By then, those four will be in their first or second arbitration year. We're looking at a Royals like window people. Only one to three seasons before top players start hitting FA. This could result in 3 playoff appearances but zero championships, and we have to be prepared for that. Edited May 14, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman
May 14, 20187 yr 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Are Kopech, Moncada, Jimenez, and( maybe) Lopez good enough to win games to win games by themselves??? Best case, you're looking at a stars/scrubs roster similar to 2015-16 until the group from A+ start to hit in the majors. By then, those two will be in their first or second arbitration year. We're looking at a Royals like window people. Only one to three seasons before top players start hitting FA. I think you're severely miscalculating when players will come up. The majority of our top guys should be in the majors by the end of the 2019 season.
May 14, 20187 yr Just now, Jose Abreu said: I think you're severely miscalculating when players will come up. The majority of our top guys should be in the majors by the end of the 2019 season. You think Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, and Cease will be up by the end of next season???? That is overly optimistic, IMO. Sure, I could see Jimenez up in September 2018, Kopech in June 2019, and Collins/Cease in Sept. 2019. I don't see the others hitting the Bigs until June 2020 at the earliest. Then, once up, you have to account for growing pains which is why the only way 2020 or 2021 is possible is if they hit the ground running immediately which while possible, is unlikely. So the most realistic window is from 2022-2025.
May 14, 20187 yr 12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Are Kopech, Moncada, Jimenez, and( maybe) Lopez good enough to win games to win games by themselves??? Best case, you're looking at a stars/scrubs roster similar to 2015-16 until the group from A+ start to hit in the majors. By then, those four will be in their first or second arbitration year. We're looking at a Royals like window people. Only one to three seasons before top players start hitting FA. This could result in 3 playoff appearances but zero championships, and we have to be prepared for that. You’re assuming that this rebuild is going to be only the guys they have in the farm system. 1) let’s say it is and in *2019* Kopech is very good, Moncada continues to hit the piss out of the ball and Jimenez is great. Don’t you think adding a 3.20 ERA at the top of the rotation and a 35 homer guy in the middle of the order are going to be a tremendous help? 2) there are things called trades and free agent signings. Similar to the Cubs, Astros and Royals, the Sox will finally start adding pieces via these 2 avenues. 3) KC is a small market team who couldn’t pay any of their guys. The Sox will likely keep Moncada and Jimenez. Assuming the Sox will once again work their magic on a team friendly long term deal with an up and coming youngster, that will allow them to keep one more. Not every good player will leave via FA some day Edited May 14, 20187 yr by soxfan49
May 14, 20187 yr 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: You think Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, and Cease will be up by the end of next season???? That is overly optimistic, IMO. Sure, I could see Jimenez up in September 2018, Kopech in June 2019, and Collins/Cease in Sept. 2019. I don't see the others hitting the Bigs until June 2020 at the earliest. Then, once up, you have to account for growing pains which is why the only way 2020 or 2021 is possible is if they hit the ground running immediately which while possible, is unlikely. So the most realistic window is from 2022-2025. I agree that it'll take time for them to get good once they're actually up. But I maintain that you're being overly pessimistic on when they make it here. My guesses are: Kopech: May-July 2018 Jimenez: July-September 2018 Collins: September 2018-May 2019 Robert: Mid 2019 Cease: Late 2019 Rutherford: Early 2020 That's just for the guys you mentioned, not including those like Hansen and Dunning and so on. Adolfo is anyone's guess because of the possibility of a season ending surgery, but if he were healthy we'd certainly see him at some point next season in the majors.
May 14, 20187 yr 1 minute ago, soxfan49 said: You’re assuming that this rebuild is going to be only the guys they have in the farm system. 1) let’s say it is and in *2019* Kopech is very good, Moncada continues to hit the piss out of the ball and Jimenez is great. Don’t you think adding a 3.20 ERA at the top of the rotation and a 35 homer guy in the middle of the order are going to be a tremendous help? 2) there are things called trades and free agent signings. Similar to the Cubs, Astros and Royals, the Sox will finally start adding pieces via these 2 avenues. 3) KC is a small market team who couldn’t pay any of their guys. The Sox will likely keep Moncada and Jimenez. Not every good player will leave via FA some day I hope Moncada and Jimenez stick around but I think they're both going to be at the very least stars and at best among the 10 best hitters in the game(especially Moncada). The Sox won't be able to compete money wise to keep those big boys in town, unfortunately. The Sox fanbase is closer to the Pirates/Royals than it is to the Cubs/Angels.
May 14, 20187 yr 4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: I agree that it'll take time for them to get good once they're actually up. But I maintain that you're being overly pessimistic on when they make it here. My guesses are: Kopech: May-July 2018 Jimenez: July-September 2018 Collins: September 2018-May 2019 Robert: Mid 2019 Cease: Late 2019 Rutherford: Early 2020 That's just for the guys you mentioned, not including those like Hansen and Dunning and so on. Adolfo is anyone's guess because of the possibility of a season ending surgery, but if he were healthy we'd certainly see him at some point next season in the majors. Think that is overly optimistic, and assumes zero struggles from any of them going forward. I assume the following in best case scenarios: Kopech/Jimenez: 9/2018 Collins/Dunning:6/2019 Cease/Hansen:9/2019 Robert/Rutherford: 6/2020 Adolfo/Basabe(potentially)/2018 first rounder: 9/2020
May 14, 20187 yr Luis Robert, for one could be an extremely fast riser. (He comes up and then you have one of the best outfields in baseball with Jimenez, Pollock and Robert.) Rutherford's still 2 or 2 1/2 years away. Robert is as good as all the scouts say and he's at AA to end THIS year, Arizona Fall League, then jumping from BIRM to AA very quickly in 2019 if he gets off to a start like Jimenez this year. Sign AJ Pollock and Moustakas and suddenly you have one of the best young offenses in the AL. 2B Moncada CF AJ Pollock 1B Jose Abreu 3B Mike Moustakas LF Eloy Jimenez DH Matt Davidson/Delmonico (platoon) RF Avisail Garcia (???) C Welington Castillo SS Tim Anderson Yolmer Sanchez becomes your super sub and rotates in at DH as well. Then you've got Leury and the back-up catcher (Smith/Narvaez, etc.) Edited May 14, 20187 yr by caulfield12
May 14, 20187 yr 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: Think that is overly optimistic, and assumes zero struggles from any of them going forward. I assume the following in best case scenarios: Kopech/Jimenez: 9/2018 Collins/Dunning:6/2019 Cease/Hansen:9/2019 Robert/Rutherford: 6/2020 Adolfo/Basabe(potentially)/2018 first rounder: 9/2020 So best case scenario, you see Kopech in September? I'll be sure to save this post for when he's called up in the next few weeks.
May 14, 20187 yr 6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: So best case scenario, you see Kopech in September? I'll be sure to save this post for when he's called up in the next few weeks. Why waste service time on this team? More importantly, he's not ready. He has an ERA over 5 in Charlotte, and has been shelled and wild his last two outings. I think he could be by the end of the season, but he's clearly not now. They are stupid if they bring him up before September. He's 21, already young for the level and there is no need to rush him. Edited May 14, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman
May 14, 20187 yr 6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Why waste service time on this team? More importantly, he's not ready. He has an ERA over 5 in Charlotte, and has been shelled and wild his last two outings. I think he could be by the end of the season, but he's clearly not now. They are stupid if they bring him up before September. He's 21, already young for the level and there is no need to rush him. His ERA was 3.00 before his last start, so it's clearly not indicative of his effectiveness over the scope of this season. I don't think that 2 bad outings changes everything. If he bounces back and is sharp again in his next couple tries, I think he'll get the call.
May 14, 20187 yr 2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: His ERA was 3.00 before his last start, so it's clearly not indicative of his effectiveness over the scope of this season. I don't think that 2 bad outings changes everything. If he bounces back and is sharp again in his next couple tries, I think he'll get the call. Remember, his last two outings were against teams that had lineups similar to the worst MLB teams, so I looked at those as a litmus test and I disagree that he's ready based on that.
May 14, 20187 yr 30 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: So best case scenario, you see Kopech in September? I'll be sure to save this post for when he's called up in the next few weeks. Thank you, I can’t take this much unfounded pessimism.
May 14, 20187 yr 1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said: Why waste service time on this team? More importantly, he's not ready. He has an ERA over 5 in Charlotte, and has been shelled and wild his last two outings. I think he could be by the end of the season, but he's clearly not now. They are stupid if they bring him up before September. He's 21, already young for the level and there is no need to rush him. The Sox want to compete in 2020. You are not wasting service time like people keep saying. You are getting prospects up to speed so that you can compete for a championship in 2020-2023 for sure. If we hold all of these guys down til next year and 2020, our window becomes 2021-2023. Either way, a year will be "wasted". Our FO needs to worry about keeping the core guys now and having guys who can replace those who leave to avoid a Pirates situation.
May 14, 20187 yr You realize the White Sox ALREADY have $26 million more PER SEASON for their broadcasting rights deal than the Pirates, and that's likely to increase to somewhere between $75-100 million, versus the Pirates' $25 million/year? The Pirates peaked at $90 million in 2015, $100 million in 2016 and $96 million in 2017. Back to $86 million this year. Even the Royals have been at $113 (2015), $132, $143 and still $122 million THIS year in a rebuilding season. 2014, their first year in the World Series, $92 million. Another comp: Cleveland Indians (starting in 2013), $81 million, $85 million, $88 million, $96 million, $124 million (year after the World Series against the Cubs), $135 million in 2018
May 14, 20187 yr I'm not sure if you were responding to me, but my point was you don't want to be like the Pirates in that you have no playoff success to show for a rebuild. With said rebuild ending in a few years. We will have money and will need to lock our most important guys up, some of the rest will have to be replaced with savvy moves.
May 14, 20187 yr 10 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: Think that is overly optimistic, and assumes zero struggles from any of them going forward. I assume the following in best case scenarios: Kopech/Jimenez: 9/2018 Collins/Dunning:6/2019 Cease/Hansen:9/2019 Robert/Rutherford: 6/2020 Adolfo/Basabe(potentially)/2018 first rounder: 9/2020 On the prior page of this thread, you said that the majority of the Sox best prospects won't be in the majors for another 2-3 seasons, but now you're saying the following will be up by the end of next year: Kopech, Jimenez, Collins, Dunning, Cease and Hansen. I'm so confused.
May 14, 20187 yr 12 hours ago, soxfan49 said: You’re assuming that this rebuild is going to be only the guys they have in the farm system. 1) let’s say it is and in *2019* Kopech is very good, Moncada continues to hit the piss out of the ball and Jimenez is great. Don’t you think adding a 3.20 ERA at the top of the rotation and a 35 homer guy in the middle of the order are going to be a tremendous help? 2) there are things called trades and free agent signings. Similar to the Cubs, Astros and Royals, the Sox will finally start adding pieces via these 2 avenues. 3) KC is a small market team who couldn’t pay any of their guys. The Sox will likely keep Moncada and Jimenez. Assuming the Sox will once again work their magic on a team friendly long term deal with an up and coming youngster, that will allow them to keep one more. Not every good player will leave via FA some day If we have learned anything from the first six weeks of this season, it should be to pump the breaks on assuming instant stardom from call ups.
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