2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Trump up in North Carolina now

It's getting bad.

Looks like a blow out win for Trump. He found a lot of new voters.

Well of course as soon as I post trump goes from -800 to -300.

Edited November 4, 20205 yr by Buehrle>Wood

I haven't sat down to calculate the numbers, but doesn't Biden still win with WI/MI/PA and then Arizona?

 

Or he still needs ME and NE single electors?

 

 

33 minutes ago, Tony said:

Thus far........it really feels like 2016 all over again

Said it numerous times - the whole world has implied anyone that votes for Trump is a racist ahole; thus people keep their trump card very close to the chest and it is very difficult to get good data on it.  Just like 4 years ago - it continues to look better and better for Trump.  In general - not seeing much signs of a blue wave. I don't give a rip about the blue wave - cause I"m not a democrat...but I do care about getting us a blue president.  I'd actually prefer a temporary blue wave just so I can get some real stimulus (even if I won't fully agree with the method - our economy needs it and it will only happen with that). 

You add in CA, OR, WA, NV, you get to Biden 221.

WI/MI/PA=46

 

That's 267

 

Not counting Arizona.

Not counting Iowa.

Not counting 2 from ME/NE that could go either way.

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

If I'm looking at this right, Biden can win Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa......and still lose Ohio and Penn while claiming an electoral college victory

He needs Penn, he wont win all of WI, MI, IA.

But PA is acting normal big dem parts are coming in slower.

Biden down to +220. At least now we're holding a ++ position @Chicago White Sox

 

Let's goooo

And that +25% for Biden in Minnesota....that has to have some correlation at least with how WI eventually goes.

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Said it numerous times - the whole world has implied anyone that votes for Trump is a racist ahole; thus people keep their trump card very close to the chest and it is very difficult to get good data on it.  Just like 4 years ago - it continues to look better and better for Trump.  In general - not seeing much signs of a blue wave. I don't give a rip about the blue wave - cause I"m not a democrat...but I do care about getting us a blue president.  I'd actually prefer a temporary blue wave just so I can get some real stimulus (even if I won't fully agree with the method - our economy needs it and it will only happen with that). 

I agree with a lot of this. Looks like Trump will win Texas, but I would have been thrilled if Trump lost Texas but Cornyn won. Trump would go away and any honest reflection would tell President Biden that he’s only there because he’s not Trump- no progressive mandate, just a bit of calm.

If you substitute Iowa's 6 for let's say Michigan's 16...

And Biden wins AZ/WI/PA...

 

That gets you to 268...

Wisconsin is already closing the gap, down to Trump still up 1.7% with 35% reporting.

Edited November 4, 20205 yr by caulfield12

PA 32% in, but only 18% of it is early vote, projected to get to 45% when done.

If Biden/Cunningham both lose in NC, that makes it increasingly unlikely that you flip the Senate.

Graham already won quite easily in SC, despite being in a race with record-setting fundraising for Harrison.    Same with Ossoff in GA, KY for McGrath, spending doesn't equate to victory (or Ted Cruz's Senate race last cycle),

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If you substitute Iowa's 6 for let's say Michigan's 16...

And Biden wins AZ/WI/PA...

 

That gets you to 268...

Wisconsin is already closing the gap, down to Trump still up 1.7% with 35% reporting.

He is not getting Iowa.  I don't think it will happen.  

Pittburgh also barely counted in PA.

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

He is not getting Iowa.  I don't think it will happen.  

All those farm subsidies and Christian fundamentalists holding strong in western part of state I guess...it's crazy a state that voted twice for Obama (including caucuses) voted for Trump last time at 8-9% or whatever the final tally turned out to be.

The whole thing was it needed to be unarguable.

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Pittburgh also barely counted in PA.

Its reverse NC/OH, Trump needs a huge early lead. I think youll see similar in WI/MI. Hoping for a split with Biden takkmg PA.

1 minute ago, mqr said:

The whole thing was it needed to be unarguable.

Yup, no matter what the actual results of the election are, tonight is a win for Trump so far

Really curious about what votes are in so far in the upper midwest.

MI is also current vote heavy.  17% of count is early vote, expected to be 55% when done.  Nothing really counted in the big cities of early vote.

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Really curious about what votes are in so far in the upper midwest.

Historically Madison/ Milwaukee come in late. Biden may be down some because if there are less students at UW due to covid hed miss out on those votes.

WI  40 % in, MIlwaukee only 28%.

Market is settling around -250/+200.

A little bit of better news than that -500 fire storms from earlier.

Right now, looks like you gain AZ (Kelly), maybe Iowa (Greenfield over Ernst), Bullock/Daines and Collins/Gideon races just have no idea how to call them.   Hickenlooper over Gardner the only flip for sure and in the books so far.

Cunningham's scandal might be the tipping point there in NC, Cooper wins governorship but perhaps Trump the state overall by a few points.

Very easily ends up 50/50 tie in the Senate the way things are looking right now.

Arizona update hasn't changed in what seems like 30 minutes after originally showing up with such a high percentage already in...also, looks like Georgia is going to join the crowd with WI/MI/PA of counting into the night and subsequent days.

Edited November 4, 20205 yr by caulfield12