Vaughn at 10, Kopech 53. I knew Madrigal wouldn't be on there, but somewhat surprised that Crochet didn't make an appearance. Keith must be convinced he's a reliever.

Keith Law has never liked our minor league guys. He hated the Chris Sale drafting.

1 hour ago, Sleepy Harold said:

Vaughn at 10, Kopech 53. I knew Madrigal wouldn't be on there, but somewhat surprised that Crochet didn't make an appearance. Keith must be convinced he's a reliever.

He was convinced about that before the draft. He had Crochet 44th or so on his top draft prospect list. 

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

He was convinced about that before the draft. He had Crochet 44th or so on his top draft prospect list. 

I remember, but I thought maybe seeing his stuff play in the majors could at least vault him into the caboose of the top 100. 

It sure would be nice if the Sox gave Crochet a chance to prove him wrong.  

Even If crochet only has a 20% chance to start he is still a top100 because he has the potential to be an ace closer who produces like 2 war annually (which would be a 50fv but is more rated as a 60 by the industry due to the leverage and post season factor).

Still him being a reliever is not an ideal outcome and you gotta try to make him a starter but that possiblity to be an hader/miller type of relief ace really raises his floor.

 

Obviously that is not his absolute floor as he could get hurt but the ace reliever ceiling is definitely a nice bonus over guys like say stiever who can't pump a hundred and an 80 grade slider in relief.

2 hours ago, knightni said:

Keith Law has never liked our minor league guys. He hated the Chris Sale drafting.

He liked Moncada (top 20), Giolito (when no one else still did), Eloy (top 10), Robert (top ten) and Kopech (kept in top 50), and now Vaughn (top 10).

Tim Anderson was still top 100.

This seems like a pretty accurate summation of the sox top prospects.

He was low on Lopez when BA/MLBP were high on him. Check. 

Here were his thoughts on Cease:

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? Results at the big league level have not been great so far. Can he be a top of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was ever a top of the rotation guy … when he was throwing super hard, he couldn’t stay healthy. I get questions like this a lot, but I wonder why it’s always about “ace” or “top of rotation?” If he’s an above-average starter, that’s a huge win for the team – those guys cost a mint in trade or free agency. And I think Cease can be that, given time.

Keith Law has really proven to be the one worth reading. Yeah, currently the sox lack high end talent, we agree with that. His rankings agree with that. But the good news is he thinks Vaughn is a top 10 guy, he has been great with grading hitters. Vaughn should be a star.

I remember thinking he was way too infatuated with Dom smith for too long. Then Dom Smith started destroying the ball. 

And let's not even bring up he who must not be named, whom he put on his top 50 before anyone and we all said he was just trying to embarrass hahn. 

He's the best evaluator by far. And to me he is like Ebert. He has his type, he describes his type, and you should go into things knowing that if they aren't his type he won't like it. And some of those dudes will be an outlier and make him look silly.

17 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Even If crochet only has a 20% chance to start he is still a top100 because he has the potential to be an ace closer who produces like 2 war annually (which would be a 50fv but is more rated as a 60 by the industry due to the leverage and post season factor).

Still him being a reliever is not an ideal outcome and you gotta try to make him a starter but that possiblity to be an hader/miller type of relief ace really raises his floor.

 

Obviously that is not his absolute floor as he could get hurt but the ace reliever ceiling is definitely a nice bonus over guys like say stiever who can't pump a hundred and an 80 grade slider in relief.

when has Law ever put bullpen guys on his top 100 though? He isn't going to start for Garrett Crochet.

I do not quite understand the criteria of law. He likes some high floor guys (vaughn) and others not (Madrigal).

And when it comes to risky high ceiling guys he likes some and others not so much.

Generally he seems to be against risky pitchers but then again he liked giolito when most saw him as a bust.

 

Not sure what his criteria are, he is really much more intransperant then say longenhagen.

 

3 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

I do not quite understand the criteria of law. He likes some high floor guys (vaughn) and others not (Madrigal).

And when it comes to risky high ceiling guys he likes some and others not so much.

Generally he seems to be against risky pitchers but then again he liked giolito when most saw him as a bust.

 

Not sure what his criteria are, he is really much more intransperant then say longenhagen.

 

For pitchers it's a lot about body though. He's not going to rank an under 6 ft RHP often. Not a lot of lanky dudes, he doesn't like side arm. He likes tall pitchers with good athleticism that have a clean delivery.

That was his only rationale for staying with Giolito, and the reason Giolito was able to reinvent himself? Because he had a basleine to work with of being a very athletic 6'6 frame that gave him great deception with his fb/changeup arsenal while allowing him to re-do his delivery in an offseason.

1 hour ago, Dominikk85 said:

I do not quite understand the criteria of law. He likes some high floor guys (vaughn) and others not (Madrigal).

And when it comes to risky high ceiling guys he likes some and others not so much.

Generally he seems to be against risky pitchers but then again he liked giolito when most saw him as a bust.

 

Not sure what his criteria are, he is really much more intransperant then say longenhagen.

 

Also Vaughn is not just high floor, he's high ceiling too, so I don't think the Madrigal analogy really works

For me Law is the only guy worth paying attention to. 

 

1 hour ago, bmags said:

For pitchers it's a lot about body though. He's not going to rank an under 6 ft RHP often. Not a lot of lanky dudes, he doesn't like side arm. He likes tall pitchers with good athleticism that have a clean delivery.

That was his only rationale for staying with Giolito, and the reason Giolito was able to reinvent himself? Because he had a basleine to work with of being a very athletic 6'6 frame that gave him great deception with his fb/changeup arsenal while allowing him to re-do his delivery in an offseason.

 Everyone like those guys.  

15 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

For me Law is the only guy worth paying attention to. 

 

 Everyone like those guys.  

Yes, but if you aren't that, you won't show up in his rankings often. 

I don’t get having Marquez a top 100 but not Crochet

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

Also Vaughn is not just high floor, he's high ceiling too, so I don't think the Madrigal analogy really works

I think their ceiling is pretty similar, both could be about 3.5 war players best case, they will just do it in a very different way.

4 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It sure would be nice if the Sox gave Crochet a chance to prove him wrong.  

They haven't announced what they're doing right?

30 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

They haven't announced what they're doing right?

Bullpen for sure in 2021

13 minutes ago, fathom said:

Bullpen for sure in 2021

Then that would mean bullpen forever.

4 hours ago, bmags said:

He liked Moncada (top 20), Giolito (when no one else still did), Eloy (top 10), Robert (top ten) and Kopech (kept in top 50), and now Vaughn (top 10).

Tim Anderson was still top 100.

This seems like a pretty accurate summation of the sox top prospects.

He was low on Lopez when BA/MLBP were high on him. Check. 

Here were his thoughts on Cease:

Ryan: What are your thoughts on Dylan Cease? Results at the big league level have not been great so far. Can he be a top of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think he was ever a top of the rotation guy … when he was throwing super hard, he couldn’t stay healthy. I get questions like this a lot, but I wonder why it’s always about “ace” or “top of rotation?” If he’s an above-average starter, that’s a huge win for the team – those guys cost a mint in trade or free agency. And I think Cease can be that, given time.

Keith Law has really proven to be the one worth reading. Yeah, currently the sox lack high end talent, we agree with that. His rankings agree with that. But the good news is he thinks Vaughn is a top 10 guy, he has been great with grading hitters. Vaughn should be a star.

I remember thinking he was way too infatuated with Dom smith for too long. Then Dom Smith started destroying the ball. 

And let's not even bring up he who must not be named, whom he put on his top 50 before anyone and we all said he was just trying to embarrass hahn. 

He's the best evaluator by far. And to me he is like Ebert. He has his type, he describes his type, and you should go into things knowing that if they aren't his type he won't like it. And some of those dudes will be an outlier and make him look silly.

Ya the Law hates the White Sox thing has been debunked plenty of times.  The dude just happens to have a different criteria than most.

2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

I think their ceiling is pretty similar, both could be about 3.5 war players best case, they will just do it in a very different way.

I can see Vaughn having a few Votto-esque seasons in his prime (5-7 wins), essentially all from offensive value. I struggle to see even a maxed-out Madrigal coming anywhere close to that

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

I can see Vaughn having a few Votto-esque seasons in his prime (5-7 wins), essentially all from offensive value. I struggle to see even a maxed-out Madrigal coming anywhere close to that

I definitely could see a 5 win season  for vaughn but I think it will be hard to get there consistently because votto and even moreso goldschmidt (who often is listed as a ceiling for vaughn) had been pretty good defenders and baserunners for a 1b while the reports on vaughn are essentially good instincts but like a 30 grade athlete.

This means to get to Goldschmidts level he probably has to hit quite a bit better.

Thus I see vaughn usually around in a 3 war range with a peak season or two at 5 war.

I can see madrigal doing the same too though. Obviously not if he stays a 2 homer guy but I still see him developing into a 10 homer guy with excellent defense and that way he also could be like a 3 war guy peaking at 5.

7 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Then that would mean bullpen forever.

Not necessarily. Rumor has it they might piggy back him with Kopech/Cease for 2-3 innings if they struggle with their control.

They're going to find creative ways to get Crochet innings, like coming in after the 5th in blowouts and such. They want him available with the MLB club this year. 

 

Edited January 29, 20215 yr by Jack Parkman

Keith Law ranks the Sox 22nd in farm systems

1 minute ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Keith Law ranks the Sox 22nd in farm systems

The hazards of having a bunch of guys graduate all at once, combined with having a top-heavy system and no MiLB season in 2020. Things could shift rapidly before the next rankings.

With a lost year of production any minor league player ranking is worthless.