38 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

He can just DH. I'm fine with that (even better). But Then eloy is in Lf and Vaughn in right. Which I'm fine with. Conforto may be a slighty upgrade but the juice isn't worth the squeeze in my opinion. I don't think the money required for conforto is worth it for the sox. That money needs to go to a starting pitcher and a 2b. Plus we have bullpen needs. 

I understand.

I am focused on a few areas where I'd like to see the sox go from good to great by improving these qualities (crucially while not subtracting in other areas)

1. On offense - balance the aggressiveness of our hitters with additional High OBP/lower K batters

2. On offense  - Improve on bad groundball rate through coaching + additions

3. On offense - improve balance of RHH with poor RHP splits

4. Pitching - diversify pitching options with more offspeed heavy pitchers. Velo advantage did not pay off while still so wild

5. Defense - limited ability to improve

We have 2 areas where we can reasonably improve 1, 2, 3, 5 in RF and 2b where we do not have established regulars. In free agency, there are plenty of decent 2b options, but very, very few 2b options that actually accomplish 1 or 3. Amazingly, Cesar is one of the better options there, especially if he can be better on defense as he was.

In RF, however, there are more options to improve 1, 2 and 3 and at least not get worse on 5.

Conforto may block Vaughn from an easy defensive position, but he does offer this lineup vs. RHP.

Anderson R

Robert R

Grandal L

Abreu R

Conforto L

Eloy R

Moncada L

Sheets L

Cesar H./Leury L

The emergence of sheets already added a lot, but just adding one more LH hitter like Conforto, along with keeping a switch hitting 2b really does help here. Vs LHP, we also can introduce Romy, who I believe should help with more power.

I think "balancing" is tricky in a trade, and just continuing to add is probably better just for one more year then dealing with it.

Sheets was really good, but I would caution on relying on him. Didn't Nicky Delmonico do about the same thing when he was called up? Although ir does seem Sheets hits the ball a lot harder. 

1 hour ago, kleedawg said:

He can just DH. I'm fine with that (even better). But Then eloy is in Lf and Vaughn in right. Which I'm fine with. Conforto may be a slighty upgrade but the juice isn't worth the squeeze in my opinion. I don't think the money required for conforto is worth it for the sox. That money needs to go to a starting pitcher and a 2b. Plus we have bullpen needs. 

Starting pitcher?  Why do we need a SP?  We have 5.  6 if Rodon takes QO.  I have zero idea how any person can say that RF shouldn't be a priority, and your lack of concern for OF defense is....concerning.  

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Sheets was really good, but I would caution on relying on him. Didn't Nicky Delmonico do about the same thing when he was called up? Although ir does seem Sheets hits the ball a lot harder. 

Yes and no. There are lots of rookies that flash greatness and then the league adjust to them and the find holes in their swings.  Gavin could fall in that category, sure, but for the reasons I enumerated earlier I don't think this will happen. Gavin has a great hitting approach and as many have previously stated, he hasn't had any power until recently. This is not a worry for regression. This is normal for good young hitters. Power is developed later. Part of it is simply filling out an becoming a man. So many hitters lacked power in the minors and slugged in the majors.

Gavin can hit and you cannot teach hitting (I can already see posters coming out of the woodwork saying what is a hitting coach for then, lol) . A person either has the innate hand/eye coordination to hit a round ball with a round bat or  he doesn't. But what you can do is be able to teach a hitter to hit better. You can fix mechanics, create better balance, improve swing path, approach, pitch recognition, and even vision, but if guy can't hit he can't hit.

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Starting pitcher?  Why do we need a SP?  We have 5.  6 if Rodon takes QO.  I have zero idea how any person can say that RF shouldn't be a priority, and your lack of concern for OF defense is....concerning.  

Did you not see all our SP pitch in the playoffs? A legit front office would never not stop trying to acquire SP. Going into next year Keuchal, Lopez, Kopech AND Rodon if he returns are all huge question marks. But yes RF is a huge need also. 

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Starting pitcher?  Why do we need a SP?  We have 5.  6 if Rodon takes QO.  I have zero idea how any person can say that RF shouldn't be a priority, and your lack of concern for OF defense is....concerning.  

1. Giolito

2. Kopech

3. Cease

4. Lynn

 

If Rodon stays that will take at least 18.4 mil on a qo. Keuchel is no longer a viable option and will probably be traded. We should have 6 as Kopech's innings will be curtailed and so might rodon if he re-signs.

11 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

Did you not see all our SP pitch in the playoffs? A legit front office would never not stop trying to acquire SP. Going into next year Keuchal, Lopez, Kopech AND Rodon if he returns are all huge question marks. But yes RF is a huge need also. 

I did.  It was concerning.  I also think we'll have 60% of our rotation next year receive votes for Cy Young in 2021, and two potentially in the top 5.  The rotation is set for next season.  Giolito, Cease, Lynn and Kopech are all in. Rodon may take QO making the situation more crowded.  We're paying Keuchel $18M next season - they're going to try to see if he can eat some innings.  There isn't room to bring in another SP of note, either in the rotation or the budget.  

All the SP shit the bed in a 4 game sample.  Agreed.  They were also probably the best in the AL in a 162 game sample.  Important to note.

Of course I'd like to bring in an elite TOR starter and push everyone down a notch, make Cease or Kopech our 4/5 and launch Keuchel into the sun.  But I live in reality. 

Edited October 22, 20214 yr by ChiSox59

4 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

1. Giolito

2. Kopech

3. Cease

4. Lynn

 

If Rodon stays that will take at least 18.4 mil on a qo. Keuchel is no longer a viable option and will probably be traded. We should have 6 as Kopech's innings will be curtailed and so might rodon if he re-signs.

The chances Kuechel gets traded are pretty slim. And if he's on roster, Sox are surely going to pitch him and hope he is decent enough to trade mid season or just be a serviceable 5.   Hope he gets traded, but I am definitely not counting on it. 

Rodon is coin flip.  Chances neither of them are on the Sox next year is slim. If we bring in a SP, its a veteran flier on a cheap 1 year deal.  THere is no space in rotation or budget for a SP.  

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

The chances Kuechel gets traded are pretty slim. And if he's on roster, Sox are surely going to pitch him and hope he is decent enough to trade mid season or just be a serviceable 5.   Hope he gets traded, but I am definitely not counting on it. 

Rodon is coin flip.  Chances neither of them are on the Sox next year is slim. If we bring in a SP, its a veteran flier on a cheap 1 year deal.  THere is no space in rotation or budget for a SP.  

Nope, I think you can fairly easily trade Keuchel and burger in a package to a rebuilding team (even easier if the new CBA has a salary floor) for the one commodity contenders need that rebuilding teams do not...relievers. Obviously we will have to eat some portion of that salary however.

Guys like keuchel have value to rebuilding teams.

1. They mentor young pitchers (like nova, & shields did in our rebuild, an no not worth the tatis trade).

2. They eat innings protecting their young starters and bullpen. See Detroit where skubal * mize were just throwing 3 to 4 innings despite doing well because they innings were capped.

3. They can the use guys like kuechel as currency to get more prospects if they rebound. Imagine if we were rebuilding waht we could have got for Dallas if we traded him after he started,  what? 7-1? Traded at the end of May not at the deadline.

A trade could look something like this:

Keuchel + Burger+ Collins + money to Texas for Jonah Heim (or there other catcher) and Barlow 9 or some other reliever.

Or Burger and Keuchel = Money to balt. for Frye or plutko

or

Burger and Keuchel + Money to Arizona for Carson Kelly

 

 

10 minutes ago, kleedawg said:

Nope, I think you can fairly easily trade Keuchel and burger in a package to a rebuilding team (even easier if the new CBA has a salary floor) for the one commodity contenders need that rebuilding teams do not...relievers. Obviously we will have to eat some portion of that salary however.

Mmmmk.  Of course you can find a taker for Kuechel if you pro-rate his dead in half and add in Burger.  That doesn't exactly solve our budgetary issues though.  But I am talking with the guy who wants to run out the worst OF defense in the game next season (and sees no issues with it) to save $ in RF, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.  

3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Mmmmk.  Of course you can find a taker for Kuechel if you pro-rate his dead in half and add in Burger.  That doesn't exactly solve our budgetary issues though.  But I am talking with the guy who wants to run out the worst OF defense in the game next season (and sees no issues with it) to save $ in RF, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.  

I agree we need a RF. I’m tired of seeing the black hole out there being filled with Nick Willims, Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, etc. 

 

I honestly think this team needs a lot of additions to make it a legit contender IMO. 

15 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Mmmmk.  Of course you can find a taker for Kuechel if you pro-rate his dead in half and add in Burger.  That doesn't exactly solve our budgetary issues though.  But I am talking with the guy who wants to run out the worst OF defense in the game next season (and sees no issues with it) to save $ in RF, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.  

I didn't say I had no issues with the defense. I did say u can mitigate the deficiency, play him a Dh, and even have him improve his defense with work. It can be done. But sure couch it like I do not think defense is important.

And it does help with the budget some as you are not paying all of Dallas's salary and you would be filling the defensive 2nd catcher hole as well.

Edited October 22, 20214 yr by kleedawg

47 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I did.  It was concerning.  I also think we'll have 60% of our rotation next year receive votes for Cy Young in 2021, and two potentially in the top 5.  The rotation is set for next season.  Giolito, Cease, Lynn and Kopech are all in. Rodon may take QO making the situation more crowded.  We're paying Keuchel $18M next season - they're going to try to see if he can eat some innings.  There isn't room to bring in another SP of note, either in the rotation or the budget.  

All the SP shit the bed in a 4 game sample.  Agreed.  They were also probably the best in the AL in a 162 game sample.  Important to note.

Of course I'd like to bring in an elite TOR starter and push everyone down a notch, make Cease or Kopech our 4/5 and launch Keuchel into the sun.  But I live in reality. 

Let's be honest here.  If Kopech really is a starter, what kind of odds are you giving him to make it an entire season?  Same for Dallas.  Definitely same for Rodon seeing as he has done it once in 7 years.  That's without bad luck on Lynn, Cease, and/or Gio.  It might not be a top level guy, but having at least six starters at our disposal, with options for a 7th or 8th which can be kept at AAA are reasonable.

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Let's be honest here.  If Kopech really is a starter, what kind of odds are you giving him to make it an entire season?  Same for Dallas.  Definitely same for Rodon seeing as he has done it once in 7 years.  That's without bad luck on Lynn, Cease, and/or Gio.  It might not be a top level guy, but having at least six starters at our disposal, with options for a 7th or 8th which can be kept at AAA are reasonable.

Yeah, I mean I've talked about Kopech's situation at length.  I think he is going to be max'd out around 140-160 innings.  So I agree.  I just don't think you're going to find many guys of note who are going to sign deals to be the 6th starter on a 1 year deal.  And i don't think guys who fit in towards the top of the rotation fit into the budget.  

So you're realisitically talking about guys like Quintana,  Jon Gray, Rich Hill, etc.  Wouldn't be surprised to see Sox bring someone like that in if Rodon turns down QO.  Would be very surprised to see them bring in someone who fits in the top or middle of rotation unless one of the returning SPs (not counting Rodon) somehow end up elsewhere which seems very unlikely to me. 

53 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I did.  It was concerning.  I also think we'll have 60% of our rotation next year receive votes for Cy Young in 2021, and two potentially in the top 5.  The rotation is set for next season.  Giolito, Cease, Lynn and Kopech are all in. Rodon may take QO making the situation more crowded.  We're paying Keuchel $18M next season - they're going to try to see if he can eat some innings.  There isn't room to bring in another SP of note, either in the rotation or the budget.  

All the SP shit the bed in a 4 game sample.  Agreed.  They were also probably the best in the AL in a 162 game sample.  Important to note.

Of course I'd like to bring in an elite TOR starter and push everyone down a notch, make Cease or Kopech our 4/5 and launch Keuchel into the sun.  But I live in reality. 

What makes you think Kopech is going to pitch any better than he showed us this year.  I watch a lot of games and wasn't impressed.  Cease, Cease, Cease all I keep hearing is how he has the best stuff which may be true but he's lost between the ears on how to get batter's out consistently.  Seems any bad call by the umpires throws his game off which leads to him not being able to locate the plate, which resulted in walks, walks, walks.

Rodon not testing the market with Boras as his agent is another one that I'll believe when see it, hope so but you certainly can't count on him being a part of our rotation.

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yeah, I mean I've talked about Kopech's situation at length.  I think he is going to be max'd out around 140-160 innings.  So I agree.  I just don't think you're going to find many guys of note who are going to sign deals to be the 6th starter on a 1 year deal.  And i don't think guys who fit in towards the top of the rotation fit into the budget.  

So you're realisitically talking about guys like Quintana,  Jon Gray, Rich Hill, etc.  Wouldn't be surprised to see Sox bring someone like that in if Rodon turns down QO.  Would be very surprised to see them bring in someone who fits in the top or middle of rotation unless one of the returning SPs (not counting Rodon) somehow end up elsewhere which seems very unlikely to me. 

I think Lopez is your 6th starter, long man, spot starter next year (With off days in April and rainouts you won't need 6 starters for example). But I think we must sign a legit starter next year whether thats Rodon, Scherzer, Gausman, Desclafini, Verlander, Darvish, etc. Not sure I'd put gray in same category as quintana or hill. 

5 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

What makes you think Kopech is going to pitch any better than he showed us this year.  I watch a lot of games and wasn't impressed.  Cease, Cease, Cease all I keep hearing is how he has the best stuff which may be true but he's lost between the ears on how to get batter's out consistently.  Seems any bad call by the umpires throws his game off which leads to him not being able to locate the plate, which resulted in walks, walks, walks.

Rodon not testing the market with Boras as his agent is another one that I'll believe when see it, hope so but you certainly can't count on him being a part of our rotation.

Consider Kopech basically threw 2 pitches as a relievr and may have been tipping them off. As a starter he has 4 + pitches ( I mean they are all + pitches not that he has more than 4). Yeah young pitchers are like that sometimes (cease). He has improved every year.

Edited October 22, 20214 yr by kleedawg

Just now, A-Train to 35th said:

What makes you think Kopech is going to pitch any better than he showed us this year.  I watch a lot of games and wasn't impressed.  Cease, Cease, Cease all I keep hearing is how he has the best stuff which may be true but he's lost between the ears on how to get batter's out consistently.  Seems any bad call by the umpires throws his game off which leads to him not being able to locate the plate, which resulted in walks, walks, walks.

Rodon not testing the market with Boras as his agent is another one that I'll believe when see it, hope so but you certainly can't count on him being a part of our rotation.

Dylan Cease is coming off a season with 3.91 ERA/3.41 FIP, 226 Ks in 165 IP good for 4.4 fWAR (which ranked 4th in the AL).  You may not like Cease for some reason, but your reasoning is whack.  Walks? His K to BB ratio was 3.32.  Can't get batters out consistently? GMAFB - what else do you want?  Dude was rock solid in 21 and his trajectory is pointing up.

Kopech has the ability to be one of the very best SP in the game.  Will he be next season?  Probably not.  But he's a SP and its time to use him as such.  

8 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

What makes you think Kopech is going to pitch any better than he showed us this year.  I watch a lot of games and wasn't impressed.  Cease, Cease, Cease all I keep hearing is how he has the best stuff which may be true but he's lost between the ears on how to get batter's out consistently.  Seems any bad call by the umpires throws his game off which leads to him not being able to locate the plate, which resulted in walks, walks, walks.

Rodon not testing the market with Boras as his agent is another one that I'll believe when see it, hope so but you certainly can't count on him being a part of our rotation.

If you watched games you would have seen that the stuff is there, but he was hit like batters knew what was coming in the last month of the season.  To me that screams tipping.  That is something that can be fixed.  I would be a lot more worried if his velocity was down, or his off speed stuff wasn't there.

Just now, kleedawg said:

Consider Kopech basically threw 2 pitches as a relievr and may have been tipping them off. As a starter he has 4 + pitches. Yeah young pitchers are like that sometimes (cease). He has improved every year.

Let's hope so,  I'm counting on them both to improve.  Your right he did basically thow 2 pitches, but why not use all 4.  Here's the breakdown.

726 4 seam Fastball (64.4%)

334 Slider (29.6%)

 39 Curveball (3.5%)

29 Changeup (2.6%)

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you watched games you would have seen that the stuff is there, but he was hit like batters knew what was coming in the last month of the season.  To me that screams tipping.  That is something that can be fixed.  I would be a lot more worried if his velocity was down, or his off speed stuff wasn't there.

I saw the stuff Cease had I was watching him warm up behind the catcher before the 2nd game in the bullpen against the Astro's.   He was pumped and throwing gas but my observation was he wasn't locating the plate while warming up which had me concerned.  I believe he hit 100 or 101 in the game but something happened between the ears that threw his game off.  I heard it was some close calls but being at the game I couldn't tell from my vantage point.

Edited October 22, 20214 yr by A-Train to 35th

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Dylan Cease is coming off a season with 3.91 ERA/3.41 FIP, 226 Ks in 165 IP good for 4.4 fWAR (which ranked 4th in the AL).  You may not like Cease for some reason, but your reasoning is whack.  Walks? His K to BB ratio was 3.32.  Can't get batters out consistently? GMAFB - what else do you want?  Dude was rock solid in 21 and his trajectory is pointing up.

Kopech has the ability to be one of the very best SP in the game.  Will he be next season?  Probably not.  But he's a SP and its time to use him as such.  

Your wrong I like Dylan Cease,  I'm just frustrated that he tends to walk too many batters instead of relying on his stuff over the plate.  Let's hope he get's it fixed because the talent is there.

44 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Let's be honest here.  If Kopech really is a starter, what kind of odds are you giving him to make it an entire season?  Same for Dallas.  Definitely same for Rodon seeing as he has done it once in 7 years.  That's without bad luck on Lynn, Cease, and/or Gio.  It might not be a top level guy, but having at least six starters at our disposal, with options for a 7th or 8th which can be kept at AAA are reasonable.

Agreed.  I think starting pitching is the area on this team that's most due for regression.  For 90% of the season things went about as well as we could have possibly hoped with the rotation, which carried an injured team, but I think what we saw at the end of the season is closer to what we can expect from our starters next season.  I think Lynn regresses, and Rodon (if we sign him) regresses substantially and/or gets injured.  Kopech is going to be re-learning how to be a starting pitcher and will likely wear down or hit an innings limit.  I think we'll continue to see improvement out of Cease and Giolito will remain solid, but I don't think we're "set" on starting pitching by any means.  

Luckily I think the offense is going to blaze back to what it was supposed to be last season.

 

Does anyone recall when the Fangraphs Free Agent tracker is populated?

I would assume soon after the World Series and players are either tendered, given a QO, and or non-tendered, and 2022 fWAR projections are populated

I found this tool to be the most accurate in terms of contract offers vs. other sites, or relying on fast food AC Tweets.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker