On 2/13/2022 at 5:54 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

That sort of deal makes no sense. The White Sox won’t forfeit their 2nd rounder for one year of Conforto. Also, nobody should be counting on Cespedes or Colas for anything. Either guy would be a bonus. 

Also, 15-20M is out of line for a guy making 12.5M last year and had a crap year.

6 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Also, 15-20M is out of line for a guy making 12.5M last year and had a crap year.

The last 5 season, Conforto has averaged 2.82 fWAR per season.  That includes Covid season with only 54 GP, and 2017 and 2021 where he appeared in 109 and 125 games, respectively.  On a per 162 basis, that is a 3.86 fWAR player.  To suggest he isn't worth $15M-20 AAV solely based on 2021 is quite silly.  The only reason he isn't getting a mega deal is due to 2021.  Conforto goes back to who he has always been, and he'd a bargain at $18M AAV. 

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

The last 5 season, Conforto has averaged 2.82 fWAR per season.  That includes Covid season with only 54 GP, and 2017 and 2021 where he appeared in 109 and 125 games, respectively.  On a per 162 basis, that is a 3.86 fWAR player.  To suggest he isn't worth $15M-20 AAV solely based on 2021 is quite silly.  The only reason he isn't getting a mega deal is due to 2021.  Conforto goes back to who he has always been, and he'd a bargain at $18M AAV. 

I've realized it's pointless arguing with the poster due to being biased towards anyone who has ever put on a Sox uniform haha

Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

I've realized it's pointless arguing with the poster due to being biased towards anyone who has ever put on a Sox uniform haha

(Nods in frustrated agreement) 

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The last 5 season, Conforto has averaged 2.82 fWAR per season.  That includes Covid season with only 54 GP, and 2017 and 2021 where he appeared in 109 and 125 games, respectively.  On a per 162 basis, that is a 3.86 fWAR player.  To suggest he isn't worth $15M-20 AAV solely based on 2021 is quite silly.  The only reason he isn't getting a mega deal is due to 2021.  Conforto goes back to who he has always been, and he'd a bargain at $18M AAV. 

Well if he gets $18M...I hope it isn't from us.  This idea that it isn't fair to look hard and heavy into his 2021 performance is just silly IMO.  When one of our guys has a year like his...this board wants to run him out of town on a rail.  His .232 ave with 14 HR and 55 RBI is not much better than what sheets did in less than half the at-bats.  Both Adam Dunn and Adam LaRoche convince me that NL sluggers don't always come back from down years.  

 

12 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I've realized it's pointless arguing with the poster due to being biased towards anyone who has ever put on a Sox uniform haha

You don't argue...you just post smiley faces.  Apparently, you don't have much to say that you can defend.  I will proudly admit to being biased toward WS players and management.  I'm a fan.

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

You don't argue...you just post smiley faces.  Apparently, you don't have much to say that you can defend.  I will proudly admit to being biased toward WS players and management.  I'm a fan.

Nah I just laugh at your takes, really.

Edited February 15, 20224 yr by Bob Sacamano

4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Nah I just laugh at your takes, really.

In situations like owners vs union...I only post when my opinion is different than the majority.  If I agreed with you...what would be the point.  Do you ever notice that when everyone is in agreement the subject dies out after very few posts?  

Go get Conforto AND trade Vaughn+ for Ketel Marte. 

I don't really think the Sox window lasts much past 2023 anyway so they need to get a WS this year or next. 

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Well if he gets $18M...I hope it isn't from us.  This idea that it isn't fair to look hard and heavy into his 2021 performance is just silly IMO.  When one of our guys has a year like his...this board wants to run him out of town on a rail.  His .232 ave with 14 HR and 55 RBI is not much better than what sheets did in less than half the at-bats.  Both Adam Dunn and Adam LaRoche convince me that NL sluggers don't always come back from down years.  

 

Conforto has a 3000 PA sample size of being a well above average hitter.  Sheets has a 180 PA sample sized of good matchups showing he's an above average hitter.  These two things are nothing alike.  One is also a RF, the other is a DH only.  Additionally, the Adams have absolutely nothing to do with Conforto, who isn't really even a "slugger" like those 2 were.  

Conforto is not a superstar.  He is a well above average hitter that fits a ton of team needs and all he costs is $. 

Also if either Cespedes, Colas or both turn out to be good players, Conforto can slide to LF and put Eloy where he belongs at DH. 

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Conforto has a 3000 PA sample size of being a well above average hitter.  Sheets has a 180 PA sample sized of good matchups showing he's an above average hitter.  These two things are nothing alike.  One is also a RF, the other is a DH only.  Additionally, the Adams have absolutely nothing to do with Conforto, who isn't really even a "slugger" like those 2 were.  

Conforto is not a superstar.  He is a well above average hitter that fits a ton of team needs and all he costs is $. 

You know me...if we sign him I will love him to death until he proves himself unworthy.  I personally wouldn't pay $18M because he didn't earn a $5 million raise IMO.  However, it's not my money.  As long as we upgrade 2nd as well I'm fine.  We have this odd situation with Eloy, Vaughn, and Sheets with similar skills being good hitters but certainly average minus defensive skills.  I believe Eloy and Vaugh are better than they are given credit for being...especially in LF.  

4 hours ago, poppysox said:

Both Adam Dunn and Adam LaRoche convince me that NL sluggers don't always come back from down years.  

 

Come on poppy, this is just terrible.

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

You know me...if we sign him I will love him to death until he proves himself unworthy.  I personally wouldn't pay $18M because he didn't earn a $5 million raise IMO.  However, it's not my money.  As long as we upgrade 2nd as well I'm fine.  We have this odd situation with Eloy, Vaughn, and Sheets with similar skills being good hitters but certainly average minus defensive skills.  I believe Eloy and Vaugh are better than they are given credit for being...especially in LF.  

If you won't give him like 4/80-88 or so he won't come here. 

Conforto makes way too much sense not to happen. 

Idk what they should do at 2B but if they want to go get Ketel Marte I have no issues. 

Edited February 16, 20224 yr by Jack Parkman

44 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If you won't give him like 4/80-88 or so he won't come here. 

Conforto makes way too much sense not to happen. 

Idk what they should do at 2B but if they want to go get Ketel Marte I have no issues. 

You make it sound like there is no shortage of money or trade chips.   I much prefer Marte to Conforto but am happy to take a chance since money seems to be plentiful these days.  

57 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Come on poppy, this is just terrible.

I agree...it was terrible.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Go get Conforto AND trade Vaughn+ for Ketel Marte. 

I don't really think the Sox window lasts much past 2023 anyway so they need to get a WS this year or next. 

This is the right answer. Likely...no but fun to dream on.

34 minutes ago, poppysox said:

You make it sound like there is no shortage of money or trade chips.   I much prefer Marte to Conforto but am happy to take a chance since money seems to be plentiful these days.  

The white Sox have a shortage of both money and trade chips.

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The white Sox have a shortage of both money and trade chips.

Exactly...we need to maximize the utilization of our minimal resources.  My preference, therefore, is to go with Vaugh/Sheets/Engel in RF and use our resources on finding the best 2nd baseman possible.

5 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Exactly...we need to maximize the utilization of our minimal resources.  My preference, therefore, is to go with Vaugh/Sheets/Engel in RF and use our resources on finding the best 2nd baseman possible.

Especially if that 2nd baseman can also play plus D in OF if/when needed.

18 minutes ago, Flash said:

Especially if that 2nd baseman can also play plus D in OF if/when needed.

Works for me.

In thinking about this, I checked on Conforto's supposed market value. SPOTRAC has him at $19.1M/per, with a 6/$114M contract being their guess. MLBTR guesses that he'll get 1/$20M, but as he'll cost a pick, and that his agent is Boras, I doubt that a pillow contract is in the works.

 

Today, FANGRAPHS published the ZIPS projections on Suzuki. The juicy bits are him being projected as a 125 wRC+ hitter, 23 HR, and 2.5 fWAR. ZIPS also suggests that his market value is 5/$69M; MLBTR has him at 5/$55M. A midpoint between these two is ~$12.4M/per.

 

Now, I bring this up because, while I believe that, in isolation, Conforto and his lefty bat is the better choice for RF. But, that would ignore the gaping hole at 2B, and the SOX 's position relative to the luxury tax.

 

That said, I think I'd rather sign Suzuki at ~$11M to $13M/per, because that would then make it possible to also add a cromulent 2B at ~$3.5-$5M/per. This would also allow for some "oops room" under the luxury tax. IOW, while Conforto would be a better gamble than Suzuki, the 'stars-and-scrubs' era White Sox taught us that Suzuki+Villar would be better than Conforto+Leury, if Conforto will command a $19M-$20M/per price tag.

 

In any case, Levine knows fuck-all about non-cubs baseball, and he's the source for this thread. And no one's linked us to Suzuki, so it could be that neither find their way to the rate this year. We'll see. 

Edited February 16, 20224 yr by Two-Gun Pete

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

Exactly...we need to maximize the utilization of our minimal resources.  My preference, therefore, is to go with Vaugh/Sheets/Engel in RF and use our resources on finding the best 2nd baseman possible.

Guys like Eduardo Escobar cost chump change at the deadline. I think you underestimate how bad an Eloy + Vaughn/Sheets would be in the OF. Vaughn is bad and Sheets is straight terrible out there. The pitching staff will be livid with that outfield. 

I'm torn. Conforto is a proven player, but it is a very valid point that a down year at 28 could be the start of a decline - even if most of that was bad luck. I could see him turning into a 2ish WAR player and I don't think we can afford that at a power corner position, but I think I'm inclined to go after him because he does have a TON of proven production history and I'm concerned AV may turn out to be more mediocre than originally thought, and I don't know if I quite believe in Sheets yet (although I love what I've seen). 

As for second, I could live with Leury as long as he remains a 2ish WAR player and the positional consistency turns into more solid defense. 

16 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I'm torn. Conforto is a proven player, but it is a very valid point that a down year at 28 could be the start of a decline - even if most of that was bad luck. I could see him turning into a 2ish WAR player and I don't think we can afford that at a power corner position, but I think I'm inclined to go after him because he does have a TON of proven production history and I'm concerned AV may turn out to be more mediocre than originally thought, and I don't know if I quite believe in Sheets yet (although I love what I've seen). 

As for second, I could live with Leury as long as he remains a 2ish WAR player and the positional consistency turns into more solid defense. 

Anderson SS, Moncada 3B, Robert CF, Abreu 1B, Eloy DH, Grandal C, Vaughn LF, Conforto RF, Leury 2B is a heck of a lineup.  Sign a good defensive 2B and push Leury to supersub where he belongs and its absolutely stacked.  You can mix up the order a bit if you want, can pretty much roll them out however you want 2-8 and its going to be good.  

Certainly not the best defensive team out there, but not much you can really do about that at this point.  Its why we need at least an average defensive RF and a good defensive 2B tho. 

Edited February 16, 20224 yr by ChiSox59