24 minutes ago, fathom said:

Every sign points to them being tight on money 

It’s a damn shame 

One thing that Clevinger said about signing early is that he knew he left a bad taste in everyones mouth with his playoff start and explained that his MCL in his drive leg was pretty bad at the end of the year. He did say that he wasnt trying to throw a pity party for himself though while explaining the last couple of months of the season. 

46 minutes ago, fathom said:

Every sign points to them being tight on money 

They aren't tight on money they just don't want to spend it on payroll.

Either out of greed or just JR screwing the FO over for pushing out his friend. 

But they aren't legitimately tight on cash that can't be possible with all the different revenue streams. There's no fucking way. 

Edited December 5, 20223 yr by SoCalChiSox

1 hour ago, CBJ03 said:

One thing that Clevinger said about signing early is that he knew he left a bad taste in everyones mouth with his playoff start and explained that his MCL in his drive leg was pretty bad at the end of the year. He did say that he wasnt trying to throw a pity party for himself though while explaining the last couple of months of the season. 

The good news is the White Sox have an excellent record of helping pitchers avoid leg injuries recently. (Recently = I don’t think any of them have been hurt since mid October).

6 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

If the Sox anticipated shopping anywhere but the Salvation Army, there would have been Soxfest this year. They gave away they are cowards, they also gave away they weren’t planning on doing enough that would get Soxfest attendees minds off of 2022 this winter.

If this is true then why not blow it up and start over again? This team needs so much. If they don’t make significant trades and are hovering around .500 by the all star break, then they should absolutely trade everybody and start over.

Why Mike Clevinger signed with the White Sox and why he wants revenge against Cleveland

8 hours ago, chetkincaid said:

If this is true then why not blow it up and start over again? This team needs so much. If they don’t make significant trades and are hovering around .500 by the all star break, then they should absolutely trade everybody and start over.

The problem with blowing it all up, aside from convincing ownership, is that so many of the white Sox’s players have depressed value. Moncada, Grandal, Kelly basically have none. Anderson, Eloy, Giolito, Graveman, Bummer, Lynn still have some, but all are coming off injured, down seasons. Robert still looks good to a trade, but also still had a down season. Kopech hasn’t had a breakout year and no one will pay assuming he did. The only guy you’d be trying to trade at a high value point is Cease, and that’s not enough to restock this weak system. A rebuild of this team therefore now could easily be a 5-7 year process.

In this case, the only strategy that makes sense to me is to play for the trade deadline this year. If a couple of guys have better first halves, they could be worth enough to make selling a better bet at that point. And sometimes, teams can outplay their talent level by 10 games, we’ve seen Seattle do that recently.

A key part of doing this of course would be “first do no harm”. Don’t take on multi year money that hamstrings you long term if the deal goes bad - no matter how sure if a thing you think someone is, it here’s always a chance of an injury or a down season. And what did the Sox do on their first deal? Used a mutual option seemingly to defer money into their 2024 payroll, because that worked out great this year already.

The real problem with blowing it all up and starting over is the sox front office still has no strong claim that they have a strong player development or drafting regime in place. Hahn just had the best draft position the white sox have had in 30 years and drafted a bunch of players that not only aren't impactful in the majors, but quickly lost prospect value in the minors.

Why give him a rebuild?

The mariners had very little in the cupboard to sell when they kicked off their rebuild, but unlike Hahn, when Dipoto switched gears he was able to build a strong farm and player development system that actually looks like it can be sustained. he also appears to want to use his additional budget to sign high impact players not dallas keuchel.

This group didn't deserve the first rebuild, nor the second. Definitely not a third. 

And individually i like getz. And I like shirley. And I like Paddy. But they don't have a competent team above them making sure it's all working together.

But also dylan cease alone is a ridiculous piece to kick off a rebuild. Luis Robert would get you a lot. This actually, given the teams competing, is a good time to rebuild.

But the sox have no right to. They need to show they can't rebuild and hopefully resign in disgrace.

9 hours ago, chetkincaid said:

If this is true then why not blow it up and start over again? This team needs so much. If they don’t make significant trades and are hovering around .500 by the all star break, then they should absolutely trade everybody and start over.

Not really, though.  

2 hours ago, Sarava said:

Why Mike Clevinger signed with the White Sox and why he wants revenge against Cleveland

Great listen.  Thanks for sharing! 

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

But also dylan cease alone is a ridiculous piece to kick off a rebuild. Luis Robert would get you a lot. This actually, given the teams competing, is a good time to rebuild.

But the sox have no right to. They need to show they can't rebuild and hopefully resign in disgrace.

There is no scenario I would trade Luis Robert right now.  If he goes out and plays 145 games at the pace he was on in 2021, and he's a 7 fWAR player.  Perhaps the most valuable player in the game at that point.  He's controlled for 5 more seasons.  There is no rush to move him coming off whatever that 2nd half of 2022 was.  

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

There is no scenario I would trade Luis Robert right now.  If he goes out and plays 145 games at the pace he was on in 2021, and he's a 7 fWAR player.  Perhaps the most valuable player in the game at that point.  He's controlled for 5 more seasons.  There is no rush to move him coming off whatever that 2nd half of 2022 was.  

I don't think the white sox should rebuild. I think if steve cohen was owner there is an easy path with this FA class to put the white sox in the world series.

I'm just saying that there are good years to sell and bad years. This year a lot of orgs are competing, and the top ten farms include many of those teams. You don't want to sell when the top ten farm systems are made up mostly of rebuilding clubs, because they aren't going to trade them at that point.

Right now BAs top ten farms include Orioles, Dodgers, Guardians, Rangers, Cardinals, Mets. 

If you are like, the brewers, and decide you are at the end of the rope with this group and farm, you could easily just rake in tons of those orgs top prospects.

10 hours ago, chetkincaid said:

If this is true then why not blow it up and start over again? This team needs so much. If they don’t make significant trades and are hovering around .500 by the all star break, then they should absolutely trade everybody and start over.

We are in the middle of a post bare bones rebuild “contention” window where they dicked around and cut corners.  I’m gonna guess the GM knows he got his one chance to rebuild and it wasn’t enough to make them legit contenders, and knows the org won’t invest in the pipeline of talent to make winning sustainable.  So tearing it down makes no sense, and probably is a non-starter for an owner that wants to pretend they have a chance to win every year.  Let’s be real, the minors are barren, and they refuse to spend on top talent in FA.  Any rebuild is likely doomed to repeat this past failure because it would require systemic change in how they operate.   

Edited December 5, 20223 yr by Tnetennba

24 minutes ago, bmags said:

The real problem with blowing it all up and starting over is the sox front office still has no strong claim that they have a strong player development or drafting regime in place. Hahn just had the best draft position the white sox have had in 30 years and drafted a bunch of players that not only aren't impactful in the majors, but quickly lost prospect value in the minors.

Why give him a rebuild?

The mariners had very little in the cupboard to sell when they kicked off their rebuild, but unlike Hahn, when Dipoto switched gears he was able to build a strong farm and player development system that actually looks like it can be sustained. he also appears to want to use his additional budget to sign high impact players not dallas keuchel.

This group didn't deserve the first rebuild, nor the second. Definitely not a third. 

And individually i like getz. And I like shirley. And I like Paddy. But they don't have a competent team above them making sure it's all working together.

Spot on.  

2 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

We are in the middle of a post bare bones rebuild “contention” window were they dicked around and cut corners.  I’m gonna guess the GM knows he got his one chance to rebuild and it wasn’t enough to make them legit contenders, and knows the org won’t invest in the pipeline of talent to make winning sustainable.  So tearing it down makes no sense, and probably is a non-starter for an owner that wants to pretend they have a chance to win every year.  Let’s be real, the minors are barren, and they refuse to spend on top talent in FA.  Any rebuild is likely doomed to repeat this past failure because it would require systemic change in how they operate.   

I think you absolutely have to go for it 2023.  You can reassess after 2023.  The positive is that, while not trying to be morbid, if the Sox were to strip it down after 23 or 24, and got thru a multiple year rebuild, by the time they're trying to contend again there is better than a decent chance JR is no longer running the White Sox. 

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think you absolutely have to go for it 2023.  You can reassess after 2023.  The positive is that, while not trying to be morbid, if the Sox were to strip it down after 23 or 24, and got thru a multiple year rebuild, by the time they're trying to contend again there is better than a decent chance JR is no longer running the White Sox. 

The thing to do coming off of the disaster of 2022 is spend on impact talent and actually address the issues that plagued them on the field and in the locker room.  But the chairman wants to just sit on his hands and wish it all away.  These goons don’t deserve another rebuild, nor should they knowing how the org operates.  It’s s%*# or get off the pot time for JR and he seems to want to keep fence sitting his way to a title.  There is too much talent here not to try, but an org that actually wants to do everything to win would and should know that what they do have isn’t enough. They have to add, and adding from the rubbish bin yet again just isn’t going to cut it. 

Just now, Tnetennba said:

The thing to do coming off of the disaster of 2022 is spend on impact talent and actually address the issues that plagued them on the field and in the locker room.  But the chairman wants to just sit on his hands and wish it all away.  These goons don’t deserve another rebuild, nor should they knowing how the org operates.  It’s s%*# or get off the pot time for JR and he seems to want to keep fence sitting his way to a title.  There is too much talent here not to try, but an org that actually wants to do everything to win would and should know that what they do have isn’t enough. They have to add, and adding from the rubbish bin yet again just isn’t going to cut it. 

No argument from me on that. 

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think you absolutely have to go for it 2023.  You can reassess after 2023.  The positive is that, while not trying to be morbid, if the Sox were to strip it down after 23 or 24, and got thru a multiple year rebuild, by the time they're trying to contend again there is better than a decent chance JR is no longer running the White Sox. 

As I said before, you don't really have a choice.  Tony and his boys burned this down to the ground where there is no value to be had almost anywhere.  You let your most consistent hitter walk for free anyway.  Your best bet for the future is letting your foundational guys see if they can rebound to the point where they are good again and/or worth something again.Maybe one or two of them rebounds and the rest are really done, which gives you the basis for a rebuild.  Maybe things go back to normal because Tony was the worst possible scenario.  Maybe everything really is a 5 standard deviation worst case scenario.  But you don't really have a choice if you want to get the most value out of this mess.

28 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

There is no scenario I would trade Luis Robert right now.  If he goes out and plays 145 games at the pace he was on in 2021, and he's a 7 fWAR player.  Perhaps the most valuable player in the game at that point.  He's controlled for 5 more seasons.  There is no rush to move him coming off whatever that 2nd half of 2022 was.  

An important thing I recognized while going through the ZiPS projections - for Robert to be on the pace of 2021, he needs to be a plus defender. In 2022 he wasn’t. I don’t know if that’s poor spring training preparation or the hip surgery having long term affects or something lingering from that midseason leg injury, but it’s quite important for how good he can be. 

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

An important thing I recognized while going through the ZiPS projections - for Robert to be on the pace of 2021, he needs to be a plus defender. In 2022 he wasn’t. I don’t know if that’s poor spring training preparation or the hip surgery having long term affects or something lingering from that midseason leg injury, but it’s quite important for how good he can be. 

Yeah, I think it is a mix of a health and Tony telling the guys not to over-do it.  I think Luis may have taken that directive the wrong way defensively.  I have a feeling that will change in 2023.  

I will say, Robert did take a bit step back defensively in 21 post-injury versus 20 IMO.   I will admit that is mostly just from the "eye test", but he was far less aggressive following the hip injury in 21.  So he put up those value numbers in 21 while not playing anywhere near as good of defense as he did in 20.  Things fell off again in 22.  

We know he has the ability to be a plus defender in CF.  We definitely need to see that again as opposed to whatever TF saw in 2022.  

15 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

The thing to do coming off of the disaster of 2022 is spend on impact talent and actually address the issues that plagued them on the field and in the locker room.  But the chairman wants to just sit on his hands and wish it all away.  These goons don’t deserve another rebuild, nor should they knowing how the org operates.  It’s s%*# or get off the pot time for JR and he seems to want to keep fence sitting his way to a title.  There is too much talent here not to try, but an org that actually wants to do everything to win would and should know that what they do have isn’t enough. They have to add, and adding from the rubbish bin yet again just isn’t going to cut it. 

Unless I had some good feeling on what the problem was last year, I wouldn't spend a lot on talent either.  If this really is a worst case scenario adding talent to this mess is a gigantic waste of time and resources.  1 year deals, sure.  Top of the market long term deals?  Nah.  The deals I would add would need to be movable.  With there being a non-zero chance of this being a complete failure, don't send good money after bad.  Find some defensive pieces and more innings?  Sure.  You don't want to do anymore harm either.

The Sox either need to s%*# or get off the pot. If they truly trust the talent and think 2022 was a one off, they need to add to try to win. If they want to go their normal conservative route, and not be confident in the roster they have assembled, they shouldn't be shocked when the fanbase follows their lead. 

 

2022 sucked. But they still were .500 with a decent chance to win the division in September.  That'd with LaRussa and most other things going wrong. So I don't think the situation is as dire as some who apparently think the Sox have a 65 win roster. 

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Unless I had some good feeling on what the problem was last year, I wouldn't spend a lot on talent either.  If this really is a worst case scenario adding talent to this mess is a gigantic waste of time and resources.  1 year deals, sure.  Top of the market long term deals?  Nah.  The deals I would add would need to be movable.  With there being a non-zero chance of this being a complete failure, don't send good money after bad.  Find some defensive pieces and more innings?  Sure.  You don't want to do anymore harm either.

If the Sox signed Nimmo and Rodon, and still couldn't get over the top, do you not think those two would be moveable if they wanted to tear it down?  The org as is has nothing to fall back on if they wanted to rebuild and they refuse to play with the big boys in FA, so they are stuck in between.  A middling approach accomplishes little in my eyes.  I struggle to see how stop-gap additions amounts to anything more than punting another season in this so called window.  

 

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

If the Sox signed Nimmo and Rodon, and still couldn't get over the top, do you not think those two would be moveable if they wanted to tear it down?  The org as is has nothing to fall back on if they wanted to rebuild and they refuse to play with the big boys in FA, so they are stuck in between.  A middling approach accomplishes little in my eyes.  I struggle to see how stop-gap additions amounts to anything more than punting another season in this so called window.  

 

At full market contracts with their injury histories?  That is big time risk.