On 11/12/2019 at 2:44 PM, Eminor3rd said:

Bumgarner is a Felix Hernandez 30.

He debuted at 20, and has been a horse since 21. Lotta miles on the arm and the decline in stuff reflects it. 

I know in late June his velocity was better last year than it was at any time the last 2 year. It wasn't  just  the  mileage ,he had that dirt bike accident 2 years ago.  I don't know what his final stats looked like but he might not be as bad as you think.

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know in late June his velocity was better last year than it was at any time the last 2 year. It wasn't  just  the  mileage ,he had that dirt bike accident 2 years ago.  I don't know what his final stats looked like but he might not be as bad as you think.

He didn't have a bad season. Most of his stats were around his career norms with exception to HR/9, his ERA, and xFIP. I would tend to lean towards the opinion his best days are behind him - especially if he leave the NL.

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know in late June his velocity was better last year than it was at any time the last 2 year. It wasn't  just  the  mileage ,he had that dirt bike accident 2 years ago.  I don't know what his final stats looked like but he might not be as bad as you think.

I don't think he's bad, I just don't think he's a TOR arm at all. I think he's a good 3/4 that is going to want to be paid like he's just a notch behind Cole/Strasburg.

For example, Szymborski ran some projections for him in a  neutral park, and they looked like a league average pitcher who is hurt by homers: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-17-8-million-answer/

Quote

 

Madison Bumgarner
Madison Bumgarner was an obvious recipient of a qualifying offer, but he’s worth noting separately due to the likely consequences it will have for his next contract. I didn’t include Bumgarner’s projection in the previous piece, but given that Steamer just came out with a 2.1 WAR forecast for the left-hander in 2020, it’s probably worth demonstrating that Steamer’s not an outlier:

 

ZiPS Projections – Madison Bumgarner

Year	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WAR
2020	9	8	4.13	30	30	180.7	175	31	41	171	100	2.3
2021	8	7	4.23	28	28	166.0	166	29	38	152	98	1.9
2022	8	7	4.35	27	27	158.0	161	28	36	142	95	1.6
2023	7	7	4.36	25	25	145.0	148	26	33	130	95	1.5
2024	6	6	4.46	22	22	130.7	135	24	31	118	93	1.2
2025	5	6	4.60	20	20	115.7	121	23	28	104	90	0.9

This projection is for a neutral park, which matters for Bumgarner more than most. Bumgarner is more of a fly baller now than he was during his best years and doesn’t throw particularly hard, which is risky in a park that isn’t death to home runs. For his career, Bumgarner has a 58% higher HR/9 on the road than at home and with nearly a decade in the majors, that’s enough of a sample to declare it a concern instead of mere noise. ZiPS doesn’t explicitly use home/road data for individual players but it does see Bumgarner’s tendencies, valuing him at about 0.7 WAR per season more in San Francisco than in a neutral park. When you take the value of the draft pick into account, I’m not sure that Bumgarner is an obvious choice over Wade Miley given otherwise identical contracts.

 

 

Edited November 14, 20196 yr by Eminor3rd

Wade Miley it is...

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Wade Miley it is...

Would not hate Miley on a one year deal at all to be our 5th starter

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Wade Miley it is...

He's the only player I have them signing in the MLBTR contest.  I had them signing Hamels until he said he would sign a 1 yr deal to play on a contender.  I just couldn't put them with any of the top guys.  I hope I'm wrong. 

He won't take this, but I honestly wouldn't be upset to see a deal at a 3/58-62MM deal for Bumgarner.  Within 2 years, 20M/yr will be #3 type money, if it already isn't there now.  Essentially you are betting on MadBum to produce like a #3 over the life of the contract.

 

there goes one possible back up plan

Just now, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

there goes one possible back up plan

Thank god. I wanted nothing to do with Odorizzi.

2 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

 

there goes one possible back up plan

He accepted the QO for a reason. 

3 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

He accepted the QO for a reason. 

Very surprised at the gamble. If dude tears his elbow...

Hopefully he regresses and Twins now have less payroll to use.  I wonder how this affects their offseason plan? 

3 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Very surprised at the gamble. If dude tears his elbow...

Hopefully he regresses and Twins now have less payroll to use.  I wonder how this affects their offseason plan? 

The Twins wanted Odorizzi back.  4 of their 5 SP were free agents.

Now they have Berrios, Odorizzi and Graterol, though Graterol isn't going to be able to be in the rotation the full year.  They still need at least 2 more SP.  

I'm glad Twins got him.  Maybe now they'll focus more on the middle tier SP and not on the top 3.  

1 hour ago, SonofaRoache said:

He accepted the QO for a reason. 

He's betting on himself. There are a lot less SP free agents to compete with on the market next year.

Odorizzi off the market really is going to help Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu and Keuchel...even Hamels, as he's now the 5th best available option after Cole with almost everyone needing pitching to one degree or another.

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Odorizzi off the market really is going to help Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu and Keuchel...even Hamels, as he's now the 5th best available option after Cole with almost everyone needing pitching to one degree or another.

What does it really change though?  One of the most pitching needy teams added a pitcher.  It’s not like some team like the Marlins got him and fucked up the whole supply/demand equation here.

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What does it really change though?  One of the most pitching needy teams added a pitcher.  It’s not like some team like the Marlins got him and fucked up the whole supply/demand equation here.

We keep saying that...but 50% of the available projected options from a year ago signing extensions, staying with their teams through QO (Odorizzi), etc., it takes YET ONE more option off the table.

If the same number of contending teams and quasi-contending teams are NOW chasing five pitchers instead of six (with Wheeler as the obviously headliner of the second tier)...why wouldn't their agents be in a better position in terms of leverage?

Are half of the teams automatically now magically going to skip over those five pitchers to the third tier if the asks rise by 10-25%?  Pretty unlikely...unless you're a mid-market/limited payroll team like the Rays or A's.

Edited November 15, 20196 yr by caulfield12

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

We keep saying that...but 50% of the available projected options from a year ago signing extensions, staying with their teams through QO (Odorizzi), etc., it takes YET ONE more option off the table.

If the same number of contending teams and quasi-contending teams are NOW chasing five pitchers instead of six (with Wheeler as the obviously headliner of the second tier)...why wouldn't their agents be in a better position in terms of leverage?

Are half of the teams automatically now magically going to skip over those five pitchers to the third tier if the asks rise by 10-25%?  Pretty unlikely...unless you're a mid-market/limited payroll team like the Rays or A's.

Wheeler might have the most competitive market of any free agent this offseason because every contender could use pitching and he's going to be far more affordable than Cole/Stras. I wonder if he can parlay this into a nice 5-6 year deal? 

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

Wheeler might have the most competitive market of any free agent this offseason because every contender could use pitching and he's going to be far more affordable than Cole/Stras. I wonder if he can parlay this into a nice 5-6 year deal? 

See: Patrick Corbin.

13 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Wheeler might have the most competitive market of any free agent this offseason because every contender could use pitching and he's going to be far more affordable than Cole/Stras. I wonder if he can parlay this into a nice 5-6 year deal? 

Easily.

Therein lies the point.

Wheeler bumps from expected 4/$80 to 5 and even 6 year deals.

Hahn then turns around and argues that money in Year 5/6 needs to go to extensions of players already under control...the window has to be extended and not limited to 2021-23.   Meanwhile, we still aren’t getting the quality of pitching to make us sure fire contenders for those three years, let alone 2024-26.

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Therein lies the point.

Wheeler bumps from expected 4/$80 to 5 and even 6 year deals.

Hahn then turns around and argues that money in Year 5/6 needs to go to extensions of players already under control...the window has to be extended and not limited to 2021-23.   Meanwhile, we still aren’t getting the quality of pitching to make us sure fire contenders for those three years, let alone 2024-26.

That would be kenny saying that 

They could just trade him in year 4.

Zack Wheeler - "Richest White Sox in history of the franchise"

8 minutes ago, Soxnfins said:

Zack Wheeler - "Richest White Sox in history of the franchise"

He can have the illustrious distinction for 1 season!