1 hour ago, wegner said:

I expect Jose to get to that 1.8 WAR based on his games at Wrigley alone this year 

I'm offended for you that more people haven't liked this comment.  

Jose has had a sub 3.0 WAR twice in his career and one of those was 2019 with a 2.0. To think with the protection that he has and even with a drop off after last season that that translates into a 1.8...it's safe to say he beats that easily. 

8 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Jose has had a sub 3.0 WAR twice in his career and one of those was 2019 with a 2.0. To think with the protection that he has and even with a drop off after last season that that translates into a 1.8...it's safe to say he beats that easily. 

Fangraphs vs B-R. He’s been under 3 three times in his career on FG, under 2 twice, including both 2018 and 2019 in FG. No surprise at all FG would project him to do what he did 2 of the last 3 years.

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Fangraphs vs B-R. He’s been under 3 three times in his career on FG, under 2 twice, including both 2018 and 2019 in FG. No surprise at all FG would project him to do what he did 2 of the last 3 years.

ah, good catch. Can one of those companies just buy the other and make one official version. 

44 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I'm offended for you that more people haven't liked this comment.  

Thanks...Someone appreciated it....that's good enough for me. ?

2 hours ago, wegner said:

Thanks...Someone appreciated it....that's good enough for me. ?

You're welcome sir.  

Y'all mean to tell me Jose isn't gonna hit 162 RBIs and that extrapolating a small sample size over a full season is silly?

27 minutes ago, Quin said:

Y'all mean to tell me Jose isn't gonna hit 162 RBIs and that extrapolating a small sample size over a full season is silly?

Well, if I am telling you anything, it is that Jose is unlikely to play worse in 2021 than he did in 2019.

30 minutes ago, Quin said:

Y'all mean to tell me Jose isn't gonna hit 162 RBIs and that extrapolating a small sample size over a full season is silly?

It’s strange.  It works for Dunning somehow 

24 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

It’s strange.  It works for Dunning somehow 

Lynn too.

49 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Lynn too.

Donny please

8 hours ago, SpringfieldFan said:

Yes, it is a fair point, and the numbers are the numbers and RBI doesn't necessarily translate to WAR. I guess this is the thing for me:

Having watched Jose in 2019 you can't tell me he only gave the Sox a couple more wins by being on the team rather than some other average schlub at first base. Maybe its my fan bias, I don't know, I'm an older guy and maybe I just look at general stats plus intangibles as the measure of worth more than the extremely calculated and granular sabermetrics we have now. I grew up with slash lines, period. Once I started hearing about OPS, WHIPs and whatever else that was it for me, lol.

I listened to a lot of old timers when Hank Aaron passed away and some interviews with him about advice he got as a hitter. They told him ,knock in runs and scoring runs were the most important. You knock them in you're doing great , you score them and you're getting on base.

I don’t pay any attention to this kind of stuff. How do these number crunchers have any idea in February how a players stats will look like in September?

2 hours ago, elrockinMT said:

I don’t pay any attention to this kind of stuff. How do these number crunchers have any idea in February how a players stats will look like in September?

Analysis of data separates the haves from the have nots. It’s why teams like Tampa and Oakland continue to outperform their payroll, and teams like the Dodgers target 100 + wins after Andrew Friedman’s hire.

It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however.

7 hours ago, elrockinMT said:

I don’t pay any attention to this kind of stuff. How do these number crunchers have any idea in February how a players stats will look like in September?

They know Abreu couldnt hit a beach ball out there while the weather is cold. These number crunchers know their stuff. 

 

12 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however.

Why do you expect Lynn to regress?

11 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however.

They are likely hoping guys like Moncada, Eloy, Cease, etc. continue to progress to help offset it. And I expect them to do so reasonably well.

38 minutes ago, nitetrain8601 said:

It's one thing that hasn't been talked about, but is fair. And it seems like the Sox built the team expecting no drop offs. Lynn, I expect to regress as well as Keuchel. I think TA outdoes his projection. Abreu is getting older, however.

False.

Plenty have talked about it.  Problem is those people don't talk about the teams upside at all.

Obviously there are exceptions that projections can't predict. They are using past data with historical aging curves but obviously there are cases like a swing change, added pitch or physical change that projections don't know.

However there are also many cases where changes like that regress so most of the time it is better to ignore stuff like that albeit cases like JD martinez or jose bautista do happen occasionally and of course no prediction system can foresee that.