https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dylan-cease-is-having-a-strange-season/

Yeah, it's both why I'm pessimistic in the near term but optimistic long term. He is a hardworker, he's got good tools to mold, but he's not close to a finished product. But it just feels like one offseason, as they said, he's going to learn a grip or an adjustment that is going to unlock the raw stuff.

(Bauer would be the perfect guy for this stuff, but sox probably have what they need to show him and he just needs time to work on it)

Personally I really wonder how much of an influence sequencing and counts is having on Cease.  He works from behind a LOT.  He also throws a lot of pitches that never have a chance of being strikes.  Because of this, he loses the ability to throw pitches ahead of the count and pitches that hitters might chase when 1-2, but they won't when 3-1.  This article pretty well shows that he has pure stuff, but something in that stuff isn't really allowing the magic to happen.

Cease is 2017 Giolito and 2018 Reynaldo Lopez. Phantom success; if change isn't made, he'll be Lopez, if growth continues he can become Giolito. If change is delayed, they might not be as patient as they were with Gilito.

I tend to think Cease will figure it out; I think much of his demise is related to his inability to throw the ball anywhere near where he wants it. He throws way too many non-competitive pitches, and people know he can't throw consistent strikes. It's hard to get swings and misses, and for your stuff to play up, when you're never around the zone. You're constantly behind in the count, and even then your fastballs are either in the zone or completely non-competitive. 

Edited September 14, 20205 yr by Look at Ray Ray Run

I'm really worried about Cease. Obviously  too early to give up, but he is following the ReyLo development path so far: Instead of hitting the zone more, he is missing bats less. He has been really bad in long stretches this year.

Sure, Giolito went from the worst pitcher to a TOR arm, but the whole reason that is incredible is because that just doesn't really happen much. I don't like the chances of us having two pitchers manage that trick, but boy do I hope I am wrong.

When Cease starts getting lit up regularly, I'll start worrying.  I'd rather live in ignorant bliss until that time.  Hopefully that time is not tonight.

Just now, gusguyman said:

I'm really worried about Cease. Obviously  too early to give up, but he is following the ReyLo development path so far: Instead of hitting the zone more, he is missing bats less. He has been really bad in long stretches this year.

Sure, Giolito went from the worst pitcher to a TOR arm, but the whole reason that is incredible is because that just doesn't really happen much. I don't like the chances of us having two pitchers manage that trick, but boy do I hope I am wrong.

Giolito was in part so special because he completely re-did his mechanics and started pitching with a completely different arsenal (mid-90s 4 seamer, changeup).

Definite chance Cease can never command well enough. But pitchers spontaneously find that pitch or velocity or deception that vaults them all the time...and also fall apart a lot. Pitchers, man.

So it's hard to watch for me, but I do think once Cease has his fastball missing bats, it makes it all easier. And now, can he fix the spin? He probably can, And then a fastball that rides the top of the zone will be tough for hitters. But now it's nothing and so he's just all over the place.

Probably a stupid question here - if something like a grip could potentially dramatically improve his spin and make him a much more effective pitcher, why hasn't the organization done that at some point in the minors or last offseason? Do organizations track this kind of spin rate etc for high end pitching prospects? I don't mean that as a critique of the organization or of Cease, just curious.

 

5 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

I'm really worried about Cease. Obviously  too early to give up, but he is following the ReyLo development path so far: Instead of hitting the zone more, he is missing bats less. He has been really bad in long stretches this year.

Sure, Giolito went from the worst pitcher to a TOR arm, but the whole reason that is incredible is because that just doesn't really happen much. I don't like the chances of us having two pitchers manage that trick, but boy do I hope I am wrong.

I have faith in Cease because of his background. He hasn't had many games yet under his belt and I think he will get more consistent with reps. This being said, we don't have much longer to wait this out. He needs to be pushed down in the rotation next year to number five.  

Elite-O

FA

DK

Dunning

Cease 

If Cease is bad next year by the time Kopech comes back, he may lose his spot if Dunning is pitching well. 

Just now, chitown87 said:

Probably a stupid question here - if something like a grip could potentially dramatically improve his spin and make him a much more effective pitcher, why hasn't the organization done that at some point in the minors or last offseason? Do organizations track this kind of spin rate etc for high end pitching prospects? I don't mean that as a critique of the organization or of Cease, just curious.

 

I mean they probably do, they have edgartronics set-up in spring training and a pitcher lab. But it's not necessarily a quick fix and Dylan probably had a lot to work on. This offseason it may be the priority. 

26 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah, it's both why I'm pessimistic in the near term but optimistic long term. He is a hardworker, he's got good tools to mold, but he's not close to a finished product. But it just feels like one offseason, as they said, he's going to learn a grip or an adjustment that is going to unlock the raw stuff.

(Bauer would be the perfect guy for this stuff, but sox probably have what they need to show him and he just needs time to work on it)

Shields mentored Giolito and Dunning, now we must bring in Bauer to mentor Cease, Kopech and Lopez.

Give Pilkington to Keuchel cause it seems like it'd be fun.

16 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I have faith in Cease because of his background. He hasn't had many games yet under his belt and I think he will get more consistent with reps. This being said, we don't have much longer to wait this out. He needs to be pushed down in the rotation next year to number five.  

Elite-O

FA

DK

Dunning

Cease 

If Cease is bad next year by the time Kopech comes back, he may lose his spot if Dunning is pitching well. 

Who's your FA choice?

36 minutes ago, Green Line said:

When Cease starts getting lit up regularly, I'll start worrying.  I'd rather live in ignorant bliss until that time.  Hopefully that time is not tonight.

Tonight is a real good test. He really hasn't faced a decent team all year outside of Cleveland and the Cubs.

Spin rate is mostly bullshit.  100 rpm is less than a half a spin of the baseball.  There is virtually no differnce between a pitch with 2000 spin and 2300 spin.  You have to get up to Bauer territory before you start seeing a difference.  Cease's problem is not spin rate.  It's location.  He has to command his fastball better and that means he has to sacrifice some velocity to gain command.  He doesn't have to be 97-98 to get swings and misses.  Every hitter in baseball has a hole in their swing.  No hitter alive can cover the entire plate. Cease has to stop  being a thrower and start hitting his spots or he will never be the pitcher he can be.  

49 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Tonight is a real good test. He really hasn't faced a decent team all year outside of Cleveland and the Cubs.

Cleveland is the worst offensive baseball team in the league.

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Personally I really wonder how much of an influence sequencing and counts is having on Cease.  He works from behind a LOT.  He also throws a lot of pitches that never have a chance of being strikes.  Because of this, he loses the ability to throw pitches ahead of the count and pitches that hitters might chase when 1-2, but they won't when 3-1.  This article pretty well shows that he has pure stuff, but something in that stuff isn't really allowing the magic to happen.

I think you nailed it.  He's always behind and most days he can't throw a single pitch consistently for a strike.  Batters are able to just lock him in on the inevitable fastball he has to try and throw down the middle.  He's been extremely lucky on BABIP and strand rate.  He needs to improve because he will regress on those.  He has an 83.3% strand rate.  That's not going to keep up.

1 hour ago, ScooterMcGee said:

Who's your FA choice?

Bauer needs to be a White Sox. He wants a short term deal, needs to be in a big city, has an edge to him, and is a great pitcher. 

He’s a kid. Time is all he needs.

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Spin rate is mostly bullshit.  100 rpm is less than a half a spin of the baseball.  There is virtually no differnce between a pitch with 2000 spin and 2300 spin.  You have to get up to Bauer territory before you start seeing a difference.  Cease's problem is not spin rate.  It's location.  He has to command his fastball better and that means he has to sacrifice some velocity to gain command.  He doesn't have to be 97-98 to get swings and misses.  Every hitter in baseball has a hole in their swing.  No hitter alive can cover the entire plate. Cease has to stop  being a thrower and start hitting his spots or he will never be the pitcher he can be.  

Increasing spin even can be bad for low spin guys. High spin is ideal but it is better to have low spin that average spin because movement is always relative to what hitters are used to so an average spin FB will look more straight than a low spin FB.

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dylan-cease-is-having-a-strange-season/

Excellent article and thanks for sharing!  This is exactly why Cease can’t be our #3 starter come October unless he shows vast improvement down the stretch.

11 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Spin rate is mostly bullshit.  100 rpm is less than a half a spin of the baseball.  There is virtually no differnce between a pitch with 2000 spin and 2300 spin.  You have to get up to Bauer territory before you start seeing a difference.  Cease's problem is not spin rate.  It's location.  He has to command his fastball better and that means he has to sacrifice some velocity to gain command.  He doesn't have to be 97-98 to get swings and misses.  Every hitter in baseball has a hole in their swing.  No hitter alive can cover the entire plate. Cease has to stop  being a thrower and start hitting his spots or he will never be the pitcher he can be.  

Dont agree that spin rate is bullshit, however youre spot on that it isnt his biggest problem.  His problem is guys sit on the fastball because he cant consistently throw any of his secondary stuff for strikes.  MLB hitters can hit a 99mph fastball.  You have to be able to keep them off balance by making them need to protect against offspeed and breaking stuff.  He seems lately like hes been getting a bit more comfortable with the changeup as a pitch he can throw in the zone, but i dont think he has a clue where any of his breaking pitches are going to end up.  He just lets loose and prays theyll be close to the strike zone.  

He definitely must improve his control. He never will have pinpoint command like bieber or Hendricks but he must eliminate the big misses. It is ok to miss the zone by 3 inches as that can induce swing and miss but those big misses by a foot plus must be reduced.

The stuff is there but the walks are a problem especially because that means he needs to throw some middle middle fastballs to avoid more walks which then can lead to multi run homers.

He doesn't need to locate perfectly but he needs to throw strikes early in the count.

Sometimes he does get away with it and his stuff helps with getting out of jams but at some point you will give up the 3 run homer if you always walk guys.

Cease had a 13.4 K/9 rate in AA. It has decreased every year since then, most dramatically this year. He must have picked up some bad mechanic changes as he has developed because the decrease in his abilities to miss bats cannot be explained just by tougher competition.

 

Eh, it's more than just confidence.  He needs to completely revamp his mechanics this offseason.  Whatever is causing him to yank his fastball two feet off the plate and spike his curveball every other pitch has to be figured out.  The pitching from the stretch thing I just don't know about.  Yes there are many deliveries with unnecessary motion that puts additional stress on a pitcher -- but if he needs a little unnecessary motion to get his release point and command then it's a fair trade off, more than fair.