Carlos Rodon receiving trade interest

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

You're probably right, although I really don't know why the window has shifted out a year or 2 other than it apparently has and the FO wants to push it back. I hope it isn't for job security.  
That said, they probably should move Rodon, but could probably get a lot more a year from now.  But if they get a Q like offer, then by all means.
But they should move Abreu and of course Avi.

Injuries and non-perfomance. The Sox prospects were hit hard with the injury bug the past two seasons. It isn't reasonable to aim for 2020 anymore. The lost development time is too damaging. Especially players that were supposed to make a quick move to the Bigs, such as Burdi, Burger, Dunning and Hansen. 

Then you have the  upper level struggles of Lopez, Giolito, Moncada and Kopech. The entire rebuild took 2 steps backward this season. 2021 or 2022 is more likely than 2020 at this point. It is what it is. The Sox rebuild is more likely to be closer to the Royals than the Cubs or Astros. 

 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[wrathofhahn]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Rodon has three years of control.  Saying he fits the window is very debatable.  Furthermore, he's had a mess of injury issues over the past few years.  If I can get Quintana like package for him, I'm taking that to the bank and running.  We have almost unlimited financial resources in the coming years and no reason we can't add a veteran starter to partially offset his production in the short-run.  Having said all that, I would need to be blown away to move him.  Otherwise, let's hope he can stay healthy and anchor our staff for the next three years.

Agreed but this deadline the returns have been pretty awful. I'd doubt if anyone offered a Q like package just getting a sense for the market via the other moves but if they did I agree take it and run.

Edited July 27, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[fathom]

The rebuild got pushed back in the mind of a lot of Sox fans who naively thought Machado was a lock to sign here this upcoming offseason .

[GreenSox]

Okay, but where is the real hitting core:  it's basically Jimenez, Moncada and Anderson.  And then another player or 2 would join the party, maybe even extend Abreu.  Well that core isn't progressing.
Every rebuild will have a few setbacks.   Burger was never an elite talent; Dunning is a nice pitcher, but others have progressed.
3 or 4 years seems reasonable to me (4 years would be 2020)...at some point, is there accountability?

Edited July 27, 2018 by GreenSox

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

The rebuild got pushed back in the mind of a lot of Sox fans who naively thought Machado was a lock to sign here this upcoming offseason .

He's not coming here. It is a pipedream. Get it out of your heads people. 

Edited July 28, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Okay, but where is the real hitting core:  it's basically Jimenez, Moncada and Anderson.  And then another player or 2 would join the party, maybe even extend Abreu.  Well that core isn't progressing.
Every rebuild will have a few setbacks.
3 or 4 years seems reasonable to me (4 years would be 2020)...at some point, is there accountability?

There should be, but there isn't. I didn't trust this FO to pull this off. This is what we have. JR hasn't fired a GM in nearly 2 decades. Short of winning a billion dollar lottery and buying into the Sox  none of us have any say in the matter. It is what it is.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[GreenSox]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

There should be, but there isn't. I didn't trust this FO to do this one. This is what we have. JR hasn't fired a GM in nearly 2 decades. 

Did he fire Scheuler? If not, it's 3 decades.  

And they won't even put a serious manager on the field to help them with the rebuild - someone who knows the game and knows talent.

Edited July 27, 2018 by GreenSox

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Did he fire Scheuler? If not, it's 3 decades.  

And they won't even put a serious manager on the field to help them with the rebuild - someone who knows the game and knows talent.

Actually I'm not sure his he fired Scheuler or not. I don't remember it was 20 years ago and I was 11. Renteria is a joke and should have been fired yesterday. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

57 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

What evidence is there of any of this?
What is special about the development of Giolito and Lopez?  They are 2 pitchers who were top prospects and who are still struggling.  Where would they be without the great Shields? 

The best I can tell, this is deflective spin out of Hahn. 
I am not jumping on you  - if it appears that way, I apologize.

 I'm jumping on this FO.

Not to mention Soria using the same mechanism to gain movement and turning into two prospects. 

[Goober]

Lololol at the idiots wanting to trade Rodon. Let's trade Eloy, Kopech, Robert, Madrigal, and Cease too. They are too old, let's go even younger and push the competing window back even further. Bahaha

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Goober said:

Lololol at the idiots wanting to trade Rodon. Let's trade Eloy, Kopech, Robert, Madrigal, and Cease too. They are too old, let's go even younger and push the competing window back even further. Bahaha

This was a waste of keystrokes. 

[GenericUserName]

54 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is the point. Albies, who has been up all year, does not have enough of a sample size for the statistical models to adjust. Until there is enough of a sample size that the models adjust, any performance (or lack thereof) at the MLB level is meaningless. You tell me a team that values performance in the majors that puts one iota of value on performance at the MLB level before the sample size is statistically significant, and I'll show you a GM who needs to be fired yesterday. 

The Albies example does not really help your case. Yes, statistical models are taking time to adjust, but scouts and FOs aren't because they know what he is and that the crazy power numbers weren't going to last. On the other hand, most feel that Torres can keep up his level of play for the most part because he was supposed to have elite bat control but might have been lacking in power a bit, but then the new MLB ball helped him enough to become a power threat which really elevated his profile. To think that there is no human element that can see these things when statistical models still need to adjust is just naive. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, GenericUserName said:

The Albies example does not really help your case. Yes, statistical models are taking time to adjust, but scouts and FOs aren't because they know what he is and that the crazy power numbers weren't going to last. On the other hand, most feel that Torres can keep up his level of play for the most part because he was supposed to have elite bat control but might have been lacking in power a bit, but then the new MLB ball helped him enough to become a power threat which really elevated his profile. To think that there is no human element that can see these things when statistical models still need to adjust is just naive. 

I trust numbers more than I trust someone's opinion. To each his own. Not to say that scouting is completely useless, because it isn't. I'd only trust it when the numbers back up the scouts. 

[wrathofhahn]

14 minutes ago, Goober said:

Lololol at the idiots wanting to trade Rodon. Let's trade Eloy, Kopech, Robert, Madrigal, and Cease too. They are too old, let's go even younger and push the competing window back even further. Bahaha

Rodon has three years of control and we are probably looking at two years before all the kids are up and we are ready to add. So yeah he's probably more valuable to someone else whose an actual contender right now then us.

But the returns have been awful this trade deadline so you will probably get your wish. Hard to see him moved for a Q like package when teams can pickup rentals like Happ and Hamels for nothing.

Edited July 27, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[GenericUserName]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I trust numbers more than I trust someone's opinion. To each his own. Not to say that scouting is completely useless, because it isn't. I'd only trust it when the numbers back up the scouts. 

Well then there is no point in arguing this. If you are just going to scout the stat line for people with 800 PAs in the majors, good luck ever fielding a good team. 

[chitownsportsfan]

26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This was a waste of keystrokes. 

no way, it got you three free karma.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Listen to any Theo Epstein interview from the last year. Everyone is using similar analytics, the playing field has to sort of leveled off in terms of data collection, everyone is doing it. His point is scouting, the human element has become that much more important now. The pendulum is starting to swing back to scouting in that regard. 

Its the same argument when people say “XYZ stat is meaningless, don’t even look at it.” Which I’ve always said is a dumb approach. You should never use one stat to evaluate a player. We live in an incredibly rich Information Age, why rely on just one piece of information? Talent evaluators certainty don’t. And that’s not to say some stats aren’t as important as others.  Use every piece of data available to you (that doesn’t mean just stats either) and make your best judgement. 

I also think talent development with coaching is becoming even more important

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Tony said:

Listen to any Theo Epstein interview from the last year. Everyone is using similar analytics, the playing field has to sort of leveled off in terms of data collection, everyone is doing it. His point is scouting, the human element has become that much more important now. The pendulum is starting to swing back to scouting in that regard. 

Its the same argument when people say “XYZ stat is meaningless, don’t even look at it.” Which I’ve always said is a dumb approach. You should never use one stat to evaluate a player. We live in an incredibly rich Information Age, why rely on just one piece of information? Talent evaluators certainty don’t. And that’s not to say some stats aren’t as important as others.  Use every piece of data available to you (that doesn’t mean just stats either) and make your best judgement. 

I am a huge fan of "Bayesian" style induction.  You make some good guesses, run some tests, and re-evaluate.  Scouting gives MLB teams some "good guesses" about how to judge a player and analytics can refine those guesses.  

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I also think talent development with coaching is becoming even more important

Which is a good thing we have Ricky!

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

no way, it got you three free karma.

Also +1.

[Chicago White Sox]

46 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Injuries and non-perfomance. The Sox prospects were hit hard with the injury bug the past two seasons. It isn't reasonable to aim for 2020 anymore. The lost development time is too damaging. Especially players that were supposed to make a quick move to the Bigs, such as Burdi, Burger, Dunning and Hansen. 

Then you have the  upper level struggles of Lopez, Giolito, Moncada and Kopech. The entire rebuild took 2 steps backward this season. 2021 or 2022 is more likely than 2020 at this point. It is what it is. The Sox rebuild is more likely to be closer to the Royals than the Cubs or Astros. 

 

Regarding the major league players, this is what development looks like.  You seem to think if a guy comes up & doesn’t dominate from the start he’s destined to flop.  These guys are still learning and it’s these adjustments at the major league level that are the hardest.  But oftentimes things will just finally click and these young guys will make massive leaps.  You really need to give this rebuild more time before jumping to conclusions on the timeline.

[Jack Parkman]

32 minutes ago, Tony said:

Right, everything works together. There is a place for both. 

I agree with this. You get the most information that is reasonable to acquire and build a profile on a player based on that. 

I'd actually argue that scouting is much more important when the numbers are not statistically significant. 

My point with Torres, Albies, and others though was to take everything that happens in a player's 1st 1000 PA or 300 IP with an incredibly massive grain of salt. They have to be through the league 3-4 times and prove they can make adjustments before I trust anything. This is the point in player development where scouts are most important. 

Edited July 28, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

58 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Agreed but this deadline the returns have been pretty awful. I'd doubt if anyone offered a Q like package just getting a sense for the market via the other moves but if they did I agree take it and run.

Oh I agree it’s a huge long shot.  But all it takes is one GM to do something crazy.  We all remember the Shelby Miller trade.  It’s the exact reason everyone should always be available because you just don’t know when someone will do something a little bit crazy unless you are listening.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Regarding the major league players, this is what development looks like.  You seem to think if a guy comes up & doesn’t dominate from the start he’s destined to flop.  These guys are still learning and it’s these adjustments at the major league level that are the hardest.  But oftentimes things will just finally click and these young guys will make massive leaps.  You really need to give this rebuild more time before jumping to conclusions on the timeline.

Of course I know development isnt linear. Is the player getting better or worse is all I'm asking. When I watch Sox games I couldn't care less about results it's all about the progress of the guys who could be a part of the next contender 

[Chicago White Sox]

31 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

The Albies example does not really help your case. Yes, statistical models are taking time to adjust, but scouts and FOs aren't because they know what he is and that the crazy power numbers weren't going to last. On the other hand, most feel that Torres can keep up his level of play for the most part because he was supposed to have elite bat control but might have been lacking in power a bit, but then the new MLB ball helped him enough to become a power threat which really elevated his profile. To think that there is no human element that can see these things when statistical models still need to adjust is just naive. 

Great post.  The best front offices are always going to balance scouting with analytics to make the best decision making possible.  When data sets are limited, like when evaluating young players during their first major league season, scouting becomes even more important.