Free Agency - How confident are you?

[Moan4Yoan]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

There's always  JD Martinez if he opts out. Red Sox are going to need pitching very badly and they are already having trouble with the luxury tax. Martinez walking might be doing them a favor.

He’s a Boras client as well.  I just don’t think the Sox want anything to do with dealing with Boras.  Also, they have Collins and Vaughn on the way so I don’t see the Sox spending big money on a DH/LF.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

There's always  JD Martinez if he opts out. Red Sox are going to need pitching very badly and they are already having trouble with the luxury tax. Martinez walking might be doing them a favor.

Assuming 2020 is another transition year, and they're expecting Abreu and Vaughn to be manning those two spots in 2021...Martinez at that salary is going to be a hard pass, especially as he ages and his numbers start to come down, but he's still (partially) expecting to get paid based on past production.

[Moan4Yoan]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The difference is I now have zero faith the Sox will sign Cole or Rendon.  I don’t even think Strasburg is likely.  After that, most guys will get contracts that we’re more than capable of offering.  The Sox offered Machado 8/$250M or essentially $31M/year.  Yes, it was stupid to think that was enough and it ultimately blew up in their faces, but the reality is they were ready to commit significant dollars to a single player.  To think they can’t sign guys who will be around $100M max is crazy to me.  The Sox have never had this kind of financial flexibility in recent memory and to cite past history as a reason to be skeptical doesn’t make much sense.  They should be one of the biggest spenders over the next two free agent classes full stop.

The Sox have yet to sign any player to a $100 million dollar contract.  I believe Abreu’s $68 million guaranteed is still the all time high.  You are correct that they have so much money available that they shouldn’t balk at signing a free agent to a contract over $100 million this offseason.  The bothersome thing is that Hahn and Kenny kept making the excuse that they wouldn’t sign any deals that could impact their ability to lock up their own in-house talent.  Even though we know it wouldn’t ruin their ability to still do this, I could definitely see this excuse being continually used going forward.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The difference is I now have zero faith the Sox will sign Cole or Rendon.  I don’t even think Strasburg is likely.  After that, most guys will get contracts that we’re more than capable of offering.  The Sox offered Machado 8/$250M or essentially $31M/year.  Yes, it was stupid to think that was enough and it ultimately blew up in their faces, but the reality is they were ready to commit significant dollars to a single player.  To think they can’t sign guys who will be around $100M max is crazy to me.  The Sox have never had this kind of financial flexibility in recent memory and to cite past history as a reason to be skeptical doesn’t make much sense.  They should be one of the biggest spenders over the next two free agent classes full stop.

It's more about the fact that pitching now will probably be the biggest need and Reinsdorf has always been particular frugal with handing out more than 3 years to a pitcher. I actually think they will sign positions players over pitchers or the pitchers just might be the kind you spend 3/$50M on. Now who that might be I don't know. Maybe he gets crazy and gives a 4/75 to a pitcher and a 3/60.

[Moan4Yoan]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It's more about the fact that pitching now will probably be the biggest need and Reinsdorf has always been particular frugal with handing out more than 3 years to a pitcher. I actually think they will sign positions players over pitchers or the pitchers just might be the kind you spend 3/$50M on. Now who that might be I don't know. Maybe he gets crazy and gives a 4/75 to a pitcher and a 3/60.

Corner outfielder (right fielder to be specific) is the obvious position player I expect them to acquire via free agency or trade.  If they truly believe in McCann and Collins they could pass on Grandal.  That leave DH left and I doubt they throw a lot of money at that spot.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Assuming 2020 is another transition year, and they're expecting Abreu and Vaughn to be manning those two spots in 2021...Martinez at that salary is going to be a hard pass, especially as he ages and his numbers start to come down, but he's still (partially) expecting to get paid based on past production.

I was just mentioning him a one of the bigger names out there. I have no idea who the Sox are likely to target. I'd actually be fine with Cory Dickerson instead of the big name OF's and Scooter Gennett as a bounce back guy in w/e capacity they would choose to play him.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

The Sox have yet to sign any player to a $100 million dollar contract.  I believe Abreu’s $68 million guaranteed is still the all time high.  You are correct that they have so much money available that they shouldn’t balk at signing a free agent to a contract over $100 million this offseason.  The bothersome thing is that Hahn and Kenny kept making the excuse that they wouldn’t sign any deals that could impact their ability to lock up their own in-house talent.  Even though we know it wouldn’t ruin their ability to still do this, I could definitely see this excuse being continually used going forward.

Yep, need to have money for Giolito and Moncada extensions...in the bank.  When those invariably don't materialize, oh well.  Fwiw, I think Giolito is likelier, but he's still going to have that natural desire to pitch closer to California where his family is (minus the one studying acting in Wales) and where the weather's so much better.

If all the positive changes is his performance were Don Cooper-alone driven, then you think sticking with the White Sox would make more sense, but that's not really the case where they have such a close relationship like a Buehrle.

[Jack Parkman]

Did any of you listen to the Hahn podcast from a few weeks ago? He did say that they were targeting premium pitchers this offseason but I wonder what he considers "premium." Does he mean premium for everyone or premium for the Sox? 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I was just mentioning him a one of the bigger names out there. I have no idea who the Sox are likely to target. I'd actually be fine with Cory Dickerson instead of the big name OF's and Scooter Gennett as a bounce back guy in w/e capacity they would choose to play him.

Right, the odds are low for Castellanos and Ozuna.

Puig, Dickerson, Domingo Santana, Gennett all make sense to certain degrees, but it's really going to put a lot of pressure on Robert defensively with some of these names we keep mentioning.

Wil Myers is out there for salary relief alone, and has the most upside depending on how much the Padres were willing to eat to get him off the roster (the other problem there is Taylor Trammell has been woeful, so they might choose to hold onto him for 2020.)

[South Side Fireworks Man]

5 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Corner outfielder (right fielder to be specific) is the obvious position player I expect them to acquire via free agency or trade.  If they truly believe in McCann and Collins they could pass on Grandal.  That leave DH left and I doubt they throw a lot of money at that spot.

They could've/should've signed Bryce Harper.   Now there really isn't a free agent outfielder who is as good a fit. 

They now have all this financial flexibility,  but whom are they realistically going to sign that will be a difference maker?

[South Side Fireworks Man]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Did any of you listen to the Hahn podcast from a few weeks ago? He did say that they were targeting premium pitchers this offseason but I wonder what he considers "premium." Does he mean premium for everyone or premium for the Sox? 

Hahn says a lot of things. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Right, the odds are low for Castellanos and Ozuna.

Puig, Dickerson, Domingo Santana, Gennett all make sense to certain degrees, but it's really going to put a lot of pressure on Robert defensively with some of these names we keep mentioning.

Wil Myers is out there for salary relief alone, and has the most upside depending on how much the Padres were willing to eat to get him off the roster (the other problem there is Taylor Trammell has been woeful, so they might choose to hold onto him for 2020.)

I think I actually heard or read that Dickerson has been fine as a defender this year if that means anything considering he hasn't played a lot. But he hit pretty well with Pittsburgh and is LH. I know I mention Gennett a lot and he's played even less than Dickerson but his numbers were pretty good when he was healthy with Cincy and is also LH . Might be a decent depth piece rather than a full time OF since he really hasn't played out there ever consistently but I'm sure he could play 1st, 2nd, 3rd , DH and OF if need be and there's always the possibility  he comes back strong next year and plays 2nd base full time if Madrigal falters.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think I actually heard or read that Dickerson has been fine as a defender this year if that means anything considering he hasn't played a lot. But he hit pretty well with Pittsburgh and is LH. I know I mention Gennett a lot and he's played even less than Dickerson but his numbers were pretty good when he was healthy with Cincy and is also LH . Might be a decent depth piece rather than a full time OF since he really hasn't played out there ever consistently but I'm sure he could play 1st, 2nd, 3rd , DH and OF if need be and there's always the possibility  he comes back strong next year and plays 2nd base full time if Madrigal falters.

So let's hope they don't get conservative and believe Leury Garcia can back up every position. 

We can all see them letting Sanchez finally go, which would be an even stronger argument for Gennett, in what would be something of a Derek Dietrich-like role with the White Sox.

Edited August 27, 2019 by caulfield12

[Moan4Yoan]

18 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Did any of you listen to the Hahn podcast from a few weeks ago? He did say that they were targeting premium pitchers this offseason but I wonder what he considers "premium." Does he mean premium for everyone or premium for the Sox? 

Here’s an article with Hahn’s quotes from two weeks ago:

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/what-we-learned-rick-hahns-appearance-white-sox-talk-podcast

Here are the two key quotes I noticed, other than all the excuse making.  Hahn apparently still thinks the top guaranteed contract offer isn’t the number one goal of the majority of top free agents, which is laughable and embarrassing at the same time.  He is like a lawyer trying to sell his BS to the naive and stupid.

"Going forward, I can’t promise you that we’re going to land the top, top free agent in any class. There’s guys who have grown up in certain areas, have gone to colleges in certain areas, they’ve married women from certain areas and they want to play in a certain area. You can’t overcome that with cash, you can’t overcome that with opportunity or strictly this team is prepared to win and you want to come win in this city because it’s going to be damn special when we do. So there are certain things that I can’t get around, or anyone with cash can’t get around, but I do fully intend, in my mind at least, that this organization is going to be continued to be viewed as, rightfully, a destination for premium talent.”

Signing a pitcher to a long-term deal

“Whatever remaining narratives that the White Sox will never do are going to exist until we friggin’ do it, so I get that. That’s fine. ‘The White Sox are never going to sign a top-of-the-market free agent.’ Well, we didn’t this offseason, so that one’s going to live another 12 months at least. Just like with the other ones, all I know is the focus is to put us in the best position to win multiple championships. The things that line up towards doing that are the things we’re going to pursue.

"I don’t expect people to believe that or accept that until it happens, so that’s fine."

Edited August 27, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, South Side Fireworks Man said:

They could've/should've signed Bryce Harper.   Now there really isn't a free agent outfielder who is as good a fit. 

They now have all this financial flexibility,  but whom are they realistically going to sign that will be a difference maker?

In the OF Ozuna is having a really good year so he could be a guy who makes a difference. But if Robert is good from the get go that solves CF for a long time. Sox just might do a plug and play with RF and hope some minor leaguers come on strong next year or maybe do a trade involving minor leaguers for someone we don't expect. This is kind of why I'm OK with Dickerson . His OPS+ is just as good as Ozuna's is just with less plate appearances and is LH which fits the Sox lineup better.

[Moan4Yoan]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

In the OF Ozuna is having a really good year so he could be a guy who makes a difference. But if Robert is good from the get go that solves CF for a long time. Sox just might do a plug and play with RF and hope some minor leaguers come on strong next year or maybe do a trade involving minor leaguers for someone we don't expect. This is kind of why I'm OK with Dickerson . His OPS+ is just as good as Ozuna's is just with less plate appearances and is LH which fits the Sox lineup better.

I’m warming up to this idea as well.  I don’t see the Sox paying Ozuna and Castellanos is a Boras guy.  Puig will likely be overpaid as well and is always looking to be a clubhouse clown.  Save some money with Dickerson for RF and spend the majority of your money on free agent pitchers and bullpen.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I like Dickerson, but he's more of a Left Fielder than a Right Fielder. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I’m warming up to this idea as well.  I don’t see the Sox paying Ozuna and Castellanos is a Boras guy.  Puig will likely be overpaid as well and is always looking to be a clubhouse clown.  Save some money with Dickerson for RF and spend the majority of your money on free agent pitchers and bullpen.

Right and if we get some good surprises like Rodon and Dunning coming back fairly strong from injury some time after the ASB it might give us some more bullpen  or starting options toward the end of the year. Heck who knows maybe some good things happen and all of a sudden Burdi and Hansen show signs of getting better. Or any number of bull pen guys in the minors become ready for prime time.

[Jack Parkman]

I'm pretty much resigned to them shopping in the Wheeler/Bumgarner range. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, South Side Fireworks Man said:

I like Dickerson, but he's more of a Left Fielder than a Right Fielder. 

That is true but if its just for a year and fairly inexpensive maybe he wouldn't be so bad out there . There is still the hope the Sox might do something creative to solve RF. Maybe someone unexpected gets non tendered. I can see someone like Brett Phillps getting non tendered by KC but he'd be like a LH Engel all field no hit .

Edited August 27, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Moan4Yoan]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm pretty much resigned to them shopping in the Wheeler/Bumgarner range. 

Still would be better than what we normally get come free agency.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Still would be better than what we normally get come free agency.

I was pretty high on Bumgarner before his 2nd half resurgence but I'm starting to agree that I'd be  mildly shocked if he left the NL.

[RTC]

Since I started this goat rodeo I should probably contribute, so here’s a couple outside the box ideas:

- there’s been talk at times about what TA would look like in the OF, and I’ve seen more speculation after some recent errors from him.  Didi Gregorious do anything for anybody?

- same line of thinking, but could Yoan handle RF or is that ridiculous to even consider?  Idea would be Rendon at 3B.

Both of these probably make no sense but in the name of generating discussion......

 

[BackDoorBreach]

6 minutes ago, RTC said:

Since I started this goat rodeo I should probably contribute, so here’s a couple outside the box ideas:

- there’s been talk at times about what TA would look like in the OF, and I’ve seen more speculation after some recent errors from him.  Didi Gregorious do anything for anybody?

- same line of thinking, but could Yoan handle RF or is that ridiculous to even consider?  Idea would be Rendon at 3B.

Both of these probably make no sense but in the name of generating discussion......

 

Yoan is not nearly as valuable at 3B than 2B.  I wouldn't mind Tim or Yo sliding to RF if that meant Rendon was in play.

But in the real world and not MLB The Show, asking Yo to play 3 different positions in 3 years is probably a lot to ask.  I'd be for it though with either player. 

[Moan4Yoan]

1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Yoan is not nearly as valuable at 3B than 2B.  I wouldn't mind Tim or Yo sliding to RF if that meant Rendon was in play.

But in the real world and not MLB The Show, asking Yo to play 3 different positions in 3 years is probably a lot to ask.  I'd be for it though with either player. 

Also, in the real world the Sox won’t be giving Rendon a record-setting deal when they already have Moncada at 3B and Madrigal set to take over 2B soon.  If they would be willing to do it, no one would care about asking Moncada to play 3 positions in 3 years. But we all know it’s a pipe dream.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Moan4Yoan