First on the rebuild in general

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Before the White Sox make a run at relevance, it’s worth analyzing the path they traveled to this juncture, and how it reflects the multifarious ways to build a winning roster. Of the 15 White Sox projected to produce at least 1 WAR this season, per FanGraphs, only two were in the organization back in 2016, when Hahn initiated the rebuild. José Abreu was already an All-Star first baseman, after signing out of Cuba before the 2014 season, and shortstop Tim Anderson debuted in the majors that year, after joining the franchise in the first round of the 2013 draft.

Yet 13 of the 15 top players are more recent additions. They separate into three methods of acquisition: fully internal prospects, prospects acquired externally, and major leaguers brought in from other teams.

 

Second on Madrigal

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The Athletic’s Keith Law is the low man on Madrigal. Law left him off his top 100 list, as well as his piece about players who just missed the list. It’s not that Law doesn’t like him—he ranked him fifth on his White Sox list and projected him to be a “longtime big leaguer”—but he doesn’t see a ceiling that would justify placement on his overall list.

“You have to have some chance to be at least an above-average regular to make my top 100,” Law says. “But also, the floor isn’t ‘regular’ for him. If he can’t hit .300+ regularly, he’s probably not an average regular. And very few guys do that with [isolated powers] under .100.”

At the other end of the spectrum sits Baseball Prospectus’s Jarrett Seidler, the high man on Madrigal. BP has ranked Madrigal 15th and 13th, respectively, in the past two springs. “It’s something I’ve thought about more than nearly any other prospect grading/ranking puzzle over the last year and a half,” Seidler says, adding, “He is a unique player … and that presents evaluative challenges that are a bit different than normal.”

 

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Second on Madrigal

The Athletic’s Keith Law is the low man on Madrigal. Law left him off his top 100 list, as well as his piece about players who just missed the list. It’s not that Law doesn’t like him—he ranked him fifth on his White Sox list and projected him to be a “longtime big leaguer”—but he doesn’t see a ceiling that would justify placement on his overall list.

To be honest, he's not off about Madrigal.

He's not a "stand-out" guy at this point.

Outside of plate discipline and contact, there's nothing there that screams "star."

11 minutes ago, knightni said:

To be honest, he's not off about Madrigal.

He's not a "stand-out" guy at this point.

Outside of plate discipline and contact, there's nothing there that screams "star."

I agree with Law on that point but he's just being stubborn not putting him in the top 100.  Look at some of those guys on his back end.  You can't tell me with a straight face his last 5-8 guys are better bets to produce 10 career WAR than Madrigal.

That said, I think he's the perfect 2.5 WAR 2B for the squad around him.  Perhaps in his prime he can get to 3-4 WAR.  I liked the Marco Scutaro comp.

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by chitownsportsfan

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I think he's the perfect 2.5 WAR 2B for the squad around him.  Perhaps in his prime he can get to 3-4 WAR.  I liked the Marco Scutaro comp.

Agreed. There's nothing wrong with a solid regular in the MLB. If they get that from the majority of players in the rebuild, the Sox will have a long window for winning because they can add what few pieces they need from externally.

Remember like... 10 years ago when people would get mad at Keith Law because he always came off as biased against Sox prospects when the truth really was that the Sox didn't really have prospects and/or they sucked? Good times.

I don't disagree with him about Madrigal. In order for Madrigal to be a "star" he would have to hit a near Tony Gwynn like clip. That's just not a likely outcome. 

I will be quite happy if Madrigal can produce a 2.5-3.0 WAR most years while being exceptional defensively. 

We don't need every single one of our young prospects to be superstars. World Series contenders need their stapled role players too. 

 

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by Richie

23 minutes ago, Richie said:

I don't disagree with him about Madrigal. In order for Madrigal to be a "star" he would have to hit a near Tony Gwynn like clip. That's just not a likely outcome. 

I will be quite happy if Madrigal can produce a 2.5-3.0 WAR most years while being exceptional defensively. 

We don't need every single one of our young prospects to be superstars. World Series contenders need their stapled role players too. 

 

Yup.   A large component of the Sox' failure from 2007-2017 was simply an inability to find the "average regulars".  If Madrigal is "only" an average regular he's still going to contribute on what should be 90 win type teams and he'll be doing so on a relative pittance, freeing up money for a hole elsewhere on the roster.

If he craters completely the Sox will have to bring in a 2B in FA or trade next year.  Hopefully that doesn't happen.

Edited March 10, 20206 yr by chitownsportsfan

Sure there's no one out there like Madrigal.  He's a unicorn.  One of a kind.

AAA Nicky Lopez

BB% 14.5

K% 3.6

353/457/500

138 PA’s

 

AAA Nick Madrigal

BB% 9.7

K% 3.7

331/398/424

134 PA’s

 

 

Edited March 11, 20206 yr by Harold's Leg Lift

31 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yup.   A large component of the Sox' failure from 2007-2017 was simply an inability to find the "average regulars".  If Madrigal is "only" an average regular he's still going to contribute on what should be 90 win type teams and he'll be doing so on a relative pittance, freeing up money for a hole elsewhere on the roster.

If he craters completely the Sox will have to bring in a 2B in FA or trade next year.  Hopefully that doesn't happen.

That's no reason to take a low ceiling player with the 4th pick in the draft.  If they can't develop a league average 2 WAR player with one of the other 39 picks they should all be fired.  The first round is for high ceiling potential superstars.  Yes there's risk but every team understands it's more than worth the gamble  because if you hit on a superstar it can turn your franchise around.   They tanked and lost a shit ton of games to draft a player others teams get in the later rounds.   

If Madrigal only becomes a regular guy, the only thing saving the pick from being a disaster is everyone else succeeding. We tanked and used a top 5 pick on him. You don't tank and suck as much as we did for JAG. Thankfully, I think he will become a good all around player. 

11 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's no reason to take a low ceiling player with the 4th pick in the draft.  If they can't develop a league average 2 WAR player with one of the other 39 picks they should all be fired.  The first round is for high ceiling potential superstars.  Yes there's risk but every team understands it's more than worth the gamble  because if you hit on a superstar it can turn your franchise around.   They tanked and lost a shit ton of games to draft a player others teams get in the later rounds.   

Usually agre e with your posts but not this one.  The expected career war of the 4th pick is like 8.  People vastly over-rate the value of any pick other than the 1st really.

Teams take high risk/high reward players at the top of the draft. Yes most don't become superstars but they understand it's more than worth the risk because they should be able to draft and develop avg players with later picks.  That's why they draft the same way year after year.   They want that superstar. 

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Teams take high risk/high reward players at the top of the draft. Yes most don't become superstars but they understand it's more than worth the risk because they should be able to draft and develop avg players with later picks.  That's why they draft the same way year after year.   They want that superstar. 

Maybe they saw Rod Carew in Madrigal.  There are superstars that are great fielders, with great speed and great bat control.  Everyone doesnt have to be a masher. 

Not to say Madrigal is going to be one of these guys but I wonder how Keith Law would have rated Derek Jeter or Pete Rose as prospects.  I know Jeter had a little pop in hit bat but definitely wasn't a power guy.  He never hit more than 24 home runs in a season and only surpassed 20 homers three times.  Pete Rose never hit more than 16 home runs in one season and finished his career with more single digit home run seasons than double.  Both individuals are fairly well respected for their careers as players.  I understand the importance of hitting for power in baseball but still don't think that it's a required tool to be a good or even a great player in this league.

Both players had far more power than Madrigal has and in Jeter's case he was a SS.  Law said Madrigal would have received a bump if he were able to play SS.

14 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Both players had far more power than Madrigal has and in Jeter's case he was a SS.  Law said Madrigal would have received a bump if he were able to play SS.

I thought Madrigal was recruited as a shortstop for college but only moved to 2B because OSU had an even better defensive SS at the time? I remember reading that he would've been an SS in any other program and that his flexibility in the middle infield positions made him an even more attractive player at draft time.

20 hours ago, knightni said:

To be honest, he's not off about Madrigal.

He's not a "stand-out" guy at this point.

Outside of plate discipline and contact, there's nothing there that screams "star."

Sure.  But Madrigal (and Grandal too) are the perfect complements to the rest of the lineup that can be a little free swinging and higher K rates.  He's not sexy, but give me a .295/.335/.405 type performance next couple seasons with uber low K rate and elite 2B defense all day with the rest of this lineup.  

22 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

I thought Madrigal was recruited as a shortstop for college but only moved to 2B because OSU had an even better defensive SS at the time? I remember reading that he would've been an SS in any other program and that his flexibility in the middle infield positions made him an even more attractive player at draft time.

A lot of players are recruited to play SS in college but are quickly moved off the position.

20 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's no reason to take a low ceiling player with the 4th pick in the draft.  If they can't develop a league average 2 WAR player with one of the other 39 picks they should all be fired.  The first round is for high ceiling potential superstars.  Yes there's risk but every team understands it's more than worth the gamble  because if you hit on a superstar it can turn your franchise around.   They tanked and lost a shit ton of games to draft a player others teams get in the later rounds.   

ehhhh this is the MLB draft, not the NBA or NFL draft, getting a solid-if-unspectacular player with the 4th pick is hardly a disaster considering how common it is for teams to just outright whiff 

That's right it's not.  A MLB team can't punt on an opportunity to draft a superstar.

For the guys who think we whiffed on Madrigal, who should the Sox have taken? I personally don't know, but for anyone criticizing the Madrigal pick, I think you have to make the case that there was someone sitting there who was clearly better, or with higher upside. 

The dreamer in me thinks if we hadn't made the disastrous Tatis Jr trade, that we would never have even considered Madrigal, as Tim Anderson would now be playing 2B. 

9 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Both players had far more power than Madrigal has and in Jeter's case he was a SS.  Law said Madrigal would have received a bump if he were able to play SS.

Carew played second base, averaged 6 homers per season and had a 7 year run averaging 7 WAR a season.  Yes he was a legendary hitter but wasn't as good on defense as Madrigal looks to be.  This idea that zero power = limited value isn't true.  Yes you have to be unique but I think that has been the argument with Madrigal.  He's unique.  

On 3/10/2020 at 7:54 PM, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Teams take high risk/high reward players at the top of the draft. Yes most don't become superstars but they understand it's more than worth the risk because they should be able to draft and develop avg players with later picks.  That's why they draft the same way year after year.   They want that superstar. 

Nah. I don’t agree with this at all.  Maybe I’m reading your tone wrong but it sounds like you’re saying this as fact instead of opinion.  Which, nah. 

Basically like 5 of the last 30 number 4 picks have ever produced even 10 career bWAR.  So 25 of the last 30 drafts have amounted to jack at #4.  Get that ceiling boys!
 

and the Sox are responsible for 2 of them ?

know who they are?

Edited March 12, 20206 yr by Jerksticks

On 3/11/2020 at 10:24 AM, michelangelosmonkey said:

Maybe they saw Rod Carew in Madrigal.  There are superstars that are great fielders, with great speed and great bat control.  Everyone doesnt have to be a masher. 

I see Nick as having Nelson Fox potential as his prototype. Low power low K guys who are contact hitters, good glove and base-running skills. Rod Carew was an elite hitter, different category.