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The White Sox cannot be fixed by next season


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12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And probably even more important than the sheer number of days on IL is the value lost. Notice the Sox bubble is MUCH larger than Cleveland’s bubble. No one cares if Leury, Ruiz, and Keuchel are racking up IL time but when you have important players missing time it matters. I don’t think cleveland holds up if Bieber and JRam miss significant time regardless of their minor league depth.

And Minnesota's bubble is larger than Chicago's bubble. If Minnesota wasn't one of the actually banged up teams, the White Sox are in 3rd place right now. You say no one cares if Leury and Ruiz are racking up IL time - 57 of the White Sox's days are Velaszuez, 90 are Mendick, 98 are Crick, 26 are Burr, 340 are Crochet and Stiever. 

We sat here last offseason hearing about how the White Sox just had to be healthier in 2022. They actually were and yet people won't even believe it. The idea that they're suddenly going to be the healthiest team in the league is something that should be scoffed at, yet here we are having people insist it will happen. 

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And Minnesota's bubble is larger than Chicago's bubble. If Minnesota wasn't one of the actually banged up teams, the White Sox are in 3rd place right now. You say no one cares if Leury and Ruiz are racking up IL time - 57 of the White Sox's days are Velaszuez, 90 are Mendick, 98 are Crick, 26 are Burr, 340 are Crochet and Stiever. 

We sat here last offseason hearing about how the White Sox just had to be healthier in 2022. They actually were and yet people won't even believe it. The idea that they're suddenly going to be the healthiest team in the league is something that should be scoffed at, yet here we are having people insist it will happen. 

Lol where did anyone say the Sox will be the healthiest team in the league 23?  I've seen people say they expect less major injuries to core players in 23, but haven't seen anyone say they'll be the healthiest in the league.  I am certainly one of the posters that feels its unlikely we have as many IL days for key players in 23, but I don't think we'll be anywhere near the "healthiest team in the league". 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Lol where did anyone say the Sox will be the healthiest team in the league 23?  I've seen people say they expect less major injuries to core players in 23, but haven't seen anyone say they'll be the healthiest in the league.  I am certainly one of the posters that feels its unlikely we have as many IL days for key players in 23, but I don't think we'll be anywhere near the "healthiest team in the league". 

A couple posts before this we got the "If Anderson, Eloy, Robert, and Moncada are all healthy next year" post. You yourself have suggested they will be healthier.

What you guys don't realize is that's literally what you're saying when you say stuff like that! The White Sox were middle of the pack this year in number of injuries and performance lost to injuries. If your plan for next year is "they will be substantially healthier than this" - you have just said they will be one of the healthiest teams in the league!

You just won't accept this because it feels in your gut like the White Sox must have been hugely banged up this year, when in reality they haven't been unusually injured this year.

So yeah, I'm going to apparently spend the offseason pointing out every time someone says that they will be drastically healthier next year is a prediction that won't hold true, and I will also sigh and dejectedly look forwards to hearing next April that no one could have possibly predicted the 2023 rash of injuries, because that's exactly how this will go.

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6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Lol where did anyone say the Sox will be the healthiest team in the league 23?  I've seen people say they expect less major injuries to core players in 23, but haven't seen anyone say they'll be the healthiest in the league.  I am certainly one of the posters that feels its unlikely we have as many IL days for key players in 23, but I don't think we'll be anywhere near the "healthiest team in the league". 

I don't think we have to play the 'if it isn't one extreme, it has to be other' game here.  An actual normal spring training for the first time in 3 years should be a big asset all by itself.  Normal winter workouts will also be a big help, as we haven't had those in three years either. 

Obviously the big question is how much of the Sox injury problems belong to those external and extraordinary problems, how much belongs to the Sox off the field conditioning being trash since Herm left, and how much of it is players not doing the right things during the off-season?  That's the part I have no idea about, yet it could mean TONS to what the Sox do going forward.

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5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A couple posts before this we got the "If Anderson, Eloy, Robert, and Moncada are all healthy next year" post. You yourself have suggested they will be healthier.

What you guys don't realize is that's literally what you're saying when you say stuff like that! The White Sox were middle of the pack this year in number of injuries and performance lost to injuries. If your plan for next year is "they will be substantially healthier than this" - you have just said they will be one of the healthiest teams in the league!

You just won't accept this because it feels in your gut like the White Sox must have been hugely banged up this year, when in reality they haven't been unusually injured this year.

So yeah, I'm going to apparently spend the offseason pointing out every time someone says that they will be drastically healthier next year is a prediction that won't hold true, and I will also sigh and dejectedly look forwards to hearing next April that no one could have possibly predicted the 2023 rash of injuries, because that's exactly how this will go.

We know.

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14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And Minnesota's bubble is larger than Chicago's bubble. If Minnesota wasn't one of the actually banged up teams, the White Sox are in 3rd place right now. You say no one cares if Leury and Ruiz are racking up IL time - 57 of the White Sox's days are Velaszuez, 90 are Mendick, 98 are Crick, 26 are Burr, 340 are Crochet and Stiever. 

We sat here last offseason hearing about how the White Sox just had to be healthier in 2022. They actually were and yet people won't even believe it. The idea that they're suddenly going to be the healthiest team in the league is something that should be scoffed at, yet here we are having people insist it will happen. 

There you go again giving other teams the benefit of the doubt over the Sox. If all three teams were equally impacted by injury, I would say it’s fair that all three teams are within a game or so of one another. It shows your clear bias when you automatically slot the Sox at third in that scenario. If anything. Cleveland is in third and Minnesota is in first by a game.

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3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

There you go again giving other teams the benefit of the doubt over the Sox. If all three teams were equally impacted by injury, I would say it’s fair that all three teams are within a game or so of one another. It shows your clear bias when you automatically slot the Sox at third in that scenario. If anything. Cleveland is in third and Minnesota is in first by a game.

It is a "Clear bias" to assume that the White Sox will be anything other than the healthiest of the three teams. Precisely. 

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

It is a "Clear bias" to assume that the White Sox will be anything other than the healthiest of the three teams. Precisely. 

I never said that. In fact, I said the exact opposite. This is who they are but there is no denying that they have been impacted by injury far greater than Cleveland and that is the 4 game difference between the two. No one can convince me Cleveland is the more talented team. They are the healthier team and better coached team yes.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I never said that. In fact, I said the exact opposite. This is who they are but there is no denying that they have been impacted by injury far greater than Cleveland and that is the 4 game difference between the two. No one can convince me Cleveland is the more talented team. They are the healthier team and better coached team yes.

The White Sox have been impacted by injury far greater than Cleveland has, although I don't believe that's enough to make up a 4 game difference.

The White Sox have one of the oldest rosters in baseball, were even more injured in 2021, and had guys who were injured coming into the year, so it also shouldn't be surprising that the White Sox were more injured than Cleveland. If you played out this season 10 times, I'd bet the White Sox are more injured than Cleveland 9 or 10 of those times. 

For next year...if your prediction is that the White Sox will be the healthiest team in the Central and that's how we'll make up ground against Cleveland, I again say "good luck" and look forward to hearing how no team could possibly be expected to deal with the rash of injuries that hit them in April of 2023.

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On 9/18/2022 at 9:19 PM, kwill said:

People are crazy. The team had a crazy amount of injuries and certain players drastically underperformed their career norms and very likely the division will go down to the last week either way. 

Did this team underperform up to this point in the season? 100%. Is the team completely broken. That is a very long stretch. 

What would you call broken if not when you are supposed to be playing championship caliber ball, as promised by Hahn ,while playing .500 baseball for a year, while smack dab in the middle or even past the middle now of a championship window ? I don't see any championships coming do you ? Way too many things wrong with this team.

I don't know how old Houston's team is but how long have they been in their championship window 6 or 7 years now ? What is their average age compared to the Sox while kicking ass for 6 years or so ?

The Sox are old, can't play defense , can't hit, the core is all injury prone or flaming out. They're playing 1st basemen in the OF and their best most consistent guy, who plays all the time and is never injured, is the one they almost have to say goodbye to just to start to fix this mess because oh, yea they're maxed out on payroll too for a .500 team.

Plus they didn't even want a draft pick for Rodon when they can barely field a pitcher staff at AAA. And they thought signing an injured relief pitcher was more important than signing Rodon. Screwed up the whole Kimbrel situation by repeatedly getting older, more RH, and wasting money ,never got more  LH position players, just got older and older and spent a fortune on relief pitching, while also deciding they didn't need real or LH outfielders.

Oh one more thing they sure don't like to have good minor league players either, especially pitchers.

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14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

What would you call broken if not when you are supposed to be playing championship caliber ball, as promised by Hahn ,while playing .500 baseball for a year, while smack dab in the middle or even past the middle now of a championship window ? I don't see any championships coming do you ? Way too many things wrong with this team.

I don't know how old Houston's team is but how long have they been in their championship window 6 or 7 years now ? What is their average age compared to the Sox while kicking ass for 6 years or so ?

The Sox are old, can't play defense , can't hit, the core is all injury prone or flaming out. They're playing 1st basemen in the OF and their best most consistent guy, who plays all the time and is never injured, is the one they almost have to say goodbye to just to start to fix this mess because oh, yea they're maxed out on payroll too for a .500 team.

Plus they didn't even want a draft pick for Rodon when they can barely field a pitcher staff at AAA. And they thought signing an injured relief pitcher was more important than signing Rodon. Screwed up the whole Kimbrel situation by repeatedly getting older, more RH, and wasting money ,never got more  LH position players, just got older and older and spent a fortune on relief pitching, while also deciding they didn't need real or LH outfielders.

Oh one more thing they sure don't like to have good minor league players either, especially pitchers.

A lot of the pitchers the Sox drafted/signed over the last few year have taken significant steps this year. I'd watch for Sean Burke in particular next year, if he doesn't get traded. 

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18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox have been impacted by injury far greater than Cleveland has, although I don't believe that's enough to make up a 4 game difference.

The White Sox have one of the oldest rosters in baseball, were even more injured in 2021, and had guys who were injured coming into the year, so it also shouldn't be surprising that the White Sox were more injured than Cleveland. If you played out this season 10 times, I'd bet the White Sox are more injured than Cleveland 9 or 10 of those times. 

For next year...if your prediction is that the White Sox will be the healthiest team in the Central and that's how we'll make up ground against Cleveland, I again say "good luck" and look forward to hearing how no team could possibly be expected to deal with the rash of injuries that hit them in April of 2023.

No. It’s easy. The White Sox make up ground by playing to their true potential just like they did last season and getting rid of Tony (.667 winning % without him this season.

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26 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No. It’s easy. The White Sox make up ground by playing to their true potential just like they did last season and getting rid of Tony (.667 winning % without him this season.

Some version of that is what I would probably try, but I'm definitely not confident in it or going to assert that it's easy. 

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The one major change heading into 2023 is the fact that players will have their first full and regularly timed spring training since 2019. 

  • 2020 - COVID + Long Owner Lockout and truncated July Spring Training. 60 Game Season, no minor leagues disrupted player development.
  • 2021 - Truncated Spring Training due to COVID lockdowns. Players coming off of short season, pitchers had to rebuild stamina. 
  • 2022 - Second Owner Lockout. No off-season training / rehab work with staff or at team facilities. Third consecutive truncated Spring Training.

Not saying this impacted the Sox more or less than any other team, but with many Sox players coming off of injuries this year, it will be beneficial for them to work with staff throughout the offseason and hopefully report to Spring Training fully healthy and prepared to compete in 2023. 

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Some version of that is what I would probably try, but I'm definitely not confident in it or going to assert that it's easy. 

I don’t see the Twins or Guardians improving much this offseason and if all three bring basically the same team back, I think the Sox are heavy favorites especially if Tony is gone.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I don’t see the Twins or Guardians improving much this offseason and if all three bring basically the same team back, I think the Sox are heavy favorites especially if Tony is gone.

I don't know what the Twins are going to do. They are in a weird spot where they were way more banged up than the White Sox so they could project to being healthier next year, they may or may not lose Correa, but if they lose him they have more money to spend. I do think they will look quite different next year, but as with this year a lot of how they do will come down to Buxton's health.

I think the Guardians are going to be notably better next year than this. They played what, 16 rookies for significant time this year? Those are guys who are commonly going to get better with experience. On top of that, they have the #3 system in the league per MLB.com with 5 top 100 prospects, 4 of whom are expected to arrive next year. That organization is currently loaded, and they have so much youth that it's reasonable to think they could add to their payroll.

On top of that - Detroit and KC may be 70 win teams rather than 60 win teams (Detroit had an entire 5 man rotation get hurt, that may not happen again), and the schedules are more balanced so the White Sox can't fatten up on as many wins against Detroit. 

The White Sox will be a talented team, but with their old roster I'm not even sure they will be the most talented team on paper next year. I still think the Sox have to try their best to compete for another year given where their roster is, but even if they make good moves they could easily find themselves stuck in the wild card or worse. 

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9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I don’t see the Twins or Guardians improving much this offseason and if all three bring basically the same team back, I think the Sox are heavy favorites especially if Tony is gone.

Twins will be active. Year 7 of the Falvey/Lavine era and they don’t have a playoff win. It’s probably a do or die off-season for them. They also very likely have $35M to Correa coming off the books, and their best two SP in Gray and Mahle are in their last year of control in 23. 

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15 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Twins will be active. Year 7 of the Falvey/Lavine era and they don’t have a playoff win. It’s probably a do or die off-season for them. They also very likely have $35M to Correa coming off the books, and their best two SP in Gray and Mahle are in their last year of control in 23. 

They may be active but I don’t see them improving much with the way their roster is currently structured and payroll limitations.

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17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't know what the Twins are going to do. They are in a weird spot where they were way more banged up than the White Sox so they could project to being healthier next year, they may or may not lose Correa, but if they lose him they have more money to spend. I do think they will look quite different next year, but as with this year a lot of how they do will come down to Buxton's health.

I think the Guardians are going to be notably better next year than this. They played what, 16 rookies for significant time this year? Those are guys who are commonly going to get better with experience. On top of that, they have the #3 system in the league per MLB.com with 5 top 100 prospects, 4 of whom are expected to arrive next year. That organization is currently loaded, and they have so much youth that it's reasonable to think they could add to their payroll.

On top of that - Detroit and KC may be 70 win teams rather than 60 win teams (Detroit had an entire 5 man rotation get hurt, that may not happen again), and the schedules are more balanced so the White Sox can't fatten up on as many wins against Detroit. 

The White Sox will be a talented team, but with their old roster I'm not even sure they will be the most talented team on paper next year. I still think the Sox have to try their best to compete for another year given where their roster is, but even if they make good moves they could easily find themselves stuck in the wild card or worse. 

See post above regarding Twins. Cleveland may have a good farm but it wouldn’t surprise me if they trade Bieber this offseason either. It’s always 1 step forward, 2 steps back for that penny pinching franchise in recent years. Detroit and LC won’t be a threat next year but should be more competitive in 2024/2025.

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I said this in so many words in another thread, so just copy/pasting here. 

From last month:

DO NOT think this team needs a total tear down. Hell, we're 6/7? games back of the division and the markets are still giving us better odds to win the WS than Cleveland. The markets talk the truth and this team has talent. I won't go into the boring stuff, but the whole staff needs to be sacrificed. Katz can stay, but the rest need to go. We need a nutritionist, strength and conditioning staff, etc. and we need to hire full analytics team. Read up on Voth going from the Nationals to the Orioles. Baseball is like golf and all individuals on this team are different. Some may need 2/3 pitching coaches in their ear, others may need none and just Cueto giving them advice. All are different, and as such, think it'd be smart to have 2 pitching coaches and 2 hitting coaches. You're limited to 6 uniformed coaches per game, but doesn't mean you can't have more. 

 

Now onto the roster. It may feel like we're on a desert island, but it's really not that bad. Simple moves ... resign Abreu and Cueto. Cueto xFip and xERA are not great. He may even be likely to throw 4.25ERA ball next year and beyond, but that said ... rubber arms are worth something. And if he's going to be able to give you 175IP you take that in the 5 slot and don't look back. Now I don't think we exactly created a great atmosphere for him where he's going to accept less than market value, but if you can get him in the range of 2yr, $18mm you take it. (for those of you who think that's high - think joe kelly, think leury, think VV, etc.) One less spot to worry about. Secondly you sign Abreu. You don't let your best hitter and leader walk. you just dont. i don't care his age compared to vaughn and the fit go-forward, etc. You resign your franchise guy who has said he'll take a discount. I'd be giving him $15-20mm a year, some kind of player/club option deal where it's basically a year to year deal but that he's getting paid for his services fairly. 

 

The hot topic guys: Grandal ... i get it, this board hates him. catchers fall off cliffs. he looks like hes running in sand. his knees are shot. i get it all. that said catcher is not an easy position to just go out and fill. look at the mets, yankees, houston, etc. those are the top teams in baseball and they've had trouble for years and years. grandal is under contract, let's get him an offseason of rest and lets call a spade a spade. he's an overcompensated 90-110 game catcher. that's it. he's not your DH now on off days. he's not your power guy. He's a 7/8th in the lineup guy. good news is the shift is going away and he gets shifted on a ton. get him to 22 doctors and figure those knees and a routine and let's just get slightly above average WAR out of him. 

Moncada ... ahhh, third base and the white sox ... always. i've always struggled to like the guy. but his D is solid and he has a good eye, maybe too good of an eye. robot umps would help him. he needs to expand his zone a bit (which is the opposite of most this team). But you just take what you have. it's not a hole. he falls into that 7/8th in the lineup. he's also in the boat for nutritionist and yoga guy. go see ceases yoga guy.  not sure if his diet changed from twinkies yet, but seriously, he needs to fix that s%*# and who knows. im fine w him like grandal. 

Vaughn/Eloy - I'm a sucker, but i think you can't trade eloy at his lowest trade value. even coming back strong lately, hes been so injured ... you have to keep him for one more year. then you can see what his trade value is go-forward. he's a DH, so is vaughn (at least with Abreu). it's not great, and it's one of the things holding this team back. previously ive said you need an eloy for podsednik type trade ala carlos lee... i wouldn't be mad at that, but i think it's worth one more year. You just slot Eloy at LF and Vaughn at DH and don't look back. rotate around with Vaughn at 1B for when Abreu need DH days. Done. Again to create a hole just becuase this year was brutal.

Robert - obviously nothing. Anderson - obviously nothing. Rotation - leave it. I doubt it'd happen, but maybe even try and sign Gio to a 4yr/60mm type deal. i know, i know ... but think of us saying that last offseason ... i doubt he takes it. he believes in himself, but i'd try it. Cease/Kopech/Lynn/Cueto/Giolito with Crochet and Davis Martin, etc should be able to be an okay rotation. Bullpen. leave it. we dont need to spend money there. the guys are fine. let it be. kelly will be better (by default) and we don't need focus there. 

This roster sounds the same so far huh? I sound crazy huh? The deal to be made is so simple.

1 - Sign Conforto. Lefty, OBP, Right Fielder. Check, check, check. Guessing he's in for a pillow deal of like 1/$20mm ... even better. It fits our window and allows us clarity. 

(1a) you can convince me Joey Gallo, but i just see Adam Dunn and i Just see it not being a great fit on this roster ...

2 - I think we already have to do it, but resign Pollock. He's going to need to play 75-100 games with our OF and injuries. I'd add Tyler Naquin as well. Same idea. You need someone who can start. No more Engel, No more Sheets, No more Leury ... just none of it in my outfield. 

3 - Goodbye Sheets, Burger, Engel, Harrison. They're not good. You're not going to get much for them. maybe can get a bullpen arm out of one?

4 - 2B - as much as i'd love to go after a guy like Trea Turner, it's just not happening with JR. So just give me any of our meh minor league guys. 

OF - Eloy/Robert/Conforto/Pollock/Naquin

IF - Moncada/Anderson/Romy/Abreu/Vaughn/Leury (shoot me)

C - Grandal/Seby/AAAA guy

 

So you're thinking to you self ... that's the same team. Yes, yes it is. Because this isn't the time to tear down the team. We built this thing over 5-6 years and we have one more year of really going for it before decisions need to be made. The problem is TLR and staff and we all know it. We need a hitting coach that focuses on real data and not singles and a manager that is alive. We also need a RF w a lefty bat on a short contract (ideally) ... and that's available too. 

 

If you structure deals for Abreu, Conforto and Cueto at 1 year with some sort of options ... then after 2023 you have:

Yaz - $18.25mm off the books

Abreu - $18mm (lets just pretend it's a 1yr 18mm and option stuff) off the books

Pollock - $10mm off the books

Kelly $9.5mm off the books

Conforto $20mm off the books

Leury - only $5mm, 1yr to cut. 

Total: $80mm

2024:

Lynn - $18mm off the books

Hendriks - $15mm off the books

Anderson $14mm off the books

Graveman $8mm off the books

Total: $55mm

None of these guys have trade value to return young talent to turnover into anyways, so you have to roll with them. we are stuck for next year based on this plan. The flexibility opens up afterwards. sometimes the best solution is the one right in front of you. and in this case, it was the solution we were all looking for this past offseason ... sign conforto and fire this staff. 

 

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@he gone. - If you're spending $9 million on Cueto, $15 million on Abreu, and $20 million on Conforto, you are right up against the Tax line, possibly over it. You have a payroll boost of nearly $20 million compared to 2022. I think that's more than Conforto gets, but not too far off on the other guys. And I will be skeptical that the White Sox will push into tax territory, even for a year, until I see them do it. 

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2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

A lot of the pitchers the Sox drafted/signed over the last few year have taken significant steps this year. I'd watch for Sean Burke in particular next year, if he doesn't get traded. 

Doesn't matter they can't help now when they need the help. Maybe Colas can play well next yr. but what is that 50/50? Same for Davis Martin. Sosa who knows, Romy same. Can Moncada, Grandal and Giolito get better more question mark. Can Eloy stay healthy ? Lynn is getting older, Pollock is an albatross. God only knows how the relief pitching fares from year to year. Is Anderson's life interfering with his baseball ? Can Kopech advance like Cease. Whats the plan for Crochet ? How in the world can the Sox shed money and get better in all those area they have to get better ?

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57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

@he gone. - If you're spending $9 million on Cueto, $15 million on Abreu, and $20 million on Conforto, you are right up against the Tax line, possibly over it. You have a payroll boost of nearly $20 million compared to 2022. I think that's more than Conforto gets, but not too far off on the other guys. And I will be skeptical that the White Sox will push into tax territory, even for a year, until I see them do it. 

I don't disagree. The only reason I think it's viable is that it'd be a one year thing and may not go over. Once 2023 ends a lot of flexibility and clarity opens up. So it's biting a bullet for a year. 

 

If the Sox do want to, they can definitely wiggle a bit by packaging Leury with a prospect of some level to take that $5mm off the table. Even with Kelly being bad, they may be able to just off load him to a team in exchange for a PTBNL. Pollock can probably be offloaded with eating $3mm. They aren't my favorite options, but none of those guys are difference makers ... 

Like, throw in Sheets with Leury and someone probably takes a flier. 

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26 minutes ago, he gone. said:

I don't disagree. The only reason I think it's viable is that it'd be a one year thing and may not go over. Once 2023 ends a lot of flexibility and clarity opens up. So it's biting a bullet for a year. 

 

If the Sox do want to, they can definitely wiggle a bit by packaging Leury with a prospect of some level to take that $5mm off the table. Even with Kelly being bad, they may be able to just off load him to a team in exchange for a PTBNL. Pollock can probably be offloaded with eating $3mm. They aren't my favorite options, but none of those guys are difference makers ... 

Like, throw in Sheets with Leury and someone probably takes a flier. 

Personally I think there's a lot of hints that the 2022 payroll is JR's absolute limit right now (See: the trade deadline). Sheets + Leury to someone actually might be do-able, that's probably about that player's value.

However, every one of those moves leaves the White Sox needing someone to replace them. Great we removed Kelly - who is replacing him? Another $5 million reliever? Their bullpen has an opening now. We removed Pollock, great, do we need to spend another $4 million on someone who can backup CF (probably yes, that person wouldn't be on the roster)? Great we removed Leury, is Sosa the only backup SS or do they have to spend $4 million on Andrus? 

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