17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yeah but would you trust him for 4 years as opposed to Odo for 1-2 years?

What makes you think odorizzi will be 1 year (esp if he turns down qualifying offer), and Bumgarner is only 30 compared to Odorizzi's 29, this isn't like Hamels vs. Odorizzi.

44 minutes ago, bmags said:

What makes you think odorizzi will be 1 year (esp if he turns down qualifying offer), and Bumgarner is only 30 compared to Odorizzi's 29, this isn't like Hamels vs. Odorizzi.

Odorizzi is a pretty poor fit to make 15 starts at the Cell.  He's also obviously (as you said) going to be looking for a longer term deal if he rejects the QO.  But, Odorizzo, Abreu and Smith seem like the guys that could get just hammered in the market with a QO attached this offseason.  I ultimately think he takes the 1 year deal and stays with the Twins, or works out a longer term deal to stay with the Twins.  There is mutual interest there.

Wheeler will have too many bidders it seems.

1 hour ago, pcq said:

Wheeler will have too many bidders it seems.

That is a big concern of mine. His market will be at least 5-10 teams deep looking for affordable rotation help. 

The more I look at it, the more I think he gets at least 5/100 million

A good question to pose to fans on this thread, how much would you be willing to offer Wheeler to sign? How many guaranteed years and dollars? 

Beyond 5/100 I'm not sure he's worth it

Edited November 12, 20196 yr by steveno89

2 hours ago, bmags said:

What makes you think odorizzi will be 1 year (esp if he turns down qualifying offer), and Bumgarner is only 30 compared to Odorizzi's 29, this isn't like Hamels vs. Odorizzi.

Bumgarner is a Felix Hernandez 30.

He debuted at 20, and has been a horse since 21. Lotta miles on the arm and the decline in stuff reflects it. 

11 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Bumgarner is a Felix Hernandez 30.

He debuted at 20, and has been a horse since 21. Lotta miles on the arm and the decline in stuff reflects it. 

I already did this exercise. It’s not the predictor people think. And his spin rate increased along with velo this year. CC Sabathia had a very similar career, and while his 30s weren’t incredible they were productive.

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I already did this exercise. It’s not the predictor people think. And his spin rate increased along with velo this year. CC Sabathia had a very similar career, and while his 30s weren’t incredible they were productive.

CC was wayyy better when he hit FA than MB is now. He was coming off a 7 win season, sub-2 FIP

This years FA market for SP sucks for the white sox.

They have no shot at the good ones - Stras + Cole.

Bumgarner, Keuchel are NOT who we should be going for (old, not going to be good in AL, waste of money, we will probably sign Keuchel).

Wheeler, the one interesting guy, is going to get a massive contract that takes us out and doesn't make sense.

We need a SP.

We won't get a proper one.

That sucks. 

1 minute ago, iWiN4PreP said:

This years FA market for SP sucks for the white sox.

They have no shot at the good ones - Stras + Cole.

Bumgarner, Keuchel are NOT who we should be going for (old, not going to be good in AL, waste of money, we will probably sign Keuchel).

Wheeler, the one interesting guy, is going to get a massive contract that takes us out and doesn't make sense.

We need a SP.

We won't get a proper one.

That sucks. 

Define what “massive contract” you see Wheeler getting.

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Define what “massive contract” you see Wheeler getting.

Massive contract relative to what he's performed, his risk, etc. I think he will be overpaid. I don't know what that means off the top of my head and I don't really want to do that analysis right now. Some team will pay him an amount that makes us go "wow, well, no problem." I'd love Wheeler, I just think he's going to valued highly due to his young age and the flashes of brilliance he's shown, and last years trade market had many teams looking in on him. 

There really isn’t a year when good starting pitchers are cheap.

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

There really isn’t a year when good starting pitchers are cheap.

I'd be fine with spending big on Cole/Strasburg, but the W'sox won't do that. Hell, I'd give Cole whatever he wanted. That's fine. 

Wheeler needs to be a decent price for me to go after, if he was, I'd certainly be on it as I love me some Wheeler. 

Probably a little North of 5/100 since there are a lot of teams in on him.

13 minutes ago, Tony said:

Whoa whoa whoa.

What’s all this “we” talk? 

You told us all you were done as a White Sox fan, and jumping to the Padres. Back so soon? 

Nice of you to remember :). I wouldn't call myself a W'sox fan, but this board is the best board for offseason talk. Padres didn't do it for me, I ended up more of a Rays fan, but honestly, I don't really follow any personal team right now. Just enjoying MLB the Show. 

1 hour ago, iWiN4PreP said:

This years FA market for SP sucks for the white sox.

They have no shot at the good ones - Stras + Cole.

Bumgarner, Keuchel are NOT who we should be going for (old, not going to be good in AL, waste of money, we will probably sign Keuchel).

Wheeler, the one interesting guy, is going to get a massive contract that takes us out and doesn't make sense.

We need a SP.

We won't get a proper one.

That sucks. 

Nothing is guaranteed but I hope you are wrong.

I wrote about Zack Wheeler today if anyone is interested: https://southsidehitpen.com/2019/11/12/picks-to-click-free-agent-starters/

5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I wrote about Zack Wheeler today if anyone is interested: https://southsidehitpen.com/2019/11/12/picks-to-click-free-agent-starters/

Awesome write-up Jimmy!  If the big two are off the market, Wheeler is without question the next best option and I hope they prioritize him over the bigger name in Bumgarner.

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Awesome write-up Jimmy!  If the big two are off the market, Wheeler is without question the next best option and I hope they prioritize him over the bigger name in Bumgarner.

Any fans here willing to go beyond 5/100 to sign Wheeler? It's a valid question to ask

21 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Any fans here willing to go beyond 5/100 to sign Wheeler? It's a valid question to ask

Yeah I would.  I would not do anything close to 5/150 but if you have to get up to 5/115 or so yeah.

14 hours ago, bmags said:

There really isn’t a year when good starting pitchers are cheap.

Yep.

This year's crop is about as good an opportunity as you're going to get with an ace or two on the market and a bunch of other interesting options.  

3 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Any fans here willing to go beyond 5/100 to sign Wheeler? It's a valid question to ask

I'd do around 5/$110M if need be.

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I'd do around 5/$110M if need be.

I would assume the Astros will put on a big push for him to replace Cole.  So Sox will have to overbid them since they will be an attractive destination unless Wheeler wants the spotlight. 

51 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I would assume the Astros will put on a big push for him to replace Cole.  So Sox will have to overbid them since they will be an attractive destination unless Wheeler wants the spotlight. 

Could be mistaken, but aren't the Astros pressed right up against the lux tax?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/

Sure they could continue to go over, but few teams have been willing to strap themselves like that. 

Sox should not greatly overpay to land targeted free agents, and should have plenty of money to spread around in free agency. 

Edited November 13, 20196 yr by steveno89

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

Could be mistaken, but aren't the Astros pressed right up against the lux tax?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/

Sure they could continue to go over, but few teams have been willing to strap themselves like that. 

Sox should not greatly overpay to land targeted free agents, and should have plenty of money to spread around in free agency. 

They are but they would only sign a Wheeler type if Cole goes. So they start $13 Mil less and Reddick's $13 MIl  comes off next year. They do get a break in that Greinke is paid by AZ.  I think Wheeler can get 5/$100 even though  he has had an up/down career w injuries. 

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I'd do around 5/$110M if need be.

That’s about what has been in my head, too.