If I'm Rick Hahn, and I sign Zack Wheeler, I approach the podium at SoxFest and plant my junk firmly atop it.

3 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Reynaldo Lopez is one of the best 15 starting pitchers in the AL?

he's not one of the best 15 pitchers in the organization. lol..small exaggeration, but you get my point..

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by Kiebs13

Just now, Kiebs13 said:

he's not one of the best 15 pitchers in the organizatin.

nooooow you're stretching.

23 minutes ago, wegner said:

Agreed.  I truly enjoyed the WTF moment when my phone alerted me of the Grandal signing.  They do better more under the radar...but then again maybe that will be another one for Rick to blow up..."The White Sox will never be seriously linked to a player on twitter and then sign him"  

True, but after Grandal signed we now know we are gonna make moves anyway. You'll get that feeling back when we move up in the power rankings and people project us as a true contender. 

1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

nooooow you're stretching.

I edited my post lol. I was being facetious.

3 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

I edited my post lol. I was being facetious.

You dirty dog.

4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

True, but after Grandal signed we now know we are gonna make moves anyway. You'll get that feeling back when we move up in the power rankings and people project us as a true contender. 

I am just waiting for the Sox to blow up my personal never of "The White Sox will never sign someone who has a QO attached to them."  Prove me wrong Rick**

**but not for Ozuna please

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by wegner

10 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Reynaldo Lopez is one of the best 15 starting pitchers in the AL?

This is my problem with advanced stats, especially when people quote 1 stat like it’s the Bible without any real context. 
 

1. Lopez’s fwar was the exact same in 2018 and 2019. How could that be possible??

2. According to fwar Lopez was more valuable than Abreu. And trust me I’m not a big Abreu fan and don’t care about his rbi title...but that’s still just dumb. 
 

fWar seems to give pitchers extra value just for having a pulse and not getting injured/being on a team that is too bad to replace him.

3 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

1. Lopez’s fwar was the exact same in 2018 and 2019. How could that be possible??

Because his FIP, which is the biggest driver of fWAR, did not change much at all. 

Also, Idk if you've noticed all the inuries, but having a pitcher with a pulse stay healthy IS valuable. If you can't see the difference between a Lopez and a Despaigne/Santana/Covey etc, idk what to tell you

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by mqr

3 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

fWar seems to give pitchers extra value just for having a pulse and not getting injured/being on a team that is too bad to replace him.

There is absolutely value to being a guy who throws nearly 200 innings.

6 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

This is my problem with advanced stats, especially when people quote 1 stat like it’s the Bible without any real context. 
 

1. Lopez’s fwar was the exact same in 2018 and 2019. How could that be possible??

2. According to fwar Lopez was more valuable than Abreu. And trust me I’m not a big Abreu fan and don’t care about his rbi title...but that’s still just dumb. 
 

fWar seems to give pitchers extra value just for having a pulse and not getting injured/being on a team that is too bad to replace him.

How is that not valuable?  

1 minute ago, mqr said:

Because his FIP, which is the biggest driver of fWAR, did not change much at all. 

Also, Idk if you've noticed all the inuries, but having a pitcher with a pulse stay healthy IS valuable. 

4.6 to 5.03 is insignificant? 
 

And sure it’s valuable...if you’re effective. Lopez would have been replaced by most teams in the league, he just happened to be playing for a team that was in full rebuild mode. Having a pulse shouldn’t be celebrated in my opinion, but we can agree to disagree. I just prefer more context than “well fangraphs said so”, there should be a bigger picture with more than just 1 cherry picked stat that fits your agenda 

2 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

4.6 to 5.03 is insignificant? 

It is when home runs are up dramatically league wide. 

No one is saying they should cement him in the rotation as a horse, but saying he doesn't have any value as a 5th starter is flat out wrong. 

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by mqr

17 minutes ago, Kiebs13 said:

I edited my post lol. I was being facetious.

You're greatly exaggerating how bad Lopez is.

Lopezs FIP has been 8% worse than league average over the past two seasons. 

8% worse than league average while throwing 180-200 innings every year is not a terrible MLB pitcher by any means.

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

How is that not valuable?  

Well I think the drop off between Lopez and fuckin' Despaigne is much more significant than say another team's #5 and his replacement with a deeper rotation

5 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

4.6 to 5.03 is insignificant? 
 

And sure it’s valuable...if you’re effective. Lopez would have been replaced by most teams in the league, he just happened to be playing for a team that was in full rebuild mode. Having a pulse shouldn’t be celebrated in my opinion, but we can agree to disagree. I just prefer more context than “well fangraphs said so”, there should be a bigger picture with more than just 1 cherry picked stat that fits your agenda 

his FIP- is identical, so yes 4.6 and 5.03 are actually exactly the same when put into context of league averages over those two years. Run scoring was up; therefore his FIP in relation to his peers was the same.

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

It is when home runs are up dramatically league wide. 

No one is saying they should cement him in the rotation as a horse, but saying he doesn't have any value as a 5th starter is flat out wrong. 

I never said he doesn’t have value. I fully understand durability is an asset. My argument was against Lopez being a top 15 SP in the AL, which in my opinion is flat out wrong. 

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

his FIP- is identical, so yes 4.6 and 5.03 are actually exactly the same when put into context of league averages over those two years. Run scoring was up; therefore his FIP in relation to his peers was the same.

Ok sure...but my point still stands of how many pitchers are allowed to throw 180+ innings of 5+era ball? Not many, most lose their job. If this were counting stats you’d guys would be on the complete opposite side of the argument. But a player simply staying healthy and accumulating fwar is different? You’ll have to explain that to me. 

Just now, TheFutureIsNear said:

Ok sure...but my point still stands of how many pitchers are allowed to throw 180+ innings of 5+era ball? Not many, most lose their job. If this were counting stats you’d guys would be on the complete opposite side of the argument. But a player simply staying healthy and accumulating fwar is different? You’ll have to explain that to me. 

In the modern game? A lot, given that Lopez was again only 8% worse than league average.

You need to stop looking at his ERA as if it was 15 years ago and realize that scoring is up league wide so ERA's are up league wide. a 5 ERA today is similar/same to a 4.4 ERA in a less friendly run scoring environment of the past.

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

In the modern game? A lot, given that Lopez was again only 8% worse than league average.

You need to stop looking at his ERA as if it was 15 years ago and realize that scoring is up league wide so ERA's are up league wide. a 5 ERA today is similar/same to a 4.4 ERA in a less friendly run scoring environment of the past.

Just to play devils advocate... If he is 8% BELOW league average... How on earth is he top 15 in AL?  To FuturesNears point, being healthy doesn't justify being good. 

NOTE: I like him as a #5 starter due to potential and seeing what he can do to begin the year..

3 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Just to play devils advocate... If he is 8% BELOW league average... How on earth is he top 15 in AL?  To FuturesNears point, being healthy doesn't justify being good. 

NOTE: I like him as a #5 starter due to potential and seeing what he can do to begin the year..

I clarified this above, but he is the 15th ranked starter in fWAR among QUALIFIED starters over the past two years. If you take out qualified, he moves all the way down to #25 - which is certainly still serviceable. 

On a WAR rate basis, he'd rank even lower as WAR is a cumulative stat. Depending on how you want to value him, things change but he's certainly not someone you should just throw away and discard.

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

What is up with the Gavin Lux reference? 

 

1 hour ago, mqr said:

Lux was who the Sox had in mind for the Burdi(?) pick, so they've likely dealt with the agent to suss out bonus.

mqr is right except the Sox were looking at Lux for their 2nd round pick. Lux didn't really get discovered as a stud until late in the draft process. The Sox foretasted him with their second pick (where they eventually took Hanson) but his stock skyrocketed at the Dodgers took him before Burdi at #26. Sox local scouts thought the world of Lux not that it is any consolation. 

2 minutes ago, raBBit said:

 

mqr is right except the Sox were looking at Lux for their 2nd round pick. Lux didn't really get discovered as a stud until late in the draft process. The Sox foretasted him with their second pick (where they eventually took Hanson) but his stock skyrocketed at the Dodgers took him before Burdi at #26. Sox local scouts thought the world of Lux not that it is any consolation. 

Yah, thanks for the response.  I had forgotten about that.  

27 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

In the modern game? A lot, given that Lopez was again only 8% worse than league average.

You need to stop looking at his ERA as if it was 15 years ago and realize that scoring is up league wide so ERA's are up league wide. a 5 ERA today is similar/same to a 4.4 ERA in a less friendly run scoring environment of the past.

Reynaldo was 1 of 3 SP’s that threw 160 IP with FIP over 5. Leake and Porecello were the other 2. 

Edited November 21, 20196 yr by TheFutureIsNear

15 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Reynaldo was 1 of 3 SP’s that threw 160 IP with FIP over 5. Leake and Porecello were the other 2. 

Everyone counts; just as you can't cite that Reynaldo was the 15th ranked starter by fWAR because it only lists qualified performers.

You create league averages vs the full sample - not just qualified. So he is 8% worse than league average in FIP. That's all that matters, imo.