59 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

To me, Eovaldi is the poster boy for 2020 hindsight saying what were you thinking.  He hasn't made more than 27 starts since 2014, and has had 2 TJ surgeries.  The Yankees won't go more than 3 years, and they print money and know him and his medicals pretty well. He seems like an extended DL guy to me, or a guy you would have to find some obscure advanced stat to justify what you paid him. I don't think he is a guy that is going to help you win , at least anywhere near the level they would have to pay him, especially adding a pretty meaningless  2019, when the Sox are ready to win. Pitching is a volatile market. And he is volatile even for a pitcher. Let the Red Sox, Yankees and whoever else battle to see who will pay him bad money.

Look, I can totally respect this viewpoint, but I also think a team in our position has to take some calculated risks when it comes to starting pitching.  

Eovaldi made 60 starts across 2014 & 2015.  He made 21 starts in both 2016 & 2018 with a Tommy John sandwiched in-between.  When he’s not recovering from elbow surgery he’s mostly taken the ball every five days.  Now that’s he shown his stuff has come back after a second TJS, the biggest question with him is will he ever need a third?  The gap between his first & second TJS was nine years.  Unless you have concerns over his postseason usage (which is fair), I think it’s reasonable to expect he can last four years before blowing out his elbow again.  The fact that he’s cut his slider usage in half gives me even more confidence.

Having said that, I can’t ignore there is real risk there, but look at the contract Corbin just got.  Premium pitching goes for big dollars and big years, even with limited track records.  Eovaldi’s injury history is going to cap his total years and likely his AAV to some extent.  I doubt we’ll be able to get a pitcher with his upside for anything close to that amount next season.  IMO, if we’re unwilling to go big after Cole or Sale next year (or convinced we can land them), Eovaldi is the perfect guy to roll the dice on.  

Anyone else like Fiers as a low cost innings eating type?  Obviously we still sign a bigger fish starting pitcher too, but Fiers is interesting, had a good 2018.

There’s no domestic pitcher on the market right now that is good enough to warrant a significant, market rate free agent deal by the White Sox right now. With Corbin gone, they’re all mid rotation starters benefitting from a thin pool. 

Eovaldi is being massively overrated by his postseason performance. If he puts up a 4 WAR season, it’ll be the first time. 

The only guy that makes sense to me is POSSIBLY Kikuchi, and only if the uncertainty that comes with him causes teams to be nervous enough to keep his price down. 

There will ALWAYS be a Nathan Eovaldi on the market available for a median free agent salary. We should get that guy when we are a mid-rotation starter away from being a real contender. Otherwise, you’re spending a ton of money with the only good outcome being that things have to go almost as well as they possibly can. 

55 minutes ago, bschmaranz said:

Anyone else like Fiers as a low cost innings eating type?  Obviously we still sign a bigger fish starting pitcher too, but Fiers is interesting, had a good 2018.

He got non-tendered? I'm totally ok with that. I thought they'd hold him and try to trade him. 

13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

There will ALWAYS be a Nathan Eovaldi on the market available for a median free agent salary.

There will always be guys with Nathan Eovaldi’s stuff available for 4/$60M or so?

Here’s the top 10 average fastballs for pitchers with over 100 innings last year:

• 97.6 - Severino - 5.7 WAR
• 97.4 - Syndergaard - 4.2 WAR
• 97.2 - Eovaldi - 2.2 WAR
• 96.6 - Glasnow - 0.7 WAR
• 96.6 - Cole - 6.3 WAR
• 96.4 - Foltynewicz - 3.9 WAR
• 96.2 - Buehler - 3.3 WAR 
• 96.0 - deGromm - 8.8 WAR
• 95.9 - Wheeler - 4.1 WAR
• 95.8 - Snell - 4.6 WAR

Outside of Glasnow, that’s some seriously elite company.  How often do these guys reach free agency at 28 and what would the cost be?  I’m guessing Cole will command $200M+ next year.  Imagine the cost to acquire one of these guys via trade.  I strongly disagree with your assumption that these type of arms are always readily available in free agency and can be had for any reasonable sum of money.

And yes, I’m perfectly aware that Eovaldi has been a 3 WAR pitcher most of his career when healthy.  He also didn’t have a cutter back then and that’s totally changed his game.  Ignoring the playoffs, he was on pace for a 5 WAR season with the Red Sox.  I think in the Statcast era you have to accept that pitchers can completely reinvent themselves overnight.   So either we can default to his career numbers or assess his new repertoire & determine if maybe he’s a new, more impactful pitcher going forward.

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There will always be guys with Nathan Eovaldi’s stuff available for 4/$60M or so?

Here’s the top 10 average fastballs for pitchers with over 100 innings last year:

• 97.6 - Severino - 5.7 WAR
• 97.4 - Syndergaard - 4.2 WAR
• 97.2 - Eovaldi - 2.2 WAR
• 96.6 - Glasnow - 0.7 WAR
• 96.6 - Cole - 6.3 WAR
• 96.4 - Foltynewicz - 3.9 WAR
• 96.2 - Buehler - 3.3 WAR 
• 96.0 - deGromm - 8.8 WAR
• 95.9 - Wheeler - 4.1 WAR
• 95.8 - Snell - 4.6 WAR

Outside of Glasnow, that’s some seriously elite company.  How often do these guys reach free agency at 28 and what would the cost be?  I’m guessing Cole will command $200M+ next year.  Imagine the cost to acquire one of these guys via trade.  I strongly disagree with your assumption that these type of arms are always readily available in free agency and can be had for any reasonable sum of money.

And yes, I’m perfectly aware that Eovaldi has been a 3 WAR pitcher most of his career when healthy.  He also didn’t have a cutter back then and that’s totally changed his game.  Ignoring the playoffs, he was on pace for a 5 WAR season with the Red Sox.  I think in the Statcast era you have to accept that pitchers can completely reinvent themselves overnight.   So either we can default to his career numbers or assess his new repertoire & determine if maybe he’s a new, more impactful pitcher going forward.

If you get a 1 starter for elite closer money, that's a steal. You would have to be pretty sure about that, though.

Ok, so I'm having trouble with that list. I wanted to see how many guys from the 2017 list of people with fastballs >95 mph got hurt, but then I notioced that Jose Urena was at the top of the 2017 list and I couldn't find any record of him going down for a full season injury. Jose Urena pitched 174 innings last year for the fish, had an average fastball velocity of 96.2, but he's not on your list, and that means I don't know what the issue is but there are people missing. 

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

There’s no domestic pitcher on the market right now that is good enough to warrant a significant, market rate free agent deal by the White Sox right now. With Corbin gone, they’re all mid rotation starters benefitting from a thin pool. 

Eovaldi is being massively overrated by his postseason performance. If he puts up a 4 WAR season, it’ll be the first time. 

The only guy that makes sense to me is POSSIBLY Kikuchi, and only if the uncertainty that comes with him causes teams to be nervous enough to keep his price down. 

There will ALWAYS be a Nathan Eovaldi on the market available for a median free agent salary. We should get that guy when we are a mid-rotation starter away from being a real contender. Otherwise, you’re spending a ton of money with the only good outcome being that things have to go almost as well as they possibly can. 

He had an outstanding September but a mediocre August.  If Boston is not all in after him in the coming weeks, I would back away as well. 

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, so I'm having trouble with that list. I wanted to see how many guys from the 2017 list of people with fastballs >95 mph got hurt, but then I notioced that Jose Urena was at the top of the 2017 list and I couldn't find any record of him going down for a full season injury. Jose Urena pitched 174 innings last year for the fish, had an average fastball velocity of 96.2, but he's not on your list, and that means I don't know what the issue is but there are people missing. 

He’s at 95.8 per Fangraphs so he falls just short.

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He’s at 95.8 per Fangraphs so he falls just short.

I'm looking at his page right now and in 2018 his vFA is 96.2, it was 95.8 in 2017. Were you giving 2018 numbers in that list? 

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm looking at his page right now and in 2018 his vFA is 96.2, it was 95.8 in 2017. Were you giving 2018 numbers in that list? 

Yes, go to leaders and filter FBv.  Shows up as 95.8 for 2018.

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

There’s no domestic pitcher on the market right now that is good enough to warrant a significant, market rate free agent deal by the White Sox right now. With Corbin gone, they’re all mid rotation starters benefitting from a thin pool. 

Eovaldi is being massively overrated by his postseason performance. If he puts up a 4 WAR season, it’ll be the first time. 

The only guy that makes sense to me is POSSIBLY Kikuchi, and only if the uncertainty that comes with him causes teams to be nervous enough to keep his price down. 

There will ALWAYS be a Nathan Eovaldi on the market available for a median free agent salary. We should get that guy when we are a mid-rotation starter away from being a real contender. Otherwise, you’re spending a ton of money with the only good outcome being that things have to go almost as well as they possibly can. 

This folks is wisdom right here.

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yes, go to leaders and filter FBv.  Shows up as 95.8 for 2018.

I did that, his numbers still show as 96.2, and the number of pitchers on the list with vFA above your cutoff of 95.8 doubles to 17 compared to what you showed above. Hell,  Reynaldo is on there at 95.9.

So yeah - your statement that only a handful of guys have velocity profiles like that, well that isn't quite how it is presented, out of that list there are 4-5 guys who will change teams this year so they're regularly available, and somehow you're getting data that is simply mixed up and missing people. 

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

He got non-tendered? I'm totally ok with that. I thought they'd hold him and try to trade him. 

Yup, I dunno what Oakland was thinking there, they still need arms pretty bad.  

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There will always be guys with Nathan Eovaldi’s stuff available for 4/$60M or so?

Here’s the top 10 average fastballs for pitchers with over 100 innings last year:

• 97.6 - Severino - 5.7 WAR
• 97.4 - Syndergaard - 4.2 WAR
• 97.2 - Eovaldi - 2.2 WAR
• 96.6 - Glasnow - 0.7 WAR
• 96.6 - Cole - 6.3 WAR
• 96.4 - Foltynewicz - 3.9 WAR
• 96.2 - Buehler - 3.3 WAR 
• 96.0 - deGromm - 8.8 WAR
• 95.9 - Wheeler - 4.1 WAR
• 95.8 - Snell - 4.6 WAR

Outside of Glasnow, that’s some seriously elite company.  How often do these guys reach free agency at 28 and what would the cost be?  I’m guessing Cole will command $200M+ next year.  Imagine the cost to acquire one of these guys via trade.  I strongly disagree with your assumption that these type of arms are always readily available in free agency and can be had for any reasonable sum of money.

And yes, I’m perfectly aware that Eovaldi has been a 3 WAR pitcher most of his career when healthy.  He also didn’t have a cutter back then and that’s totally changed his game.  Ignoring the playoffs, he was on pace for a 5 WAR season with the Red Sox.  I think in the Statcast era you have to accept that pitchers can completely reinvent themselves overnight.   So either we can default to his career numbers or assess his new repertoire & determine if maybe he’s a new, more impactful pitcher going forward.

Eovaldi is similar to those guys in terms of fastball velocity. Unfortunately he is not similar in terms of production. If he was, you wouldn’t be talking about 4/60, and the way this market is shaping up, you may not be talking about 4/60 anyway.

Eovaldi pitching really well for a couple months at a time isn’t new. Pitching well for six months at a time, though, would be. Is it possible? Sure. Maybe there is something sustainable to his new cutter, like you speculate. But it hasn’t happened yet, so it’s hard to call it likely.

And even if the performance is sustainable, I’d be shocked if anyone could put together an argument supporting his storied injury history. Two-tommy John club member. Shoulder and wrist problems to boot.

What we have here is a highly injury-prone veteran pitcher who has, a couple times, produced like #3 starter over the course of the season. You’re advocating outbidding several contenders, in a thin pitching market, on the hopes that he’ll both be better than he’s ever been in his career AND stay healthy for the first time in his career? To add to a 100 loss team, in hopes that he maintains this for several seasons so he can still be good when we need him?

 

Edited December 5, 20187 yr by Eminor3rd

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I did that, his numbers still show as 96.2, and the number of pitchers on the list with vFA above your cutoff of 95.8 doubles to 16 compared to what you showed above. Hell,  Reynaldo is on there at 95.9.

So yeah - your statement that only a handful of guys have velocity profiles like that, well that isn't quite how it is presented, out of that list there are 3-4 guys who will change teams this year so they're regularly available, and somehow you're getting data that is simply mixed up and missing people. 

Lol...I didn’t get any numbers mixed up, you simply pulled a different metric than I did.  And there was no cutoff, I just went with the top 10 prove a point, which is that Eovaldi has elite fastball velocity and most of the guys with that kind of stuff are amongst the best in baseball.  Use your list and go with the top 20 and how does my point change?  Guys that throw that hard are rare and typically pretty damn good.  You need to start reading my actual sentences and debate the underlying point instead of playing this “gotcha” game on numbers. 

If they're going to gamble on a FA pitcher, Eovaldi is the right guy, as he could just as easily end up severely outperforming his contract as he could be injury prone. If they want to sign a pitcher, this is the guy. Otherwise, forget it. Eovaldi could be a strong #2, a mid-back end starter, or injured a ton. All in all, it would be a decent gamble. 

Edited December 5, 20187 yr by Jack Parkman

5 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Eovaldi is similar to those guys in terms of fastball velocity. Unfortunately he is not similar in terms of production. If he was, you wouldn’t be talking about 4/60, and the way this market is shaping up, you may not be talking about 4/60 anyway.

Eovaldi pitching really well for a couple months at a time isn’t new. Pitching well for six months at a time, though, would be. Is it possible? Sure. Maybe there is something sustainable to his new cutter, like you speculate. But it hasn’t happened yet, so it’s hard to call it likely.

And even if the performance is sustainable, I’d be shocked if anyone could put together an argument supporting his storied injury history. Two-tommy John club member. Shoulder and wrist problems to boot.

What we have here is a highly injury-prone veteran pitcher who has, a couple times, produced like #3 starter over the course of the season. You’re advocating outbidding several contenders, in a thin pitching market, on the hopes that he’ll both be better than he’s ever been in his career AND stay healthy for the first time in his career? To add to a 100 loss team, in hopes that he maintains this for several seasons so he can still be good when we need him?

 

I can respect all your points here, although I think his track record is less meaningful in this day and age.  Look at how the Astros have unlocked greatness out of their pitchers.  Do you doubt that Cole & Morton are legit quality starters now?

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...I didn’t get any numbers mixed up, you simply pulled a different metric than I did.  And there was no cutoff, I just went with the top 10 prove a point, which is that Eovaldi has elite fastball velocity and most of the guys with that kind of stuff are amongst the best in baseball.  Use your list and go with the top 20 and how does my point change?  Guys that throw that hard are rare and typically pretty damn good.  You need to start reading my actual sentences and debate the underlying point instead of playing this “gotcha” game on numbers. 

At this point...they're usually pretty damn good, but they're not rare and they are regularly available and if you want one there's several on the list who will be free agents after 2020.

And I still have no idea what metric you're citing because it's not Fastball Velocity in 2018 from Fangraphs, because that's linked there and it's different than the numbers you gave.

There are numerous teams that see themselves as 1 top of the rotation guy  "away".  Most are on some sort of budget.  Taking the risk on Eovaldi because they just can't afford a top level starter (either they missed out on Corbin or they don't have the assets for Kluber/Thor) makes significantly more sense for those organizations than the White Sox.   

If the Sox make a move on a starter I predict it will be a wasteful signing more in the vain of an innings eater that might help them win 75 games in 2019.  This team is not a Gio Gonzalez away from making the playoffs, and the Gios of the world will be still out there when the Sox are ready.  

Edited December 5, 20187 yr by GREEDY
spelling is hard

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can respect all your points here, although I think his track record is less meaningful in this day and age.  Look at how the Astros have unlocked greatness out of their pitchers.  Do you doubt that Cole & Morton are legit quality starters now?

No, it happens for sure. You might be right about him. It just doesn’t happen all that often. And there’s just so much downside with pitchers like this, especially those with this kind of injury history. 

Im just wary about our payroll flexibility. We have a lot of room now, but you can eat through it quickly and it takes a while to clear up again. In 2020, wouldn’t you rather have the fresh 3 starter with upside that showed up right then, as opposed to the 30 year old version of today’s Eovaldi?

35 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

At this point...they're usually pretty damn good, but they're not rare and they are regularly available and if you want one there's several on the list who will be free agents after 2020.

And I still have no idea what metric you're citing because it's not Fastball Velocity in 2018 from Fangraphs, because that's linked there and it's different than the numbers you gave.

I’m pulling average FB velocity, I believe you’re pulling average 4 seamer.

I'd rather pay more and get someone like Sale or Bumgarner who are established top of the rotation guys than take a gigantic risk in Eovaldi who has already had 2 Tommy John surgeries and has never had a 200 inning season.

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I can respect all your points here, although I think his track record is less meaningful in this day and age.  Look at how the Astros have unlocked greatness out of their pitchers.  Do you doubt that Cole & Morton are legit quality starters now?

The problems I have with it, is it is going to take a lot of best case scenario for it to work out. Not only does he have to now be over injuries and be a better pitcher than he was during his prime years, you have to pay at least a season of tax , his salary plus the extra miles on his arm, to hopefully find out. Last year at this time no ones radar would have had Eovaldi on it for what he is going to be paid. I think the Sox should wait and see how it goes. Sign some pitchers, but there really aren’t any horses out there right now that are worth paying a ton. A year from now, hopefully the Sox will be in a position to put a contender on the field. That’s when you see what you need pitching wise. Go all out and sign a guy like Cole, or perhaps sign next year’s version of Eovaldi. There  always are a couple of guys who make themselves some money right before they become free agents.

The pitcher that I think people's concerns over are valid, but actually think everyone is wrong and will pitch well over his next contract is Dallas Keuchel.