2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The Yankees also have a bunch of money coming off after the '20 season in Tanaka ($23M), Ellsbury ($21M), LeMaheiu ($12M) and possibly Happ ($17M but has vesting option).  They can easily backload any contract because they're the freakin Yankees.  

Backloading contracts doesn’t help with the luxury tax.

https://theathletic.com/1306612/

Wheeler makes for an interesting free agent case, given that his production has almost exclusively occurred within the last two seasons. Wheeler has been worth 8.9 wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) since the start of 2018 — a mark that aligns him with pitchers such as Patrick Corbin, Jon Lester and Johnny Cueto (along w/ Hamels, Cain, Zimmerman, Greinke) when they hit the open market. Pitchers who produced between eight and 10 wins above replacement over the two seasons prior to hitting free agency have averaged just less than $23 million per season in their next deal. Seven of the eight received nine-figure contracts.

Another two comps here are CJ Wilson and Charlie Morton...with Cain, Zimmerman and Wilson arguably the three biggest disappointments.

...

Shortening the contract probably does add a little bit to the average annual value. A deal for three years and $54 million or four years and $64 million would seem to make sense. Five years for $80 million — a deal signed seven winters ago by Aníbal Sánchez with statistics vaguely similar to Wheeler — isn’t out of the question.

So, in the end...$100-115 million is the highest possible number Wheeler will go for...whereas Cole is at $250-280 million and Strasburg at $150-180 million.  Someone below guesses $120-130 million.  Also seems many Mets’ fans are counting on Nimmo returning to form in 2020, and Céspedes not sniffing the field.
 

The scariest prediction on Wheeler, that he blossoms with the Astros and replaces Cole at less than half the price.  OTOH, I guess doing that for the Twins would be even worse...because the White a Sox can hardly think about a World Series yet.

Wheeler, JDM/Grandal, Moustakas and a RH reliever...get ‘er done!!!   Go with a $5-8 million guy in RF for one year, utilizing the savings from Yolmer.  Or a second/third tier starter who falls through the cracks and becomes undervalued.

 

 

If they let Wheeler walk due to CBT reasons, then it'll just be reason 843 why the Wilpons should have been forced to sell the team years ago. Wheeler's potential contract is perfectly reasonable; he doesn't have nearly the mileage on his arm that most 29 year olds do, and if this is supposedly a win now team you don't let a starter of his quality walk because of the CBT in NY. It simply cannot happen. 

Mike F.

Oct 22, 12:36pm

7 likes

 

The stroman trade was all you needed to know.. he is the replacement for wheeler. I would bet that it’s a short terms savvy/equal value move for the Mets, but as usual instead of building from success and rolling with a better rotation all next season, they will pinch pennies, decry that wheeler may break down in a few years.... and watch stroman only make 20 starts... then blame injuries for another 85 win season.
Watch him go to Atlanta and replace Dallas this offseason and help them win the division for the next few years....or replace Cole and win 20 For the astros  

Brian F.

Oct 22, 12:44pm

 

 

I think you're low on the contract forecast. He'll wind up with 5 for 120 or 6 for 130, something like that. At either level the Mets should be in, if they're not going after Rendon (which they wont despite that it would hurt one of their main rivals). If they pass on Wheeler then they need a veteran 5th starter so that Lockett is only the inevitable 6th starter that teams need (if not 7 or 8). If so, they must continue to build their offense and start by benching Cano. No one's talking about how fortunate they were with their offense: every player but Nimmo is likely to be worse in 2020. And that offense didnt sniff the top 5. If you want to be a playoff team you need to add a big bat.

Edited November 2, 20196 yr by caulfield12

Wheeler's 2019 numbers against LH hitters were very pedestrian:

AVG .275   OBP .341  SLG .434 

He was better in 2018, against LH hitters, but prior to that, he was worse.

Good luck when facing division rival, LH hitters such as Lindor, Ramirez, Santana, or Kepler, Polanco and Rosario.

I just don't see the point in adding another middle of the rotation starter, or even a #2. Get an Ace, or don't bother wasting the money. If Wheeler would cost $18 to 20 million a year, and Strasburg would cost $30 million per year, I know which one I'd prefer, if I'm serious about contending.

25 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Wheeler's 2019 numbers against LH hitters were very pedestrian:

AVG .275   OBP .341  SLG .434 

He was better in 2018, against LH hitters, but prior to that, he was worse.

Good luck when facing division rival, LH hitters such as Lindor, Ramirez, Santana, or Kepler, Polanco and Rosario.

I just don't see the point in adding another middle of the rotation starter, or even a #2. Get an Ace, or don't bother wasting the money. If Wheeler would cost $18 to 20 million a year, and Strasburg would cost $30 million per year, I know which one I'd prefer, if I'm serious about contending.

The odds of them even being “a part of the conversation” for either pitcher are pretty negligible.

From 2016-18 for Wheeler, a 752 ops against LHB and a 638 vs RHB.  Obviously, right handed batters are getting more looks, 56% to 44%.

2019, 635 ops vs. RHB, very consistent.   58.5 to 41.5 ratio RHB vs. LHB.

Strasburg is averaging 27.75 starts per season over the last eight years.    Which means he misses about three weeks per season on average.  
 

He had 245 ip in 2019, an 88% increase over 2018.   That’s a huge red flag.   He’s also a long ways removed from his first TJ surgery, and three years older than Wheeler.

He’s also only averaged 160 IP per season over the last five years, including 36 IP these past 2019 playoffs.

 

Career-wise, almost twice as many IP for Strasburg compared to Wheeler, roughly 750 vs. a little shy of 1500.

Yet Strasburg will likely get TWICE as much per season with a deal likely 1-2 years shorter than Wheeler’s.  You’re paying an extra $30-40 million just for this past season, which is already an overpay since it’s Free Agency and premium contracts are inflated.

 

Edited November 4, 20196 yr by caulfield12

Kiley McDaniel at FG predicted 4/$68M for Wheeler.  While I think he will beat that, this proves the $130-$150M talk was in fact crazy.

 

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

The odds of them even being “a part of the conversation” for either pitcher are pretty negligible.

From 2016-18 for Wheeler, a 752 ops against LHB and a 638 vs RHB.  Obviously, right handed batters are getting more looks, 56% to 44%.

2019, 635 ops vs. RHB, very consistent.   58.5 to 41.5 ratio RHB vs. LHB.

Strasburg is averaging 27.75 starts per season over the last eight years.    Which means he misses about three weeks per season on average.  
 

He had 245 ip in 2019, an 88% increase over 2018.   That’s a huge red flag.   He’s also a long ways removed from his first TJ surgery, and three years older than Wheeler.

He’s also only averaged 160 IP per season over the last five years, including 36 IP these past 2019 playoffs.

 

Career-wise, almost twice as many IP for Strasburg compared to Wheeler, roughly 750 vs. a little shy of 1500.

Yet Strasburg will likely get TWICE as much per season with a deal likely 1-2 years shorter than Wheeler’s.  You’re paying an extra $30-40 million just for this past season, which is already an overpay since it’s Free Agency and premium contracts are inflated.

 

I agree that Cole is not at all realistic. However, if the second best free agent pitcher is also not feasible, then I'd pass on acquiring a free agent pitcher and just hope that the youngsters reach their potential. I can't get excited about adding an arm from the second tier of this free agent class. The Sox have enough candidates for middle rotation arms, which might develop into top of the rotation quality pitchers. I don't see Wheeler as a good bet to be an Ace, or a #2. 

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Kiley McDaniel at FG predicted 4/$68M for Wheeler.  While I think he will beat that, this proves the $130-$150M talk was in fact crazy.

 

Machado and Harper had markets that wouldn't pay more than 250 million until..... they got paid 300 and 330 million. 

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

Machado and Harper had markets that wouldn't pay more than 250 million until..... they got paid 300 and 330 million. 

Going into last offseason, the expectation was that Machado and Harper would both beat $300 million.  

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Kiley McDaniel at FG predicted 4/$68M for Wheeler.  While I think he will beat that, this proves the $130-$150M talk was in fact crazy.

 

If McDaniel is correct, that validates my assessment that Wheeler is not a top of the rotation starter. Doesn't $17 Million per year suggest that he is merely a #3? The issue should be more about finding a pitcher, or two, who can be difference makers and Wheeler doesn't seem to qualify.

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If McDaniel is correct, that validates my assessment that Wheeler is not a top of the rotation starter. Doesn't $17 Million per year suggest that he is merely a #3? The issue should be more about finding a pitcher, or two, who can be difference makers and Wheeler doesn't seem to qualify.

I don't think anyone really thinks Wheeler is a "top of the rotation" pitcher.  He is a solid #3 on a team with a good rotation, obviously better on shitty teams.  He would be a nice rotation piece on all 30 clubs, but this guy isn't an elite starter by any means, and not sure anyone here thinks that.  

If you're only interested in signing top of the top pitchers, you're going to be throwing Ross Detwilers and Odrisamer Despaignes for a loooooooooooooong time. 

16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Going into last offseason, the expectation was that Machado and Harper would both beat $300 million.  

Yep, and then the market crashed and people were talking 200-250 million. Then the market uncrashed. The point I'm making is these prices will be driven by how many teams want a guy, and desperation. Wheeler is gonna have a huge market for teams who don't want to pay Cole 250 million. There will be 5 teams bidding for him and his price may soar over market expectation. I would love to get him at 4-68 but if we really want him, we better be prepared for this thing to shoot up. 

6 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Yep, and then the market crashed and people were talking 200-250 million. Then the market uncrashed. The point I'm making is these prices will be driven by how many teams want a guy, and desperation. Wheeler is gonna have a huge market for teams who don't want to pay Cole 250 million. There will be 5 teams bidding for him and his price may soar over market expectation. I would love to get him at 4-68 but if we really want him, we better be prepared for this thing to shoot up. 

I do think last year was instructive that players, elite ones, DO have the ability to create a market. Should Harper have really been able to get a $330 mil deal with only one real team? No, but it’s what it took to sign him and team believed in that number.

26 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think anyone really thinks Wheeler is a "top of the rotation" pitcher.  He is a solid #3 on a team with a good rotation, obviously better on shitty teams.  He would be a nice rotation piece on all 30 clubs, but this guy isn't an elite starter by any means, and not sure anyone here thinks that.  

A solid number #3 starter is a valuable pitcher, something we definitely could use more of. He's in our price range and still has some upside. A three/four year deal would not break the bank

37 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If McDaniel is correct, that validates my assessment that Wheeler is not a top of the rotation starter. Doesn't $17 Million per year suggest that he is merely a #3? The issue should be more about finding a pitcher, or two, who can be difference makers and Wheeler doesn't seem to qualify.

Kiley literally goes on to say in his piece that of all the starters available, the only one he views as capable of outperforming Cole and Stras next year Is wheeler. Wheelers injury history is what he believes will suppress his market.

52 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Kiley McDaniel at FG predicted 4/$68M for Wheeler.  While I think he will beat that, this proves the $130-$150M talk was in fact crazy.

 

I mean, not really. Kiley projected Corbin at 5 years 90 million and he got 6 years 140 million. 

41 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Going into last offseason, the expectation was that Machado and Harper would both beat $300 million.  

You're citing this while also citing FG's as the barometer setter - FG's did not have manny exceeding 275 million.

46 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If McDaniel is correct, that validates my assessment that Wheeler is not a top of the rotation starter. Doesn't $17 Million per year suggest that he is merely a #3? The issue should be more about finding a pitcher, or two, who can be difference makers and Wheeler doesn't seem to qualify.

literally NO ONE has said he is a TOR starter .....

42 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think anyone really thinks Wheeler is a "top of the rotation" pitcher.  He is a solid #3 on a team with a good rotation, obviously better on shitty teams.  He would be a nice rotation piece on all 30 clubs, but this guy isn't an elite starter by any means, and not sure anyone here thinks that.  

I think it's very possible he becomes a TOR starter. It's also possible his shoulder gives out and you only get 2 years out of him. 

Theres risk but his ceiling is certainly that of a TOR arm. I wouldnt be shocked to see Houston in on him.

Just now, cjgalloway said:

literally NO ONE has said he is a TOR starter .....

According to fWAR, Wheeler has been the 9th best starter in baseball since the start of 2018; I'd say that's TOR talent.

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think it's very possible he becomes a TOR starter. It's also possible his shoulder gives out and you only get 2 years out of him. 

Theres risk but his ceiling is certainly that of a TOR arm. I wouldnt be shocked to see Houston in on him.

I think given the lack of quality FA starting pitching, Wheeler is a strong candidate to get paid after Cole/Strasburg. He's going to get at least $80 million, and potentially far more if teams are willing to go five years. 

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think it's very possible he becomes a TOR starter. It's also possible his shoulder gives out and you only get 2 years out of him. 

Theres risk but his ceiling is certainly that of a TOR arm. I wouldnt be shocked to see Houston in on him.

Me too, Houston has been my 2. landing spot for him.  I have us at 1

1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

Me too, Houston has been my 2. landing spot for him.  I have us at 1

Great spin rate on his offspeed with an electric elevated 4 seamer - guy was built for Houston.

4 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Me too, Houston has been my 2. landing spot for him.  I have us at 1

Would have to imagine Wheeler is the Sox FA pitcher of choice, along with likely Grandal on the position player side. Then again, they could cheap out and we are way off.