BackDoorBreach Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 If the Sox are going to go stop gappy in RF I'd want them to check in on Joc again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 43 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: The Twins fans and beat writers seem to think the Twins will go all in for the same pitchers we are looking at, as they only have 62 million on the books. They seem to want two of Stras, Bum, and Wheeler. Does anyone think the Twins will make a big push for these guys? The tier below Stras and Cole, sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Lester is 3rd amongst arms on that list in similarity score to Bumgarner; he has more correlation to Sabathia because Lester didnt miss time like Bum and CC did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Lester is 3rd amongst arms on that list in similarity score to Bumgarner; he has more correlation to Sabathia because Lester didnt miss time like Bum and CC did. Did you use post season innings as part of the total of IP or , not use it at all, or use it separately ? Would Lester be the closest comparison as a more recent example than the other 2 ahead of him ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Did you use post season innings as part of the total of IP or , not use it at all, or use it separately ? Would Lester be the closest comparison as a more recent example than the other 2 ahead of him ? No playoff innings on that export. I'd have to link a few data sets. I can do it at a later date. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggins Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 3 hours ago, soxfan2014 said: The tier below Stras and Cole, sure. Honestly could see them making a run at either or even both those guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: No playoff innings on that export. I'd have to link a few data sets. I can do it at a later date. Thanks was just wondering. I have thought that playoff innings are crucial barometers and need to be considered when evaluating and comparing pitchers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Thanks was just wondering. I have thought that playoff innings are crucial barometers and need to be considered when evaluating and comparing pitchers. Yeah, it still impacts the data the following year, and we're all aware of the innings personally so we can evaluate based on our knowledge. Ideally they'd all be in there though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Yeah, it still impacts the data the following year, and we're all aware of the innings personally so we can evaluate based on our knowledge. Ideally they'd all be in there though. It was very good of you to take the time to do all that work especially considering you don't think that Bumgarner will consider an AL team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Guessing it been asked or posited earlier but at risk of being repetitive, does anyone have an idea of contract terms (years and AAV) it would take to nab Cole? Would 6yrs/$35M be in the range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Flash said: Guessing it been asked or posited earlier but at risk of being repetitive, does anyone have an idea of contract terms (years and AAV) it would take to nab Cole? Would 6yrs/$35M be in the range? Go longer. David Price got 7 years, $217 million, any bid less than that should be considered a waste of Scott Boras's time. Beat that total value and you're somewhere in the ballpark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Flash said: Guessing it been asked or posited earlier but at risk of being repetitive, does anyone have an idea of contract terms (years and AAV) it would take to nab Cole? Would 6yrs/$35M be in the range? I think 7 for $250 gets it done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Tony said: I think you’re way too low, given the suitors at play. Who do you think the suitors might be? Houston? Angels? Yankees? Dodgers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Flash said: Who do you think the suitors might be? Houston? Angels? Yankees? Dodgers? I think Houston is out, they're already sitting close to $210 million this offseason without him, signing him puts them into Boston's luxury Tax territory. I think the other 3 you mention are at least competitors, and I think there will be some surprise teams that come in (a-la the Diamondbacks and Greinke). The Dodgers dropping out of the playoffs so early could definitely motivate them to make a splash somewhere this offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I think Houston is out, they're already sitting close to $210 million this offseason without him, signing him puts them into Boston's luxury Tax territory. I think the other 3 you mention are at least competitors, and I think there will be some surprise teams that come in (a-la the Diamondbacks and Greinke). The Dodgers dropping out of the playoffs so early could definitely motivate them to make a splash somewhere this offseason. In my non-expert opinion I'd say theres a 95% chance he stays in Houston (if they win the WS) or goes to the Angels. Edited October 11, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: In my non-expert opinion I'd say theres a 95% chance he stays in Houston (if they win the WS) or goes to the Angels. FWIW, here's the Astros owner already saying "eh". Quote Astros owner Jim Crane said on Monday the team "may make a run" at re-signing Gerrit Cole, but intimated he would rather stay below baseball's competitive balance tax... "We'll see where we end up after the year. We may make a run at it. We're not sure yet," Crane said. "We're going to wait and see what else unfolds and who else is going to stay on the team. "There's a lot of moves that Jeff (Luhnow) will probably make in the offseason. We're going to keep a very close eye on it, communicate and see where that ends up. He's had a great year. He's young and he's likely going to command a big salary." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) I really hope they don't drag this out. 7/250 is beyond fair. That should be close to our max offer. Let him have option years if he wants. "We don't do options" is incredibly dumb. Edited October 11, 2019 by BackDoorBreach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: I really hope they don't drag this out. 7/250 is beyond fair. That should be close to our max offer. Let him have option years if he wants. "We don't do options" is incredibly dumb. I think that's somewhere close to a reasonable guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: FWIW, here's the Astros owner already saying "eh". Yeah, I heard him say last week that if the WS is won and they capture those revenue streams it opens up the possibility of Cole returning. They may just be nonsense but I found it interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: I really hope they don't drag this out. 7/250 is beyond fair. That should be close to our max offer. Let him have option years if he wants. "We don't do options" is incredibly dumb. I wouldn't give any pitcher 7 years 250 million. Thats a hell of a lot of risk for a position as volatile as SP. Injuries and aging are a dangerous thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said: I wouldn't give any pitcher 7 years 250 million. Thats a hell of a lot of risk for a position as volatile as SP. Injuries and aging are a dangerous thing. You get insurance on deals like that to hedge it. He's going to command something near that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: You get insurance on deals like that to hedge it. He's going to command something near that. Yeah, and theres just too much information that says it's a likely net loss. Insurance isn't free, FTR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said: You get insurance on deals like that to hedge it. He's going to command something near that. More than that - a lot of the pitchers in that price range have been pretty good bets, and their deals have either worked out or been tradeable. Greinke and Verlander (tradeable), Kershaw - Dodgers even brought him back after an opt-out, Scherzer, Strasburg (optout), Lester, Sabathia, Hamels. About the worst ones have been Price and Tanaka, and Price was key to a world series and is probably still movable if Boston throws something in alogn with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: More than that - a lot of the pitchers in that price range have been pretty good bets, and their deals have either worked out or been tradeable. Greinke and Verlander (tradeable), Kershaw - Dodgers even brought him back after an opt-out, Scherzer, Strasburg (optout), Lester, Sabathia, Hamels. About the worst ones have been Price and Tanaka, and Price was key to a world series and is probably still movable if Boston throws something in alogn with it. Price, Tanaka, hamels and Sabathia would be horrible outcomes for the sox at 7-250. Scherzer and Verlander are not the norm. Lester got half that amount - his back end is bad too, and getting worse. Kershaw and Stras really didn't hit free agency so they're not great comps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackDoorBreach Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Throw in a club and player option then if he wants it. The way he has pitched the last 2 years he would be worth every penny. Especially taking his pitching lab disgnostics reports and sharing that with our young pitchers. He had TJ already didn't he? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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